15/3 -17 impact exponential technologies

Technology is determining our future

Paul Epping, Chapter leadMarch 15th

Chapter SU Dubai presentation

Who or what will be thinking for me?

#SUChapterDubai

TheMillenniumProject:63Nodes...andtworegionalnetworksinEuropeandLatinAmerica

Nodesidentifyparticipants,translatequestionnairesandreports,andconductinterviews,specialresearch,workshops,symposiums,andadvancedtraining.

aregroupsofexpertsandinstitutions thatconnectglobalandlocalviewsin:

Tunisia

Yerevan

Sri Lanka

When you change the way you look at things, the things you look at will change

Wayne Dyre

Driver of exponential growth of technology

Geological Clock

6

12

3

1

9

2

Proterozoic ? Multicellar

Animals

Landplants

Mammals

Humans

4.5 billion years

First tools

Extermination of big mammals

On the move

Extension of our stomach

Fire

The last 10 seconds

14

Exponential technological growthat reduced cost for performance

Bandwidth

Storage Cost

Computing Cost 0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

$pergBperSec.

$per1Mtransistors

$pergB

1992 Today

$

Time

Video conferencingDigital camera GPSScanningCalculator Cloud storage Digital dictaphoneMusic player Video playerEtc.

Software solutions for free

A gap that we usually don’t conceive as a gap

Examples of exponential technologies

Cognitive computing Nano technology Digital biology Genomics

Energy3D printing

DigitizationRobotics

The law of acceleration returns will be seen at the intersections of exponential technologies

Credit: Frank Diana

Intersections

Effect that we see, experience

All technology that will digitize, add information to itDigitize1

Stages of innovation to understand that disruption is just one phase

The 6 D’s according to P. Diamandis

In the early stage small doublings => once it hits the knee you’re 10 doublings away from a thousand, twenty doublings to reach a million; thirty doublings to get to a billion

Deceptive2

Any innovation that creates a new market and disrupts an existing one

Disruptive3

You don’t have separated solutions (flashlight, GPS or camera,….) Instead => apps on your smartphone

Dematerialization

5

You can reach very quickly very large groups of people Democratization6

An existing product or service will available for free or way cheaper (Uber, Airbnb, FB, Skype, Whatsapp, etc)

Demonetization

4

Reshapedourw

orldRevolutionize

ourw

orld

Examples of results on the intersections

Bob Radocy at Cybathlon

Ultrasound in your pocket

Philips Minicare

Develop and demonstrate how humans can collaborate with powerful AI technologies to tackle the world’s grand challenges

xPrize: 21 medical conditions (10 required, 5 elective) including diabetes anemia, sleep apnea, atrial fibrillation, RR (should weight < 5 pounds)

Mercy Virtual

36Safewatch(2006);Telestroke;VirtualHospitalists;HomeMonitoring(3800patients)

A look inside

24/7 Connectivity: The Internet of Medical Things

38

Always-onpersonalizedconnectedhealthservicesatthepointofcare

Population health management

Perceived Benefits and Negative Consequences of 12 Emerging Technologies (WEF’17)

75 % will affect HC!

Now Tomorrow

Internet

Now we can make the “math” ourselves

Artificial intelligence

The neocortex as differentiator

100 million modules built for pattern recognition

Dendrites generate nearly 10 times more electrochemical spikes than neuron cell bodies

Computational power bigger than thought

AI start ups in the US, 2016 =>160

Since 2012 => 648

Smoldering fires underground

Three forms of Artificial Intelligence

1. Artificial Narrow Intelligence2. Artificial General Intelligence3. Artificial Super Intelligence

These three are often lumped together as AI

This confuses the discussion about AI

Professor Stephen Hawking (Photo Credit: NASA/Paul Alers)www.gizmag.com

Our brains are getting augmented, but socially we are weakening

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And all connected to the internet…

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Steve Jobs and Bill Gates 1991

By 2030-2050 millions of people could become augmented geniuses, and what could they create?

Do “they” really understand….??

Brains are in!Our future Hybrid Synthetic Brain?

AI will dominate us… and now?

R

L

Merge typical human values like love, liberty, democracy,compassion, tolerancewith AI.

This inheritance will be an opportunity for a better world.

Asilomar AI principles

Research Issues

GoalFunding

Culture

Raceavoidance

Science Politics

link

Non-subversion

Ethics & Values

AI Arms race

Shared prosperity

Liberty & Privacy

Human values

Responsibility

Safety

Human control

Shared benefit

Personal privacy Value

alignment

Judicial transpare

ncy

Failure transpare

ncy

Longer term Issues

Recursive Self-

improvement

Common good

Risks

Importance

Capability caution

Singularity?

Singularity?

The 6 Epochs:Evolution works through indirection: it creates a capability and then uses that capability to evolve the next stage.

16-03-17 63

My key learnings• Change yourself or you will be changed

• Exponential growth of technology will force us to change gears

• Unprecedented confluence of disruptive technologies (synthetic biology, AI, nano, sensors, robots, etc.) will improve our physical health

• Machines will surpass human intelligence soon and cross an irreversible point

• No future for diseases: genomics – nano - AI- digital biology

• Merging human values with AI for co-existential sustainability

• Lost of millions of jobs < 10 years, but are we ready to focus on opportunities (education)?

• By 2020 we have 2 billion new minds joining the internet, 2 billion inventors…

• Many organizations build their strategies on linear foundations whereas the exponential world is around the corner. New business models are needed

• There will be a world of abundance, but who will benefit from that?

• Technology encourages superficiality (millenniums)

Influential books (must reads … if you have time)

In the end it’s all about ideas……. let ideas meet each other

.Thank You

.

© 2017 Singularity University

Paul Epping

PaulEpping

PaulEpping