anso q1 2012reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/anso... · 2012. 6. 6. · aog a...
TRANSCRIPT
ANSO and our donors accept no liability for the results of any activity conducted or omitted on
the basis of this report. -Not for copy or sale-
(c) INSO 2012
AOG a ack volumes have decreased by 43% in comparison to Q1 2011 providing the first reliable indicator that the
conflict may be entering a period of regression a er years of sustained, and compounded, growth by all actors in
the field. Despite this, one must s ll consider them an ascendant power, as they themselves clearly do, and a key
ques on remains as to whether this lack of ac vity is a deliberate act and if so, why. As last year was characterised
by AOG doing more earlier; this year has begun with them doing less later.
Of course, the same could be said for all actors in the field, as this years comprehensive incident volumes are 32%
lower than Q1 2011, sugges ng a level of synergy between the various par es to the conflict. An excep on to this
would be the ANSF, who are increasingly shouldering a heavier burden as the ISAF presence wanes, all part of the
ongoing processes of withdrawal and transi on. There are hints that this fundamental shi in responsibility may
result in posi ve developments, par cularly at the tac cal level. This apparent willingness between the remaining
players to reach local agreements may ul mately result in a broader space within which the NGO community is able
to operate, as the volume of ac vely contested space shrinks.
However, it may be some me for this to be fully realised as current NGO incident volumes remain aligned to long
term rate trends, though the authors of those incidents have shi ed into line with present dynamics, as criminality
had the greatest impact this quarter. In the majority of such cases, this criminality was financially mo vated at
both the individual and group levels, an early indicator that compe on over the diminishing pool of resources
ahead of 2014 may come to have a significant impact on the NGO safety context.
While some dynamics from this period should be met with cau ous op mism, this must be tempered by close
analysis of others that came into play last year, for example the upsurge in criminality, which con nue into this
period and provide early warning signs of new troubles on the horizon. The prolifera on of irregular mili as, an
element that may be feeding into this trouble, con nues to further complicate an already complex opera onal
environment. At best it disrupts exis ng, and at mes fragile, power sharing agreements at the local level and at
worst, it results in open conflict that impacts NGO accessibility due to road insecurity and a lack of clarity of who to
engage.
Ul mately, the first quarter of this year raises more ques ons than it answers by providing numerous indicators of
the increasingly fluid nature of the conflict. A new phase in the evolu on of the context is being realised, though
how this will play out in the coming months, and years, is unclear and only with further analysis of the interplay
between the various groups will this new reality become apparent.
Nathan Ronaldson, ANSO Director
Kabul, Afghanistan, 2012
SUMMARY & ASSESSMENT
1s t J an ‐ 31s t Mar 2012
The views expressed in this report remain the sole responsibility of the author.
QUARTERLY DATA REPORT Q.1 2012
Page 2 QUARTERLY DATA REPORT Q.1 2012
Part 1.Part 1.
Context OverviewContext Overview
Page 3 QUARTERLY DATA REPORT Q.1 2012
1 . 1 C o n t e x t O v e r v i e w
The graph above is meant to provide a holis c view of the context in which the humanitarian community
finds themselves working in as of 2012. The further disaggrega on of this data in the graph below
provides a clear indicator that, at least un l recently, the momentum and ini a ve of the conflict
remained firmly in the hands of the opposi on, and that for all sides last year was the most vigorous on
record. In this quarter however, it would appear that all actors, with the possible excep on of the ANSF
(insert chart below), appear to be taking an opera onal pause. However, the reality is that the interplay
of an increasing number of compe ng armed actors, irrespec ve of their mandate or purpose, has
resulted in a progressively more complex and vola le environment for NGOs to navigate.
