the labor market situation in october, department of labor, dr. shierholz

The Labor Market Situation in October

November 12, 2014

Heidi Shierholz, Ph.D. Chief Economist

UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

1 1 Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy 1

Total nonfarm employment increased 214,000

1-month change, in thousands • October 2014 214 • September 2014 256 • August 2014 203

12-month change, in thousands • September 2013 to 2014: 2,643 • Average: 220

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics www.bls.gov/ces

2 2 Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy 2

Private sector employment increased 209,000

1-month change, in thousands • October 2014 209 • September 2014 244 • August 2014 200

12-month change, in thousands • September 2013 to 2014: 2,583 • Average: 215

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics www.bls.gov/ces

3 3 Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy 3

Employment growth by super-sector this month

Over-the-month employment change, October 2014, seasonally adjusted, in thousands

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics www.bls.gov/ces *denotes significance

0.4%

0.2%

0.2%

0.2%

0.1%

0.3%

0.2%

0.1%

0.0%

0.0%

0.1%

0.1%

0.1%

-0.1% -4

0

1

3

3

5

9

12

13

15

27

37

41

52

-15.0 0.0 15.0 30.0 45.0 60.0

Information

Utilities

Mining and Logging*

Other Services

Financial Activities

Government

Wholesale Trade

Construction

Transportation and Warehousing

Manufacturing

Retail Trade*

Professional and Business Services

Education and Health Services*

Leisure and Hospitality*

Over-the-month employment change, October 2013, seasonally adjusted, in thousands

1-Month Net Change

Prior 12-month average

*denotes significance

4 4 Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy 4

Unemployment rounded down, Long-term unemployment was unchanged

Civilian unemployment rate, by duration of unemployment, January 1990 to September 2014, seasonally adjusted

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey www.bls.gov/cps

5 5 Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy 5

Labor force participation steady since October 2013

October 2014: 62.8 % September 2014: 62.7 % August 2014: 62.8 % October 2013: 62.8 %

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey www.bls.gov/cps

Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate, January 1990 to October 2014, seasonally adjusted

6 6 Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy 6

Employment rate age 25 to 54, essentially flat this month significantly up from October 2013

Employment to Population October 2014: 76.9 % September 2014: 76.7 % August 2014: 76.8 % October 2013: 75.5 %

Employment-to-Population Ratio and Labor Force Participation, age 25 to 54, January 1990 to September 2014, seasonally adjusted

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey www.bls.gov/cps

Labor Force Participation October 2014: 80.8 % September 2014: 80.7 % August 2014: 81.1 % October 2013: 80.6 %

7 7 Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy 7

What’s going on with part-time employment?

Part time for economic reasons, as a percent of total employment, seasonally adjusted, 2004 to 2014

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey www.bls.gov/cps

8 8 Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy 8

2.2 million jobseekers found employment, 2.1 million dropped out of the labor force

Labor Force Status Flows out of Unemployment, January 1990 to October 2014, seasonally adjusted

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey www.bls.gov/cps

9 9 Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy 9

Hourly earnings growth has remained flat at 2.0%, but low inflation has resulted in some small real wage growth

Average hourly earnings, all private sector employees, January 2007 to October 2014, seasonally adjusted

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics, www.bls.gov/ces

10 10 Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy 10

Gulf War II-era Veterans have elevated unemployment rates

Unemployment Rate for Veterans 2009 to 2014, 12-month moving average not seasonally adjusted

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey www.bls.gov/cps

11 11 Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy 11

Young Veterans in particular face challenges

Unemployment Rate for Veterans age 20 to 24 2009 to 2014, 12-month moving average not seasonally adjusted

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey www.bls.gov/cps

12 12 Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy 12

Gulf War-era II women’s unemployment rate similar to men’s for that era

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey www.bls.gov/cps

Unemployment Rate for Veterans by period of service and gender 2013 annual averages

Dr. Heidi Shierholz Chief Economist

UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF LABOR