on breaking the spell of irrationality; a better version...
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On Breaking the Spell of Irrationality;A Better Version of Pascal’s Wager
Selmer Bringsjord(with Atriya Sen & Naveen Sundar G)
Are Humans Rational?11/21/19
RPI
Some Logistics
Some Logistics
• Recall schedule: Next three classes on “Steeples of Rationalistic Genius” — from Gödel.
Some Logistics
• Recall schedule: Next three classes on “Steeples of Rationalistic Genius” — from Gödel.
• Papers due 11/25 by 5pm. (If format violated, returned without grade.)
Some Logistics
• Recall schedule: Next three classes on “Steeples of Rationalistic Genius” — from Gödel.
• Papers due 11/25 by 5pm. (If format violated, returned without grade.)
• Last mtg is Test #3.
• Must understand our Gödelian coverage!
• You can plan now to need to take your stand on R-H, or some aspect(s) thereof, in one of your essays. And you will need to anticipate and rebut at least one powerful objection to your stand/argument.
For those writing on Newcomb’s Problem: Pollock & …
http://www.univpgri-palembang.ac.id/perpus-fkip/Perpustakaan/American%20Phylosophy/Nozick%20R.%20The%20Nature%20of%20Rationality.pdf
For those writing on Newcomb’s Problem: Pollock & …
http://www.univpgri-palembang.ac.id/perpus-fkip/Perpustakaan/American%20Phylosophy/Nozick%20R.%20The%20Nature%20of%20Rationality.pdf
On Religion & Rationality …
versus
The Book
Found this on W3: http://skepdic.ru/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/Daniel_C_Dennett_Breaking_the_Spell_Religion.pdf
Once Broken, Religious People are Freed to be Truly Rational
Here’s how it works:
• Theists and atheists share an affirmation of, and both in fact use, a common thing: thinking tools (= “cultural software”) that cut(s) across all human beings.
Here’s how it works:
• Theists and atheists share an affirmation of, and both in fact use, a common thing: thinking tools (= “cultural software”) that cut(s) across all human beings.
• Human beings, blessed as they are with a capacity for meta-reasoning and meta-representations and meta-representational capacity (recall ‘recursion’ and ‘hierarchical reasoning’ from PHP & our discussion of their BBS paper), can be brought to a realization that thinking tools, suitably deployed, entails the truth of atheism.
Here’s how it works:
• Theists and atheists share an affirmation of, and both in fact use, a common thing: thinking tools (= “cultural software”) that cut(s) across all human beings.
• Human beings, blessed as they are with a capacity for meta-reasoning and meta-representations and meta-representational capacity (recall ‘recursion’ and ‘hierarchical reasoning’ from PHP & our discussion of their BBS paper), can be brought to a realization that thinking tools, suitably deployed, entails the truth of atheism.
• So, deploy these tools and join the enlightened community of atheists!
Here’s how it works:
Key Text in BTS
Key Text in BTS
Key Text in BTS
Key Text in BTS
Key Text in BTS
A Key Part of Meta-Logic We All Share
Contradictions imply falsity. Avoid contradictions!
And so …
And so …• The many creeds corresponding to the many “main” religions are
pairwise contradictory — a brute fact we can see when we step “above” any particular religion (including our own, if we have one).
And so …• The many creeds corresponding to the many “main” religions are
pairwise contradictory — a brute fact we can see when we step “above” any particular religion (including our own, if we have one).
• Therefore, … ?
• They can’t all be true.
• No two can be true.
• None are true.
• None are likely to be true.
• No one can be true.
• Each is unlikely to be true.
• It’s unlikely that any are true.
And so …• The many creeds corresponding to the many “main” religions are
pairwise contradictory — a brute fact we can see when we step “above” any particular religion (including our own, if we have one).
• Therefore, … ?
• They can’t all be true.
• No two can be true.
• None are true.
• None are likely to be true.
• No one can be true.
• Each is unlikely to be true.
• It’s unlikely that any are true.
Dennett
And so …• The many creeds corresponding to the many “main” religions are
pairwise contradictory — a brute fact we can see when we step “above” any particular religion (including our own, if we have one).
• Therefore, … ?
• They can’t all be true.
• No two can be true.
• None are true.
• None are likely to be true.
• No one can be true.
