california housing market 2012 forecast coldwell banker san diego/inland empire october 25, 2011...
Post on 19-Dec-2015
214 Views
Preview:
TRANSCRIPT
CALIFORNIA HOUSING MARKET 2012 FORECAST
Coldwell Banker San Diego/Inland Empire
October 25, 2011
Leslie Appleton-Young, Chief Economist
Overview
US and California Economies
California Housing Market
Regional & Local Markets
2011 Annual Market Survey
2012 Housing Market Forecast
U.S. Economic Outlook
Japanese
Earthquake &
Tsunami
Sovereign DebtCrisis in EuroZone
Oil Price Spikes
2011: A Year of Wild Cards
Arab Uprising
Political Change on Capitol Hill
Debt Limit Ceiling & Downgrade of US Debt
Stock Market Volatility
Gross Domestic Product: Stall Speed
2010: 2.8%; 2011 Q1: 0.4% Q2: 1.0% ANNUAL PERCENT CHANGE, CHAIN-TYPE (2005) $
-8%-7%-6%
-5%-4%
-3%-2%-1%
0%1%
2%3%4%
5%6%
7%8%
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
Q2
-10
Q4
-10
Q2
-11
ANNUAL QTRLY
SOURCE: US Dept of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
Components of GDP:Consumer Spending Weak; Gov’t Sector Down
Quarterly Percent Change
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Consumption Fixed Nonres.Investment
Net Exports Government
Q3 2010
Q4 2010
Q1 2011
Q2 2011
QUARTERLY PERCENT CHANGE
Consumers Pulling BackHome Equity & Reverse Wealth Effect
Consumer Spending 2011 Q1: 2.7% Q2: 0.4%
SOURCE: US Dept of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
1Q
-20
00
1Q
-20
01
1Q
-20
02
1Q
-20
03
1Q
-20
04
1Q
-20
05
1Q
-20
06
1Q
-20
07
1Q
-20
08
1Q
-20
09
1Q
-20
10
1Q
-20
11
CA Underwater Mortgages
SOURCE: CoreLogic
Q4-2009
Q1-2010
Q2-2010
Q3-2010
Q4-2010
Q1-2011
Q2-2011
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
30.2%
4.6%
Negative Equity Share in CA Near Negative Equity Share in CA
Unemployment Stubbornly High September 2011
SOURCE: CA Employment Development Division
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
Ja
n-0
0
Ja
n-0
1
Ja
n-0
2
Ja
n-0
3
Ja
n-0
4
Ja
n-0
5
Ja
n-0
6
Ja
n-0
7
Ja
n-0
8
Ja
n-0
9
Ja
n-1
0
Ja
n-1
1
CA US
California (12.1%) vs. United States (9.1%)
Unemployment RateSan Diego County, September 2011: 9.7%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Ja
n-9
0
Ja
n-9
1
Ja
n-9
2
Ja
n-9
3
Ja
n-9
4
Ja
n-9
5
Ja
n-9
6
Ja
n-9
7
Ja
n-9
8
Ja
n-9
9
Ja
n-0
0
Ja
n-0
1
Ja
n-0
2
Ja
n-0
3
Ja
n-0
4
Ja
n-0
5
Ja
n-0
6
Ja
n-0
7
Ja
n-0
8
Ja
n-0
9
Ja
n-1
0
Ja
n-1
1
SOURCE: CA Employment Development Division
Unemployment Rate – Cont.San Diego County – September 2011
SOURCE: CA Employment Development Department
CCD Census County DivisionCDP Census Designated Place
Area Name Labor Force Rate
Lakeside CDP 11,200 10.8%Lemon Grove city 13,900 12.2%National City city 24,800 18.5%Oceanside city 86,000 9.3%Poway city 28,000 5.8%Ramona CDP 8,900 9.0%San Diego city 700,200 9.7%San Marcos city 31,200 9.7%Santee city 32,900 8.2%Solana Beach city 8,500 6.6%Spring Valley CDP 15,200 11.3%Valley Center CDP 4,100 4.8%Vista city 49,100 10.8%San Diego County 1,568,600 9.7%
Unemployment RateSan Diego County – September 2011
SOURCE: CA Employment Development DepartmentCCD Census County DivisionCDP Census Designated Place
Area Name Labor Force Rate
Bonita CDP 6,700 7.7%Bostonia CDP 8,300 13.3%Carlsbad city 47,600 6.5%Casa de Oro Mount Helix CDP 11,100 9.2%Chula Vista city 92,300 11.3%Coronado city 8,700 6.2%Del Mar city 3,000 5.1%El Cajon city 53,300 13.2%Encinitas city 38,800 6.9%Escondido city 73,200 10.1%Fallbrook CDP 14,700 12.3%Imperial Beach city 14,100 15.5%La Mesa city 34,000 8.2%
U.S. Job Growth: Flat in August
