amárach economic recovery index july 2013

1 Economic Recovery Index

Economic Recovery Index An Amárach Research Briefing July 2013 (including analysis by main main supermarket; daily paper; TV service)

© Amárach Research


Buoyant Mood

The good weather in July has meant that

June’s bounce in our Economic Recovery

Index has been sustained for a second month.

The Index fell back only slightly, but still shows

a marked improvement on late 2012/early

2013.

Though we don’t have any indications from

retail sales or other spending measures, it

seems reasonable to assume that the positive

mood is supporting a pick up in a number of

consumer sectors.

That said, consumers are in a ‘live for today’

mood (so no borrowing), but those products

and services meeting needs for fun and for

indulgence will do well while the sun shines…


The Emotional Recovery

We have been reporting our monthly

Economic Recovery Index since April 2009.

We set out four years ago to assess the

psychological impact of the recession and to

chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards

recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’.

This report summarises our Economic

Recovery Index results from April 2009 to

July 2013.

The most recent fieldwork was conducted

during 15th to 22nd July 2013 inclusive.

We have now added historical tables to the

report following requests from a number of

readers.


Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic

Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak).

Our ERI index in July 2013 stood at 23.3 – continuing the positive trend since January:

The Economic Recovery Index

Source: Amárach Research, July 2013

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Ap

r '0

9

Jun

July

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

'10

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

'11

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

'12

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

'13

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

e

July


A Matter of Measurement

June ’13: 37% July ’13: 41%

June ’13: 32% July ’13: 30%

June ’13: 27% July ’13: 25%

June ’13: 4% July ’13: 4%

June ’13: 0% July ’13: 0%

Every month we survey a representative, online sample of 1,000 adults and ask them to tell us

which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’ (listed below)

There has been a slight fall back in the economic outlook in July relative to June:


ERI Summary Tables I

Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’?

% choosing each statement:

%

The economic

situation in

Ireland is

getting worse

The economic

situation is bad

but has

stabilized

The economic

situation is bad

but showing a

few signs of

improvement

The economic

situation is

getting better

and showing

clear signs of

improvement

The economic

situation is

good and

almost fully

recovered

Economic

Recovery

Index

Jul-09 58 25 16 1 0 15.0

Jul-10 32 34 31 3 0 26.0

Jul-11 47 28 22 3 0 20.3

Jul-12 42 31 23 3 1 22.5

Jun-13 37 32 27 4 0 24.5

Jul-13 41 30 25 4 0 23.3


ERI Summary Tables II

% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:

%

Ireland will be

through the

worst of the

recession in

12 months

time

I feel I am

financially

comfortable

enough to

make it

through the

recession

I am optimistic

in spite of the

current

economic

situation

Right now it

seems like the

recession is

affecting other

people more

than it is

affecting me

Jul-09 42 47 58 60

Jul-10 42 47 55 55

Jul-11 26 39 48 49

Jul-12 27 38 45 43

Jun-13 33 40 48 46

Jul-13 27 39 47 45


ERI Summary Tables III

% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:

%

I am more

relaxed about

spending

money than I

was a few

months ago

I am saving a

lot more than

before

because of the

recession

My main

financial

priority is to

pay off my

debts as

quickly as

possible

I would be

happy to

borrow money

from a bank if I

need to

Jul-09 14

Jul-10 20 27 62 27

Jul-11 17 26 59 26

Jul-12 18 25 56 25

Jun-13 21 28 54 23

Jul-13 19 25 56 23


Survivors I

% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by sex, age, class, Dublin):

“I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession”


July 2013 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin ABC1

F50+

C2DE

F50-

Weighted Sample 1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 279 477 523

Strongly Agree 10% 11% 10% 6% 9% 9% 6% 18% 10% 14% 7%

Slightly Agree 28% 27% 29% 29% 31% 26% 26% 28% 28% 31% 26%

Neither/Nor 14% 17% 12% 14% 17% 15% 14% 12% 15% 15% 14%

Slightly Disagree 19% 17% 20% 29% 21% 17% 14% 14% 19% 18% 20%

Strongly Disagree 25% 25% 26% 17% 20% 31% 36% 25% 25% 20% 30%


Survivors II

% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by main supermarket/paper/TV):

