kåre vassenden, statistics norway ece work session on migration statistics

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Kåre Vassenden, Statistics Norway

ECE Work Session on Migration Statistics

Geneva, 17-19 October 2012

The quality of Norwegian data for The quality of Norwegian data for

analysis of return and circular analysis of return and circular

migrationmigration

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Background

Increasing demand for higher quality statistics on international migration

In short: ’more advanced statistics on international migration’

- return migration - circular migration - intra-EU mobility- measuring emigration using data collected by the receiving

country- the EU regulation on migration statistics

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Motivations

• Study and elaborate the relevant conceptual framework

• Find out more about the quality of – the Norwegian migration statistics

– the Nordic migration statistics. The effect of Nordic cooperation

• Strike a blow for the variables ’country of last/next residence’

• Express a wish for better dissemination of statistics on Internet

• Draw the attention to the superior level: the population balance

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Outline of the presentation

1. A general, theoretical discussion

2. Information on the situation in Norway

1. Including comparisons with other countries, in particular the Nordic

countries and the Netherlands.

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Indicators of quality

• Measuring quality – a real challenge

• Both qualitative and quantitative data

• Dates of migration (length of stay)

• Coverage of country of previous/next residence

• (The consistency between migration figures from different countries may indicate something about the quality)

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Non-Norwegian statistics used

• Data available on web sites– national databanks– the Nordic databank– Eurostat’s databank– direct request to some few NSIs

• Stored in spreadsheets, further processed in SAS

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Different perspectives observed on the treatment of international migration in statistics

• 1. National perspective The main interest is the dichotomy between the country of interest and the

outside world. ’Country of last/next residence’ is unimportant ’Citizenship’ goes a long way to describing the migration flows However, comparison with other countries is interesting and useful

• 2. International perspective• ’Country of last/next residence’ is fundamental

• Simplified version Seen from one country. International comparability does not have highest

priority

• True version With an birds eye perspective. International comparability is essential

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One country or more in the model

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Different return concepts

AB

C

Out-returnIn-return

‘False return’

True return

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The case of Norway

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Important frame conditions

• A well-functioning PIN

• A population registry with administrative authority

• Nordic agreement on population registration

• Long data history

• Broad scope of relevant registers and variables

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The correction factor

Growth_P = Population 31.12. – Population 1.1.

Growth_C = Births – Deaths + Immigration – Emigration

The correction factor as percentage =

Growth_P – Growth-C / (the highest of G-P and G-C) *100

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Size of correction factor – an indicator?

Year Nor-way

Swe-den

Den-mark

Fin-land

Ice-land

Green-land

Faroe Is-

lands Nether-

lands Belg-

ium Slo-

venia Austria

1996 -0.6 -2.4 1.5 7.9 -4.5 -20.6 0.0 6.1 12.5 -50.9 0.0 1997 -3.9 -9.4 1.4 7.3 5.2 -49.3 0.0 2.9 17.9 18.7 0.0 1998 -1.2 1.0 -0.2 8.8 2.8 81.8 0.0 0.9 0.3 50.1 0.0 1999 0.1 -6.3 3.1 5.6 0.5 -77.7 0.0 3.3 -2.9 89.6 0.0 2000 0.1 -0.8 3.2 -1.7 2.6 -53.1 0.0 2.6 1.2 5.6 0.0 2001 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 2.5 -3.6 15.2 0.0 4.4 0.9 50.1 21.2 2002 0.2 -0.7 2.6 0.3 -2.9 -38.2 0.0 3.7 5.7 34.0 2.9 2003 -0.2 -0.2 5.8 0.4 -3.9 22.5 0.0 11.3 6.9 8.4 6.4 2004 -0.2 -0.3 0.9 0.3 2.2 -36.8 -5.4 13.2 4.9 -13.7 5.6 2005 -0.3 -1.1 0.9 0.9 0.2 60.3 7.8 16.1 7.5 0.0 10.6 2006 -0.2 -0.1 0.8 1.2 0.2 4.3 0.0 22.8 5.2 0.0 3.4 2007 -0.2 -0.1 -9.1 1.2 0.5 11.8 -55.4 10.2 4.3 -99.3 -2.1 2008 -0.1 -0.4 -10.2 -0.2 -2.1 13.1 -0.3 6.4 12.4 0.0 -1.2 2009 -0.1 -0.5 -23.0 0.1 -4.0 -1.5 25.4 4.5 10.4 0.0 2.4 2010 -0.3 -0.3 -17.7 0.1 8.4 -20.1 47.2 -0.7 2011 -0.4 0.2 -31.6 -0.8 1.4 0.0 0.6

Sources: National statistical databases and the Nordic statistical database.

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An uneven distribution of length of stay indicates low accuracy

0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

14 000

16 000

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40

Length of stay in Norway (months)

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0,0

10,0

20,0

30,0

40,0

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Norway

Netherlands

Sweden

Finland

Denmark

Percentage unknown country of next residence

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0,0

10,0

20,0

30,0

40,0

50,0

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Norway – not Nordic

Norway – all

Sweden – not Nordic

Sweden – all

Percentage unknown country of next residence – emigration to Nordic countries excluded

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Recent developments and discoveries

• A separate variable distinguishes between – ‘notified emigration‘ and– ‘emigration by administrative decision’

• Turned out that country of next residence had been imputed in some cases

– > The real percentage unknown is even higher

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Percentage of emigration events registered by administrative decision, by citizenship

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

NorwayNetherland

GermanyUK

FrancePoland

LithuaniaSpain

CanadaUSA

AustraliaIndiaBrazil

ThailandRussia

RomaniaChina

PakistanPhilippines

Somalia

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Summary and conclusions (1)

• Norway has good preconditions for producing statistics on

return and circular migration

• The basic administrative system provides the necessary

data and the possibilities to exploit them

• However, the administrative definition of migration events

does fully comply with the statistical wishes

– Strict criteria for being registered as emigrated

• Emigration to other Nordic countries is handled by a system

that provides for full coverage of country of next residence

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Summary and conclusions (2)

• Emigration events to countries outside the Nordic ones have

substantial coverage problems at the variable country of

next residence

• The biggest problems relates to countries that are natural to

include in circular migration studies

• Totally dependant on the administrative system for

improvements. Possibilities within Statistics Norway are

depleted

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Further work on the problem of unknown country of next residence

• Obtain some qualitative information on the issue from other countries

• Collect more statistics for comparison purposes

• Develop the internal quality statistics

• Inform the Population registry about the findings, and follow up with further contact

• Learn more about the projects for exchange of national insurance data between EEA countries

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Thank you!Thank you!

Kåre VassendenStatistics NorwayDivision for Population Statisticskva@ssb.no+47 62 88 52 94