17468460 creative problem solving

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Creative ProblemCreative Problem--solving and Decisionsolving and Decision--

makingmaking

Creative ProblemCreative Problem--solving and Decisionsolving and Decision--

makingmaking

Chapter 4Chapter 4Chapter 4Chapter 4



4±2

Learning Outcomes



4±3

Learning Outcomes (cont¶d)



4±4

Christopher Columbus School of

Management? (1451-1506)

³When he left his port,he did not know where

he was going to, When he arrived, he did

not know where hewas,

When he returned, he

did not know where hehad come from.´

(Management Today,1998:14(4), May)



4±5

Problem-solving and Decision-making

Problem

±A situation that exists when objectives are not

being met.

Problem-solving

±The process of taking corrective action to meetobjectives.

Decision-making

±The process of selecting an alternative course of

action that will solve a problem. Managers need to make proficient decisions

while performing the functions of management.



4±6

Management, Decision-making, and

Problem-solving

The Relationship Among Management Functions,

Decision-making, and Problem-solving ±Managers need to make proficient decisions while

performing the functions of management.



4±7

The Decision-

making Model

A six-step modelthat when properly

utilized increases

chances of success

in decision-making

and problem-solving.



4±8

Decision-making Styles

Reflexive Style ±Makes quick decisions without taking the time to

get all the information that may be needed and

without considering all the alternatives.

Reflective Style ±Takes plenty of time to make decision, gathering

considerable information and analyzing several

alternatives.

Consistent ±Tends to make decisions without rushing or

wasting time.



4±9

Types of Decisions

Programmed Decisions

±Recurring or routine situations in which the

decision-maker should use decision rules or

organisational policies and procedures to makethe decision.

Non-programmed Decisions

±Significant and non-recurring and non-routine

situations in which the decision-maker should usethe decision-making model.



4±10

Decision-making Structure



4±11

Decision-making Models

Rational Model (Classical Model)

±The decision-maker attempts to use optimizing ,

selecting the best possible alternative.

The Bounded Rationality Model

±The decision-maker uses sati sf icing , selecting the

first alternative that meets the minimal criteria for

solving the problem.



4±12

Which Decision Model to Use

Exhibit 4±4a



4±13

Decision-making Conditions

Certainty

±Each alternative¶s outcome is known in advance.

Risk

±Probabilities can be assigned to each alternative. Uncertainty

±Lack of information or knowledge makes the each

alternative unpredictable such that no

probabilities can be determined.



4±14

Decision-making Conditions Continuum



4±15

Potential Advantages and Disadvantages of

Using Group Decision-making

Potential Disadvantages

1. Wasted time and slower

decision making

2. Satisficing3. Domination and goal

displacement

4. Conformity and groupthink

Potential Advantages

1. Better quality decisions

2. More information,

alternatives, creativity, andinnovation

3. Better understanding of the

decision

4. Greater commitment to the

decision

5. Improved morale and

motivation

6. Good training



4±16

When to Use Group or

Individual Decision-making

Exhibit 4±4c



4±17

Relationship among:

Decision-Making StructureNonprogrammed Decision

(Significant, nonrecurring and nonroutine)Programmed Decision

(Nonsignificant, recurring, and routine)

Decision-Making Conditions

Uncertainty Risk Certainty

Decision-Making Model Bounded Rationality Model

Which Decision Model to Use

(Outcome of alternatives unpredictable) (Outcome of alternatives predictable)

(Optimizing) ( Satisficing)

When to Use Group or Individual Decision-making

Group Decisions Individual Decisions

Classifying the Opportunity or

Problem Continuums



4±18

Define the Opportunity or Problem

Distinguish Symptoms from the Cause of theProblem

±List the observable and describable occurrences

(symptoms) that indicate a problem exists.

±Determine the cause of the problem. ±Removing the cause should cause the symptoms

to disappear or cease.

Symptom: Customer dissatisfaction

Cause: Poorly trained employees Solution: Implement customer relations training

program for employees



4±19

Set Objectives and Criteria

Setting Objectives ±Involves establishing clear objectives that will

make for better decisions.

