15/3 -17 impact exponential technologies
TRANSCRIPT
Technology is determining our future
Paul Epping, Chapter leadMarch 15th
Chapter SU Dubai presentation
Who or what will be thinking for me?
#SUChapterDubai
TheMillenniumProject:63Nodes...andtworegionalnetworksinEuropeandLatinAmerica
Nodesidentifyparticipants,translatequestionnairesandreports,andconductinterviews,specialresearch,workshops,symposiums,andadvancedtraining.
aregroupsofexpertsandinstitutions thatconnectglobalandlocalviewsin:
Tunisia
Yerevan
Sri Lanka
When you change the way you look at things, the things you look at will change
Wayne Dyre
Driver of exponential growth of technology
Geological Clock
6
12
3
1
9
2
Proterozoic ? Multicellar
Animals
Landplants
Mammals
Humans
4.5 billion years
First tools
Extermination of big mammals
On the move
Extension of our stomach
Fire
The last 10 seconds
14
Exponential technological growthat reduced cost for performance
Bandwidth
Storage Cost
Computing Cost 0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
$pergBperSec.
$per1Mtransistors
$pergB
1992 Today
$
Time
Video conferencingDigital camera GPSScanningCalculator Cloud storage Digital dictaphoneMusic player Video playerEtc.
Software solutions for free
A gap that we usually don’t conceive as a gap
Examples of exponential technologies
Cognitive computing Nano technology Digital biology Genomics
Energy3D printing
DigitizationRobotics
The law of acceleration returns will be seen at the intersections of exponential technologies
Credit: Frank Diana
Intersections
Effect that we see, experience
All technology that will digitize, add information to itDigitize1
Stages of innovation to understand that disruption is just one phase
The 6 D’s according to P. Diamandis
In the early stage small doublings => once it hits the knee you’re 10 doublings away from a thousand, twenty doublings to reach a million; thirty doublings to get to a billion
Deceptive2
Any innovation that creates a new market and disrupts an existing one
Disruptive3
You don’t have separated solutions (flashlight, GPS or camera,….) Instead => apps on your smartphone
Dematerialization
5
You can reach very quickly very large groups of people Democratization6
An existing product or service will available for free or way cheaper (Uber, Airbnb, FB, Skype, Whatsapp, etc)
Demonetization
4
Reshapedourw
orldRevolutionize
ourw
orld
Examples of results on the intersections
Bob Radocy at Cybathlon
Ultrasound in your pocket
Philips Minicare
Develop and demonstrate how humans can collaborate with powerful AI technologies to tackle the world’s grand challenges
xPrize: 21 medical conditions (10 required, 5 elective) including diabetes anemia, sleep apnea, atrial fibrillation, RR (should weight < 5 pounds)
Mercy Virtual
36Safewatch(2006);Telestroke;VirtualHospitalists;HomeMonitoring(3800patients)
A look inside
24/7 Connectivity: The Internet of Medical Things
38
Always-onpersonalizedconnectedhealthservicesatthepointofcare
Population health management
Perceived Benefits and Negative Consequences of 12 Emerging Technologies (WEF’17)
75 % will affect HC!
Now Tomorrow
Internet
Now we can make the “math” ourselves
Artificial intelligence
The neocortex as differentiator
100 million modules built for pattern recognition
Dendrites generate nearly 10 times more electrochemical spikes than neuron cell bodies
Computational power bigger than thought
AI start ups in the US, 2016 =>160
Since 2012 => 648
Smoldering fires underground
Three forms of Artificial Intelligence
1. Artificial Narrow Intelligence2. Artificial General Intelligence3. Artificial Super Intelligence
These three are often lumped together as AI
This confuses the discussion about AI
Professor Stephen Hawking (Photo Credit: NASA/Paul Alers)www.gizmag.com
Our brains are getting augmented, but socially we are weakening
Carrier
12:34 PMWeb Page Title
http://host.domain.tld
Carrier
12:34 PMWeb Page Title
http://host.domain.tld
Carrier
12:34 PMWeb Page Title
http://host.domain.tld
And all connected to the internet…
Carrier
12:34 PMWeb Page Title
http://host.domain.tld
Carrier
12:34 PMWeb Page Title
http://host.domain.tld
Carrier
12:34 PMWeb Page Title
http://host.domain.tld
Carrier
12:34 PMWeb Page Title
http://host.domain.tld
Carrier
12:34 PMWeb Page Title
http://host.domain.tld
Carrier
12:34 PMWeb Page Title
http://host.domain.tld
Carrier
12:34 PMWeb Page Title
http://host.domain.tld
Carrier
12:34 PMWeb Page Title
http://host.domain.tld