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
JAN
FEB
MA
RA
PR
MA
YJU
NJU
LA
UG
SEP
TO
CT
NO
VD
ECJA
NFE
BM
AR
AP
RM
AY
JUN
JUL
AU
GSE
PT
OC
TN
OV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MA
RA
PR
MA
YJU
NJU
LA
UG
SEP
TO
CT
NO
VD
ECJA
NFE
BM
AR
AP
RM
AY
JUN
JUL
AU
GSE
PT
OC
TN
OV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MA
RA
PR
MA
YJU
NJU
LA
UG
SEP
TO
CT
NO
VD
ECJA
NFE
BM
AR
AP
RM
AY
JUN
JUL
AU
GSE
PT
OC
TN
OV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MA
R
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
ANSO: Total security incidents, countrywide, 2006‐2012(count includes all incident types, criminal & conflict related, all authors)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
JAN
FEB
MA
RA
PR
MA
YJU
NJU
LA
UG
SEP
TO
CT
NO
VD
EC JAN
FEB
MA
RA
PR
MA
YJU
NJU
LA
UG
SEP
TO
CT
NO
VD
EC JAN
FEB
MA
RA
PR
MA
YJU
NJU
LA
UG
SEP
TO
CT
NO
VD
EC JAN
FEB
MA
RA
PR
MA
YJU
NJU
LA
UG
SEP
TO
CT
NO
VD
EC JAN
FEB
MA
RA
PR
MA
YJU
NJU
LA
UG
SEP
TO
CT
NO
VD
EC JAN
FEB
MA
RA
PR
MA
YJU
NJU
LA
UG
SEP
TO
CT
NO
VD
EC JAN
FEB
MA
R
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
AOG
ANSF
ISAF
Criminal
ANSO: Conflict activity comparison, countrywide, by author, 2006‐2012
38%
40%
14% 8%
AOG
ANSF
ISAF
Criminal
ANSO: Q1 2012 activity volumes, by author
Page 4 QUARTERLY DATA REPORT Q.1 2012
1 . 2 I n c i d e n t D i s t r i b u t i o n & C o m p a r i s o n
This table provides a comparison of the various actors ac vity levels, expressed as a percentage of the
total, which itself is a complete accoun ng of all incidents recorded per province in Q1. When using this
for analysis, readers are encouraged to take into account the Incident Total column as this will provide a
be er understanding regarding the actors rela ve ac vity levels. While some sectors could be viewed as
having a posi ve/nega ve impact on security, the data provides an overview of how ‘contested’ certain
areas are; not surprisingly those areas in the top 2 categories account for almost 80% of the NGO incident
total this quarter. However, this chart should not be used alone, as an analysis of local dynamics and
atmospherics must also be taken into considera on when assessing NGO safety and accessibility.
PROVINCE NGO
INCIDENTS INCIDENT TOTAL
%AOG %IMF %ANSF %Crime
Khost 4 490 38% 26% 29% 7%
>200 Incidents
Kandahar 1 438 37% 7% 52% 4%
Nangarhar 5 419 32% 14% 43% 11%
Helmand 0 394 36% 28% 35% 1%
Kunar 0 310 82% 6% 9% 3%
Herat 3 214 19% 1% 67% 13%
Ghazni 0 186 52% 27% 18% 3%
100‐199 Incidents Kabul 3 182 1% 3% 79% 17%
Paktika 0 159 56% 22% 20% 2%
Uruzgan 0 156 42% 8% 48% 2%
Farah 0 154 46% 3% 46% 5%
Badghis 0 135 54% 4% 35% 7%
Faryab 3 116 49% 4% 26% 21%
Zabul 0 108 20% 26% 54% 0%
Balkh 0 85 19% 1% 46% 34%
50‐99 Incidents
Kunduz 0 84 15% 11% 57% 17%
Laghman 1 80 52% 9% 28% 11%
Logar 1 69 29% 29% 36% 6%
Paktya 1 66 24% 40% 27% 9%
Kapisa 0 65 59% 12% 26% 3%
Baghlan 0 62 24% 11% 49% 16%
Wardak 1 60 25% 28% 42% 5%
Takhar 0 39 10% 3% 67% 20%
< 50 Incidents
Nimroz 0 38 26% 16% 47% 11%
Jawzjan 1 37 32% 11% 35% 22%
Parwan 0 27 18% 4% 52% 26%
Badakhshan 0 26 30% 9% 39% 22%
Ghor 0 24 29% 4% 34% 33%
Nuristan 0 21 76% 5% 19% 0%
Samangan 0 21 10% 0% 52% 38%
Sar‐e Pul 0 20 50% 10% 15% 25%
Daykundi 0 10 10% 10% 30% 50%
Bamyan 0 5 40% 0% 60% 0%
Panjshir 0 2 0% 0% 50% 50%
Page 5 QUARTERLY DATA REPORT Q.1 2012
Part 2.Part 2.
