mr. jerzy wierzbicki, president, polish beef association ...€¦ · mr. jerzy wierzbicki,...

Polish Beef Market

MR. JERZY WIERZBICKI, PRESIDENT, POLISH BEEF ASSOCIATION POLAND

Verona May 13th 2015

The beef market conditions in Poland

Conference on the future prospects of beef

production in Europe taking into account the

developments on the world market of beef and of

the new CAP which this year start to operate.

I would like to present the beef market conditions in

Poland.

Polish Beef Market1. Production, imports and exports of beef

2. Production systems of beef cattle farms

3. Profitability of beef cattle farms taking into

account the new CAP

4. Forecasts of beef production and export

potential

2.030

1.875

1.560

1.141

535

385

355

350

330

0 500 1.000 1.500 2.000 2.500

Brazil

India

Australia

United States

New Zealand

Uruguay

Canada

Paraguay

Poland

Exports (1000 MT CWE) 2014

Exports (1000 MT CWE)

http://www.indexmundi.com/

Low prices for young bulls carcasses(R3)

Fammu/FAPA

Germany

EU avg

France

Poland

AR3 – PL Price v EU Price

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

PL UE %

EUR/100 kg mps2012 2013 2014

%

D O3 – PL Price v EU Price

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

PL UE %

EUR/100 kg mps %2012 2013 2014

E R3 – PL Price v EU Price

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

PL UE %

EUR/100 kg mps %2012 2013 2014

Beef and Veal Production

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Veal 46 46 36 37 36,7 36,3 39,3 37 33,2 28,1 24,5 19,9 19,3

Cattle 273 309 319 313 363,1 369 377,5 386,8 389,1 384,5 369,5 372,7 418

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Cattle Veal

MRiRW, 2015

Slaughter in 15 biggestslaughterhouses

Export – chilled beef

IT

DE

NL

ES

UK

Other

Cattle & calves import export

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Export

Veal Cattle

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Import

Veal Cattle

Balance of Cattle and veal import export

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Veal Cattle

Beef consumption in Poland 1998-2013

7,9

7,1

5,6

5,2

5,8

5,3

3,9

4,5

4,03,8

3,63,4

2,1

1,8

1,5 1,6

0,0

1,0

2,0

3,0

4,0

5,0

6,0

7,0

8,0

9,0

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Meat consumption in Poland 1985-2013

30,0

34,235,2

36,437,7 37,6

42,2 42,440,8

37,539,4

40,4

35,7

38,0

40,039,0 38,6 39,2

41,2

39,1 39,0

41,4

43,642,7 42,4 42,5 42,5

39,2

35,5

16,2 16,9 16,7 17,416,3 16,4 15,7

12,711,5

9,1 8,8 8,6 8,4 8,2 7,97,1

5,6 5,2 5,8 5,33,9 4,5 4,0 3,8 3,6 3,4

2,1 1,8 1,5

7,1 7,6 8,1 8,1 8,47,6 8,2

9,1 9,510,7 10,3 10,3

12,5 13,214,0 14,7

17,2

19,8 19,7

22,223,4 23,7 24,0 24,1 24,0 24,5 25,2

26,127,3

1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Pork Beef Poultry

Beef consumption in selectedcountries

62,4

52,8

39,0

36,5

33,6

3,5

4,2

1,7

1,5

64,3

52,8

38,8

35,5

34,5

5,0

4,6

1,8

1,6

- 10,0 20,0 30,0 40,0 50,0 60,0 70,0

Argentina

Uruguay

Brazil

United States

Australia

Philippines

China

India

Poland

Per capita 2014 Per capita 2013

Polish Beef Market1. Production, imports and exports of beef

2. Production systems of beef cattle farms

3. Profitability of beef cattle farms taking into

account the new CAP

4. Forecasts of beef production and export

potential

Production systems – bulls, no stears

Bulls

51%Cows

34%

Heifers

16%Stears

0%

confirmationdairy breeds, beef breeds and crosses

E

1%U

7%

R

33%

O

54%

P

5%

Production systems

1. Intensive Production

2. Extensive Production

3. Mixed-farming system

4. Organic Production

Production systems:mixed-farming system

1. Feed is based on grass silage, corn silage plus seed (wheat, barley, oat, corn)

2. Cattles are in buildings in groups

3. Slaughter age: 18-24

Warm Carcass Weight - bulls [A] –333,6kg

260

270

280

290

300

310

320

330

340

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

291,3

307,6

318,7

325,4

320,4

323,6

335,8

320,7

328,9

335,2333,6

Polish Beef Market1. Production, imports and exports of beef

2. Production systems of beef cattle farms

3. Profitability of beef cattle farms taking into

account the new CAP

4. Forecasts of beef production and export

potential

Profitability of beef cattle farms

1. Concentration of production

2. Specialization

3. Single Payment Scheme is important

Profitability of beef cattle farms

Single Payment Scheme - support for small farms

1. Young bulls, steers and heifers - 70 EUR/szt. up to 30 animals

2. Cows 70 EUR/szt. Up to 30 animals

Polish Beef Market1. Production, imports and exports of beef

2. Production systems of beef cattle farms

3. Profitability of beef cattle farms taking into

account the new CAP

4. Forecasts of beef production and export

potential

Forecasts of beef production and export potential

1. Polish beef consumption will slowly grow

2. Polish beef production will slowly grow

3. Poland will become calve importer netto in 2015 or 2016

4. Polish beef export will slowly grow