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Professor Barry W. Brook Sir Hubert Wilkins Chair of Climate Change Director of Climate Science, Environment Institute School of Earth and Environmental Sciences The University of Adelaide Email: [email protected] ASIAHORCs Joint Symposium 2009, Nagoya Integrating bioclimate with population models to improve forecasts of species extinctions under climate change

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Page 1: ASIAHORCs Joint Symposium 2009, Nagoya …...2 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 Year 1995 2000 2005 u U 0.6 0.4 0.2 -0.2 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 Year 1995 2000 2005 20 15 10 -10 1950 2010

Professor Barry W. BrookSir Hubert Wilkins Chair of Climate Change

Director of Climate Science, Environment InstituteSchool of Earth and Environmental Sciences

The University of AdelaideEmail: [email protected]

ASIAHORCs Joint Symposium 2009, Nagoya

Integrating bioclimate with population models to improve forecasts of species

extinctions under climate change

mailto:[email protected]
Page 2: ASIAHORCs Joint Symposium 2009, Nagoya …...2 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 Year 1995 2000 2005 u U 0.6 0.4 0.2 -0.2 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 Year 1995 2000 2005 20 15 10 -10 1950 2010

Climate Change Science

Page 3: ASIAHORCs Joint Symposium 2009, Nagoya …...2 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 Year 1995 2000 2005 u U 0.6 0.4 0.2 -0.2 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 Year 1995 2000 2005 20 15 10 -10 1950 2010
Page 4: ASIAHORCs Joint Symposium 2009, Nagoya …...2 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 Year 1995 2000 2005 u U 0.6 0.4 0.2 -0.2 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 Year 1995 2000 2005 20 15 10 -10 1950 2010
Page 5: ASIAHORCs Joint Symposium 2009, Nagoya …...2 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 Year 1995 2000 2005 u U 0.6 0.4 0.2 -0.2 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 Year 1995 2000 2005 20 15 10 -10 1950 2010
Page 6: ASIAHORCs Joint Symposium 2009, Nagoya …...2 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 Year 1995 2000 2005 u U 0.6 0.4 0.2 -0.2 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 Year 1995 2000 2005 20 15 10 -10 1950 2010

2001-2007 Mean Surface Temperature Anomaly (◦C)Base Period = 1951-80, Global Mean Anomaly = +0.54

Page 7: ASIAHORCs Joint Symposium 2009, Nagoya …...2 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 Year 1995 2000 2005 u U 0.6 0.4 0.2 -0.2 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 Year 1995 2000 2005 20 15 10 -10 1950 2010
Page 8: ASIAHORCs Joint Symposium 2009, Nagoya …...2 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 Year 1995 2000 2005 u U 0.6 0.4 0.2 -0.2 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 Year 1995 2000 2005 20 15 10 -10 1950 2010
Page 9: ASIAHORCs Joint Symposium 2009, Nagoya …...2 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 Year 1995 2000 2005 u U 0.6 0.4 0.2 -0.2 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 Year 1995 2000 2005 20 15 10 -10 1950 2010
Page 10: ASIAHORCs Joint Symposium 2009, Nagoya …...2 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 Year 1995 2000 2005 u U 0.6 0.4 0.2 -0.2 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 Year 1995 2000 2005 20 15 10 -10 1950 2010

Current and projected impacts

Page 11: ASIAHORCs Joint Symposium 2009, Nagoya …...2 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 Year 1995 2000 2005 u U 0.6 0.4 0.2 -0.2 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 Year 1995 2000 2005 20 15 10 -10 1950 2010
Page 12: ASIAHORCs Joint Symposium 2009, Nagoya …...2 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 Year 1995 2000 2005 u U 0.6 0.4 0.2 -0.2 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 Year 1995 2000 2005 20 15 10 -10 1950 2010
Page 13: ASIAHORCs Joint Symposium 2009, Nagoya …...2 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 Year 1995 2000 2005 u U 0.6 0.4 0.2 -0.2 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 Year 1995 2000 2005 20 15 10 -10 1950 2010
Page 14: ASIAHORCs Joint Symposium 2009, Nagoya …...2 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 Year 1995 2000 2005 u U 0.6 0.4 0.2 -0.2 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 Year 1995 2000 2005 20 15 10 -10 1950 2010
Page 15: ASIAHORCs Joint Symposium 2009, Nagoya …...2 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 Year 1995 2000 2005 u U 0.6 0.4 0.2 -0.2 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 Year 1995 2000 2005 20 15 10 -10 1950 2010