State of the ConflictState of the Conflict
Aug: 335Jul: 405
Aug: 634
Presidential ElectionsAug: 1093
Parlimentary ElectionsSept: 1541
Jul: 1713
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
JAN
FEB
MA
RA
PR
MA
YJU
NJU
LA
UG
SEP
TO
CT
NO
VD
ECJA
NFE
BM
AR
AP
RM
AY
JUN
JUL
AU
GSE
PT
OC
TN
OV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MA
RA
PR
MA
YJU
NJU
LA
UG
SEP
TO
CT
NO
VD
ECJA
NFE
BM
AR
AP
RM
AY
JUN
JUL
AU
GSE
PT
OC
TN
OV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MA
RA
PR
MA
YJU
NJU
LA
UG
SEP
TO
CT
NO
VD
ECJA
NFE
BM
AR
AP
RM
AY
JUN
JUL
AU
GSE
PT
OC
TN
OV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MA
R
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
ANSO: Total AOG activity, countrywide, 2006‐2012
Page 6 QUARTERLY DATA REPORT Q.1 2012
2 . 1 A r m e d O p p o s i t i o n G r o u p ( A O G ) A c t i v i t y
For the first me in 6 years the AOG a ack growth rate
marked a period of regression, for a considerable 74%
decrease this quarter (insert chart above). This breaks the
established trend in which opposi on groups built on their
gains, in both geography and capacity, year on year. With
last year marking a watershed for the conflict as all actors
had their most ac ve on record (see sec on 1.1), it may be
the case that efforts applied by security forces are now
having an effect on AOG tac cal capacity. However, one
must also factor into the analysis that this winter was the
harshest in many years, a reality that clearly impacted all
sides ability to operate, par cularly when considering opposi on supply lines. Of course, there could also
be an element of unwillingness to commit resources on a fight that is all but over. The final piece of this
puzzle is the reality that the conflict is slowly taking on a more poli cal structure as dialogue and talks
begin to feature more heavily ahead of 2014. The primary ques on at present is if this regression has
been chosen or forced, a ques on that will only be fully answered as the year progresses.
Despite the downturn the tac cal por olio has remained
rela vely consistent, as opposi on a ack volumes
expand and contract seasonally while the composi on
remains consistent in regards to the percentage by tac c.
As such, conven onal a acks (SAF, RPG, etc) con nue to
be the key expression at a tac cal level, followed by IED
and indirect fire a acks (chart right).
39%
36%
12%
6%5% 2%
EAST
SOUTH
WEST
NORTH
CENTRAL
NORTHEAST
ANSO:Q1 2012 AOG attack distribution, by region
28%39%
46%
27%35%
‐74%
‐100%
‐80%
‐60%
‐40%
‐20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
ANSO:Q1 AOG attack growth rate over previous year
0 200 400 600 800 1000
Robberies
Suicide Attacks
Intimidation Efforts
Abductions
Indirect Fire Attacks
IED Strikes
Conventional Attacks
ANSO: Q1 2012 AOG attack composition, total volume by tactic
Page 7 QUARTERLY DATA REPORT Q.1 2012
2 . 2 A O G A t t a c k R a t e M a p p i n g
This map shows the AOG ini ated a ack count, per province, as of the end of the first quarter. As with
the retrac on in the growth rate countrywide, one can also see a clear downturn in AOG ac vity in those
areas where their opera onal footprint, and support base, has been limited in the past. This is
par cularly true for the northern ‘beachhead’ of Kunduz & Baghlan, which are repor ng their lowest
quarterly volume in years. The opposite to this would be in Faryab, which when taken along with
Badghis, note a con guous and ac ve opera onal area and the ‘3rd front’ for this period.