SOURCE: US Dept of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Month-to-Month Changes
Recession Job Losses: 8.4 millionSince Jan’10: +1.8 million
-900,000
-800,000
-700,000
-600,000
-500,000
-400,000
-300,000
-200,000
-100,000
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
Ja
n-0
8
Ap
r-0
8
Ju
l-0
8
Oc
t-0
8
Ja
n-0
9
Ap
r-0
9
Ju
l-0
9
Oc
t-0
9
Ja
n-1
0
Ap
r-1
0
Ju
l-1
0
Oc
t-1
0
Ja
n-1
1
Ap
r-1
1
Ju
l-1
1
California Job Growth Faltering
SOURCE: CA Employment Development Division
Month-to-Month ChangesRecession Job Losses: 1.3 million
Since Jan’10: +188,100
-160000
-140000
-120000
-100000
-80000
-60000
-40000
-20000
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
Ja
n-0
8
Ma
r-0
8
Ma
y-0
8
Ju
l-0
8
Se
p-0
8
No
v-0
8
Ja
n-0
9
Ma
r-0
9
Ma
y-0
9
Ju
l-0
9
Se
p-0
9
No
v-0
9
Ja
n-1
0
Ma
r-1
0
Ma
y-1
0
Ju
l-1
0
Se
p-1
0
No
v-1
0
Ja
n-1
1
Ma
r-1
1
Ma
y-1
1
Ju
l-1
1
San Diego Nonfarm EmploymentSan Diego County, September 2011: Up 1.4% YTY
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
Ja
n-9
1
Ja
n-9
2
Ja
n-9
3
Ja
n-9
4
Ja
n-9
5
Ja
n-9
6
Ja
n-9
7
Ja
n-9
8
Ja
n-9
9
Ja
n-0
0
Ja
n-0
1
Ja
n-0
2
Ja
n-0
3
Ja
n-0
4
Ja
n-0
5
Ja
n-0
6
Ja
n-0
7
Ja
n-0
8
Ja
n-0
9
Ja
n-1
0
Ja
n-1
1
SOURCE: CA Employment Development Division
Y-T-Y PERCENT CHANGE
Where are California’s Jobs? Employment Trends:
Construction & Financial Sectors Biggest Losers
SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
Industry 2005 Jul-11Year to
Date
Mining and Logging 23,600 27,600 4,000
Construction 905,300 567,300 -338,000
Manufacturing 1,502,600 1,257,600 -245,000
Trade, Transportation & Utilities 2,822,100 2,641,500 -180,600
Information 473,600 455,400 -18,200
Financial Activities 920,300 755,800 -164,500
Professional & Business Services 2,160,700 2,136,200 -24,500
Educational & Health Services 1,593,400 1,837,000 243,600
Leisure & Hospitality 1,475,200 1,531,600 56,400
Other Services 505,500 484,500 -21,000
Government 2,420,200 2,380,200 -40,000
TOTAL 14,802,500 14,074,700 -727,800
CA New Housing Permits2010: 44,601 units, +22.5% YTY; Aug 2011: +2.6% YTD
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,0001
98
8
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
Single Family Multi-Family
SOURCE: CBIA
New Housing PermitsSan Diego County, September 2011: 420 Units, Up 47.2% YTD
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500Ja
n-8
8Ja
n-8
9Ja
n-9
0Ja
n-9
1Ja
n-9
2Ja
n-9
3Ja
n-9
4Ja
n-9
5Ja
n-9
6Ja
n-9
7Ja
n-9
8Ja
n-9
9Ja
n-0
0Ja
n-0
1Ja
n-0
2Ja
n-0
3Ja
n-0
4Ja
n-0
5Ja
n-0
6Ja
n-0
7Ja
n-0
8Ja
n-0
9Ja
n-1
0Ja
n-1
1
Single Family Multi-Family
SOURCE: Construction Industry Research Board
INDEX, 100=1985
Consumer Confidence SlippingMarginal Gains in September
September 2011: 45.4
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Ja
n-0
0
Ju
l-0
0
Ja
n-0
1
Ju
l-0
1
Ja
n-0
2
Ju
l-0
2
Ja
n-0
3
Ju
l-0
3
Ja
n-0
4
Ju
l-0
4
Ja
n-0
5
Ju
l-0
5
Ja
n-0
6
Ju
l-0
6
Ja
n-0
7
Ju
l-0
7
Ja
n-0
8
Ju
l-0
8
Ja
n-0
9
Ju
l-0
9
Ja
n-1
0
Ju
l-1
0
Ja
n-1
1
Ju
l-1
1
Source: National Federation of Independent Business
Crisis of Confidence: Small Business Optimism Down
Consumer Prices Low
CPI August 2011: All Items +3.8% YTY; Core +2.0% YTY
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
Ja
n-0
0
Ja
n-0
1
Ja
n-0
2
Ja
n-0
3
Ja
n-0
4
Ja
n-0
5
Ja
n-0
6
Ja
n-0
7
Ja
n-0
8
Ja
n-0
9
Ja
n-1
0
Ja
n-1
1
All Items
Core
PERCENT CHANGE FROM A YEAR AGO, 100=1982-1984
Monetary Policy
2009
.01
2009
.03
2009
.05
2009
.07
2009
.09
2009
.11
2010
.01
2010
.03
2010
.05
2010
.07
2010
.09
2010
.11
2011
.01
2011
.03
2011
.05
2011
.07
7.28
.11
8.11
.11
8.25
.11
9.8.
