aib amárach recovery indicator june 2011
DESCRIPTION
A survey of 1,000 Irish consumers about their views on the economy, their personal circumstances, and their emotional wellbeing.TRANSCRIPT
The Economic Recovery IndexAn Amárach Research Briefing
October Index Results
© Amárach Research 2009
June 2011 Results
The AIB Amárach Recovery Indicator
2
The Emotional Recovery
• We have been reporting our monthly
Recovery Indicator since April 2009.
• We set out two years ago to assess the
psychological impact of the recession and to
chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards recovery
alongside our ‘economic progress’.
• Our tracking research has shown the
remarkable emotional strength of the Irish
people, who have consistently reported
‘happiness’ and ‘enjoyment’ as their two most
frequently experienced emotions.
• But we are still in recession – and the path to
recovery still lies some way ahead.
• We will help you along that path.
3
Timing Recovery
• All recessions end in recovery –
so will this one.
• The biggest forecasting challenge is timing:
when do we know the recession is over and
recovery has started?
• Amárach Research has developed the
Recovery Indicator to help us track the
economic cycle more closely.
• This report summarises the AIB-Amárach
Recovery Indicator results from April 2009
(when it began) to June 2011.
• The fieldwork was conducted during the period
14th-21st June 2011 inclusive.
Business Cycle Peaks & Troughs
4
A Matter of Measurement• Every month we survey a representative sample of 1,000 adults – split 850 online and
150 face-to-face to ensure coverage of the total population – and ask them to tell us
which statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’
• Each statement corresponds to a different stage in the economic cycle
5
A Matter of Measurement
May‘11 40% June‘11 46%
May’11 33% June’11 28%
May’11 24% June’11 24%
May’11 2% June’11 2%
May’11 1% June’11 0%
• June 2011 saw a reduction in the percentage seeing signs of improvement:
6
• Using the answers to the survey we have created the Recovery Indicator, which ranges from 0 to 100
(0 = worsening recession; 100 = back to peak).
• In June 2011, the Indicator weakened slightly when compared with the previous month.
8.3
17.8
1517
18.419.6
17.818.3
27.1
22.723.523.8 23.8
25.326
24
19.2
16.3
7.3
12
17.31819.2
18.2
22.120.4
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Apr '09
Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr '10
May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr '11
May June
AIB-Amárach Recovery Indicator
7
34%41%44% 42%43%46%48%
41%43%52%
41% 42%43% 42%42%
42%39%
31%26%18%23%26%24%25%24%28%23%
Ap
r '0
9
May
Ju
n
Ju
ly
Au
g
Se
pt
Oct
No
v
De
c
Jan
Fe
b
Mar
Ap
r '1
0
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
g
Se
pt
Oct
No
v
De
c
Jan
Fe
b
Mar
Ap
r '1
1
May
Ju
ne
Ireland will be through the worst of the recession in 12 months time: % agree strongly/slightly
57% 59%65%
58% 60% 62% 55%
51%51%
61%
55%54%52%53%
54%55%
50% 46% 44%33%41%
48%44%48%47%53%
47%
Ap
r '0
9
May
Ju
n
Ju
ly
Au
g
Se
pt
Oct
No
v
De
c
Jan
Fe
b
Mar
Ap
r '1
0
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
g
Se
pt
Oct
No
v
De
c
Jan
Fe
b
Mar
Ap
r '1
1
May
Ju
ne
I am optimistic in spite of the current economic situation: % agree strongly/slightly
Recovery Outlook 1
8
48%48%51% 47%48%48%46%45%45%50%
47% 43%47%45%45%
47%46%
41%41%32%34%39%37%36%39%40%34%
Ap
r '0
9
May
Ju
n
Ju
ly
Au
g
Se
pt
Oct
No
v
De
c
Jan
Fe
b
Mar
Ap
r '1
0
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
g
Se
pt
Oct
No
v
De
c
Jan
Fe
b
Mar
Ap
r '1
1
May
Ju
ne
I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession: % agree strongly/slightly
Recovery Outlook 2
59%
62% 61%60%61%60%56%
52%
56%55%53% 55%
53%51% 50%
55%
54%
53%
52% 45%45%49%45%47%48%50%44%
Ap
r '0
9
May
Ju
n
Ju
ly
Au
g
Se
pt
Oct
No
v
De
c
Jan
Fe
b
Mar
Ap
r'10
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
g
Se
pt
Oct
No
v
De
c
Jan
Fe
b
Mar
Ap
r '1
1
May
Ju
ne
Right now it seems like the recession is affecting other people more than it is affecting me: % agree strongly/slightly
9
Percent of adults who agree with each statement: June 2009*, 2010, 2011 & May 2011
16% 22% 17% 14%
Jun'09 Jun'10 May'11 Jun'11
I am more relaxed about spendingmoney than I was a few months ago
68% 62% 60%
Jun'10 May'11 Jun'11
Now is a good time to buy a house for those
who want to
34%24% 26% 25%
Jun'09 Jun'10 May'11 Jun'11
I am saving a lot more than before because of
the recession
30% 26% 23%
Jun'10 May'11 Jun'11
I would be happy to borrow from a bank if I
need to 61% 61% 59%
Jun'10 May'11 Jun'11
Paying off debts is my main financial priority
Impact on:
•Spending
•Saving
•Debt
•Borrowing
Financial Sentiment Indicators from the ARI Survey
* NB: debt & borrowing questions not asked in 2009
10
The Mood of the Nation 1
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
April 2009 to June 2011
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Apr
'09
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
'10
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
'11
May
June
Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry
11
The Mood of the Nation 2
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
April 2009 to June 2011
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Ap
r '0
9
Ma
y
Jun
Jul
Aug
Se
pt
Oct
No
v
De
c
Ja
n
Fe
b
Ma
r
Ap
r '1
0
Ma
y
June
July
Aug
Se
pt
Oct
No
v
De
c
Ja
n
Fe
b
Ma
r
Ap
r '1
1
Ma
y
June
Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger
12
The Road Ahead
• The Irish people continue to show strong
emotional fortitude in our fourth year of recession.
• Everyone has been touched directly or indirectly
by the recession at this stage – fewer people than
ever feel the recession is affecting others more
than themselves.
• The predominant mood is one of ‘resilient
optimism’: one that recognises the difficulties of
the present in the expectation of a better future.
• The recession will end in recovery like all others
before it: but we’re not there yet.
• Stay tuned to future issues of the AIB-Amárach
Recovery Indicator as your guide to the road
ahead ...
13
Amárach Contact Details
Gerard O’Neill
Chairman
Amárach Research
11 Kingswood Business Centre
Citywest Business Campus
Dublin 24
telephone: (01) 410 5200
email: [email protected]
website: www.amarach.com
blog: www.amarach.com/blog
twitter: www.twitter.com/amarachresearch