asiahorcs joint symposium 2009, nagoya …...2 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 year 1995 2000 2005 u u 0.6...
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Professor Barry W. BrookSir Hubert Wilkins Chair of Climate Change
Director of Climate Science, Environment InstituteSchool of Earth and Environmental Sciences
The University of AdelaideEmail: barry.brook@adelaide.edu.au
ASIAHORCs Joint Symposium 2009, Nagoya
Integrating bioclimate with population models to improve forecasts of species
extinctions under climate change
Climate Change Science
2001-2007 Mean Surface Temperature Anomaly (◦C)Base Period = 1951-80, Global Mean Anomaly = +0.54
Current and projected impacts
Synergies involved in global change
Next generation methods for assessing extinction risk due to climate synergies
Global climate modelling and downscaling
Species distribution and niche modelling
Cou
nt
abundance ~ soil fertility + wetness2 + radiation3
Demographic population viability
?
? ?
(pollen evidence)Primary refugium
Primary refugium(no pollen evidence)
Secondary refugium
500 km
?
Putting the elements together
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