11
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
FRM ARM
MONTHLY WEEKLY
Mortgage Rates @ Historical LowsDebt Down Grade Ignited Flight to Quality
SOURCE: Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation
Classic Liquidity Trap: Consumers DeleveragingLow Rates and Low Borrowing
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
Ja
n-0
0
Ja
n-0
1
Ja
n-0
2
Ja
n-0
3
Ja
n-0
4
Ja
n-0
5
Ja
n-0
6
Ja
n-0
7
Ja
n-0
8
Ja
n-0
9
Ja
n-1
0
Ja
n-1
1
FRM
ARM
Federal Funds
Fiscal Policy
US Deficit Highest in Decades2010: 11% of GDP (Revenues – Expenses)
19621965
19681971
19741977
19801983
19861989
19921995
19982001
20042007
2010-12.0%
-10.0%
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%Deficit as a % of GDP
Source: US Treasury, BEA, compiled by C.A.R.Note: Positive = Surplus
US Debt Jumped as Government Responded to Financial Crisis 2010: 93% of GDP
19621965
19681971
19741977
19801983
19861989
19921995
19982001
20042007
20100.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
Debt as a % of GDP
Source: US Treasury, compiled by C.A.R.
Obama Jobs Proposal
What: $450 Billion stimulus: Tax cuts ($250B) and infrastructure spending ($200B)
Why: Economy is stalled/Avoid double-dip Zero job growth in August/high unemploymentStabilize confidence: consumer, business, investor
How:Increase taxes on the richEntitlement ReformTax Reform
Housing
Obama Mortgage Refinance Proposal “HARP II”
What: Make it easier for homeowners who are significantly underwater AND not behind on their payments to refi at today’s low rates. Mortgage sold to Fannie or Freddie on or before May 31, 2009Help 1 million homeowners to refinance (Pool: 7 million)
Why: Housing market is stalled / Consumers leery of spending
How: Modify the Home Affordable Refi ProgramEliminates 125% capWaives some GSE fees if loan term reducedEliminates appraisals & extensive underwritingModifies Reps and Warranties
SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
California vs. U.S. Sales
19701973
19771980
19821984
19861988
19901992
19941996
19982000
20022004
20062008
20100
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
US Home Sales CA Home Sales
SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
California vs. U.S. Median Price
19701973
19771980
19821984
19861988
19901992
19941996
19982000
20022004
20062008
2010$0
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
US Median Price CA Median Price
Housing Affordability: Historic HighsObsolete Metric?
California Vs. U.S.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Q1
20
00
Q3
20
00
Q1
20
01
Q3
20
01
Q1
20
02
Q3
20
02
Q1
20
03
Q3
20
03
Q1
20
04
Q3
20
04
Q1
20
05
Q3
20
05
Q1
20
06
Q3
20
06
Q1
20
07
Q3
20
07
Q1
20
08
Q3
20
08
Q1
20
09
Q3
20
09
Q1
20
10
Q3
20
10
Q1
20
11
CA US
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
% OF HOUSEHOLDS THAT CAN BUY
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Q1
/90
Q1
/91
Q1
/92
Q1
/93
Q1
/94
Q1
/95
Q1
/96
Q1
/97
Q1
/98
Q1
/99
Q1
/00
Q1
/01
Q1
/02
Q1
/03
Q1
/04
Q1
/05
Q1
/06
Q1
/07
Q1
/08
Q1
/09
Q1
/10
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%Refinance Originations (Bil $)Purchase Originations (Bil $)Fixed Rate Mortgage
ORIGINATION (BIL $) 30-YR FIXED RATE MORTGAGE
Mortgage Originations: 1990-2010
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association of America
• Refinance vs. Purchase
What Happened?