“I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession”


July 2013 TOTAL Tesco Dunne

Stores Aldi Lidl

Irish

Times

Irish

Indo

Irish

Daily

Mail

Irish

Exam

iner

Sky UPC

Weighted Sample 1000 356 159 209 158 167 171 70 44 430 273

Strongly Agree 10% 10% 13% 6% 11% 21% 14% 6% 16% 12% 11%

Slightly Agree 28% 27% 29% 29% 27% 28% 32% 26% 46% 26% 30%

Neither/Nor 14% 13% 18% 14% 14% 14% 8% 7% 11% 16% 12%




NEW: Price Sensitive I

% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement:

“I always buy the lowest price products or services”



F50+

C2DE

F50-

Weighted Sample 1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 279 477 523

Strongly Agree 28% 23% 32% 31% 32% 31% 26% 21% 30% 26% 30%

Slightly Agree 28% 28% 28% 33% 29% 26% 27% 27% 27% 28% 28%

Neither/Nor 18% 21% 15% 13% 20% 21% 15% 19% 18% 19% 16%




NEW: Price Sensitive II

% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by main supermarket/paper/TV):

“I always buy the lowest price products or services”



Stores Aldi Lidl

Irish

Times

Irish

Indo

Irish

Daily

Mail

Irish

Exam

iner

Sky UPC

Weighted Sample 1000 356 159 209 158 167 171 70 44 430 273

Strongly Agree 27% 27% 32% 29% 26% 27% 35% 28% 29% 28% 27%

Slightly Agree 28% 28% 27% 34% 29% 30% 39% 28% 27% 28% 28%

Neither/Nor 17% 19% 14% 23% 18% 16% 13% 6% 17% 18% 17%




The Mood of the Nation 1

Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?

% saying Yes: April 2009 to July 2013


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Ap

r '0

9M

ay

Ju

nJu

lA

ug

Se

pt

Oct

No

vD

ec

Ja

nF

eb

Ma

rA

pr

'10

Ma

yJu

ne

Ju

lyA

ug

Se

pt

Oct

No

vD

ec

Ja

nF

eb

Ma

rA

pr

'11

Ma

yJune

Ju

lyA

ug

Se

pt

Oct

No

vD

ec

Ja

nF

eb

Ma

rA

pr'1

2M

ay

Ju

ne

Ju

lyA

ug

Se

pt

Oct

No

vD

ec

Ja

n-1

3F

eb

Ma

rA

pr

Ma

yJu

ne

Ju

ly

Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry


The Mood of the Nation 2


% saying Yes: April 2009 to July 2013


0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Ap

r '0

9M

ay

Ju

nJu

lA

ug

Se

pt

Oct

No

vD

ec

Ja

n'1

0F

eb

Ma

rA

pr

Ma

yJu

ne

July

Au

gS

ept

Oct

No

vD

ec

Ja

n'1

1F

eb

Ma

rA

pr

Ma

yJune

Ju

lyA

ug

Se

pt

Oct

No

vD

ec

Ja

n'1

2F

eb

Ma

rA

pr

May

Ju

ne

Ju

lyA

ug

Se

pt

Oct

No

vD

ec

Ja

n'1

3F

eb

Ma

rA

pr

Ma

yJu

ne

Ju

ly

Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger


Emotions Summary Table

% Enjoyment Happ-

iness Stress Worry Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger

Jul-09 58 56 46 41 32 22 19 19

Jul-10 58 54 45 40 32 20 19 18

Jul-11 57 54 43 34 25 16 23 15

Jul-12 58 52 39 35 27 19 22 15

Jun-13 60 55 39 37 30 19 28 17

Jul-13 58 56 42 34 31 18 25 16


% saying Yes:


