Air Safety and Terrorism

Thomas Songer

Mita Lovalekar

Learning and Performance Objectives

• Understand the spectrum of safety risk in airline transportation

• Identify the data sources available for studying airline crashes

• Identify the potential risk related to terrorism in airline transportation

Carmen Taylor via KHBS/KHOG-TV

Number of Passengers (in millions)

43,95

4,4

35,4

3,3

0

10

20

30

40

50

Domestic International

Nov-00 Nov-01

U.S. Scheduled Airlines

Source: Air Transport Association

Officials Probe Crash of Plane

Into Tampa Building

Reuters, 6 Jan 2002

Disasters

Fatalism vs. Preparedness

Risk Perception

Our response to a real or imagined hazard is a function of our perception of that hazard. In many situations, hazards are ignored or disregarded. In other situations, they are magnified. Some of the factors which govern risk perception include: familiarity, degree of dread, memorability

Applications of Epidemiology

(A) Understanding the causes

of a disaster

(B) Understanding ways of

controlling a disaster

situation

Data Sources

• Global Aviation Safety Network

• U.S. Fed. Aviation Administration

Air Transport Association

National Transportation

Safety Board

2001 Statistics

• 34 fatal airliner accidents• 80% passenger carrying

• 15% cargo carrying

• 1118 fatalities among airplane occupants

Aviation Safety Network

29

12

12

26

2129

3

17

42

9

Europe Africa Asia/Australia N. America S.C. America

2001Flights Accidents

Aviation Safety Network

Worldwide Airline Accidents 1945-2001

010

2030

4050

6070

80

Year

Nu

mb

er

Aviation Safety Network

United States Scheduled Airlines

Source: Air Transport Association

1996 U.S. Aviation Statistics

Number ofAccidents

Accidents per100,000 flight hrs

All Fatal All Fatal

Major Carriers 49 4 0.32 0.026

Commuters 98 21 3.16 0.677

GeneralAviation

1854 350 7.51 1.420

NTSB

Death Rates of Vehicle Occupants

VehicleDeaths per 100 millionperson miles of travel

Motorcycle 45Gen. Aviation 8Automobile 1.23Bus 0.06

Passenger Train 0.03Com. Plane 0.03

Source: National Safety Council

Causes of Death in Air Force, 1994

Number

227

Percent

Motor Vehicle Accidents 71 31.3%Suicide 67 29.5%

Medical Conditions 40 17.6%Aviation Accidents 22 9.7%Homicides 9 4.0%Other 18 7.9 %

Total

Terrorism and Flying

• 1012 hijackings or attempted hijackings• 20 accidents and 1060 fatalities

• 42 accidents involving a bomb or sabotage• 2101 fatalities

• 76 accidents where plane was shot down• 2003 fatalities

Aviation Safety Network

Hijackings by Year 1947-2001

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Year

Nu

mb

er

Deaths

Events

Aviation Safety Network

Health and Airline Travel

Potential Health Risks

• From Acute Exposures– Deep Vein Thrombosis

– Infection

– Injury

– Adverse events in the medically vulnerable

Potential Health Risks

• From Chronic Exposures– cancers/leukemia from

• cosmic radiation

• cabin air exposures

The Great Hanshin

Earthquake

Tokyo Subway Sarin Attack

Life Lines damaged normal

Hospital Facilities damaged normal

Phone Lines damaged normal

Disaster information for hospitals

not enough not enough

Information Dispatched from the hospitals

not enough not enough

Patients concentrated to some hospitals

yes yes

Conclusions

• Air travel is one of the safest forms of transportation and accident risk is lower now than in previous years

• there are about 22 hijackings per year; and, on average, 100 deaths from all forms of terrorism worldwide per year.

The information reviewed suggests that: