still emerging from the great recession university of north texas center for economic development...
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Still Emerging from the Great Recession
University of North TexasCenter for Economic Development and Research
http://cedr.unt.edu
April 2014
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
U. S. Real GDP GrowthAnnual Percentage Change
'88
'89
'90
'91
'92
'93
'94
'95
'96
'97
'98
'99
'00
'01
'02
'03
'04
'05
'06
'07
'08
'09
'10
'11
'12
'13
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8% 2013:1.9%
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Real Economic GrowthGross domestic product
4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q-9%
-7%
-5%
-3%
-1%
1%
3%
5%
7%
’09 2010 2011 2012 2013
4Q 2013:3.2%
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
2012 2013 2014
Nonfarm PayrollsMonthly change, in thousands
M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
Mar. 2014:192,000
Nonfarm Payrolls 2008-PresentMonthly change, in thousands
Jan-08
FMAMJJASONDJan-09
FMAMJJASONDJan-10
FMAMJJASONDJan-11
FMAMJJASONDJan-12
FMAMJJASONDJan-13
FMAMJJASONDJan-14
FM-900-800-700-600-500-400-300-200-100
0100200300400500
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
2012 2013 2014
M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M0
25
50
75
100
Source: Challenger, Gray and Christmas
Human SacrificeNumber of layoff announcements in the U. S. (in thousands)
March ’14:34,399
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
0255075
100125150175200225250
Source: Challenger, Gray and Christmas
Human Sacrifice 2008-PresentNumber of layoff announcements in the U. S. (in thousands)
U. S. Jobless RateSeasonally adjusted
M A M J J A S O N D J F M6.00%
6.20%
6.40%
6.60%
6.80%
7.00%
7.20%
7.40%
7.60%
March ’14:6.7%
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
2013 2014
F M A M J J A S O N D J F$13.0
$13.5
$14.0
$14.5
$15.0
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; Bureau of Economic Analysis
Feb. ’14:$14.4 trillion
2013 2014
Personal IncomeTotal personal income in trillions of dollars, before taxes, at seasonally adjusted annual rates
20002001
20022003
20042005
20062007
20082009
20102011
20122013
$8.0
$9.0
$10.0
$11.0
$12.0
$13.0
$14.0
$15.0
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce;Bureau of Economic Analysis
Personal Income 2000-13Total personal income in trillions of dollars, before taxes, at seasonally adjusted annual rates
F M A M J J A S O N D J F$10.0
$10.5
$11.0
$11.5
$12.0
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; Bureau of Economic Analysis
2013 2014
Personal ConsumptionIn trillions
Feb. ’14:$11.7 trillion
20002001
20022003
20042005
20062007
20082009
20102011
20122013
$6.0
$7.0
$8.0
$9.0
$10.0
$11.0
$12.0
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; Bureau of Economic Analysis
Personal Consumption 2000-13In trillions
M A M J J A S O N D J F M$350
$375
$400
$425
$450
Source: U.S. Commerce Department
Mar. 2014:$433.9 billion
2013 2014
Retail SalesTotal retail sales in billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
$250
$300
$350
$400
$450
Source: U.S. Commerce Department
Retail Sales 2007-PresentTotal retail sales in billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted
2012 2013 201492
94
96
98
100
102
104
Source: Federal Reserve Board
Mar. 2014:103.2Industrial Production
Index, 2007=100, seasonally adjusted
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce
Construction SpendingIn billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted
F M A M J J A S O N D J F$700
$750
$800
$850
$900
$950
$1,000
2013 2014
Feb. 2014:$945.7 billion
Source: Commerce Department
Construction Spending 2007-PresentIn billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
$700
$800
$900
$1,000
$1,100
$1,200
$1,300
Sources: U.S. Department of Commerce; U.S. Department of H.U.D.; U.S. Census Bureau
Housing StartsNew private housing starts during the month, in thousands, at seasonally adjusted annual rates.
M A M J J A S O N D J F M0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2013 2014
Mar. ’14:946,000
Housing Starts 2000-13New private housing starts during the month, in thousands, at seasonally adjusted annual rates.