Trustee Sales in Anaheim Scheduled for 10/7/10
1872 W. Admiral, 92801
•3 bed, 2.5 ba, built in 1982•Purchased in Sept 2005 for $594,000 with 30% down.•In April 2006, added a second for $57,000.•In Oct 2006, refinanced the second into a new second for $100,000.•Defaulted in 2010•Zestimate of current value = $364,000.
1572 W. Orangewood, 92802
•3 bd, 2 ba, 2,016 sq ft built in 1977.•Purchased in June 2003 for $455,000 with 30% down.•March 2004: added a second for $75,000; added a third for $90,500; added a fourth for $80,000. •Within one year of purchase, the property had $565,000 in debt on it!•Defaulted in 2010.•Zestimate of current value •= $442,000.
8871 Regal, 92804
•3 bd, 2 ba, 1,314 sq ft built in 1956.•Sold for $568,000 in 2005 and went into default•Purchased as REO in 2007 for $417,000 with zero down..•Defaulted in 2010.•Zestimate of current value = $367,500.
2414 E. Underhill, 92806
•3 bd, 2 ba, 1,459 sq ft built in 1957.•Purchased for $640,000 in July 2006 with piggyback financing: $500,000 first and $140,000 second, i.e. zero down.•Defaulted in 2010.•Zestimate of current value = $387,000.
Conclusions
• Excessive borrowing against home equity is the untold part of the foreclosure story.
• “House Prices, Home Equity-Based Borrowing, and the U.S. Household Leverage Crisis” by Mian and Sufi: American Economic Review :
• 39% of new defaults from 2006 to 2008
• attributable to home equity borrowing
Understanding the Financial Crisis
Federal Issues – Critical Concerns
High-cost Loan Limit - expires 10/1/11
Future of Fannie and Freddie in flux - Increase
guarantee fee likely
FHA targeted for market share drop
Tax Reform on the horizon – MID?
QRM (Qualified Residential Mortgage)
20% Down – Is the future of the 30 year
mortgage in doubt?
U.S. Economic Outlook
• 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011f 2012f
US GDP 3.1% 2.7% 2.0% 0.0% -2.6% 2.9% 1.7% 2.0%
Nonfarm Job Growth
1.7% 1.8% 1.1% -0.6% -4.4% -0.7% 1.0% 0.9%
Unemployment 5.1% 4.6% 4.6% 5.8% 9.3% 9.6% 9.0% 8.9%
CPI 3.4% 3.2% 2.8% 3.8% -0.4% 1.6% 3.2% 2.3%
Real Disposable Income, % Change
1.3% 4.0% 2.2% 0.5% 0.9% 1.4% 1.7% 1.5%
SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
Forecast Date: September 2011
California Economic Outlook
• 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011f 2012f
Nonfarm Job Growth
1.8% 1.7% 0.8% -1.3% -6.0% -1.4% 1.5% 2.1%
Unemployment Rate
5.4% 4.9% 5.4% 7.2% 11.4% 12.4% 12.0% 11.2%
Population Growth
1.2% 1.1% 1.1% 1.2% 1.1% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9%
Real Disposable Income, % Change
1.3% 3.4% 1.5% 0.1% -2.2% 1.6% 1.5% 2.0%
SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
Forecast Date: September 2011
California Housing Market
California Sales of Existing Homes and Median Price
Housing Cycle Comparisons 1970- 2011UNITS/MEDIAN PRICE $
SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
19
70
19
72
19
74
19
76
19
78
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
Sales of Existing Detached Homes Median Price
-61% -25%
-44%
Sales of Existing Detached Homes and Consumer Confidence• California, September 2011 Sales: 487,940 Units, Up 0.4% YTD, Up 4.1% YTY
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
Ja
n-0
0
Ja
n-0
1
Ja
n-0
2
Ja
n-0
3
Ja
n-0
4
Ja
n-0
5
Ja
n-0
6
Ja
n-0
7
Ja
n-0
8
Ja
n-0
9
Ja
n-1
0
Ja
n-1
1
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Sales Consumer Confidence INDEXUNITS
SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®; The Conference Board
*Sales are seasonally adjusted and annualized
P: May-07$594,530
T: Feb-09$245,230
