leen paape: risk in finance

Leadership • Entrepreneurship • Stewardship

The Future of Risk

Leen Paape, dagvoorzitter

info@nyenrode.nl +31 (0)346-291 291 www.nyenrode.nl

12 oktober 2015

Our MissionServing society by shaping managers and

professionals. We develop responsible leaders,

entrepreneurs and organizations through action-

oriented education and research.

LEADERSHIP ENTREPRENEURSHIP STEWARDSHIP

Prof. Willem Wagenaar

Als een probleem zo groot is dat

het onoplosbaar is, dan nemen

we een ander probleem dat wel

oplosbaar is!

slide 3

4

http://www.bearstearns.com/index.htm

http://www.northernrock.co.uk/

http://www.citigroup.com/citi/

http://about.countrywide.com/relation/relation.aspx

http://www.credit-suisse.com/

http://images.google.nl/imgres?imgurl=http://www.truelifeonline.org/ftc1/images/stories/bank_of_america.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.truelifeonline.org/ftc1/index.php?option%3Dcom_content%26view%3Darticle%26id%3D1%26Itemid%3D2&usg=__jk3Sp5qqcM3x6WbQPxii6rAiWfg=&h=276&w=591&sz=77&hl=nl&start=1&sig2=-LSwXo4zBl00eJZrPPeyqQ&um=1&tbnid=5fOJEZbFkIJrpM:&tbnh=63&tbnw=135&prev=/images?q%3Dbank%2Bof%2Bamerica%26hl%3Dnl%26rlz%3D1T4GZAZ_nlNL253NL253%26sa%3DN%26um%3D1&ei=iz33SsXuMM_v-Qbnl8j6DQ

http://images.google.nl/imgres?imgurl=http://davidcoethica.files.wordpress.com/2009/05/rbs-logo.jpg&imgrefurl=http://davidcoethica.wordpress.com/2009/05/&usg=__RFENnjG55fgNCKC4V1eNzxg7pTY=&h=320&w=430&sz=28&hl=nl&start=3&sig2=y0xThPCOSRSA1_y9YrSi4w&um=1&tbnid=eGYlqXRCznHm_M:&tbnh=94&tbnw=126&prev=/images?q%3Drbs%26hl%3Dnl%26rlz%3D1T4GZAZ_nlNL253NL253%26um%3D1&ei=sD33SvvOEo2D-QbFkYD6DQ

http://images.google.nl/imgres?imgurl=http://theunknownentrepreneur.files.wordpress.com/2009/01/hsbc.jpg&imgrefurl=http://theunknownentrepreneur.wordpress.com/2009/01/&usg=__Z3dBcR6lZfduH2lwvxQkBo6h05w=&h=702&w=1923&sz=119&hl=nl&start=1&sig2=1mNOE0lNQYxB8ip5YpZnMw&um=1&tbnid=MZsKFHN1sWL4mM:&tbnh=55&tbnw=150&prev=/images?q%3Dhsbc%26hl%3Dnl%26rlz%3D1T4GZAZ_nlNL253NL253%26um%3D1&ei=5z33Sv6hEYfx-Qa93oX6DQ

All models are wrong (or don’t reflect reality) but some are useful

As long as the music is playing, we’ll keep on dancing….

http://www.google.nl/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=zc_c7zLrgRqj0M&tbnid=2bHm7NbGDSflvM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.rabofloriade.eventassist.nl/view.cfm?page_id=23940&ei=05SDUevZM-ie0QXcr4CgAw&bvm=bv.45960087,d.d2k&psig=AFQjCNF7oFnlGrPVXgqrUmJGh8Ahr5z4Sg&ust=1367664116050171

Risk-regulation-reflex: Let’s fix the system!

Onze reactie*• Basel I 30 pages• Basel II 374 pages• Basel III 616 pages

• Solvency I 17 pages• Solvency II 175 pages

• Glass-Steagall 37 pages• Dodd-Frank 848 pages

• In the making 60.000 pages more…… (according to mr. Haldane from the Bank of England)

Andrew Haldane: na krediettop, snel crisis

John Doyle: Complexiteit is gevaarlijk

Robert Shiller: nog te weinig gereguleerd….

Ann Pettifor: de volgende crisis is in aantocht..

John Coates: ‘t zijn de hormonen….

De nieuwe kleren van de keizer?!

leen paape: risk in finance

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