still emerging from the great recession university of north texas center for economic development...

Still Emerging from the Great Recession

University of North TexasCenter for Economic Development and Research

http://cedr.unt.edu

April 2014

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

U. S. Real GDP GrowthAnnual Percentage Change

'88

'89

'90

'91

'92

'93

'94

'95

'96

'97

'98

'99

'00

'01

'02

'03

'04

'05

'06

'07

'08

'09

'10

'11

'12

'13

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8% 2013:1.9%

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Real Economic GrowthGross domestic product

4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q-9%

-7%

-5%

-3%

-1%

1%

3%

5%

7%

’09 2010 2011 2012 2013

4Q 2013:3.2%

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

2012 2013 2014

Nonfarm PayrollsMonthly change, in thousands

M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M-400

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

Mar. 2014:192,000

Nonfarm Payrolls 2008-PresentMonthly change, in thousands

Jan-08

FMAMJJASONDJan-09

FMAMJJASONDJan-10

FMAMJJASONDJan-11

FMAMJJASONDJan-12

FMAMJJASONDJan-13

FMAMJJASONDJan-14

FM-900-800-700-600-500-400-300-200-100

0100200300400500

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

2012 2013 2014

M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M0

25

50

75

100

Source: Challenger, Gray and Christmas

Human SacrificeNumber of layoff announcements in the U. S. (in thousands)

March ’14:34,399

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

0255075

100125150175200225250

Source: Challenger, Gray and Christmas

Human Sacrifice 2008-PresentNumber of layoff announcements in the U. S. (in thousands)

U. S. Jobless RateSeasonally adjusted

M A M J J A S O N D J F M6.00%

6.20%

6.40%

6.60%

6.80%

7.00%

7.20%

7.40%

7.60%

March ’14:6.7%

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

2013 2014

F M A M J J A S O N D J F$13.0

$13.5

$14.0

$14.5

$15.0

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; Bureau of Economic Analysis

Feb. ’14:$14.4 trillion

2013 2014

Personal IncomeTotal personal income in trillions of dollars, before taxes, at seasonally adjusted annual rates

20002001

20022003

20042005

20062007

20082009

20102011

20122013

$8.0

$9.0

$10.0

$11.0

$12.0

$13.0

$14.0

$15.0

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce;Bureau of Economic Analysis

Personal Income 2000-13Total personal income in trillions of dollars, before taxes, at seasonally adjusted annual rates

F M A M J J A S O N D J F$10.0

$10.5

$11.0

$11.5

$12.0

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; Bureau of Economic Analysis

2013 2014

Personal ConsumptionIn trillions

Feb. ’14:$11.7 trillion

20002001

20022003

20042005

20062007

20082009

20102011

20122013

$6.0

$7.0

$8.0

$9.0

$10.0

$11.0

$12.0

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; Bureau of Economic Analysis

Personal Consumption 2000-13In trillions

M A M J J A S O N D J F M$350

$375

$400

$425

$450

Source: U.S. Commerce Department

Mar. 2014:$433.9 billion

2013 2014

Retail SalesTotal retail sales in billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

$250

$300

$350

$400

$450

Source: U.S. Commerce Department

Retail Sales 2007-PresentTotal retail sales in billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted

2012 2013 201492

94

96

98

100

102

104

Source: Federal Reserve Board

Mar. 2014:103.2Industrial Production

Index, 2007=100, seasonally adjusted

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce

Construction SpendingIn billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted

F M A M J J A S O N D J F$700

$750

$800

$850

$900

$950

$1,000

2013 2014

Feb. 2014:$945.7 billion

Source: Commerce Department

Construction Spending 2007-PresentIn billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

$700

$800

$900

$1,000

$1,100

$1,200

$1,300

Sources: U.S. Department of Commerce; U.S. Department of H.U.D.; U.S. Census Bureau

Housing StartsNew private housing starts during the month, in thousands, at seasonally adjusted annual rates.

M A M J J A S O N D J F M0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

2013 2014

Mar. ’14:946,000

Housing Starts 2000-13New private housing starts during the month, in thousands, at seasonally adjusted annual rates.

