approach to bringing in certainty to input volatility grain asia 2010 conferencemumbai
TRANSCRIPT
NEW AVTAAR!!!!
HONEY I SHRUNK!!
And
CHICAGO WHEAT FUTURES PRICE DISTRIBUTION: 2000-2009
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
FUTURES PRICE RANGE
% O
F T
IME
CHICAGO WHEAT FUTURES PRICE DISTRIBUTION: 2000-2009
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
FUTURES PRICE RANGE
% O
F T
IME
Incremental Population Growth & Incremental Required Food grain production
Year Population Billion Annual incrase
Actual Addition
al Numbers
( Million)
Prescribed Minimum Food grain quantity
KG per person/annum
Additional Food Grain Required
(MMT)
Actual Increase in Food grain production
Gross Surplus/Deficit in Food grain
Requirement MMT
2001 1,02,87,37,436 1.15% 11.83 184 2.18 -16.04 -18.22
2002 1.15% 11.97 184 2.20 38.07 35.87
2003 1.15% 12.10 184 2.23 -38.41 -40.64
2004 1.15% 12.24 184 2.25 14.83 12.58
2005 1.15% 12.38 184 2.28 -10.23 -12.51
2006 1.15% 12.53 184 2.30 -8.69 -10.99
2007 1.15% 12.67 184 2.33 -13.5 -15.83
2008 1.15% 12.82 184 2.36 -3.1 -5.46
2009 1.15% 12.96 184 2.39 15.88 13.49
Efficient Frontier
“Inefficient Portfolio”
Point A
Point B
Point C
Risk (variability in returns)
Risk (variability in cost)
Efficient Frontier
“Inefficient Portfolio”
Co
st
Point C
Point B
Point A
04/10/23 confidential 20
“Come gather 'round people, wherever you roamAnd admit that the waters around you have grownAnd accept it that soon you'll be drenched to the
bone.If your time to you is worth savin'
Then you better start swimmin‘ or you'll sink like a stone For the times they are a-changin'.”
Bob Dylan