challenges and potential for future mobility.€¦ · accidents / fatalities / injured persons /...

Dr. Thomas Helmer, BMW AG

SESAR Innovation Days | 11.2017

VEHICLE AUTOMATION.CHALLENGES AND POTENTIAL FOR FUTURE MOBILITY.

ROAD TRAFFIC: MANY INDIVIDUALS WITH LITTLE OVERALL MANAGEMENT.A SHORT GLANCE AT “TYPICAL” SITUATIONS…

Vehicle Automation | SESAR Innovation Days | 11.2017

Source: www.youtube.com/results?search_query=simple+solition+to+traffic

THE TECHNOLOGY OF AUTONOMOUS DRIVING HAS A GREAT IMPACT FOR OUR CUSTOMERS AND THE COMMUNITY.


HIGH-PERFORMANCE-COMPUTING

ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE

COMPUTER VISION

SENSOR RAW DATA PROCESSING

SYSTEM SAFETY AND ROBUSTNESS

LESS ACCIDENTS

LESS PARKING LOT SEARCH

LESS CO2

MORE FLEXIBILITY

MORE SAFETY

MORE COMFORT

MORE TIME

VALIDATION METHODS

LESS TRAFFIC

Source: BMW

AIR AND ROAD TRAFFIC: THE SAFETY SITUATION.


425*

* avg. 2012-2016, ICAO Safety Report 2017

Fatalities per year (worldwide)

1 250 000

WHO: Global status report on road safety 2015

Relative risk per bil. passenger miles (US)

Road traffic Air traffic

ROAD TRAFFIC SAFETY BECOMES A GLOBAL CONCERN.STRONG DIFFERENCES AROUND THE WORLD REGARDING MODALITY AND RISK.


Leading cause of death

Source: WHO: Global status report on road safety 2015

DEVELOPMENT OF ROAD TRAFFIC SAFETY. EXAMPLE GERMANY. SAFETY MEASURES SHOW EFFECT.


Example Germany: Reduction of fatalities from 1970 (21332) to 2016 (3206) by approx. 6/7.

EU-28 2016: 25500 fatalities

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

300%

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015Accid

ents

/ f

ata

litie

s /

inju

red p

ers

ons / m

ileage (

1970 =

100%

)

Year

Time series accident data 1970 – 2016, Germany

Injured persons

Fatalities

Active Safety

Passive Safety

Mileage

Accidents

3206 (15%)

396666 (69%)

2,6 Mio. (186%)

766 bil. km (305%)

Source: Federal Statistical Office DESTATIS.de

US 2016: 37461 fatalities

Sources:

EU: European Commission - Fact Sheet, MEMO/17/675

US: 2016 Fatal Motor Vehicle Crashes: Overview, DOT HS 812 456

LEVEL OF AUTOMATION FOR ON-ROAD VEHICLES.


HANDS ONEYES ON

NO AUTOMATION

HANDS ONEYES ON

DRIVER ASSISTANCE

HANDS TEMP. OFFEYES TEMP. OFF

PARTIAL AUTOMATION

HANDS OFFEYES OFF

HANDS OFFMIND OFF

HANDS OFFDRIVER OFF

FULL AUTOMATION

CONDITINAL AUTOMATION

HIGHAUTOMATION

No driver

No take over requestTake over requestLongitudinal

and lateral controlLongitudinal or lateral control

No active assistance system

Longitudinal orlateral control

Traffic control Awareness for take over No driver intervention

TASK OFTHE DRIVER

TASK OFTHE CAR

0 1 2 3 4 5

TRANSITION OF RESPONSIBILITY (control and guidance)HUMAN MACHINE

Source: SAE J3016, Taxonomy and Definitions for Terms Related to Driving Automation Systems for On-Road Motor Vehicles.

ADVANCED DRIVER ASSISTANCE SYSTEMS.CURRENT STATE OF THE ART: BMW X3 SERIES.


Source: BMW Nederland www.youtube.com/watch?v=v-ok6wnqQ1s

ADVANCED DRIVER ASSISTANCE IN THE NEW BMW 5 SERIES.COMFORT AND SAFETY AT THE HIGHEST LEVEL.


Crossing traffic warning rear / front

Active cruise control with Stop&Go function

Lane keeping assistant with active side collision protection

Steering and lane control assistant

Speed Limit Assist

Panorama View

Active Park Distance Control

Parking assistant

Top View

3D View

Lateral parking aidNight Vision

BMW Selective Beam

Remote Control Parking

Distance information

Rear collision prevention

Lane change warning

Lane departure warning

Speed limit and No Pass information

Approach control warning with braking function

Speed Limit Device

Wrong Way Assist

Crossroad Assist

Top View Remote

Source: BMW

MORE TIME, NEW MOBILITY, INCREASED EFFICIENCY, DIFFERENT CITIES, ...