Not unlike the 1st quarter of last year, the ’2nd front’ of Loya Paktya/Ghazni con nues to factor heavily
into the conflict, with Khost accoun ng for both the second highest AOG and NGO incident volumes (see
4.2). The border lands in the East account for the most heavily contested terrain in the country at
present, and while this can be partly explained by seasonal limita ons, it may also be the result of the
planned ‘quaran ne’ of these areas by ISAF forces last year. Ostensibly, security forces act as a dam,
keeping AOG contained into a limited ba le space, which would appear to explain why incident volumes
drop precipitously in their neighboring provinces. As the South represents the most mature theatre in
the conflict (the ‘1st front’), it con nues to report generous incident levels, though the suicide a ack
campaign in Kandahar City this quarter represents the most significant manifesta on there.
HELMAND 143 NIMROZ
10 KANDAHAR 161
URUZGAN 66 ZABUL
22
PAKTIKA 91
GHAZNI 96
FARAH 71
HERAT 40
BADGHIS 73
GHOR 7 DAYKUNDI
1
BAMYAN 2
FARYAB 57
KHOST 188
BADAKSHAN 7
BALKH 16
JAWZJAN 12
KUNDUZ 13
SAMANGAN 2 BAGHLAN
15
WARDAK 15 KABUL 2
PARWAN 5
NANGAHAR 135
ANSO: AOG attack volumes, per province at Q1 2012(Please note this is an incident ratemap that enables comparison of areas seeing similar attack rates. It is not a threat map and a lack of incidents can indicate AOG dominance (see Nuristan). Areas shaded green are not implied to be safe, particularly those provinces bordered by highly insecure areas.
Area of special concern
+ 200 Attacks
100 ‐ 199 Attacks
50 ‐ 99 Attacks
20 ‐ 49 Attacks
Less than 20 attacks
No AOG activity recorded
Page 8 QUARTERLY DATA REPORT Q.1 2012
2 . 3 I n t e r n a t i o n a l M i l i t a r y F o r c e s ( I M F )
Accep ng that ANSO data is not as comprehensive at the tac cal level as other sources, it nonetheless
provides insight on broader and longer term trends in regards to IMF ac vity (graph above). While this
quarter is the first to iden fy a significant reduc on in AOG a ack levels, contrary to the aggressive ISAF
messaging campaign of last year, the sustainability and purpose of this reduc on remains in ques on.
The progression of this year will note a shrinking ISAF footprint, with transi on Tranche II completed this
quarter and the third to be announced shortly. From a prac cal perspec ve, this means that the IMF
ability to prosecute the conflict at a tac cal level will decrease considerably this year and will ul mately
become more focused as a result. In addi on, a key element of this will involve a shi ing focus to special
opera ons (such as night raids), and to some extent airstrikes (insert chart above), as these will become
the key force mul pliers provided to the ever expanding role of the ANSF. However, despite this ongoing
reduc on, NGO incidents a ributed to interna onal forces were an issue throughout last year,
par cularly in the East, par cularly clinic searches (presumably by special forces) and collateral damage
being during armed clashes.
