amárach economic recovery index february 2014

1 Economic Recovery Index

Economic Recovery Index An Amárach Research Briefing February 2014

© Amárach Research


A Damp Start

Did the rain put a dampener on the recovery?

Our Economic Recovery Index eased back

in February, after six months of continuous

increases – albeit to 31.7, still the second

highest level on record.

Nevertheless, it’s interesting to see that

sentiment about the economy didn’t change

much since last month, but sentiment about

personal ‘financial resilience’ did fall back –

perhaps the consequence of a lot of 2013 bills

coming due in January?

No sentiment series continues in one direction

for ever, so some easing is to be expected –

as to whether it has any wider implications for

the robustness of the recovery, next month’s

ERI should tell a story…


The Emotional Recovery

We have been reporting our monthly

Economic Recovery Index since April 2009.

We set out nearly five years ago to assess

the psychological impact of the recession and

to chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards

recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’.

This report summarises our Economic

Recovery Index results from April 2009 to

February 2014.

The most recent fieldwork was conducted

during 10th-15th February 2014 inclusive.

The full data series is on our website – if you

want us to conduct additional analyses (by

brands etc) then feel free to get in touch.


Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic

Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak).

Our Index has eased back: to 31.7 in February 2014, still the second highest on record:

The Economic Recovery Index

Source: Amárach Research, February 2014

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Ap

r '0

9

Jun

July

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

'10

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

'11

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

'12

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

'13

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

'14

Feb


A Matter of Measurement

Jan ’14: 20% Feb ’14: 21%

Jan ’14: 36% Feb ’14: 39%

Jan ’14: 34% Feb ’14: 33%

Jan ’14: 9% Feb ’14: 7%

Jan ’14: 0% Feb ’14: 0%

Every month we survey a representative, online sample of 1,000 adults and ask them to tell us

which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’ (listed below)

The percentage thinking ‘things are getting worse’ is less than a third the level three years ago:


ERI Summary Tables I

Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’?

% choosing each statement:

%

The economic

situation in

Ireland is

getting worse

The economic

situation is bad

but has

stabilized

The economic

situation is bad

but showing a

few signs of

improvement

The economic

situation is

getting better

and showing

clear signs of

improvement

The economic

situation is

good and

almost fully

recovered

Economic

Recovery

Index

Feb-10 39 34 25 2 0 22.7

Feb-11 58 27 14 1 0 18.0

Feb-12 55 25 18 2 0 16.9

Feb-13 42 32 22 4 0 21.8

Jan-14 20 36 34 9 0 33.3

Feb-14 21 39 33 7 0 31.7


ERI Summary Tables II

% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:

%

Ireland will be

through the

worst of the

recession in

12 months

time

I feel I am

financially

comfortable

enough to

make it

through the

recession

I am optimistic

in spite of the

current

economic

situation

Right now it

seems like the

recession is

affecting other

people more

than it is

affecting me

Feb-10 42 47 56 53

Feb-11 24 37 44 45

Feb-12 26 41 44 49

Feb-13 27 36 43 42

Jan-14 41 44 53 46

Feb-14 38 41 52 47


ERI Summary Tables III

% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:

%

I am more

relaxed about

spending

money than I

was a few

months ago

I am saving a

lot more than

before

because of the

recession

My main

financial priority

is to pay off my

debts as quickly

as possible

I would be

happy to

borrow money

from a bank if I

need to

Feb-10 18 26 62 29

Feb-11 14 27 61 24

Feb-12 17 29 57 26

Feb-13 16 26 54 24

Jan-14 23 25 57 24

Feb-14 22 25 58 24


Financial Resilience

% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by sex, age, class, Dublin):

“I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession”


February 2014 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin ABC1

F50+

C2DE

F50-

Weighted Sample 1001 495 507 169 223 187 156 265 279 478 524

Strongly Agree 12% 13% 11% 10% 13% 10% 9% 15% 12% 18% 7%

Slightly Agree 29% 30% 28% 33% 24% 27% 28% 32% 30% 33% 25%

Neither/Nor 15% 16% 14% 11% 20% 18% 10% 14% 15% 15% 14%

Slightly Disagree 22% 21% 22% 24% 22% 22% 21% 19% 22% 19% 24%

Strongly Disagree 20% 18% 23% 17% 18% 20% 30% 18% 18% 14% 26%


Still Saving

% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by sex, age, class, Dublin):

“I am saving a lot more than before because of the recession”



F50+

C2DE

F50-

Weighted Sample 1001 495 507 169 223 187 156 265 279 478 524

Strongly Agree 9% 9% 8% 16% 10% 8% 7% 3% 8% 9% 8%

Slightly Agree 17% 18% 15% 24% 21% 15% 14% 11% 16% 18% 15%

Neither/Nor 21% 22% 20% 19% 20% 19% 16% 27% 20% 25% 17%

Slightly Disagree 21% 19% 22% 22% 21% 20% 22% 20% 22% 21% 21%

Strongly Disagree 31% 29% 33% 15% 27% 37% 39% 37% 31% 25% 38%


The Mood of the Nation 1

Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?

% saying Yes: April 2009 to February 2014


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Ap

r '0

9

Ma

y

Jun

Jul

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

'10

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

r

Ma

y

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

'11

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

r

Ma

y

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

'12

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

r

Ma

y

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

'13

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

r

Ma

y

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

'14

Fe

b

Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry


The Mood of the Nation 2


% saying Yes: April 2009 to February 2014


0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Apr

'09

Jun

Aug

Oct

De

c

Feb

Apr

June

Aug

Oct

De

c

Feb

Apr

June

Aug

Oct

De

c

Feb

Apr

June

Aug

Oct

De

c

Feb

Apr

June

Aug

Oct

De

c

Feb

Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger


Changing Moods



F50+

C2DE

F50-

Weighted Sample 1001 495 507 169 223 187 156 265 279 478 524

Enjoyment 50% 48% 52% 51% 44% 43% 51% 60% 50% 55% 46%

Happiness 49% 45% 53% 60% 47% 45% 44% 50% 46% 49% 48%

Stress 44% 42% 45% 53% 49% 50% 41% 30% 44% 44% 44%

Worry 37% 35% 39% 47% 34% 37% 35% 33% 38% 36% 38%

Anxiety 32% 29% 34% 42% 30% 29% 29% 30% 31% 34% 30%

Boredom 27% 26% 27% 42% 30% 23% 25% 17% 25% 24% 29%

Physical Pain 21% 20% 23% 20% 15% 18% 26% 28% 22% 19% 24%

Sadness 18% 16% 21% 24% 19% 19% 16% 14% 19% 17% 19%

Anger 16% 15% 17% 19% 17% 18% 17% 11% 18% 14% 17%

Fear 10% 10% 11% 14% 8% 11% 8% 9% 14% 9% 11%


% saying Yes: February 2014

Drivers & Drinking

we ask the right questions

so you get the right answers

Image: http://yourawakenedself.com/tag/jacob-nordby/

Trends Report

Call us on 01 410 5200 if you want maximize

the prize in 2014:

e. [email protected]

w. www.amarach.com

b. www.amarach.com/blog

t. twitter.com/AmarachResearch

For more on the ERI see: http://www.amarach.com/resources/economic-recovery-index.htm

amárach economic recovery index february 2014

Marketing

economic recovery

selected statements

years ago

amrach research

day yesterday

irish adults

economic situation

index