global climate change hans joachim schellnhuber,
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A presentation by professor Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, held at the seminar on "The Davos Climate/Energy brief" at the Swedish Embassy in Berlin on the 17th of January 2011TRANSCRIPT
The Global Climate Change: Why we have to stand up from our easy chairs
Professor Schellnhuber CBEPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Workshop at the Swedish EmbassyBerlin, 17 January 2011
Decadal Surface Temperature Anomalies (°C)
Hansen et al., 2010
Global Heat Record
NASA GISS 2010
Global Warming Could Cool Down Temperaturesin Winter in Europe and Northern Asia
Petoukhov & Semenov Journal of Geophysical Research, 2010
Simulated (ECHAM5) responses to decrease in the Barents-Kara sea ice concentration from 80% to 40% for February
Monthly surface air temperature (in °C) Vector of the horizontal
wind at 850 hPa (in m/s);
Geopotential height at 850 hPa (Z850, in gpm);
1900 2000 2100
Glo
bally
aver
aged
war
min
g(º
C)
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
B1
A1T
B2 A1B
A2
A1F
I
Multi-model Averages and Assessed Ranges forSurface Warming
Future sea level (rel. to 1990) basedon IPCC AR4 global temperature projections
Full range: 75 – 190 cm by 2100
Vermeer & Rahmstorf, PNAS 2009
constant rate 3.2 mm/year
Future Projections
Updated Map of Tipping Elements in the Earth System
(Source: after Lenton et al. 2008)
(Tarnocai et al. 2009 Global Biogeochemical Cycles)
Carbon Stored in Permafrost SoilsEstimates Corrected Upwards
The new estimate of frozen carbon stored in permafrost soils of the circumpolar region is over 1.5 trillion tons, about twice as much carbon as contained in the atmosphere.
Methane Hydrates – A Slow Tipping Element
(Archer et al. 2009 PNAS)
Methane release as a function of simulated ocean temperature
0
0
Exemplary emission pathways in order to remain within a budget of 750 Gtbetween 2010 and 2050. At this level, there is a 67% probability of staying below a warming of 2 C.
Time is of the Essence
(WBGU Special Report, 2009)
Examples of equal per-capita emissions of selected countries for 2010–2050, without emissions trading. Trajectories start from current emission levels.
Examples of theoretical emission trajectories
(WBGU Special Report, 2009)