20002001

20022003

20042005

20062007

20082009

20102011

20122013

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

Sources: U.S. Department of Commerce; U.S. Department of H.U.D.; U.S. Census Bureau

Sources: Dallas Morning News; Residential Strategies

Dallas-Fort Worth Home Starts (in thousands)

'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '130

10

20

30

40

50

60

43.8

20.8

Sources: Dallas Morning News; National Association of Home Builders

Dallas-Ft. Worth Home Permits Issued(in thousands)

'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '130

10

20

30

40

50

60

36.2

20.8

49.6

M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M200

300

400

500

New-Home SalesSingle-family homes (in thousands)

Mar. 2014:384,000

2012 2013 2014

Sources: U.S. Department of Commerce; U.S. Department of H.U.D.; U.S. Census Bureau

Source: The National Association of Realtors

Existing-Home SalesAnnual rate, in millions of dwelling units.

2012

2013

2014

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

Mar. 2014:4.59 million

2000:Q1 2013:Q2 2013:Q3 Low Point Date of Low PointUnited States 62.8 69.3 64.5 40.4 2006 : Q3Los Angeles 40.2 28.3 21.1 1.8 2006 : Q3New York 42.1 29.8 23 5.1 2006 : Q3/Q4Miami 58.8 57.8 54.5 10 2007 : Q1Austin 57.5 64.2 62.9 49.9 2000 : Q4Dallas 65.3 63.4 60.4 53.7 2007 : Q3Houston 66.2 64 61.5 47.4 2007 : Q3San Antonio 63.3 68.7 65.7 46.5 2006 : Q3Source: NAHB - Wells Fargo Housing Opportunity Index

Lower Prices and Interest Rates Helping Housing Affordability

(Percent of homes sold for which the median family income could qualify)

Original Slide provided by K. Phillips, FRB-Dallas; Updated by CEDR

ProductivityNonfarm business productivity, percent change from previous quarter at annual rate, seasonally adjusted

4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%4Q 2013:

1.8%

’09 2010 2011 2012 2013

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Producer PricesPercentage change from previous month for final demand goods, seasonally adjusted.

M A M J J A S O N D J F M-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

2013 2014

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Mar. 2014:0.5%

0 00

Consumer PricesPercentage change, month to month (seasonally adjusted)

M A M J J A S O N D J F M-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

2013 2014

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Mar. 2014:0.2%

0

Source: The Conference Board

Consumer Confidence IndexFrom a monthly survey of 5,000 U. S. households, 1985 = 100

2013 2014

Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Mar. 2014:82.3

Consumer Confidence: 2007-Present From a monthly survey of 5,000 U. S. households, 1985 = 100

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2030405060708090

100110120

Source: The Conference Board

Source: The Conference Board

Leading IndicatorsIndex of 10 indicators designed to “lead,” or predict overall economic activity; 2004 = 100.

J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M90

94

98

102

106

110

Mar. 2014:100.9

2011 2012 2013 2014

Things to Worry About

Pace of job growth Unfunded pension liabilities European sovereign default Corporate and consumer debt Federal Deficits/Debt Social Security / Medicare / Healthcare impact on taxes Political gridlock Environmental regulations Market volatility

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'97

'98

'99

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'01

'02

'03

'04

'05

'06

'07

'08

'09

'10

'11

'12

'13

'14

'15

-$1,900

-$1,600

-$1,300

-$1,000

-$700

-$400

-$100

$200

Source: Office of Management and Budget, White House projections

Budget DeficitIn billions of dollars

2011: -$1.30 trillion2012: -$1.09 trillion2013 Projected: -$972.9 billion2014 Projected: -$744.2 billion2015 Projected: -$576.5 billion

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce

International Goods & Services Trade DeficitBillions of dollars, seasonally adjusted. Import figures exclude shipping and insurance.

F M A M J J A S O N D J F$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

2013 2014

Feb. 2014:$42.3 billion

Source: Federal Reserve Board

Household Net WorthIn trillions

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

4Q 2013:$80.7 trillion

Sources: Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts

'90

'91

'92

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'98

'99

'00

'01

'02

'03

'04

'05

'06

'07

'08

'09

'10

'11

'12

'13-0.3

0.0

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.2

1.5

1.8

2.1

Personal Bankruptcy FilingsFiscal Years ending Sept. 30 (in millions)

Business Bankruptcies

1999 37,884 2007 28,322

2000 35,472 2008 43,546

2001 40,099 2009 60,837

2002 38,540 2010 56,282

2003 35,037 2011 47,806

2004 34,317 2012 40,075

2005 39,201 2013 33,212

2006 19,695 --- ---

Sources: Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts

F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%8.0%9.0%

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; Bureau of Economic Analysis