• Each is unlikely to be true.
• It’s unlikely that any are true.
Dennett But this inference is illogical, and hence irrational.
And so …• The many creeds corresponding to the many “main” religions are
pairwise contradictory — a brute fact we can see when we step “above” any particular religion (including our own, if we have one).
• Therefore, … ?
• They can’t all be true.
• No two can be true.
• None are true.
• None are likely to be true.
• No one can be true.
• Each is unlikely to be true.
• It’s unlikely that any are true.
Dennett But this inference is illogical, and hence irrational.
My, that’s ironic.
And so …• The many creeds corresponding to the many “main” religions are
pairwise contradictory — a brute fact we can see when we step “above” any particular religion (including our own, if we have one).
• Therefore, … ?
• They can’t all be true.
• No two can be true.
• None are true.
• None are likely to be true.
• No one can be true.
• Each is unlikely to be true.
• It’s unlikely that any are true.
Dennett But this inference is illogical, and hence irrational.
My, that’s ironic.
√
And so …• The many creeds corresponding to the many “main” religions are
pairwise contradictory — a brute fact we can see when we step “above” any particular religion (including our own, if we have one).
• Therefore, … ?
• They can’t all be true.
• No two can be true.
• None are true.
• None are likely to be true.
• No one can be true.
• Each is unlikely to be true.
• It’s unlikely that any are true.
Dennett But this inference is illogical, and hence irrational.
My, that’s ironic.
√√
After all, consider …
After all, consider …• The many interpretations corresponding to the many “main”
interpretations of quantum mechanics are pairwise contradictory — a brute fact we can see when we step “above” any particular interpretations (including our own, if we have one).
After all, consider …• The many interpretations corresponding to the many “main”
interpretations of quantum mechanics are pairwise contradictory — a brute fact we can see when we step “above” any particular interpretations (including our own, if we have one).
• Therefore, … ?
• They can’t all be true.
• No two can be true.
• None are true.
• None are likely to be true.
• No one can be true.
• Each is unlikely to be true.
• It’s unlikely that any are true.
After all, consider …• The many interpretations corresponding to the many “main”
interpretations of quantum mechanics are pairwise contradictory — a brute fact we can see when we step “above” any particular interpretations (including our own, if we have one).
• Therefore, … ?
• They can’t all be true.
• No two can be true.
• None are true.
• None are likely to be true.
• No one can be true.
• Each is unlikely to be true.
• It’s unlikely that any are true.
√
After all, consider …• The many interpretations corresponding to the many “main”
interpretations of quantum mechanics are pairwise contradictory — a brute fact we can see when we step “above” any particular interpretations (including our own, if we have one).
• Therefore, … ?
• They can’t all be true.
• No two can be true.
• None are true.
• None are likely to be true.
• No one can be true.
• Each is unlikely to be true.
• It’s unlikely that any are true.
√√
Btw …
https://www.ted.com/talks/dan_dennett_let_s_teach_religion_all_religion_in_schools/transcript?language=en
More Sophisticated Direction?
More Sophisticated Direction?
• The mark of the vicinity of truth is a small number of contending frameworks among smart, learned people; and the mark of the vicinity of falsity is a large number of contending frameworks among people …
More Sophisticated Direction?
• The mark of the vicinity of truth is a small number of contending frameworks among smart, learned people; and the mark of the vicinity of falsity is a large number of contending frameworks among people …
• But how do you actually count the frameworks, in science and religion?
A Better Pascal’s Wager …
https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/pascal-wager/
Pascal’s Decision Matrix (= M)
G not-G
Bet on G v1
Bet on not-G v2 v3
1
where background propositions include‘if G, then repentance secures infinite bliss etc.’.
The Optimality Principle2 (OP2)(recall from coverage of Newcomb’s Paradox)
When choosing between alternative actions a1 and a2, rationality dictates choosing that action that maximizes expected value, computed by multiplying the value of each outcome that can result from each action by the probability that it will occur, adding the results together, and selecting the action associated with the higher utility.
The Optimality Principle2 (OP2)(recall from coverage of Newcomb’s Paradox)
When choosing between alternative actions a1 and a2, rationality dictates choosing that action that maximizes expected value, computed by multiplying the value of each outcome that can result from each action by the probability that it will occur, adding the results together, and selecting the action associated with the higher utility.