Source (t.l. clockwise): autovolts.com; globalspec.com; wordpresscom; 2025ad.com; inserts (t.l. clockwise): techmalak.com; scania.com; abc7news.com

ROAD AND AIR TRAFFIC. NEW CONCEPTS COULD EXTEND ROAD TRAFFIC TO THE THIRD DIMENSION.


Source (l. to. r.): Daimler; theverge.com

ROAD AND AIR TRAFFIC.DIFFERENT TRANSPORT SYSTEMS AND DIFFERENT OPERATORS.

− Highly trained personnel

− Dedicated flight corridors

− Exclusive infrastructure / overall traffic control

− …


− Inhomogeneous driver groups (experienced / inexperienced, old / young, etc.)

− Mixed infrastructure with other traffic participants

− No overall traffic management or control

− …

Source (l. to. r.): BMW, shutterstock.com; eurocontrol.int; lufthansa.com

THE “OPTIMAL” LEVEL OF AUTOMATION DEPENDS ON THE DRIVING TASK.ACTIVATION MODEL FOLLOWING YERKES / DODSON (1908).


Difficulty of driving task

Performanceof the driver

Delegation

of tasksSafety

functions

Information /

foresight

ideal„Bored out“ „Burned out“

Need ofassistance

or automation

OPTIMUM

Requirements≙

Performance

UNDERLOAD OVERLOAD

BOREDOM STRESSCONTROL,

FLOW

Maximum performance by the human can be reached at a medium level of strain.

Source: based on http://www.viriya.net/jabref/the_relation_of_strength_

of_stimulus_to_rapidity_of_habit-formation.pdf

ASSISTANCE AIMS AT THE COMBINATION OF ADVANTAGES OF BOTH HUMAN AND MACHINE IN THE DRIVER-VEHICLE SYSTEM.


No susceptibility to fatigue, stress or distraction

Objective measuring and assessment of physical values

such as distance, relative speed or acceleration

Fast pre-programmed reaction with high level of precision

Precise and reliable repetition of pre-defined processes

Flexibility to respond to the situation as required

Rapid decision-making, even in highly complex situations

Forward-thinking responses / anticipation

Rapid interpretation of (previously unknown)

situationsStrongly developed ability to

improviseInstantaneous ethical

assessment of situations

Source: BMW

Continuous improvement of collective knowledge by

learning

THE HUMAN IS NOT MADE FOR MONITORING TASKS.GENERAL EFFECTS OF AUTOMATION ARE WELL KNOWN.


The more advanced a control system is, so the more crucial may be the contribution of the human operator (Bainbridge, 1983)

Humans are not built for monitoring tasks (Reason et al. 1990)

Drivers engage more in non-driving related tasks when driving automated (Carsten et al. 2012)

Monitoring drivers are less likely to intervene (Gold et al. 2013)

Sourc

e p

ictu

re:

BM

W

99% boredom and 1% panic fear (Kraiss, 1994)

SPECIFIC CHALLENGES OF VEHICLE AUTOMATION.


Certification

Acceptance

Reliability

Safety

Security

Situation awareness

Mode awareness

Loss of skill

Take over process

Risks of automation

Liability

Test / validation

Ethics

Overreliance in automation

Trust

INCREASED VEHICLE AUTOMATION.WHERE ARE WE TODAY?


Sourc

e: B

MW

DEPLOYMENT SCENARIOS.DRIVING SPEED & SCENARIO COMPLEXITY AS KEY FACTORS.


Driving Speed

L2:e.g. BMW 7&5-series, today

L3/L4:1st Generation (L3) >2020

2nd Generation (L4)

L4/5:1st Generation >2025(Phase-In >2020)

Com

plex

ity T

raff

ic S

cena

rio

HighwayTravelling Comfort & Safety

Next Generation?

Inner CityNew Mobility Concepts

RuralFlow & Safety

Source: BMW

ONE POSSIBLE FUTURE:ADEQUATE ASSISTANCE AND AUTOMATION IN EVERY SITUATION.


Sourc

e: B

MW

CONCLUSION.

Vehicle Automation | SESAR Innovation Days | 11.2017 Seite 20

1Automation promises new business models, increased traffic safety, and improved traffic efficiency.

2Understanding the driver, traffic situations and related driving tasks is essential for successful driver assistance and automation.

3Increasing automation poses new challenges to human-machine-interaction as well as testing & validation of functions.

4The successful introduction and full realization of potentials of automation in road traffic depends on a comprehensive knowledge of human, technology, and traffic.

IMPLICATIONS FOR CONDITIONAL AUTOMATION (L3).THE DRIVER WILL REMAIN A CRITICAL PART.


The driver remains the fallback level for scenarios the automation is not able to handle. Driver performance is therefore crucial for ensuring safety for highly automated vehicles.

If a system limit is encountered, the driver must take over control within a given period.

TAKE OVER SCENARIO FOR L3 HIGHWAY PILOT.


Source: BMW

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