Feb. ’14:4.3%

2012 2013 2014

Savings RateAs Percentage of Disposable Personal Income

20002001

20022003

20042005

20062007

20082009

20102011

20122013

0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%8.0%9.0%

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; Bureau of Economic Analysis

Savings Rate 2000-2013As Percentage of Disposable Personal Income

Longest Recession Since 1933Ended June 2009

Aug'29…May'37…Feb'45…Nov'48…

Jul'53…Aug'57…Apr'60…Dec'69…Nov'73…Jan'80…Jul'81…Jul'90…

Mar'01…Dec'07…

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

4313

811

108

1011

166

1688

19

Federal Reserve Bank Dallas

TXLI ComponentsChanges Dec-Jan-Feb

Source: Federal Reserve Bank Dallas

Average Weekly Hours

Help Wanted Index

Texas Stock Index

New Unemployment Claims

Well Permits

Real Oil Price

US Leading Index

Texas Value of the Dollar

Net Change in Texas Leading Index

-1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0

0.57

0.68

0.10

-0.41

0.05

0.17

0.16

-0.23

1.09

Last Data Entry: Feb. 2014Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

198119831985198719891991199319951997199920012003200620082010201285

95

105

115

125

135

Texas Leading Index 1981-PresentMonthly, Seasonally Adjusted, 1987=100

Source: Texas Workforce Commission

Unemployment Rates: U.S., Texas, and D/FW Metro

Jan '11

Jan '12

Jan '13

Jan '14

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

11.0%

12.0%Texas U.S.

U. S. & Texas Seasonally Adjusted *D/FW not Seasonally Adjusted

U. S. Mar. 2014 = 6.7%Texas Mar. 2014 = 5.5%D/FW Mar. 2014 = 5.3%

Source: Texas Workforce Commission

Ft. Worth-Arlington MSANonagricultural Employment

Mar. 2013 Mar. 2014 % Chng

Total Non-Farm 910,600 930,700 2.21%Mining, Logging, Construction 61,300 61,400 0.16%Manufacturing 91,100 94,200 3.40%Wholesale Trade 42,100 44,600 5.94%Retail Trade 100,000 101,300 1.30%Transportation, Warehousing, Utilities 65,600 66,500 1.37%Information 13,500 13,100 -2.96%Financial Activities 55,100 53,100 -3.63%Professional & Business Services 102,100 107,500 5.29%Education & Health Services 117,400 118,200 0.68%Leisure & Hospitality 99,000 104,900 5.96%Other Services 35,400 36,700 3.67%Government 128,000 129,200 0.94%

Dallas-Plano-Irving MDNonagricultural Employment

Mar. 2013 Mar. 2014 % Chng

Total Non-Farm 2,141,400 2,215,000 3.44%Mining, Logging, Construction 110,100 116,300 5.63%Manufacturing 166,700 161,800 -2.94%Wholesale Trade 123,900 130,200 5.08%Retail Trade 213,400 220,100 3.14%Transportation, Warehousing, Utilities 78,700 83,900 6.61%Information 64,700 67,600 4.48%Financial Activities 196,100 198,600 1.27%Professional & Business Services 375,000 394,600 5.23%Education & Health Services 263,500 269,800 2.39%Leisure & Hospitality 209,300 220,100 5.16%Other Services 74,400 78,400 5.38%Government 266,600 273,600 2.63%

Source: Texas Workforce Commission

Sales and Use Tax Allocations

2010 2011 2012 2013% Chg 12-13

Allen 24,606,228 27,499,534 29,874,634 31,856,091 6.63%

Arlington 83,143,848 86,127,967 88,941,229 94,043,810 5.74%

Dallas 204,732,898 215,394,908 232,445,766 242,456,290 4.31%

Fort Worth 100,569,555 105,424,832 112,745,846 118,919,449 5.48%

Frisco 40,303,106 44,280,590 49,889,488 58,676,772 17.61%

Plano 58,888,948 66,325,563 68,410,251 69,804,509 2.04%

Source: Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts

Conclusions

The US recession is technically over.Employment recovery may not strengthen before mid-

2013 Financial sector risk Texas has performed better than nation

We’ve been “lucky puppies” Market / consumer confidence is major headwind Political failure is hurting growth

Address deficit, reform taxes, address market volatility Housing market will start recovery Local job market growing

Questions?

Contact info:

tclower@unt.edu940-565-4049

http://cedr.unt.edu