An Introduction to Scenario Thinking for African-Americans

By Gerald Harris

What is Scenario Thinking?Scenario thinking (or planning) is the art of creating plausible and diverse views of the future. It is a well thought-out “what if” process that is used to stretch thinking, and generate inquiry and learning. With the scenarios in mind, plans, actions or strategies can be tested against the scenarios to get better insights and to make more robust decisions. New options for actions might also emerge.

Why should African-Americans use scenario thinking?•The leading organizations use scenarios—CIA, large corporations, countries (Singapore, India), large non-profits.

•We live in an uncertain world. Scenarios are a proven tool for moving from reactive to proactive planning.

•Being surprised by changing conditions can be expensive and lead to big set backs.

•Scenarios create language which can aid in communicating about the future.

Social and Political Change

Technological Changes

Expected Future

Emergent Future

Economic Changes

Scenarios help you think about the larger forces and how they can lead to worlds you don’t expect.

•Acceptance of Diversity and Social Cohesion•Evolution of U.S. Labor Markets•Changes in the U.S. Education system•Developments in African American Culture•The Course of U.S. Economic Growth•Emergence and Proliferation of Technology•Position of U.S. as a global power

Key forces that tend of matter most to African-Americans

Last 200 Years: Economic Structure

Agricultural Age Industrial Age Service Age Information/Knowledge Age

Characteristics:

• Labor-intensive

•Tied to nature

• Local

• Wealth by birthright

Characteristics:

• Capital-intensive

• Less labor- intensive/unit output

• Extracting power from nature (oil, coal)

• Destructive of nature

• National

• Wealth tied to capital access

Characteristics:

•Infrastructure-intensive

• Less capital- intensive/unit output

•Less labor- intensive/unit output

•More energy-efficient

•Destructive of nature

•National/international

•Wealth tied to productive use of infrastructure

Characteristics:

•More infrastructure-efficient

•Less capital-intensive/unit output

•Less labor-intensive/unit output

•More energy-efficient

•Less destructive of nature

•Global

•Wealth tied to intellectual property

1800 2000

Big question: Will there be sufficient growth in new industries to provide more jobs than those lost to productivity growth? And what kinds of jobs?

Last 200 Years: Economic Roles for Black People

Agricultural Age Industrial Age Service Age

1800 2000

Information/Knowledge Age

Roles:

• Cheap labor

• Viewed as less than human

Roles:

• Cheap labor

• Used to keep white labor rates low

• Last hired/first fired

• Given lowest quality labor

• Skewed toward men

Roles:

• Cheap labor

• Skewed toward females

• Pushed to bottom jobs

• Little appreciation for knowledge

• Widespread employment discrimination

Roles:

• Stuck in the old economies?

• Owners of the ideas that they (Blacks) exploit?

• Source of ideas to be exploited by others?

• Market for ideas to be sold to?

• ???????

Successful entry into the “New Economy” by African Americans will depend heavily on educational attainment and building “human capital” resources.

Asian/Other/Multi6%

White70%

Black12%

Hispanic/Latino12%

281 million in 2000

A Larger, More Diverse U.S.—Growth of the Hispanic Population

Asian/Other7%

Hispanic/Latino17%

Black13%

White63%

325 million in 2020

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

“Rectangularization” of U.S. Black Population

2020 U.S.: 45 million Black AmericansMale Female

0-45-9

10-1415-19

20-2425-2930-34

35-3940-44

45-4950-5455-59

60-6465-69

70-7475-79

80-8485+

0-45-910-1415-19

20-2425-2930-34

35-3940-44

45-4950-54

55-5960-64

65-6970-74

75-7980-8485+

2 1 1 2

Millions of PeopleSource: U.S. Census Bureau, Middle Projection

2000 U.S. Census: 35 million Black AmericansMale Female

0-45-9

10-1415-19

20-2425-29

30-3435-39

40-4445-49

50-5455-59

60-6465-69

70-7475-79

80-8485+

0-45-9

10-1415-19

20-2425-2930-34

35-3940-44

45-4950-54

55-5960-64

65-6970-74

75-7980-8485+

2 1 1 2

Millions of PeopleSource: U.S. Census Bureau

• Between 1990 and 2020, the number of Black boys, ages 5-19,is projected to increase by 25%, from 4 million to 5 million.

But because of population aging, they will become a smaller proportionof Black Americans—from 14% in 2000 to 11% in 2020. This means that

in 2020, there will be about 4 adults aged 30-65 per boy aged 5-19;in 2000, there were only about 3.

4.7 million boys 5-19 yrs14% of all Black Americans

5 million boys 5-19 yrs11% of all Black Americans

48% 52% 48% 52%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Pre-determined ElementsToday’s Teacher Demographics:

•84% White

•75% Women/25% men

•7.6% Black

•5.6% Hispanic

•Student body: 40% ethnic minorities nationally, higher in some states(e.g., Texas, California)

•New teachers: 66% are 27 years old or younger, 42% just left college—NEA

Recent research on Black College and University Attendance

There is an increasing level of Black college and University attendance:

Attendance Blacks in colleges and universities

1980 2000

19% 30%

28% 39%

18 to 24 year olds

Complete High School

Rates for Whites was 44% in 2000

In 1999- 2000 Black women composed 63% of all Blacks attending college. Only 4.2% of all Black graduates were in Engineering. (Source: National Center for Education Statistics, 2003 report)

Women will have the opportunity, the power, and the resources to reshape America. Not only in the class room, but across the board.