The chart le iden fies where recorded IMF ac vity took place this
period, and when taken along with the map in 2.2, one can gain
insight as to the shape of the conflict as the year progresses; clearly
focused in the East and South. That Central accounts for the third
highest volume is telling, indica ng that ISAF is pu ng a clear effort
in minimizing the conflict’s impact in and around the capital. It is
also likely that the most vola le areas at present will be the last to
transi on, though as the interna onal military withdraws, so too
does the key impetus for AOG momentum. As IEA messaging iden fies, it is the presence of these forces
which has been a key driver of the conflict, so this year will be cri cal for assessing the evolu on of the
context in regards to the interplay between these two actors.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
JAN
FEB
MA
RA
PR
MA
YJU
NJU
LA
UG
SEP
TO
CT
NO
VD
EC JAN
FEB
MA
RA
PR
MA
YJU
NJU
LA
UG
SEP
TO
CT
NO
VD
EC JAN
FEB
MA
RA
PR
MA
YJU
NJU
LA
UG
SEP
TO
CT
NO
VD
EC JAN
FEB
MA
RA
PR
MA
YJU
NJU
LA
UG
SEP
TO
CT
NO
VD
EC JAN
FEB
MA
RA
PR
MA
YJU
NJU
LA
UG
SEP
TO
CT
NO
VD
EC JAN
FEB
MA
RA
PR
MA
YJU
NJU
LA
UG
SEP
TO
CT
NO
VD
EC JAN
FEB
MA
R
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
ANSO: Total recorded ISAF activity, countrywide, 2006‐2012
33000 US 'surge' troops deployed
45%
39%
9%
2% 3% 2%
SOUTH
EAST
CENTRAL
WEST
NORTHEAST
NORTH
ANSO:Q1 2012 IMF activity by region
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
ANSO:Q1 2006‐2012 IMF airstrikes, countrywide
Page 9 QUARTERLY DATA REPORT Q.1 2012
2 . 4 A f g h a n N a t i o n a l S e c u r i t y F o r c e s ( A N S F )
The trend line in the above graph, which includes incidents a ributed to regular police (all types) and
army units along with ALP, gives a clear indicator the impact transi on and withdrawal is having on the
ANSF opera onal tempo, with Tranche II of transi on completed by the conclusion of this quarter. As
na onal forces become responsible for an ever increasing amount of terrain, their interna onal
counterparts con nue to downsize, and the ALP program con nues to expand, the disparity between
ISAF/ANSF ac vity levels is likely to increase through this year.
Unlike the IMF footprint, the ANSF one is a bit more diffused,
though it nonetheless appears greatest in those areas most
affected by the conflict (chart right). This broader distribu on
can be par ally explained by the pervasive presence of the ANP
(who account for 75% of all recorded ANSF ac vity) as well the
ever increasing presence of irregular mili as (incl. ALP), which
factor heavily into the transi on/withdrawal process. Due to
the limited understanding of these forces, par cularly regarding
presence, allegiance and oversight, their impact on the context
cannot be clearly assessed. However, it is understood that their
impact is not always a posi ve one, as illustrated by cases of
local resistance to their deployment, generally because of poorly
defined control mechanisms and disrup ons they have on
exis ng power dynamics.
As ANSF (thus ANP) efforts are consumed by the conflict, their
ability to manage criminality is degraded, a dynamic which is
further explored in Part 3 (chart right).
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
JAN
FEB
MA
RA
PRM
AY
JUN
JUL
AU
GSE
PTO
CTN
OV
DEC JAN
FEB
MA
RA
PRM
AY
JUN
JUL
AU
GSE
PTO
CTN
OV
DEC JAN
FEB
MA
RA
PRM
AY
JUN
JUL
AU
GSE
PTO
CTN
OV
DEC JAN
FEB
MA
RA
PRM
AY
JUN
JUL
AU
GSE
PTO
CTN
OV
DEC JAN
FEB
MA
RA
PRM
AY
JUN
JUL
AU
GSE
PTO
CTN
OV
DEC JAN
FEB
MA
RA
PRM
AY
JUN
JUL
AU
GSE
PTO
CTN
OV
DEC JAN
FEB
MA
R
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
ANSO: Total recorded ANSF activity, countrywide, 2006‐2012
34%
23%
14%
16%
7%6%
SOUTH
EAST
CENTRAL
WEST
NORTHEAST
NORTH
ANSO:Q1 2012 Total ANSF activity, by region
1%
5%7%
24%
63%
Anti‐Crime Op
Conflict Op
Criminal Arrest
AOG Arrest
IED Finds
ANSO:Q1 2012 Total ANSF activity, by type, countrywide
Page 10 QUARTERLY DATA REPORT Q.1 2012
Part 3.Part 3.