20002001
20022003
20042005
20062007
20082009
20102011
20122013
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Sources: U.S. Department of Commerce; U.S. Department of H.U.D.; U.S. Census Bureau
Sources: Dallas Morning News; Residential Strategies
Dallas-Fort Worth Home Starts (in thousands)
'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '130
10
20
30
40
50
60
43.8
20.8
Sources: Dallas Morning News; National Association of Home Builders
Dallas-Ft. Worth Home Permits Issued(in thousands)
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '130
10
20
30
40
50
60
36.2
20.8
49.6
M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M200
300
400
500
New-Home SalesSingle-family homes (in thousands)
Mar. 2014:384,000
2012 2013 2014
Sources: U.S. Department of Commerce; U.S. Department of H.U.D.; U.S. Census Bureau
Source: The National Association of Realtors
Existing-Home SalesAnnual rate, in millions of dwelling units.
2012
2013
2014
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
Mar. 2014:4.59 million
2000:Q1 2013:Q2 2013:Q3 Low Point Date of Low PointUnited States 62.8 69.3 64.5 40.4 2006 : Q3Los Angeles 40.2 28.3 21.1 1.8 2006 : Q3New York 42.1 29.8 23 5.1 2006 : Q3/Q4Miami 58.8 57.8 54.5 10 2007 : Q1Austin 57.5 64.2 62.9 49.9 2000 : Q4Dallas 65.3 63.4 60.4 53.7 2007 : Q3Houston 66.2 64 61.5 47.4 2007 : Q3San Antonio 63.3 68.7 65.7 46.5 2006 : Q3Source: NAHB - Wells Fargo Housing Opportunity Index
Lower Prices and Interest Rates Helping Housing Affordability
(Percent of homes sold for which the median family income could qualify)
Original Slide provided by K. Phillips, FRB-Dallas; Updated by CEDR
ProductivityNonfarm business productivity, percent change from previous quarter at annual rate, seasonally adjusted
4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%4Q 2013:
1.8%
’09 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Producer PricesPercentage change from previous month for final demand goods, seasonally adjusted.
M A M J J A S O N D J F M-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
2013 2014
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Mar. 2014:0.5%
0 00
Consumer PricesPercentage change, month to month (seasonally adjusted)
M A M J J A S O N D J F M-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
2013 2014
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Mar. 2014:0.2%
0
Source: The Conference Board
Consumer Confidence IndexFrom a monthly survey of 5,000 U. S. households, 1985 = 100
2013 2014
Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Mar. 2014:82.3
Consumer Confidence: 2007-Present From a monthly survey of 5,000 U. S. households, 1985 = 100
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2030405060708090
100110120
Source: The Conference Board
Source: The Conference Board
Leading IndicatorsIndex of 10 indicators designed to “lead,” or predict overall economic activity; 2004 = 100.
J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M90
94
98
102
106
110
Mar. 2014:100.9
2011 2012 2013 2014
Things to Worry About
Pace of job growth Unfunded pension liabilities European sovereign default Corporate and consumer debt Federal Deficits/Debt Social Security / Medicare / Healthcare impact on taxes Political gridlock Environmental regulations Market volatility
'69
'73
'75
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'80
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'85
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'90
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'95
'97
'98
'99
'00
'01
'02
'03
'04
'05
'06
'07
'08
'09
'10
'11
'12
'13
'14
'15
-$1,900
-$1,600
-$1,300
-$1,000
-$700
-$400
-$100
$200
Source: Office of Management and Budget, White House projections
Budget DeficitIn billions of dollars
2011: -$1.30 trillion2012: -$1.09 trillion2013 Projected: -$972.9 billion2014 Projected: -$744.2 billion2015 Projected: -$576.5 billion
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce
International Goods & Services Trade DeficitBillions of dollars, seasonally adjusted. Import figures exclude shipping and insurance.