Synergies involved in global change

Page 16: ASIAHORCs Joint Symposium 2009, Nagoya …...2 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 Year 1995 2000 2005 u U 0.6 0.4 0.2 -0.2 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 Year 1995 2000 2005 20 15 10 -10 1950 2010
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Page 18: ASIAHORCs Joint Symposium 2009, Nagoya …...2 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 Year 1995 2000 2005 u U 0.6 0.4 0.2 -0.2 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 Year 1995 2000 2005 20 15 10 -10 1950 2010
Page 19: ASIAHORCs Joint Symposium 2009, Nagoya …...2 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 Year 1995 2000 2005 u U 0.6 0.4 0.2 -0.2 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 Year 1995 2000 2005 20 15 10 -10 1950 2010
Page 20: ASIAHORCs Joint Symposium 2009, Nagoya …...2 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 Year 1995 2000 2005 u U 0.6 0.4 0.2 -0.2 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 Year 1995 2000 2005 20 15 10 -10 1950 2010
Page 21: ASIAHORCs Joint Symposium 2009, Nagoya …...2 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 Year 1995 2000 2005 u U 0.6 0.4 0.2 -0.2 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 Year 1995 2000 2005 20 15 10 -10 1950 2010

Next generation methods for assessing extinction risk due to climate synergies

Page 22: ASIAHORCs Joint Symposium 2009, Nagoya …...2 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 Year 1995 2000 2005 u U 0.6 0.4 0.2 -0.2 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 Year 1995 2000 2005 20 15 10 -10 1950 2010
Page 23: ASIAHORCs Joint Symposium 2009, Nagoya …...2 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 Year 1995 2000 2005 u U 0.6 0.4 0.2 -0.2 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 Year 1995 2000 2005 20 15 10 -10 1950 2010
Page 24: ASIAHORCs Joint Symposium 2009, Nagoya …...2 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 Year 1995 2000 2005 u U 0.6 0.4 0.2 -0.2 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 Year 1995 2000 2005 20 15 10 -10 1950 2010

Global climate modelling and downscaling

Page 25: ASIAHORCs Joint Symposium 2009, Nagoya …...2 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 Year 1995 2000 2005 u U 0.6 0.4 0.2 -0.2 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 Year 1995 2000 2005 20 15 10 -10 1950 2010
Page 26: ASIAHORCs Joint Symposium 2009, Nagoya …...2 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 Year 1995 2000 2005 u U 0.6 0.4 0.2 -0.2 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 Year 1995 2000 2005 20 15 10 -10 1950 2010
Page 27: ASIAHORCs Joint Symposium 2009, Nagoya …...2 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 Year 1995 2000 2005 u U 0.6 0.4 0.2 -0.2 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 Year 1995 2000 2005 20 15 10 -10 1950 2010
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Page 29: ASIAHORCs Joint Symposium 2009, Nagoya …...2 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 Year 1995 2000 2005 u U 0.6 0.4 0.2 -0.2 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 Year 1995 2000 2005 20 15 10 -10 1950 2010
Page 30: ASIAHORCs Joint Symposium 2009, Nagoya …...2 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 Year 1995 2000 2005 u U 0.6 0.4 0.2 -0.2 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 Year 1995 2000 2005 20 15 10 -10 1950 2010

Species distribution and niche modelling

Page 31: ASIAHORCs Joint Symposium 2009, Nagoya …...2 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 Year 1995 2000 2005 u U 0.6 0.4 0.2 -0.2 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 Year 1995 2000 2005 20 15 10 -10 1950 2010