Who might be the next Susan B. Anthony or Rosa Parks?

Can we all get along?—reprint from May, 2003 Harvard Magazine

Key Drivers: Important and Uncertain

One way to create scenarios is to chose two key drivers of change and select them as most important and uncertain in terms of their impact on the future. For example developments in Social Cohesion and the course of the U.S. economy might matter most to African-Americans.

Key Drivers and Uncertainty

Acceptance of Diversity and Social Cohesion

Openness

Tolerance

Care for others

Closed

Intolerant

Fear of others

Course of Economic Growth

Fast

Global

Open Trade

Slow

Restricted

Trade Blocks

These drivers are uncertain and can have big impacts on African Americans. Combing these can create a scenario framework.

Future of African-Americans Sample Scenario Framework

Accepting Diversity Social Cohesion in U.S.

Cou

rse

of

Eco

nom

ic G

row

th

Fast/Global

Slow/Trade Blocks

Openness

Accepting

Closed

Fearful

Long Black BoomRich Get Richer

The Great Deflation

Simple Living in America

Thinking about multiple futures

Good scenario development demands sound research and analysis. Researching what is going on behind the key drivers is key to learning and understanding potential developments at a deeper level.

Good scenarios also contain good story elements, language, and plot lines to make them memorable and understandable. The summaries below are just some possible ideas of what could go on in the four worlds above.

“Rich Get Richer Scenario Summary”

• Social splits arise in America between income classes, this crosses racial lines as the Black community splits along income lines also.

• Economic growth continues at a strong pace in the U.S. and the world, but in ways that supports economic efficiency and not social justice.

• Communications, computer and bio technologies expand into the market place, but get ahead of social systems. Integrating the new changes into society becomes a constant challenge.

• The U.S. maintains its power position through force and military dominance, not by its moral authority or acceptance of its values.

• U.S. labor market are restructured as manufacturing and other low to medium skill technical jobs move to lower wage countries.

• A split arises in the Black community between those assimilated into the dominant culture and middle class, and the lower classes.

“Long Black Boom Scenario Summary”

• There is a turn back toward social justice in the U.S. and wider appreciation of social diversity. Tax system and other changes are made to put more resources into helping the poor.

• Economic growth continues at a strong pace in the U.S. and the world, but in ways that balance economic efficiency with social justice.

• Communications, computer and bio technologies expand into the market place, but with active efforts to integrate the new changes into society with the least harm.

• The U.S. maintains its power position through military dominance but is more constrained in the direct use of force.

• U.S. labor market are restructured as manufacturing and other low to medium skill technical jobs move to lower wage countries. Job losses are buffered in the U.S. through government training and income transition support.

• There is accelerated movement of Blacks into the middle class in the U.S. leading to decreasing remnant in poor urban communities.

“Simple Living In America Summary”• There is a turn back toward social justice in the U.S. and wider appreciation of social

diversity. Tax system and other changes are made to put more resources into helping the poor.

• Economic growth slows significantly in the U.S. and the world as trade tensions grow. However the U.S. turns inward and less involved in wars.

• Communications, computer and bio technologies expand into the market place, but at a slow pace due to slower economic growth and time given for smoother social integration of the technologies.

• The U.S. maintains its power position through military dominance but is more constrained in the direct use of force.

• U.S. labor market are slowly restructured as manufacturing and other low to medium skill technical jobs move to lower wage countries , but only after working through trade barriers and restrictions.

• There is steady movement of Blacks into the middle class in the U.S. leading to decreasing remnant in poor urban communities.

“The Great Deflation Scenario Summary”• Social splits arise in America between income classes, this crosses racial

lines as the Black community splits along income lines also.

• Economic growth slows significantly in the U.S. and the world as trade tension grow and wars raise economic risks and Federal deficits.

• Communications, computer and bio technologies expand into the market place, but at a slow pace due to poor economic conditions.

• The U.S. maintains its power position through force and military dominance, not by its moral authority or acceptance of its values.

• U.S. labor market are slowly restructured as manufacturing and other low to medium skill technical jobs move to lower wage countries , but only after working through trade barriers and restrictions.

• A split arises in the Black community between those assimilated into the dominant culture and middle class, and the lower classes.

Scenarios are not scientifically verifiable predictions of the future!

The four summary scenarios above are what if stories. However, they present radically different opportunities and challenges for African-Americans. They also present different worlds for institutions working to improve conditions in the community. The power of scenarios and futurist thinking is in contemplating various futures and planning more thoughtfully.

From scenarios to strategies and actions

Once a good (challenging) set of scenarios are created they are used by putting you or your organization into them. Suspend disbelief and imagine the conditions in the scenarios are real. Remember you don’t know the future! Living in the worlds ask the following questions. What would you do? What do you wish you had done in advance? What opportunities arise? What risks arise that need to be managed? What preparations can you make now?

Taking control!

Taking control of the future and asserting African-American intelligence and ideas on developments in our communities will take good planning and execution. It will require developing our talents to the fullest and moving beyond fear and doubt.

For more information contact:

Gerald Harris at harrisstrategy@yahoo.com

Contact Information

Contacting Gerald Harris:

Email: harrisstrategy@yahoo.com

Phone: 415-350-1531

Office: 6511 Lucas Ave, Suite 8

Oakland, CA 94611

References provided upon request.