F M A M J J A S O N D J F$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
2013 2014
Feb. 2014:$42.3 billion
Source: Federal Reserve Board
Household Net WorthIn trillions
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
4Q 2013:$80.7 trillion
Sources: Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts
'90
'91
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'98
'99
'00
'01
'02
'03
'04
'05
'06
'07
'08
'09
'10
'11
'12
'13-0.3
0.0
0.3
0.6
0.9
1.2
1.5
1.8
2.1
Personal Bankruptcy FilingsFiscal Years ending Sept. 30 (in millions)
Business Bankruptcies
1999 37,884 2007 28,322
2000 35,472 2008 43,546
2001 40,099 2009 60,837
2002 38,540 2010 56,282
2003 35,037 2011 47,806
2004 34,317 2012 40,075
2005 39,201 2013 33,212
2006 19,695 --- ---
Sources: Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts
F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%8.0%9.0%
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; Bureau of Economic Analysis
Feb. ’14:4.3%
2012 2013 2014
Savings RateAs Percentage of Disposable Personal Income
20002001
20022003
20042005
20062007
20082009
20102011
20122013
0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%8.0%9.0%
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; Bureau of Economic Analysis
Savings Rate 2000-2013As Percentage of Disposable Personal Income
Longest Recession Since 1933Ended June 2009
Aug'29…May'37…Feb'45…Nov'48…
Jul'53…Aug'57…Apr'60…Dec'69…Nov'73…Jan'80…Jul'81…Jul'90…
Mar'01…Dec'07…
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
4313
811
108
1011
166
1688
19
Federal Reserve Bank Dallas
TXLI ComponentsChanges Dec-Jan-Feb
Source: Federal Reserve Bank Dallas
Average Weekly Hours
Help Wanted Index
Texas Stock Index
New Unemployment Claims
Well Permits
Real Oil Price
US Leading Index
Texas Value of the Dollar
Net Change in Texas Leading Index
-1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0
0.57
0.68
0.10
-0.41
0.05
0.17
0.16
-0.23
1.09
Last Data Entry: Feb. 2014Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
198119831985198719891991199319951997199920012003200620082010201285
95
105
115
125
135
Texas Leading Index 1981-PresentMonthly, Seasonally Adjusted, 1987=100
Source: Texas Workforce Commission
Unemployment Rates: U.S., Texas, and D/FW Metro
Jan '11
Jan '12
Jan '13
Jan '14
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
11.0%
12.0%Texas U.S.
U. S. & Texas Seasonally Adjusted *D/FW not Seasonally Adjusted
U. S. Mar. 2014 = 6.7%Texas Mar. 2014 = 5.5%D/FW Mar. 2014 = 5.3%
Source: Texas Workforce Commission
Ft. Worth-Arlington MSANonagricultural Employment
Mar. 2013 Mar. 2014 % Chng
Total Non-Farm 910,600 930,700 2.21%Mining, Logging, Construction 61,300 61,400 0.16%Manufacturing 91,100 94,200 3.40%Wholesale Trade 42,100 44,600 5.94%Retail Trade 100,000 101,300 1.30%Transportation, Warehousing, Utilities 65,600 66,500 1.37%Information 13,500 13,100 -2.96%Financial Activities 55,100 53,100 -3.63%Professional & Business Services 102,100 107,500 5.29%Education & Health Services 117,400 118,200 0.68%Leisure & Hospitality 99,000 104,900 5.96%Other Services 35,400 36,700 3.67%Government 128,000 129,200 0.94%
Dallas-Plano-Irving MDNonagricultural Employment
Mar. 2013 Mar. 2014 % Chng
Total Non-Farm 2,141,400 2,215,000 3.44%Mining, Logging, Construction 110,100 116,300 5.63%Manufacturing 166,700 161,800 -2.94%Wholesale Trade 123,900 130,200 5.08%Retail Trade 213,400 220,100 3.14%Transportation, Warehousing, Utilities 78,700 83,900 6.61%Information 64,700 67,600 4.48%Financial Activities 196,100 198,600 1.27%Professional & Business Services 375,000 394,600 5.23%Education & Health Services 263,500 269,800 2.39%Leisure & Hospitality 209,300 220,100 5.16%Other Services 74,400 78,400 5.38%Government 266,600 273,600 2.63%
Source: Texas Workforce Commission
Sales and Use Tax Allocations
2010 2011 2012 2013% Chg 12-13
Allen 24,606,228 27,499,534 29,874,634 31,856,091 6.63%
Arlington 83,143,848 86,127,967 88,941,229 94,043,810 5.74%
Dallas 204,732,898 215,394,908 232,445,766 242,456,290 4.31%
Fort Worth 100,569,555 105,424,832 112,745,846 118,919,449 5.48%
Frisco 40,303,106 44,280,590 49,889,488 58,676,772 17.61%
Plano 58,888,948 66,325,563 68,410,251 69,804,509 2.04%
Source: Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts
Conclusions
The US recession is technically over.Employment recovery may not strengthen before mid-
2013 Financial sector risk Texas has performed better than nation
We’ve been “lucky puppies” Market / consumer confidence is major headwind Political failure is hurting growth
Address deficit, reform taxes, address market volatility Housing market will start recovery Local job market growing