-59% frompeak
$0
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
$700,000Ja
n-0
0
Jan
-01
Jan
-02
Jan
-03
Jan
-04
Jan
-05
Jan
-06
Jan
-07
Jan
-08
Jan
-09
Jan
-10
Jan
-11
Median Price of Existing Detached HomesCalifornia, September 2011: $287,440, Down 8.3% YTY
SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
California’s Million-Dollar Home Sales
22,52918,621
24,43642,506
50,01054,773
36,99020,595
15,70310,658
13,1018,906
5,3663,762
2,6512,0172,5222,2982,8903,3623,7734,271
2,718
0
10
00
0
20
00
0
30
00
0
40
00
0
50
00
0
60
00
0
19881989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010
Source: DataQuick Information Systems
Year
Number of Homes
Unsold Inventory IndexCalifornia, September 2011: 5.1 Months
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Ja
n-8
8
Ja
n-8
9
Ja
n-9
0
Ja
n-9
1
Ja
n-9
2
Ja
n-9
3
Ja
n-9
4
Ja
n-9
5
Ja
n-9
6
Ja
n-9
7
Ja
n-9
8
Ja
n-9
9
Ja
n-0
0
Ja
n-0
1
Ja
n-0
2
Ja
n-0
3
Ja
n-0
4
Ja
n-0
5
Ja
n-0
6
Ja
n-0
7
Ja
n-0
8
Ja
n-0
9
Ja
n-1
0
Ja
n-1
1
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
MONTHS
Price Range (Thousand) Sep-10 Aug-11 Sep-11
$1,000K+ 11.1 9.1 10.0$750-1000K 6.8 6.2 6.1$500-750K 6.3 5.6 6.0$300-500K 5.6 5.2 5.4$0-300K 5.1 4.6 4.7
Unsold Inventory Index: Sept 2011(By Price Range: Months)
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Market Breakdown: Equity v. Distressed Sales
SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
REOs Short Sales Distressed Sales0%
20%
40%
60%
24.7%
19.3%
44.5%
25.2%
17.5%
42.9%
24.4%
18.9%
43.7%
Aug-10 Jul-11 Aug-11
Share of Distressed Sales to Total Sales
Tight Supply of Inventory for REO Sales
Equity Sales REO Sales Short Sales0123456789
5.7
2.6
8.1
Aug-11Unsold In-ventory Index (Months)
SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
REO & Short Sales: Southern California(Percent of Total Sales)
Los AngelesOrange
RiversideSan
Bernardino San Diego
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
20%12%
35% 49%
19%
24%
20%
26%14%
8%
Aug 2011
Short SalesREO Sales
SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
REO & Short Sales: Central Valley(Percent of Total Sales)
MaderaMerced
San BenitoSacramento
Kern
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
67%
36%37%
38% 41%
7%
23% 30%24% 19%
Aug 2011Short SalesREO Sales
SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
REO & Short Sales: Bay Area(Percent of Total Sales)
MarinNapa
San MateoSanta Clara
SolanoSonoma
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
13%28%
11%10%
45%
24%
15%
20%
15% 21%
26%
18%
Aug 2011
Short SalesREO Sales
California Foreclosure Inventory, September 2011
SOURCE: ForeclosureRadar.com
ForeclosuresSan Diego County
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
Q1
/89
Q1
/90
Q1
/91
Q1
/92
Q1
/93
Q1
/94
Q1
/95
Q1
/96
Q1
/97
Q1
/98
Q1
/99
Q1
/00
Q1
/01
Q1
/02
Q1
/03
Q1
/04
Q1
/05
Q1
/06
Q1
/07
Q1
/08
Q1
/09
Q1
/10
Q1
/11
SOURCE: Real Estate Research Council
San Diego• Preforeclosure: 2,251
Source: ForeclosureRadar.com as of 10/24/11
San Diego• Auction: 1,840
Source: ForeclosureRadar.com as of 10/24/11
San Diego• Bank Owned: 754
Source: ForeclosureRadar.com as of 10/24/11
Del Mar• Preforeclosure: 25 • Auction: 21 • Bank Owned: 5
Source: ForeclosureRadar.com as of 10/24/11
La Jolla• Preforeclosure: 66 • Auction: 73 • Bank Owned: 19
Source: ForeclosureRadar.com as of 10/24/11
Point Loma• Preforeclosure: 45 • Auction: 51 • Bank Owned: 23
Source: ForeclosureRadar.com as of 10/24/11
Rancho Santa Fe• Preforeclosure: 20 • Auction: 30 • Bank Owned: 2
Source: ForeclosureRadar.com as of 10/24/11
