transition to flexible plant operations u.s.a. update · sherry bernhoft epri program manager ....

Sherry Bernhoft EPRI Program Manager

IAEA EDF Technical Meeting on NPP Flexible Operations Paris, France

September 2013

Transition to Flexible Plant Operations U.S.A. Update

2 © 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

EPRI Our History…

• Founded in 1972

• Independent, nonprofit center for public interest energy and environmental research

• Collaborative resource for the electricity sector

• Major offices in Palo Alto, CA; Charlotte, NC; Knoxville, TN – Laboratories in Knoxville,

Charlotte and Lenox, MA Chauncey Starr EPRI Founder

3 © 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Collaboration

U.S. Nuclear Power Plants

Source: NEI Website, 2009

U.S. Participants Non-U.S. Participants Global

Breadth and Depth

• All U.S. nuclear owners/operators

• 102 reactors

• 20 countries, >220 reactors

• >75% of the world’s commercial nuclear units

Participants Encompass Most Nuclear Reactor Designs

4 © 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Presentation Agenda

• Nuclear Power Plants in the U.S. • Challenges

• Growth of Renewals

• Transition Plan for NPP Flexible

Operations

5 © 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Net Electrical Generation in the U.S.

6 © 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Operating Licenses and License Renewal

7 © 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Challenges Facing U.S. Nuclear Power Plants

• Public Acceptance Post-Fukushima

• Economics

• Extending the Plant Operating Licenses – Beyond 60 years

• Large Scale Integration of Renewables

8 © 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Renewables – Today and Tomorrow

• Today ~ 4% of generation from Solar and Wind Power • Expected growth of > 60 GWs by 2022

9 © 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Regional Projection Model for the U.S.

Total Energy

for Load

Imports Solar Geothermal Biomass

Wind Hydro+ Nuclear (New) Nuclear (Existing)

Gas New Coal Environmental Retrofit Existing Coal

0

400

800

1200

1600

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

TWh

0

400

800

1200

1600

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

TWh

0

400

800

1200

1600

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

TWh

0

400

800

1200

1600

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035TW

h

MIDWEST WEST

EAST

SOUTH

Source: PRISM 2.0: The Value of Innovation In Environmental Controls (1026743)

10 © 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

11 © 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Example - Growth of Solar in California

2012 Preliminary Actual 19% of total bundled retail sales

2020 Projected 33% of total bundled retail sales

2002 Actual 11% of total bundled retail sales

Total RPS-Eligible Procurement

~14,000 GWh

Projected RPS-Eligible Procurement

~26,000 GWh

Total RPS-Eligible Procurement

7,504 GWh

12 © 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Projected Impact on Net Generation Lo

ad &

Net

Loa

d (M

W)

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

20,000

22,000

24,000

26,000

28,000

30,000

32,000

34,000

36,000

38,000

40,000

42,000

44,000

46,000

0:00 1:30 3:00 4:30 6:00 7:30 9:00 10:30 12:00 13:30 15:00 16:30 18:00 19:30 21:00 22:30 0:00

Load Net Load Wind Solar

Load, Wind & Solar Profiles – High Load CaseJanuary 2020

Win

d &

Sol

ar (M

W)

8,000 MW in 2 hours

6,300 MW in 2 hours

13,500 MW in 2 hours

8,000 MW in 2 hours

6,300 MW in 2 hours

13,500 MW in 2 hours

Illustrative Load, Wind, & Solar Profiles

Net Load = Total Customer Load – (Wind + Solar Generation) Source:

13 © 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Net Load Pattern Changes 2012-2020

Source: CAISO

14 © 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Success Path For Integration of Renewables

• Early Engagement and Coordination amongst Key Stakeholders

• Planning and Phased Approached to Implantation

• Recognize the ‘Paradigm’ Shift

NPP Owner/Operator

EPRI INPO

Owner Groups

NRC NERC FERC

OEM/NSSS Vendors

Fuel Suppliers

Transmission Grid Operator

15 © 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Transition – Phased Approach

• Phase 1 – Identification of the Concerns

• Phase 2– What is possible based on current plant design?

• Phase 3 –Steps to Increase Flexible Operations

• Phase 4 – R&D to Support Long-Term Asset Management • Phase 5 – Understand the Economics and Plant Enhancements

16 © 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Phase 1- Gap Matrix • Core/Fuel Performance:

– Power density – Fuel performance – Fuel cycle

• Safety Analysis: – Starting point for accidents?

• Low-cycle and High-cycle Fatigue: – Life limiting effects?

• Chemistry/ Source Term Effects • Effluent Management • Equipment ‘Wear and Tear’

– Reduced reliability? • Human Performance Challenges • Cost/Benefit

17 © 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Phase 2 – What is Possible Today

• Define existing operating envelope: – Acceptable ramp rates – Analytical limitations – System/Equipment limitations – Instrumentation/Monitoring

Limitations • Protocol with Independent System

Operator (ISO): – How Frequent – How Fast – How Long – How Deep

• Training for Plant Staff

18 © 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Phase 3 – Increased Maneuverability Needed? • Determine future maneuverability needs • Pinch-point analysis of plant limitations:

– Instrumentation, Monitoring and Controls Systems – Safety Analyses – Operating Practices – Plant modifications

• Cost-benefit analysis

Potential Plant Modifications:

Gray Control Rods

Boron Acid Recycle System

Additional Waste HUTs

Variable Drive Pump Controls

Core Monitoring Instrumentation

19 © 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Phase 4 – Long-Term Asset Management R&D • Fuels and core management:

– Validation of codes for cyclical operations

– Control rod/blades operation • High-cycle and low cycle fatigue

management: – Additional locations impacted – Increased monitoring needed

• Impacts of Flow Induced Vibration (FIV) – Account for effects

• Flow Accelerated Corrosion (FAC) Program changes

• Equipment Wear and Tear: – Guidelines for assessment and

monitoring

Operating Experience for the fossil fleet shows that there is a latency effect in system wear and tear

Intertek Asset Integrity Management (AIM)

20 © 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Phase 5 – Understand the Economics & Plant Enhancements • Develop economic model to understand the

cost of flexible operations: – Direct and indirect costs – Future mix of generations technologies

across a fleet – Feed into the cost of ancillary services

• Evaluate the risks: – Gather data and model into PRAs – Enhancement in Human Performance

• Plant Enhancements: – On-line monitoring systems for dynamic

plant operation – On-line fatigue and vibration monitoring – Improvements in Chemistry and water

management schemes

21 © 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Next Steps

• Early 2014 Products – Gap Matrix – High-level guidelines to support

planning for the transition

• Utility Advisory Group – Support direction of R&D for

long-term asset management – Scoping and prioritization of

plant enhancements

22 © 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Together…Shaping the Future of Electricity

23 © 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Renewable Portfolio Standard Policies..

www.dsireusa.org / March 2013.

29 states,+ Washington DC and 2

territories,have Renewable Portfolio

Standards (8 states and 2 territories have

renewable portfolio goals).