17468460 creative problem solving
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Creative ProblemCreative Problem--solving and Decisionsolving and Decision--
makingmaking
Creative ProblemCreative Problem--solving and Decisionsolving and Decision--
makingmaking
Chapter 4Chapter 4Chapter 4Chapter 4
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Learning Outcomes
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Learning Outcomes (cont¶d)
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Christopher Columbus School of
Management? (1451-1506)
³When he left his port,he did not know where
he was going to, When he arrived, he did
not know where hewas,
When he returned, he
did not know where hehad come from.´
(Management Today,1998:14(4), May)
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Problem-solving and Decision-making
Problem
±A situation that exists when objectives are not
being met.
Problem-solving
±The process of taking corrective action to meetobjectives.
Decision-making
±The process of selecting an alternative course of
action that will solve a problem. Managers need to make proficient decisions
while performing the functions of management.
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Management, Decision-making, and
Problem-solving
The Relationship Among Management Functions,
Decision-making, and Problem-solving ±Managers need to make proficient decisions while
performing the functions of management.
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The Decision-
making Model
A six-step modelthat when properly
utilized increases
chances of success
in decision-making
and problem-solving.
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Decision-making Styles
Reflexive Style ±Makes quick decisions without taking the time to
get all the information that may be needed and
without considering all the alternatives.
Reflective Style ±Takes plenty of time to make decision, gathering
considerable information and analyzing several
alternatives.
Consistent ±Tends to make decisions without rushing or
wasting time.
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Types of Decisions
Programmed Decisions
±Recurring or routine situations in which the
decision-maker should use decision rules or
organisational policies and procedures to makethe decision.
Non-programmed Decisions
±Significant and non-recurring and non-routine
situations in which the decision-maker should usethe decision-making model.
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Decision-making Structure
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Decision-making Models
Rational Model (Classical Model)
±The decision-maker attempts to use optimizing ,
selecting the best possible alternative.
The Bounded Rationality Model
±The decision-maker uses sati sf icing , selecting the
first alternative that meets the minimal criteria for
solving the problem.
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Which Decision Model to Use
Exhibit 4±4a
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Decision-making Conditions
Certainty
±Each alternative¶s outcome is known in advance.
Risk
±Probabilities can be assigned to each alternative. Uncertainty
±Lack of information or knowledge makes the each
alternative unpredictable such that no
probabilities can be determined.
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Decision-making Conditions Continuum
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Potential Advantages and Disadvantages of
Using Group Decision-making
Potential Disadvantages
1. Wasted time and slower
decision making
2. Satisficing3. Domination and goal
displacement
4. Conformity and groupthink
Potential Advantages
1. Better quality decisions
2. More information,
alternatives, creativity, andinnovation
3. Better understanding of the
decision
4. Greater commitment to the
decision
5. Improved morale and
motivation
6. Good training
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When to Use Group or
Individual Decision-making
Exhibit 4±4c
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Relationship among:
Decision-Making StructureNonprogrammed Decision
(Significant, nonrecurring and nonroutine)Programmed Decision
(Nonsignificant, recurring, and routine)
Decision-Making Conditions
Uncertainty Risk Certainty
Decision-Making Model Bounded Rationality Model
Which Decision Model to Use
(Outcome of alternatives unpredictable) (Outcome of alternatives predictable)
(Optimizing) ( Satisficing)
When to Use Group or Individual Decision-making
Group Decisions Individual Decisions
Classifying the Opportunity or
Problem Continuums
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Define the Opportunity or Problem
Distinguish Symptoms from the Cause of theProblem
±List the observable and describable occurrences
(symptoms) that indicate a problem exists.
±Determine the cause of the problem. ±Removing the cause should cause the symptoms
to disappear or cease.
Symptom: Customer dissatisfaction
Cause: Poorly trained employees Solution: Implement customer relations training
program for employees
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Set Objectives and Criteria
Setting Objectives ±Involves establishing clear objectives that will
make for better decisions.
±Objectives state what the decisions should
accomplish in solving a problem or takingadvantage of an opportunity.
Setting Criteria
±Involves setting standards that an alternative must
meet to be selected as the decision that willaccomplish the objective.
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Generate Creative Alternatives
Innovation ±The implementation of a new idea
Product innovation (new things)
Process innovation (new way of doing things)
Creativity
±A way of thinking that generates new ideas
The Creative Process
±Preparation
±Incubation and illumination
±Evaluation
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Stages in the
Creative Process
Become familiar with the problem; generate
as many alternatives as possible.
Take some time before working on the
problem again to gain additional insight.
Before implementing the solution, evaluate
the alternative to be sure it is practical.
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Characteristics of Useful Information
Timeliness
Quality (Accuracy)
Completeness (Amount)
Relevance
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Group Decision-making Techniques
That Foster Creativity
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Generating Creative Alternatives
Brainstorming ±The process of suggesting many possible
alternatives without evaluation.
Synectics
±The process of generating novel alternativesthrough role playing and fantasizing.
Nominal Grouping
±The process of generating and evaluating
alternatives using a structured voting method thatincludes listing, recording, clarification, ranking,
discussion, and voting to select an alternative.
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Generating Creative Alternatives
Consensus Mapping (R ingi )
±The process of developing group agreement on a
solution to a problem.
Delphi Technique
±The process of using a series of confidential
questionnaires posed to experts to refine a
solution.
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Responses That Kill Creativity
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Analyzing the Feasibility of Alternatives
Quantitative Techniques
±Break-even analysis
±Capital budgeting
Payback Discounted cash flow
±Linear programming
±Queuing theory
±Probability theory
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The Kepner-Tregoe Method
1. Compare each alternative to the ³must´ alternative.
2. Rate each ³want´ criterion on a scale of 1 to 10 (10
being the most important).3. Assign a value of 1 to 10 (10 being the highest) to
how well each alternative meets the ³want´ criteria.
4. Compute the weighted score (WS) for each
alternative.5. Select the alternative with the highest total WS.
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The Kepner-Tregoe Method for Analyzing Alternatives
Must Criteria Car 1 Car 2 Car 3 Car 4<R30 000 Y Y Y Y
Within one week Y Y Y N
Want Criteria NB Meets criteria
Economy 7x 5 = 35 7 = 49 8 = 56
Low km 6x 6 = 36 4 = 24 5 = 60
Condition 10x 5 = 50 6 = 60 8 = 80
Cruise control 2x 1 = 2 0 = 0 0 = 0
Blue 3x 10 = 3 0 = 0 0 = 0
Total W.S. 126 133 136
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Cost-Benefit (Pros and Cons) Analysis
Cost-Benefit Analysis ±A technique for comparing the cost and benefit of
each alternative course of action using subjective
intuition and judgment along with math.
The Alternative Analysis Techniques Continuum:
Exhibit 4±10
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Plan, Implement, and Control
Plan ±Develop a plan of action and a schedule of
implementation.
Implement the Plan
±Communicate and delegate for direct action. Control
±Use checkpoints to determine whether the
alternative is solving the problem.
±Avoid esc alation of commitment to a badalternative.
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Decision Tree
Exhibit 4±11
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Situational Management: Decision-making (1)
Model 4±2a
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Tutorial
Use a method that applies both quantitative and qualitativetechniques for your decision to study in the Postgraduate
Programme of the Department of Management, UWC.
Method:
· Develop two ³MUST´ criteria· Identify three other tertiary institutions.
· Each member of the group identifies criteria.
· The group reaches consensus on the 10 most
appropriate ³WANT´ criteria.
· Use the Kepner-Tregoe Method
At the end of the Tutorial Session, hand in your groupwork
with each student¶s details
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