Murrieta• Preforeclosure: 481 • Auction: 430 • Bank Owned: 198
Source: ForeclosureRadar.com as of 10/24/11
Temecula• Preforeclosure: 459 • Auction: 359 • Bank Owned: 143
Source: ForeclosureRadar.com as of 10/24/11
Regional Housing Markets
San Diego CountyOctober 2011
Economic Profile
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®;The Conference Board
INDEXUNITS
Sales of Existing Detached Homes and Pacific West Consumer Confidence
San Diego County, Sept. 2011: 1,785 Units, Down 0.5% YTD, Up 6.1% YTY
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Ja
n-9
0
Ja
n-9
1
Ja
n-9
2
Ja
n-9
3
Ja
n-9
4
Ja
n-9
5
Ja
n-9
6
Ja
n-9
7
Ja
n-9
8
Ja
n-9
9
Ja
n-0
0
Ja
n-0
1
Ja
n-0
2
Ja
n-0
3
Ja
n-0
4
Ja
n-0
5
Ja
n-0
6
Ja
n-0
7
Ja
n-0
8
Ja
n-0
9
Ja
n-1
0
Ja
n-1
1
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Sales Consumer Confidence
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
UNITS
Sales of Existing Detached HomesSan Diego County, 2010: 20,257 Units, Down 6.7% YTY
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
19
89
19
92
19
95
19
98
20
01
20
04
20
07
20
10
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Ja
n
Fe
b
Ma
r
Ap
r
Ma
y
Ju
n
Ju
l
Au
g
Se
pt
Oc
t
No
v
De
c
2008
2009
2010
2011
ANNUAL MONTHLY
Median Price of Existing Detached HomesSan Diego County, September 2011: $364,180, Down 6.3% YTY
$0
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
$700,000J
an
-90
Ja
n-9
1
Ja
n-9
2
Ja
n-9
3
Ja
n-9
4
Ja
n-9
5
Ja
n-9
6
Ja
n-9
7
Ja
n-9
8
Ja
n-9
9
Ja
n-0
0
Ja
n-0
1
Ja
n-0
2
Ja
n-0
3
Ja
n-0
4
Ja
n-0
5
Ja
n-0
6
Ja
n-0
7
Ja
n-0
8
Ja
n-0
9
Ja
n-1
0
Ja
n-1
1
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Median Price Annual ComparisonSan Diego County, 2010: $385,740, Up 7.3% YTY
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
$-
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
$700,000
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
$-
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
Ja
n
Fe
b
Ma
r
Ap
r
Ma
y
Ju
n
Ju
l
Au
g
Se
pt
Oc
t
No
v
De
c
2008
2009
2010
2011
MONTHLYANNUAL
Median Home Sales PriceSan Diego County
SOURCE: DataQuick Information Systems. The price statistics are derived from all types of home sales -- new and existing, condos and single-family.
Aug-10 Aug-11Yearly %Change
ALPINE $417,000 $392,500 -5.9%
BONITA $475,000 $400,000 -15.8%
BONSALL $125,000 $340,000 172.0%
BORREGO SPRINGS $137,500 $91,500 -33.5%
BOULEVARD $130,000 $148,000 13.9%
CAMPO $155,000 $120,000 -22.6%
CARDIFF BY THE SEA $417,000 $737,500 76.9%
CARLSBAD $572,500 $545,000 -4.8%
CHULA VISTA $305,000 $325,000 6.6%
CORONADO $1,331,250 $1,437,500 8.0%
DEL MAR $925,000 $1,175,000 27.0%
DESCANSO $86,250 $280,000 224.6%
EL CAJON $265,000 $265,000 0.0%
Median Home Sales Price – Cont.San Diego County
SOURCE: DataQuick Information Systems. The price statistics are derived from all types of home sales -- new and existing, condos and single-family.
Aug-10 Aug-11Yearly %Change
ENCINITAS $680,000 $660,000 -2.9%
ESCONDIDO $305,000 $270,000 -11.5%
FALLBROOK $330,000 $340,000 3.0%
IMPERIAL BEACH $230,000 $278,000 20.9%
JAMUL $405,000 $347,500 -14.2%
JULIAN $370,000 $300,500 -18.8%
LA JOLLA $670,000 $825,000 23.1%
LA MESA $320,000 $295,000 -7.8%
LAKESIDE $290,000 $248,500 -14.3%
LEMON GROVE $242,000 $247,000 2.1%
NATIONAL CITY $182,500 $204,000 11.8%
OCEANSIDE $293,000 $282,500 -3.6%
PALA N/A $407,500 N/A
Median Home Sales Price – Cont.San Diego County
SOURCE: DataQuick Information Systems. The price statistics are derived from all types of home sales -- new and existing, condos and single-family.
