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Anatomy of a Wrongful Arson Conviction

The Arson Research Project 1



Other Causes

77%

Misleading Forensic

Testimony23%

Total U.S. Exonerations

Other Causes

32%

Misleading Forensic

Testimony68%

Arson Exonerations

Other Causes

53%

Misleading Forensic

Testimony47%

DNA Exonerations

Wrongful Arson Convictions Continue

Cognitive Bias

Unreliable Processes and Techniques

Unknown Error Rates

National Registry of Exonerationswww.law.umich.edu/special/exoneration

Innocence Projectwww.innocenceproject.org



Independence

Error Rate

Performance Standards

Standard Methodology

Reliability and Validity

The extent to which a particular forensic discipline is founded on reliable scientific methodology that gives it the capacity to accurately analyze evidence and report findings;

The extent to which practitioners in a particular forensic discipline rely on human interpretation that could be tainted by error, the threat of bias, or the absence of sound operational procedures and robust performance standards.

Pg. 9

National Academy of Science



Reliability = Consistency

Validity = Accuracy

Unreliable andhence not valid

Reliableand Valid

Reliable butnot ValidReliable Reliable Unreliable


“Generally, if the origin cannot be determined, the cause cannot be determined…if the correct origin is not identified, the subsequent cause determination will also be incorrect.”‐NFPA 921 (2014) 18.1, pg 186

The overall methodology for determining the originor cause of the fire is the Scientific Method

Fire Investigation: The process of determining the Origin, Cause and Development of a Fire or Explosion.

Recognize the Need(identify the problem)

Define the Problem

Collect Data

Analyze the Data

Develop a Hypothesis(inductive reasoning)

Test the Hypothesis(deductive reasoning)

Select Final Hypothesis

Origin and Cause

Criminal Investigation of ArsonOpinions of the Investigator are

Generally Not Admissible

Criminal Investigation of Arson

The Application of Reason and Common Sense to the Totality of the Circumstances

ARSON INVESTIGATION IS NOT

Forensic Fire InvestigationExamination and Analysis of Physical and Empirical Evidence Leading to Expert Opinions

Forensic Fire Investigation

The Application of Scientific, Engineering and Technical Principles to the Examination of Physical and Empirical Evidence

FIRE INVESTIGATION IS A FORENSIC DISCIPLINE

Recognize the Need(identify the problem)

Define the Problem

Collect Data

Analyze the Data

Develop a Hypothesis(inductive reasoning)

Test the Hypothesis(deductive reasoning)

Select Final Hypothesis



Flashover Full Room InvolvementFlashoverFree Burning FlashoverFree Burning

Misidentified Area of Origin

Three identical burn cells burned beyond flashover:

30 seconds post flashoverAccuracy rate = 84%



ATF Flashover Exercises2007

53 fire investigators asked to determine

the quadrant of originin a 12’x12’ room

@ 2 minutes post flashover

50 of 53 unable to determine the correct quadrant of origin

@ 2 minutes post flashover, Accuracy rate = 6%

ATF Flashover Exercises2005



Motivated Investigator

Cognitive Bias Danger Zone Cognitive Bias



Forensic Anthropology

GenderIdentification ControlGroup MaleContext FemaleContextMale 31% 71% 0%Female 69% 29% 100%

GenderIdentification ControlGroup MaleContext FemaleContextMale 31% 71% Female 69% 29%

GenderIdentification ControlGroup MaleContext FemaleContextMale 31% Female 69%

GenderIdentification ControlGroup MaleContext FemaleContextMale Female

GenderIdentification ControlGroup MaleContext FemaleContextMale 31% 71% 0%Female 69% 29% 100%RacialAncestry ControlGroup CaucasianContext AsianContextCaucasianAncestry 100% 100% 50%AsianAncestry 0% 0% 29%Undetermined 21%

GenderIdentification ControlGroup MaleContext FemaleContextMale 31% 71% 0%Female 69% 29% 100%RacialAncestry ControlGroup CaucasianContext AsianContextCaucasianAncestry 100% 100% AsianAncestry 0% 0% Undetermined

GenderIdentification ControlGroup MaleContext FemaleContextMale 31% 71% 0%Female 69% 29% 100%RacialAncestry ControlGroup CaucasianContext AsianContextCaucasianAncestry 100% AsianAncestry 0% Undetermined

GenderIdentification ControlGroup MaleContext FemaleContextMale 31% 71% 0%Female 69% 29% 100%RacialAncestry ControlGroup CaucasianContext AsianContextCaucasianAncestry AsianAncestry Undetermined

Forensic Anthropology

Cognitive Bias Danger Zone

Motivated Investigator



1. Underlying reliability is unknown

2. Handler beliefs can effect and influence the outcome

3. The examination is conducted in the field rather than a laboratory

4. The forensic examiner is a member of law enforcement

Accelerant Detecting Canines



…forensic investigations should be independent of law enforcement efforts either to prosecute criminal suspects or even to determine whether a criminal act has indeed been committed.

Page 23

A forensic scientist is not a detective. We repeat, popular television shows to the contrary not withstanding, a forensic scientist is not a detective.

The Daubert/Kumho Implications of Observer Effects in Forensic Science, at 28.



Standard Methodology


Performance Standards

Error Rate

Independence

For more information visit www.TheArsonProject.org

Paul [email protected](408) 772‐2549

anatomy of a wrongful arson conviction...anatomy of a wrongful arson conviction the arson research...

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