Carrier
12:34 PMWeb Page Title
http://host.domain.tld
Carrier
12:34 PMWeb Page Title
http://host.domain.tld
Carrier
12:34 PMWeb Page Title
http://host.domain.tld
Carrier
12:34 PMWeb Page Title
http://host.domain.tld
Carrier
12:34 PMWeb Page Title
http://host.domain.tld
Carrier
12:34 PMWeb Page Title
http://host.domain.tld
Carrier
12:34 PMWeb Page Title
http://host.domain.tld
Carrier
12:34 PMWeb Page Title
http://host.domain.tld
Carrier
12:34 PMWeb Page Title
http://host.domain.tld
Carrier
12:34 PMWeb Page Title
http://host.domain.tld
Carrier
12:34 PMWeb Page Title
http://host.domain.tld
Carrier
12:34 PMWeb Page Title
http://host.domain.tld
Carrier
12:34 PMWeb Page Title
http://host.domain.tld
Carrier
12:34 PMWeb Page Title
http://host.domain.tld
Carrier
12:34 PMWeb Page Title
http://host.domain.tld
Carrier
12:34 PMWeb Page Title
http://host.domain.tld
Carrier
12:34 PMWeb Page Title
http://host.domain.tld
Carrier
12:34 PMWeb Page Title
http://host.domain.tld
Carrier
12:34 PMWeb Page Title
http://host.domain.tld
Carrier
12:34 PMWeb Page Title
http://host.domain.tld
Carrier
12:34 PMWeb Page Title
http://host.domain.tld
Carrier
12:34 PMWeb Page Title
http://host.domain.tld
Carrier
12:34 PMWeb Page Title
http://host.domain.tld
Carrier
12:34 PMWeb Page Title
http://host.domain.tld
Carrier
12:34 PMWeb Page Title
http://host.domain.tld
Carrier
12:34 PMWeb Page Title
http://host.domain.tld
Carrier
12:34 PMWeb Page Title
http://host.domain.tld
Carrier
12:34 PMWeb Page Title
http://host.domain.tld
Carrier
12:34 PMWeb Page Title
http://host.domain.tld
Carrier
12:34 PMWeb Page Title
http://host.domain.tld
Carrier
12:34 PMWeb Page Title
http://host.domain.tld
Carrier
12:34 PMWeb Page Title
http://host.domain.tld
Carrier
12:34 PMWeb Page Title
http://host.domain.tld
Carrier
12:34 PMWeb Page Title
http://host.domain.tld
Carrier
12:34 PMWeb Page Title
http://host.domain.tld
Carrier
12:34 PMWeb Page Title
http://host.domain.tld
Carrier
12:34 PMWeb Page Title
http://host.domain.tld
Carrier
12:34 PMWeb Page Title
http://host.domain.tld
Carrier
12:34 PMWeb Page Title
http://host.domain.tld
Carrier
12:34 PMWeb Page Title
http://host.domain.tld
Carrier
12:34 PMWeb Page Title
http://host.domain.tld
Carrier
12:34 PMWeb Page Title
http://host.domain.tld
Carrier
12:34 PMWeb Page Title
http://host.domain.tld
Carrier
12:34 PMWeb Page Title
http://host.domain.tld
Steve Jobs and Bill Gates 1991
By 2030-2050 millions of people could become augmented geniuses, and what could they create?
Do “they” really understand….??
Brains are in!Our future Hybrid Synthetic Brain?
AI will dominate us… and now?
R
L
Merge typical human values like love, liberty, democracy,compassion, tolerancewith AI.
This inheritance will be an opportunity for a better world.
Asilomar AI principles
Research Issues
GoalFunding
Culture
Raceavoidance
Science Politics
link
Non-subversion
Ethics & Values
AI Arms race
Shared prosperity
Liberty & Privacy
Human values
Responsibility
Safety
Human control
Shared benefit
Personal privacy Value
alignment
Judicial transpare
ncy
Failure transpare
ncy
Longer term Issues
Recursive Self-
improvement
Common good
Risks
Importance
Capability caution
Singularity?
Singularity?
The 6 Epochs:Evolution works through indirection: it creates a capability and then uses that capability to evolve the next stage.
16-03-17 63
My key learnings• Change yourself or you will be changed
• Exponential growth of technology will force us to change gears
• Unprecedented confluence of disruptive technologies (synthetic biology, AI, nano, sensors, robots, etc.) will improve our physical health
• Machines will surpass human intelligence soon and cross an irreversible point
• No future for diseases: genomics – nano - AI- digital biology
• Merging human values with AI for co-existential sustainability
• Lost of millions of jobs < 10 years, but are we ready to focus on opportunities (education)?
• By 2020 we have 2 billion new minds joining the internet, 2 billion inventors…
• Many organizations build their strategies on linear foundations whereas the exponential world is around the corner. New business models are needed
• There will be a world of abundance, but who will benefit from that?
• Technology encourages superficiality (millenniums)
Influential books (must reads … if you have time)
In the end it’s all about ideas……. let ideas meet each other
.Thank You
.
© 2017 Singularity University
Paul Epping
PaulEpping
PaulEpping