CriminalityCriminality
0
50
100
150
200
250
JAN
FEB
MA
RA
PR
MA
YJU
NJU
LA
UG
SEP
TO
CT
NO
VD
ECJA
NFE
BM
AR
AP
RM
AY
JUN
JUL
AU
GSE
PT
OC
TN
OV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MA
RA
PR
MA
YJU
NJU
LA
UG
SEP
TO
CT
NO
VD
ECJA
NFE
BM
AR
AP
RM
AY
JUN
JUL
AU
GSE
PT
OC
TN
OV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MA
RA
PR
MA
YJU
NJU
LA
UG
SEP
TO
CT
NO
VD
ECJA
NFE
BM
AR
AP
RM
AY
JUN
JUL
AU
GSE
PT
OC
TN
OV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MA
R
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
ANSO: Total recorded criminal ctivity, countrywide, 2006‐2012(Count includes all forms of criminal acts such as theft, murder, adbuction and internecine fighting)
Page 11 QUARTERLY DATA REPORT Q.1 2012
3 . 1 C r i m i n a l i t y : O v e r v i e w
Through to 2009 overall levels of criminality noted stable and steady growth (roughly 15% per year),
albeit limited in rela on to the expanding state of the conflict. However, in late 2010 criminal ac vity
grew substan ally un l the peak recorded in August 2011 (graph above); a dynamic in line with the
considerable growth of the conflict during that period as well. Some drivers of this growth included
protracted internecine conflict in the East, banditry along many roads in the North, and a leavening of
opportunis c elements taking advantage of prevailing instability; as police forces were clearly focused on
conflict related ma ers during that me.
The above is sugges ve of a correla on between the
conflict and criminality, as is the reduc on noted in
criminal ac vity between this quarter and Q1 2011 (chart
le ). However, this 15% reduc on in criminal ac vity
could be explained by the rela ve stability in such places
as Kabul, where security forces have been afforded the
space to conduct tradi onal policing ac vi es as a result
of the limited conflict imprint there.
However, when comparing where criminality is occurring the
rela onship is less clear as the East and North accounted for the
highest regional volumes (chart right), with the former greatly
affected by the conflict and the la er to a much lesser degree
this quarter. Criminal rates in the South are undoubtedly
affected by the pervasive IEA presence outside of popula on
centers, as they are able to directly enforce their brand of
jus ce and keep criminal behaviors in check.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
ANSO:2006‐2012 Q1 Criminal incident volume comparison
29%
21%15%
15%
10%
10%EAST
NORTH
WEST
CENTRAL
NORTHEAST
SOUTH
ANSO:Q1 2012 Criminal activity volumes, all types, by region
Page 12 QUARTERLY DATA REPORT Q.1 2012
3 . 2 C r i m i n a l i t y : C a t e g o r y & G e o g r a p h y
From a tac cal perspec ve direct a acks (including SAF &
RPG) featured heavily this period (1st chart le ), primarily
involving the use of small arms to se le interpersonal
disputes. These ac ons resulted in the substan al death toll
of 196 civilians countrywide. Such disputes were also the
leading cause of most stand off a acks (including grenades
& IEDs), though such ac ons were also undertaken to se le
economic disagreements; a dynamic par cularly prevalent
in the East (2nd chart le ).
As the East and North factor heavily in overall criminal
ac vity rates this quarter it is not surprising that this
remains the case when looking at the combined volume of
criminal kine c a acks by region. However, as noted above,
the East is most affected due to a mix of long standing tribal
disputes, honor related ac ons, and both local and cross‐
border economic dynamics. In the North, the inclusion of a
poli cal dynamic into such a acks is common as a result of
various power brokers vying for dominance.
Looking deeper into the East, the provinces of Nangarhar
and Khost combined (both heavily affected by the conflict
this period) accounted for a full quarter of the countrywide
total for criminal a acks this period (3rd chart le ). As
noted, these involved a large amount of kine c ac vity,
including 80% of the IEDs used by criminals this quarter, 3 of
which directly impacted NGOs.