Cou

nt

abundance ~ soil fertility + wetness2 + radiation3

Page 32: ASIAHORCs Joint Symposium 2009, Nagoya …...2 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 Year 1995 2000 2005 u U 0.6 0.4 0.2 -0.2 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 Year 1995 2000 2005 20 15 10 -10 1950 2010
Page 33: ASIAHORCs Joint Symposium 2009, Nagoya …...2 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 Year 1995 2000 2005 u U 0.6 0.4 0.2 -0.2 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 Year 1995 2000 2005 20 15 10 -10 1950 2010
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Page 37: ASIAHORCs Joint Symposium 2009, Nagoya …...2 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 Year 1995 2000 2005 u U 0.6 0.4 0.2 -0.2 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 Year 1995 2000 2005 20 15 10 -10 1950 2010

Demographic population viability

Page 38: ASIAHORCs Joint Symposium 2009, Nagoya …...2 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 Year 1995 2000 2005 u U 0.6 0.4 0.2 -0.2 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 Year 1995 2000 2005 20 15 10 -10 1950 2010
Page 39: ASIAHORCs Joint Symposium 2009, Nagoya …...2 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 Year 1995 2000 2005 u U 0.6 0.4 0.2 -0.2 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 Year 1995 2000 2005 20 15 10 -10 1950 2010

?

? ?

(pollen evidence)Primary refugium

Primary refugium(no pollen evidence)

Secondary refugium

500 km

?

Page 40: ASIAHORCs Joint Symposium 2009, Nagoya …...2 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 Year 1995 2000 2005 u U 0.6 0.4 0.2 -0.2 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 Year 1995 2000 2005 20 15 10 -10 1950 2010
Page 41: ASIAHORCs Joint Symposium 2009, Nagoya …...2 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 Year 1995 2000 2005 u U 0.6 0.4 0.2 -0.2 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 Year 1995 2000 2005 20 15 10 -10 1950 2010
Page 42: ASIAHORCs Joint Symposium 2009, Nagoya …...2 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 Year 1995 2000 2005 u U 0.6 0.4 0.2 -0.2 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 Year 1995 2000 2005 20 15 10 -10 1950 2010

Putting the elements together

Page 43: ASIAHORCs Joint Symposium 2009, Nagoya …...2 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 Year 1995 2000 2005 u U 0.6 0.4 0.2 -0.2 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 Year 1995 2000 2005 20 15 10 -10 1950 2010
Page 44: ASIAHORCs Joint Symposium 2009, Nagoya …...2 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 Year 1995 2000 2005 u U 0.6 0.4 0.2 -0.2 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 Year 1995 2000 2005 20 15 10 -10 1950 2010
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8.1.- DOGMA CENTRAL BIOLOGÍA MOLECULAR TEMIN: NOBEL 1975 Retrotranscriptasa F. Crick 1970

1970 1975MHS ALUMNI STORIES 2010 - Mangum High ...mangumalumni.com/JoyArticles/Joy2010_Series8_1970and75.pdfMHS ALUMNI STORIES 2010 8th in a 10 Part Series 1970 AND 1975 HONOR YEARS

Sun City, AZ Model Home Brochure - 1970-1975 - "It's Showtime!"

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The Chicago American New York Times The Champaign … · The Chicago American, ... November 8, 1968 January 10, 1975 Newsweek Special Memos, 1970-1978 Percy, ... 1975 9/15/1975 11/24/1975

DOGMA CENTRAL BIOLOGÍA MOLECULAR TEMIN: NOBEL 1975 Retrotranscriptasa F. Crick 1970

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MANUAL DE FUNCIONAMIENTO CARRETILLAS … · Dimensiones Altura mín. del mástil mm 1970 1970 1975 1975 Altura ... Convertidor Transistor convertidor Transistor Convertidor Transistor

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John Scott Trotter papers 1908-1975, 1930-1970

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