±Objectives state what the decisions should

accomplish in solving a problem or takingadvantage of an opportunity.

Setting Criteria

±Involves setting standards that an alternative must

meet to be selected as the decision that willaccomplish the objective.



4±20

Generate Creative Alternatives

Innovation ±The implementation of a new idea

Product innovation (new things)

Process innovation (new way of doing things)

Creativity

±A way of thinking that generates new ideas

The Creative Process

±Preparation

±Incubation and illumination

±Evaluation



4±21

Stages in the

Creative Process

Become familiar with the problem; generate

as many alternatives as possible.

Take some time before working on the

problem again to gain additional insight.

Before implementing the solution, evaluate

the alternative to be sure it is practical.



4±22

Characteristics of Useful Information

Timeliness

Quality (Accuracy)

Completeness (Amount)

Relevance



4±23

Group Decision-making Techniques

That Foster Creativity



4±24

Generating Creative Alternatives

Brainstorming ±The process of suggesting many possible

alternatives without evaluation.

Synectics

±The process of generating novel alternativesthrough role playing and fantasizing.

Nominal Grouping

±The process of generating and evaluating

alternatives using a structured voting method thatincludes listing, recording, clarification, ranking,

discussion, and voting to select an alternative.



4±25

Generating Creative Alternatives

Consensus Mapping (R ingi )

±The process of developing group agreement on a

solution to a problem.

Delphi Technique

±The process of using a series of confidential

questionnaires posed to experts to refine a

solution.



4±26

Responses That Kill Creativity



4±27

Analyzing the Feasibility of Alternatives

Quantitative Techniques

±Break-even analysis

±Capital budgeting

Payback Discounted cash flow

±Linear programming

±Queuing theory

±Probability theory



4±28

The Kepner-Tregoe Method

1. Compare each alternative to the ³must´ alternative.

2. Rate each ³want´ criterion on a scale of 1 to 10 (10

being the most important).3. Assign a value of 1 to 10 (10 being the highest) to

how well each alternative meets the ³want´ criteria.

4. Compute the weighted score (WS) for each

alternative.5. Select the alternative with the highest total WS.



4±29

The Kepner-Tregoe Method for Analyzing Alternatives

Must Criteria Car 1 Car 2 Car 3 Car 4<R30 000 Y Y Y Y

Within one week Y Y Y N

Want Criteria NB Meets criteria

Economy 7x 5 = 35 7 = 49 8 = 56

Low km 6x 6 = 36 4 = 24 5 = 60

Condition 10x 5 = 50 6 = 60 8 = 80

Cruise control 2x 1 = 2 0 = 0 0 = 0

Blue 3x 10 = 3 0 = 0 0 = 0

Total W.S. 126 133 136



4±30

Cost-Benefit (Pros and Cons) Analysis

Cost-Benefit Analysis ±A technique for comparing the cost and benefit of

each alternative course of action using subjective

intuition and judgment along with math.

The Alternative Analysis Techniques Continuum:

Exhibit 4±10



4±31

Plan, Implement, and Control

Plan ±Develop a plan of action and a schedule of

implementation.

Implement the Plan

±Communicate and delegate for direct action. Control

±Use checkpoints to determine whether the

alternative is solving the problem.

±Avoid esc alation of commitment to a badalternative.



4±32

Decision Tree

Exhibit 4±11



4±33

Situational Management: Decision-making (1)

Model 4±2a



4±35

Tutorial

Use a method that applies both quantitative and qualitativetechniques for your decision to study in the Postgraduate

Programme of the Department of Management, UWC.

Method:

· Develop two ³MUST´ criteria· Identify three other tertiary institutions.

· Each member of the group identifies criteria.

· The group reaches consensus on the 10 most

appropriate ³WANT´ criteria.

· Use the Kepner-Tregoe Method

At the end of the Tutorial Session, hand in your groupwork

with each student¶s details



4±36



4±37



4±38

17468460 creative problem solving

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