Robberies rounded out the criminal por olio, with banditry
and the during travel accoun ng for 57% of that total, an
element affec ng the North greatest (4th chart le ). It is
highly likely that all types of economically driven ac vity, be
they direct a acks or the , will con nue into this year and
beyond as groups compete for an ever diminishing pool of
resources ahead of 2014.
232
58
34
27
Armed Attacks
Robberies
Abductions
Stand Off Attacks
ANSO:Q1 2012 Criminal activities by type(figures provided mark total count per activity)
0 10 20 30
SOUTH
WEST
NORTHEAST
EAST
CENTRAL
NORTH
STATIC
IN TRANSIT
ANSO:Q1 2012 Robbery by region & type
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
EAST NORTH CENTRAL WEST NORTHEAST SOUTH
ANSO:Q1 2012 Criminal kinetic attacks, by region(kinetic attacks include SAF, RPG, IED & grenades)
0 10 20 30 40
Nuristan
Paktya
Laghman
Kunar
Khost
Nangarhar
ANSO:Q1 2012 Criminal kinetic attacks, Eastern Region(kinetic attacks include SAF, RPG, IED & grenades)
Page 13 QUARTERLY DATA REPORT Q.1 2012
Part 4.Part 4.
NGO TrendsNGO Trends
Page 14 QUARTERLY DATA REPORT Q.1 2012
4 . 1 G e n e r a l N G O I n c i d e n t Tr e n d s
The total of 24 NGO incidents this quarter represents a decrease of 37% in comparison to this period in
2011, for a volume compara ve with 2010 (chart above le ). With criminal acts domina ng, for over 60%
of the total recorded (chart above right), it would be easy to conclude that criminality was having a
greater impact on the NGO community. However, closer evalua on of the data reveals it is the rela vely
limited number of AOG incidents this period which is resul ng in this dynamic. The opposi on typically
accounts for an average 44% of the total NGO incidents during the first quarter, with this year accoun ng
for 25%, likely related to the overall downturn in opposi on ac vity. Though accoun ng for a higher
percentage, the actual number of criminal incidents impac ng NGOs this period is in line with longer term
trends.
While the numbers have fluctuated over the years, it is clear that all actors are capable of impac ng
organisa ons in the field, as a ested by the inclusion of IMF and ANSF a ributed incidents this period in
propor ons similar to those recorded in previous years. However, it is worth no ng that their impact is
limited to specific areas and incident types, such asclinic searches in the vola le provinces in the East and
por ons of Central.
Jul & Sept: 16Sept: 17
Jul: 28Jul: 25
Aug-Oct: 18
Jun: 27
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUNJUL
AUG
SEPT
OCT
NOV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUNJUL
AUG
SEPT
OCT
NOV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUNJUL
AUG
SEPT
OCT
NOV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUNJUL
AUG
SEPT
OCT
NOV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUNJUL
AUG
SEPT
OCT
NOV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUNJUL
AUG
SEPT
OCT
NOV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MAR
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
ANSO: Total NGO Incidents, all authors, countrywide, 2006‐2012(Note:figures in red demark yearly incident peak)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
IMF
ANSF
Crime
AOG
ANSO: Q1 2006‐2012 NGO Incident volume comparison
63%25%
8%
4%
ANSO: Q1 2012 NGO Incidents, by author
Crime
AOG
ANSF
IMF
Page 15 QUARTERLY DATA REPORT Q.1 2012
4 . 2 N G O I n c i d e n t s : G e o g r a p h y & Ty p e
From a loca on perspec ve, a significant change this quarter
is the absence of incidents reported from Ghor and Balkh
which had reported the 1st and 4th highest incidents rates
by the close of 2011. However, as with much of the overall
ac vity recorded this period, NGO incident volumes were
highest in the East, for over 45% of the total (chart le ).
Nangarhar con nues to account for high volumes, finishing
2011 with the 2nd highest volume countrywide and the
highest by the close of this quarter.
