market research key trends january 2016 update

Market Research TrendsJanuary, 2016

• Employment is higher than

it’s been since June, 2009

and consumers confidence

is proving to be very stable.

Highlights:

• Overall Retail Sales for

2015 were very stable.

Holiday sales came in at

3.3%, excluding Auto, Fuel

and Food.

• Spending Intentions for the

next few months look

promising when looking at

the Y/Y numbers

• December Retail Sales

were moderate and on par

with the growth seen in

November.

• The economy might be showing signs of slowing, but consumers haven’t yet reacted to it and have not pulled back on spending.

• The retail sales story for the year depends heavily on the vertical. Y/Y - four are up, four are down and two are flat. The entire year was flat.

In this issue:

Next release Friday, 1/29

Next release Tuesday, 2/23

Next release Friday, 2/5

Next release Friday, 2/12

Next release Friday, 2/3 Next release Monday, 2/1

Retail Sales Trends

Oct

Nov

Dec

Oct

Nov

Dec

Oct

Nov

Dec

Retail Sales and Food Services excl Motor vehicle and parts and gas

Core retail sales growth (excluding Auto & Fuel) was very stable in 2015, ending on a slight downward trend.

Home Improvement, Building/Hardware Stores

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce & Kantar Retail

Furniture and home furnishings

Consumer Electronics Food Services & Drinking Places

2014 & 2015 Government-Reported Retail Sales by Channel, (% Chg Year-to-Year, Seasonally Adjusted)

*Includes discount department stores (mass merchandisers ex. supercenters) and conventional & national department stores.**Includes warehouse clubs, supercenters and small-format value stores (value discounters). Excludes discount department stores (Mass merchandisers)***The non-store channel includes the vast majority of online and catalog sales for all retailers. Other channels are intended by the government toonly capture brick-and-mortar sales, but may capture a small share of online or catalog sales due to how some retailers report their results.

2015: 3.9%2014: 3.9%

2015: 4.2%2014: 5.4%

2015: 5.8%2014: 3.3%

2015: -2.2%2014: 2.1%

2015: 8.1%2014: 6.2%

2014 & 2015 Government-Reported Retail Sales by Channel, (% Chg Year-to-Year, Seasonally Adjusted)

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce & Kantar Retail

Non-Store

Apparel & Accessory StoresTraditional & Discount Department Stores

Grocery Stores

Drug & Personal Care Stores Warehouse Clubs & Supercenters

*Includes discount department stores (mass merchandisers ex. supercenters) and conventional & national department stores.**Includes warehouse clubs, supercenters and small-format value stores (value discounters). Excludes discount department stores (Mass merchandisers)***The non-store channel includes the vast majority of online and catalog sales for all retailers. Other channels are intended by the government toonly capture brick-and-mortar sales, but may capture a small share of online or catalog sales due to how some retailers report their results.

2015: -1.8%2014: -2.0%

2015: 2.2%2014: 1.7%

2015: 6.2%2014: 5.7%

2015: 2.5%2014: 2.6%

2015: 4.4%2014: 6.4%

2015: 1.4% (Jan-Nov)

2014: 3.2%

Source: Kantar Retail and U.S. Department of Commerce

Government-Reported Retail Sales by Channel, (% Chg Year-to-Year)

*Includes discount department stores (mass merchandisers ex. supercenters) and conventional & national department stores.**Includes warehouse clubs, supercenters and small-format value stores (value discounters). Excludes discount department stores (Mass merchandisers)***The non-store channel includes the vast majority of online and catalog sales for all retailers. Other channels are intended by the government toonly capture brick-and-mortar sales, but may capture a small share of online or catalog sales due to how some retailers report their results.

December Retail Sales: Channel Results

• Y/Y year the next 90 days look promising when looking at All Adults 18+.

• Boomers are leading the growth M/M and Y/Y

• For the most part, Millennials are pulling back M/M and Y/Y.

Source: Prosper Insights & Analytics. Consumer Spending Score calculation: [(planning to spend more% + planning to spend the same%) / (planning to spend the same% + planning to spend less%)]*100

90 Day Spending Intentions

All Adults 18+ Gen XMillennials Boomers

January, 2015 M/M Y/Y M/M Y/Y M/M Y/Y M/M Y/Y

Lawn and garden supplies 6% 7% 0% 1% 1% 5% 15% 12%

Health and Beauty Aids 4% 4% 1% 2% 5% 4% 6% 5%

Sporting goods 1% 7% 0% 3% -6% 1% 10% 14%

Shoes 1% 2% -2% -3% 3% 3% 2% 5%Home Improvement and Hardware supplies 1% 7% -8% -2% 2% 8% 6% 13%

Groceries 0% 2% 2% 2% 0% 3% -1% 1%Decorative home furnishings (lamps-pictures-etc.) 0% 4% -2% 1% 0% 4% 3% 7%

Womens Dress clothing 0% 3% -2% -3% 0% -1% 5% 12%

Womens Casual clothing -1% 3% -5% -1% 1% 1% 2% 9%

Linens/Bedding/Draperies -2% 4% -5% -4% -2% 8% 4% 10%

Mens Dress clothing -2% 4% 0% 2% -6% -1% 3% 6%

Home furniture (chair-sofa-bed-etc.) -2% 4% -7% -3% 1% 6% 1% 8%

Beer/Wine/Alcohol -3% 4% -6% -1% -2% 7% -3% 6%

Mens Casual clothing -4% 2% -8% -2% -3% 2% 0% 4%

Going out to eat -4% 9% -8% 3% -10% 4% 3% 16%

Electronics -6% 1% -12% -10% -6% 4% 0% 7%

CDs/DVDs/Videos/Books -6% 3% -11% -7% -7% 5% 0% 8%

Childrens clothing -7% 4% -4% 4% -6% 0% -10% 3%

Candy -8% 0% -13% -2% -8% -1% -5% 1%

Toys -15% -1% -16% -8% -17% -2% -15% 5%