(As we said before:
This principle is taught to students in every introductory economics or decision-theory class, and is at least usually a key thing to follow in the pursuit of rational behavior.)
13-Strength-Factor ContinuumCertainEvident
Beyond Reasonable Doubt
Counterbalanced
UnlikelyBeyond Reasonable Belief
Evidently FalseCertainly False
Overwhelmingly Likely
LikelyMore Likely Than Not
More Unlikely Than Not
Overwhelmingly Unlikely
MV13CC
13-Strength-Factor ContinuumCertainEvident
Beyond Reasonable DoubtLikely
Counterbalanced
UnlikelyBeyond Reasonable Belief
Evidently FalseCertainly False
More Likely Than Not
Overwhelmingly Likely
More Unlikely Than Not
Overwhelmingly Unlikely
13-Strength-Factor ContinuumCertainEvident
Beyond Reasonable DoubtLikely
Counterbalanced
UnlikelyBeyond Reasonable Belief
Evidently FalseCertainly False
More Likely Than Not
Overwhelmingly Likely
More Unlikely Than Not
Overwhelmingly Unlikely
13-Strength-Factor ContinuumCertainEvident
Beyond Reasonable DoubtLikely
Counterbalanced
UnlikelyBeyond Reasonable Belief
Evidently FalseCertainly False
Epistemically Positive
More Likely Than Not
Overwhelmingly Likely
More Unlikely Than Not
Overwhelmingly Unlikely
13-Strength-Factor ContinuumCertainEvident
Beyond Reasonable DoubtLikely
Counterbalanced
UnlikelyBeyond Reasonable Belief
Evidently FalseCertainly False
Epistemically Positive
Epistemically Negative
More Likely Than Not
Overwhelmingly Likely
More Unlikely Than Not
Overwhelmingly Unlikely
13-Strength-Factor ContinuumCertainEvident
Beyond Reasonable DoubtLikely
Counterbalanced
UnlikelyBeyond Reasonable Belief
Evidently FalseCertainly False
Epistemically Positive
Epistemically Negative
More Likely Than Not
Overwhelmingly Likely
More Unlikely Than Not
Overwhelmingly Unlikely
13-Strength-Factor ContinuumCertainEvident
Beyond Reasonable DoubtLikely
Counterbalanced
UnlikelyBeyond Reasonable Belief
Evidently FalseCertainly False
Epistemically Positive
Epistemically Negative
More Likely Than Not
Overwhelmingly Likely
More Unlikely Than Not
Overwhelmingly Unlikely
(10)
(9)
(8)
(7)
(6)
(5)
(4)
(3)
(2)
(11)
(12)
(1)
(0)
An Optimality Principle (OP2*)(based on 13-valued scheme used in solving
the Lottery Paradox, St Petersburg Paradox, …)
When choosing between alternative actions a1 and a2, rationality dictates choosing that action that maximizes expected value, computed by multiplying the value of each outcome that can result from each action by the likelihood (0 to 13) that it will occur, adding the results together, and selecting the action associated with the higher utility.
A rational person must bet that God exists. –B. Pascal
A rational person must bet that God exists. –B. Pascal
Proof: We employ that any natural (or, for that matter, real) number n multiplied by/added to an infinite utility value yields an infinite utility value (unless n = 0). We observe that the likelihood God exists is at minimum evidently false (1).++ But then the expected utility value of betting on G is infinite, whereas the expected utility value of betting that God doesn’t exist is finite. (Why, exactly?) Hence, by OP2* a rational agent will bet on G (i.e. bet that God exists). QED
A rational person must bet that God exists. –B. Pascal
Proof: We employ that any natural (or, for that matter, real) number n multiplied by/added to an infinite utility value yields an infinite utility value (unless n = 0). We observe that the likelihood God exists is at minimum evidently false (1).++ But then the expected utility value of betting on G is infinite, whereas the expected utility value of betting that God doesn’t exist is finite. (Why, exactly?) Hence, by OP2* a rational agent will bet on G (i.e. bet that God exists). QED
++Oxford’s Richard Swinburne has a large body of work designed to show that prob(G) is at minimum greater the .5; i.e. — in my likelihood framework, at least more likely than not.
slutten
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