There were 5 NGO staff casual es this period. The sole NGO staff fatality, along with the 4 wounded, were
all the result of criminal ac ons and are assessed as being unrelated to their employment. As was the case
last year, na onal staff con nue to suffer the highest casualty rates likely related to exposure due to
volume and presence; though fortunately this year accounts for the lowest Q1 casualty rate since 2009.
As noted, the criminal sphere impacted NGOs greatest this period reflec ng the reality that na onal staff
members are subject to the same risks that face the rest of civil society, though an NGOs higher profile,
and their perceived wealth, plays a part in this as well. As seen in the graph below, robberies accounted
for the greatest number of incidents when grouped by type, for a total similar to that reported in Q1 2011.
As noted in Sec on 3.2, instances of the are most likely to happen during travel and in line with this, 80%
of robberies involving NGOs this quarter occurred in transit.
Furthering analysis of the data provided in the chart below, the use of IEDs was used exclusively by
criminal elements, primarily as a method of in mida on with all instances occurring in the East (Khost‐2,
Nangarhar‐1). It would appear that a key driver behind these a acks is the perceived impact some NGOs
opera ons can have on livelihoods, for example the lucra ve medical sector in this region.
Abduc on rates are also down this period
which fits with the lower than normal
volume of AOG a ributed incidents, as
they typically account for the highest
number of NGO staff abduc ons and
deten ons.
Overall, historical trends show that NGO
incidents are not always in mately
associated to the state of the conflict so
how present dynamics impact the state of
NGO affairs this years remains a key
ques on to be answered.
0 1 2 3 4 5
Jawzjan
Kandahar
Logar
Wardak
Laghman
Paktya
Faryab
Herat
Kabul
Khost
Nangarhar
ANSO: Q1 2012 NGO incidents, provincial distribution
0 2 4 6 8 10
Robbery
Armed Attack
IED
Collateral Damage
Intimidation
Facility Searches
Abduction/Detention
Crime
AOG
ANSF
IMF
ANSO:Q1 2012 NGO incidents by type & actor
Page 16 QUARTERLY DATA REPORT Q.1 2012
REPORT ENDS
For fur ther informat ion [email protected]
This document will be electronically archived at www.ngosafety.org three days after distribution. It may
be reproduced, stored or transmitted without further permission for non-commercial purposes only and with written credit to ANSO and link to www.ngosafety.org
© I N S O , M a r c h 2 0 1 2
‐‐‐‐‐ IMPORTANT INFORMATION ‐‐‐‐‐
ANSO is a project of the Interna onal NGO Safety Organisa on (INSO) of 2 ‐6 Cannon Street, London EC4M 6YH, United Kingdom, a company limited by
guarantee in England and Wales, registra on number 7496737 and a registered charity, number 1140276. Contact INSO at [email protected].
Acronyms:
AOG - Armed Opposition Groups specifically Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (Taliban); Haqqani Network and Hezb-i-Islami Gulbiddin (HIG)
IEA - Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (Taliban)
ALP - Afghan Local Police (militias)
IMF - International Military Forces (specifically ISAF, USFOR-A, PRTs and SOF)
ANSF - Afghan National Security Forces (mostly Police & Army)
IED - Improvised Explosive Device (home made bomb)
IDF - Indirect Fire (rockets, mortars)
CAS - Close Air Support (airstrike)
SAF - Small Arms Fire (from a machine gun such as AK-47)
ANSO REGIONS
For the purposes of this report, please note the following break-down of provinces for the various ANSO Regions:
CENTRAL: Bamyan, Daykundi, Kabul, Kapisa, Logar, Panjshir, Parwan, Wardak
EAST: Khost, Kunar, Laghman, Nangarhar, Nuristan, Paktya
SOUTH: Ghazni, Helmand, Kandahar, Nimroz, Paktika, Uruzgan, Zabul
NORTH: Balkh, Faryab, Jawzjan, Samangan, Sar-e Pul
NORTHEAST: Badakhshan, Baghlan, Takhar, Kunduz