global climate change hans joachim schellnhuber,

The Global Climate Change: Why we have to stand up from our easy chairs

Professor Schellnhuber CBEPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

Workshop at the Swedish EmbassyBerlin, 17 January 2011

Decadal Surface Temperature Anomalies (°C)

Hansen et al., 2010

Global Heat Record

NASA GISS 2010

Global Warming Could Cool Down Temperaturesin Winter in Europe and Northern Asia

Petoukhov & Semenov Journal of Geophysical Research, 2010

Simulated (ECHAM5) responses to decrease in the Barents-Kara sea ice concentration from 80% to 40% for February

Monthly surface air temperature (in °C) Vector of the horizontal

wind at 850 hPa (in m/s);

Geopotential height at 850 hPa (Z850, in gpm);

1900 2000 2100

Glo

bally

aver

aged

war

min

g(º

C)

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

B1

A1T

B2 A1B

A2

A1F

I

Multi-model Averages and Assessed Ranges forSurface Warming

Future sea level (rel. to 1990) basedon IPCC AR4 global temperature projections

Full range: 75 – 190 cm by 2100

Vermeer & Rahmstorf, PNAS 2009

constant rate 3.2 mm/year

Future Projections

Updated Map of Tipping Elements in the Earth System

(Source: after Lenton et al. 2008)

(Tarnocai et al. 2009 Global Biogeochemical Cycles)

Carbon Stored in Permafrost SoilsEstimates Corrected Upwards

The new estimate of frozen carbon stored in permafrost soils of the circumpolar region is over 1.5 trillion tons, about twice as much carbon as contained in the atmosphere.

Methane Hydrates – A Slow Tipping Element

(Archer et al. 2009 PNAS)

Methane release as a function of simulated ocean temperature

0

0

Exemplary emission pathways in order to remain within a budget of 750 Gtbetween 2010 and 2050. At this level, there is a 67% probability of staying below a warming of 2 C.

Time is of the Essence

(WBGU Special Report, 2009)

Examples of equal per-capita emissions of selected countries for 2010–2050, without emissions trading. Trajectories start from current emission levels.

Examples of theoretical emission trajectories

(WBGU Special Report, 2009)