the u.s. economy: “still healing from the great recession” eugenio j. aleman, director and...

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  • The U.S. Economy: Still Healing From The Great RecessionEugenio J. Aleman, Director and Senior Economist May 17, 2013

    Economics

    *Lets Look at the Federal GovernmentGovernment outlays have come down considerablySource: U.S. Department of the Treasury and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

    Economics

    *Lets Look at the Federal GovernmentStrong fiscal reaction to avoid a depressionSource: U.S. Department of the Treasury and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

    Economics

    *Lets Look at the Federal GovernmentFiscal Conservatism? Where? When?Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

    Economics

    *Real GDP GrowthU.S. real GDP growth recovered somewhat, but remains weakSource: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

    Economics

    *U.S. Nonfarm EmploymentEmployment turned the corner in October of 2010, but it is still weakSource: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

    Economics

    *U.S. Employment By IndustryWhile employment growth has been fairly broad based, the government sector has continued to struggleSource: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

    Economics

    *U.S. Employment By IndustryAs a percentage of total non-farm payrollsSource: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

    Economics

    *Government EmploymentIt is not the Federal Government!Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

    Economics

    *Unemployment Rate Not as high as during the 1980s recession, but more damagingSource: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

    Economics

    *The Employment SituationOne of the reasons for the decline in the unemployment rate is tied to the drop-off in the labor force participation rateSource: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

    Economics

    *Mean Duration of UnemploymentDuration of unemployment shows a struggling labor marketSource: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

    Economics

    *Unemployment by Education LevelCollege graduates have the edge even in the worst recession since the depressionSource: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

    Economics

    *Consumer Price IndexConsumer prices are slowing once againSource: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

    Economics

    *The U.S. EconomyThe Humpty-Dumpty EconomyThe U.S. Economy sat on a wall, The U.S. Economy had a great fall. All the king's Treasury-men, And all the king's Federal Reserve-men, Couldn't put The U.S. Economy together again.On this side of the wall:Inflation & stagnation = stagflationOn this side of the wall:1930s depression/ Japan-like depression

    Economics

    *Helicopter Ben to the RescueThe Helicopter Effect!

    Economics

    *Federal Reserve Target RateMonetary policy remains extremely expansiveSource: Federal Reserve Board and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

    Economics

    *Federal Reserve Balance SheetA Monetary Tsunami?Source: Federal Reserve Board and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

    Economics

    The Housing Market Today

    Economics

    Your House As Seen By:You

    Economics

    Your House As Seen By:Your Buyer

    Economics

    Your House As Seen By:Your Lender

    Economics

    Your House As Seen By:Your Appraiser

    Economics

    Your House As Seen By:AndYour Countys Tax Assessor

    Economics

    *New Home SalesNew home sales are still low but improvingSource: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

    Economics

    *Housing StartsAs well as housing startsSource: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

    Economics

    *Existing Home SalesExisting home sales are relatively strongSource: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

    Economics

    *Home PricesHome prices are finally showing signs of recovery. But, are they too strong for our own good?Source: National Association of Realtors, FHFA, S&P Case-Shiller and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

    Economics

    *Home MortgagesHome mortgages have been declining for the past four yearsSource: Federal Reserve Board and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

    Economics

    *Negative EquityOMG?Source: FHFA and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

    Economics

    *ISM Manufacturing IndexManufacturing has weakened but it is back to expansion territory Source: Institute for Supply Management and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

    Economics

    *U.S. ManufacturingThe Manufacturing Myth!Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

    Economics

    *ISM Non-Manufacturing IndexBut the service economy continues to move alongSource: Institute for Supply Management and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

    Economics

    *Consumer CreditCredit card lending is non-existentSource: Federal Reserve Board and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

    Economics

    *Household DebtHouseholds are deleveraging fastbut not fast enough!Source: Federal Reserve Board and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

    Economics

    *Household DebtConsumer confidence is still very weak for a strong recoverySource: The Conference Board and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

    Economics

    *Consumer ConfidenceConsumer confidence is still very weak for a strong recoverySource: The Conference Board and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

    Economics

    *Personal Saving RateThe best news is that the saving rate has improvedSource: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

    Economics

    *Mortgage and Treasury Rates

    Mortgage interest rates have plummetedbut who is buying?Source: Freddie Mac, Federal Reserve Board and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

    Economics

    *Global ForecastGrowth will remain positive but weakSource: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

    Economics

    Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Economics Group*

    John E. Silvia ....................... john.silvia@wellsfargo.comGlobal Head of Research and Economics

    Diane Schumaker-Krieg .diane.schumaker@wellsfargo.comGlobal Head of Research & Economics

    Chief Economist

    Mark Vitner, Senior Economist..... . .mark.vitner@wellsfargo.com

    Jay Bryson, Global Economist .....jay.bryson@wellsfargo.com

    Sam Bullard, Senior Economistsam.bullard@wellsfargo.com

    Nick Bennenbroek, Currency Strategistnicholas.bennenbroek@wellsfargo.com

    Eugenio Aleman, Senior Economist.eugenio.aleman@wellsfargo.com

    Anika Khan, Senior Economist . . anika.khan@wellsfargo.comSenior Economists

    Kaylyn Swankoski, Economic Analyst kaylyn.swankoski@wellsfargo.com

    Zachary Griffiths, Economic Analyst zachary.griffiths@wellsfargo.com

    Sara Silverman, Economic Analyst sara.silverman@wellsfargo.com Economists

    Azhar Iqbal, Econometricianazhar.iqbal@wellsfargo.com

    Tim Quinlan, Economist ..tim.quinlan@wellsfargo.com

    Michael A. Brown, Economist michael.a.brown@wellsfargo.com

    Sarah Watt, Economist .sarah.watt@wellsfargo.com

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