Aug-10 Aug-11Yearly %Change
PINE VALLEY n/a $343,500 n/a
POWAY $443,500 $405,000 -8.7%
RAMONA $347,000 $277,500 -20.0%
RANCHO SANTA FE $1,532,500 $1,425,000 -7.0%
SAN DIEGO $345,000 $315,000 -8.7%
SAN MARCOS $365,000 $320,000 -12.3%
SAN YSIDRO $120,000 $106,000 -11.7%
SANTEE $342,000 $289,500 -15.4%
SOLANA BEACH $1,013,500 $760,000 -25.0%
SPRING VALLEY $261,000 $235,500 -9.8%
VALLEY CENTER $415,000 $376,500 -9.3%
VISTA $312,000 $265,500 -14.9%
SAN DIEGO COUNTY $340,000 $320,000 -5.9%
Asking Rents for Class A&B ApartmentsSan Diego County, 2011 Q3: $1,404 Up 1.7% YTY
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
Q3
/97
Q2
/98
Q1
/99
Q4
/99
Q3
/00
Q2
/01
Q1
/02
Q4
/02
Q3
/03
Q2
/04
Q1
/05
Q4
/05
Q3
/06
Q2
/07
Q1
/08
Q4
/08
Q3
/09
Q2
/10
Q1
/11
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®; REALFACTS
Vacancy Rates for Class A&B ApartmentsSan Diego County, 2011 Q3: 4.5%
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®; REALFACTS
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
19
90
19
93
Q4
/95
Q2
/97
Q1
/98
Q4
/98
Q3
/99
Q2
/00
Q1
/01
Q4
/01
Q3
/02
Q2
/03
Q1
/04
Q4
/04
Q3
/05
Q2
/06
Q1
/07
Q4
/07
Q3
/08
Q2
/09
Q1
/10
Q4
/10
Q3
/11
VACANCY RATE
San Diego
Sales of Residential Homes• San Diego, September 2011: 994 Units
• Down 13.6% MTM, Down 3.3% YTY
SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
Median Price of Residential Homes• San Diego, September 2011: $302,150
• Down 3.2% MTM, Down 8.0% YTY
SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
For Sale Properties• San Diego, September 2011: 6,565 Unit
• Down 8.6% MTM, Down 20.8% YTY
SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
Months Supply of Inventory • San Diego, September 2011: 4.8 Months
SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
Del Mar
Sales of Residential Homes• Del Mar, September 2011: 24 Units
• Up 41.2% MTM, Up 33.3% YTY
SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
Median Price of Residential Homes• Del Mar, September 2011: $872,500• Down 20.3% MTM, Down 29.6% YTY
SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
For Sale Properties• Del Mar, September 2011: 218 Units• Down 4.0% MTM, Down 17.7% YTY
SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
Months Supply of Inventory • Del Mar, September 2011: 8.9 Months
SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
La Jolla
Sales of Residential Homes• La Jolla, September 2011: 46 Units
• Even 0% MTM, Up 2.2% YTY
SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
Median Price of Residential Homes• La Jolla, September 2011: $812,500• Down 5.0% MTM, Down 18.3% YTY
SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
For Sale Properties• La Jolla, September 2011: 596 Units• Down 3.9% MTM, Down 12.1% YTY
SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
Months Supply of Inventory • La Jolla, September 2011: 7.7 Months
SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
Point Loma
Sales of Residential Homes• Point Loma, September 2011: 29 Units
• Down 3.3% MTM, Up 38.1% YTY
SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
Median Price of Residential Homes• Point Loma, September 2011: $685,000
• Up 24.5% MTM, Up 5.4% YTY
SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
For Sale Properties• Point Loma, September 2011: 233 Units
• Down 9.0% MTM, Down 21.0% YTY
SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
Months Supply of Inventory • Point Loma, September 2011: 5.0 Months
SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
Rancho Santa Fe
Sales of Residential Homes• Rancho Santa Fe, September 2011: 20 Units
• Up 33.3% MTM, Up 5.3% YTY
SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
Median Price of Residential Homes• Rancho Santa Fe, Sept. 2011: $1,588,750
• Up 2.6% MTM, Down 30.9% YTY
SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
For Sale Properties• Rancho Santa Fe, Sept. 2011: 401 Units
• Down 1.7% MTM, Down 17.3% YTY
SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
Months Supply of Inventory • Rancho Santa Fe, September 2011: 15.7 Months
SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
Murrieta
Sales of Residential Homes• Murrieta, September 2011: 187 Units• Down 14.2% MTM, Down 13.4% YTY
SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
Median Price of Residential Homes• Murrieta, September 2011: $237,000
• Down 1.2% MTM, Up 0.1% YTY
SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
For Sale Properties• Murrieta, September 2011: 1,145 Units
• Down 7.2% MTM, Down 25.1% YTY
SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
Months Supply of Inventory • Murrieta, September 2011: 3.4 Months
SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
Temecula
Sales of Residential Homes• Temecula, September 2011: 162 Units• Down 17.8% MTM, Down 23.2% YTY
SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
Median Price of Residential Homes• Temecula, September 2011: $258,730
• Down 6.6% MTM, Down 1.2% YTY
SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
For Sale Properties• Temecula, September 2011: 942 Units
• Down 7.2% MTM, Down 20.4% YTY
SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
Months Supply of Inventory • Temecula, September 2011: 2.7 Months
SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
2011 Annual Housing Market Survey
Equity vs. REO vs. Short Sales
Equity Sales REO Sales Short Sales
Share of Total Sales 58.7% 19.7% 20.2%
Median Home Price $431,000 $240,000 $287,000
Square Footage 1,783 1,500 1,600
Price / SF $250 $112 $175
Sales-to-List Price Ratio 95.9% 98.0% 95.9%
% of Sales With Multiple Offers 35.2% 58.3% 57.5%
Avg. Number of Offers 3.0 3.0 3.6
% of All Cash Sales 25.5% 34.0% 23.3%
Days on MLS 67 50 141
Days in Escrow 35 35 45
1 in 3 Sellers Sold Because They Were in Distress
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%30%Sold due to foreclosure/Short sale/Default