Changing Moods I



F50+

C2DE

F50-

Weighted Sample 1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 279 477 523

Enjoyment 58% 62% 54% 48% 49% 60% 65% 68% 57% 61% 55%

Happiness 56% 58% 55% 62% 52% 58% 57% 55% 53% 57% 56%

Stress 42% 37% 48% 50% 49% 52% 38% 28% 45% 41% 44%

Worry 34% 30% 39% 36% 35% 45% 37% 23% 35% 34% 35%

Anxiety 31% 28% 34% 35% 41% 32% 31% 21% 35% 33% 30%

Boredom 28% 26% 30% 54% 35% 26% 16% 14% 29% 28% 28%

Physical Pain 25% 24% 25% 26% 17% 24% 26% 29% 24% 22% 27%

Sadness 18% 13% 23% 24% 19% 19% 18% 12% 19% 15% 20%

Anger 16% 13% 19% 14% 20% 23% 13% 10% 17% 16% 16%

Fear 9% 7% 12% 12% 11% 11% 10% 5% 11% 9% 10%


% saying Yes: July 2013


Changing Moods II



Stores Aldi Lidl

Irish

Times

Irish

Indo

Irish

Daily

Mail

Irish

Exam

iner

Sky UPC

Weighted Sample 1000 356 159 209 158 167 171 70 44 430 273

Enjoyment 58% 57% 63% 60% 50% 62% 69% 55% 71% 61% 56%

Happiness 56% 52% 67% 57% 51% 58% 57% 48% 62% 58% 53%

Stress 42% 43% 43% 47% 39% 36% 39% 42% 46% 42% 46%

Worry 34% 35% 28% 38% 38% 30% 37% 42% 36% 36% 36%

Anxiety 31% 34% 29% 31% 28% 24% 30% 41% 24% 30% 36%

Boredom 28% 33% 25% 27% 29% 20% 22% 28% 11% 28% 28%

Physical Pain 25% 24% 28% 25% 20% 22% 26% 24% 35% 26% 23%

Sadness 18% 20% 12% 18% 20% 18% 17% 20% 17% 16% 18%

Anger 16% 15% 18% 15% 19% 13% 15% 16% 23% 16% 15%

Fear 9% 12% 9% 9% 7% 9% 13% 15% 8% 8% 10%


% saying Yes: July 2013 (by main supermarket/newspaper/TV service)


ERI Resources

We have created a dedicated resource

on the Amárach website for those

interested in exploring our Economic

Recovery Index further.

It includes links to previous issues as

well as to a spreadsheet containing

monthly values for all the component

parts of the ERI – and more besides –

going right back to April 2009.

There is also a link to a special data

visualisation facility we have created in

partnership with Delphi Analytics.

Drivers & Drinking

About Amárach

Amárach Research is an independent market

research agency, providing a full range of

research services to our Irish and international

clients. Amárach specialises in turning

information into insight; and insight into foresight.

Amárach’s experienced team of 30 directors and

executives manage online, face-to-face and cati

surveys (through our call centre); as well as

qualitative research including focus groups, in-

depths and ethnographic studies. We also

delivers a world class field-only service to

universities and international agencies.

Over nearly 25 years, Amárach has pioneered

innovative research techniques and reported on

Irish social, lifestyle and tech trends since the

1980s. Amárach invests heavily in understanding

current Irish consumer and business trends, and

shares numerous, free reports and presentations

via our blog and slideshare sites, linked via our

main website: www.amarach.com

Trends Report

Call us on 01 410 5200 if you want your business to

bounce forward to success:

Mark Nolan Managing Director

or Michael McLoughlin Chief Executive

or Gerard O’Neill Chairman

for a confidential discussion about your needs and to

explore how we can help you succeed through world

class market research.

e. [email protected]

w. www.amarach.com

b. www.amarach.com/blog

t. twitter.com/AmarachResearch

amárach economic recovery index july 2013

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