Q. What was the single most important reason for selling/buying the property?
Net Cash to Sellers
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$75,000
Median
Q. What was the net cash gain or net loss to the seller as a result of this sale?
Proportion of Sellers Planning to Repurchase
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Q. Is the seller planning on purchasing another home?
Reasons Sellers Not Planning to Buy Another Home
Q. Why is the seller not planning to purchase another home?
2.7%
4.7%
4.9%
5.7%
10.9%
11.4%
19.8%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Seller is a lender/bank
Seller prefers to have less financial obligation
Poor credit background
Lack of cash for down payment
Out of work/unemployment
Decide to live with family/friends
Waiting for market to bottom
Reasons For SellingAll Home Sellers
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
Foreclosure/ShortSale/Default
Change in Family Status
Retirement/Move toRetirement Community
Investment/ TaxConsderations
Desired Better Location
Desired Smaller Home
Changed Jobs
Desired Larger Home
Other
Q. What was the single most important reason for selling/buying the property?
Cash Sales on the Rise
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
% of All Sales
Investments & Second/Vacation Homes
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
17%
7%
Investment/Rental Property Vacation/Second Home
Foreign Buyers
8%
5%6%6%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
2008 2009 2010 2011
% of Foreign Buyers
Q. Was the buyer a foreign buyer?
California Housing Market Forecast
Forecast Progress Report
2010 Projected October
2010
2010 Actual
2011 Forecast October
2010
2011 Projected
SFH Resales (000s)
492.0 491.5 502.0 491.1
% Change -10.0% -10.1% 2.0% -0.1%Median Price ($000s)
$306.5 $303.1 $312.5 $291.0
% Change 11.5% 10.2% 2.0% -4.0%
Source: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Forecast Date: September 2011 vs October 2010
California Housing Market Outlook
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011f 2012f
SFH Resales (000s)
625.0 477.5 346.9 441.8 546.9 491.5 491.1 496.2
% Change 0.03% -23.6% -27.3% 27.3% 23.8% -10.1% -0.1% 1.0%
Median Price ($000s)
$522.7 $556.4 $560.3 $348.5 $275.0 $303.1 $291.0 $296.0
% Change 16.0% 6.5% 0.7% -37.8% -21.1% 10.2% -4.0% 1.7%
30-Yr FRM 5.9% 6.4% 6.3% 6.0% 5.1% 4.7% 4.5% 4.7%
1-Yr ARM 4.5% 5.5% 5.6% 5.2% 4.7% 3.5% 3.0% 3.1%
Source: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Forecast Date: September 2011
Closing Thoughts
Direction of Home Prices: Sellers Skeptical; Buyers Hopeful
Sellers Buyers0%
10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Down Flat Unsure Up
Q: Do you think home prices in your neighborhood will go up, down or stay flat in one year, five years and 10 years?
Real Estate: It’s Time To Buy Again
SOURCE: “Real estate: It’s time to buy again” Fortune Magazine’s 3/28/11 article written by Shawn Tully
“Forget stocks. Don't bet on gold. After four years of plunging home prices, the most attractive asset
class in America is housing.”
8 in 10 Americans Agree Buying a Home is the Best Investment One Can Make
SOURCE: Pew Research Center’s “Home Sweet Home. Still. Five Years After the Bubble Burst”
8 in 10 Renters Would Like to Buy in the Future
“…renters are hardly immune to the allure of homeownership, even in the face of the five-year decline in prices. Asked if they rent out of choice or because they cannot afford to buy a home,
just 24% say they rent out of choice.”
SOURCE: Pew Research Center’s “Home Sweet Home. Still. Five Years After the Bubble Burst”
C.A.R. Strategic Planning Book Pics
Thank You
www.car.org.marketdata
lesliea@car.org
top related