Adult Learning in Decline? Recent Evidence at UK National and

City-Region Level

Geoff Mason

National Institute of Economic and Social Research, London, and Centre for Learning and Life Chances in Knowledge Economies and Societies

(LLAKES)

LLAKES International ConferenceLondon, 5-6 July 2010

Figure 3.1: Overview of education and training participation, all persons aged 25-59, UK, 1993-2009 (population-weighted)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009

% in

for

mal

edu

catio

n, jo

b-re

late

d tr

aini

ng a

nd/o

r le

isur

e or

oth

er

educ

atio

n cl

asse

s (a

ll pe

rson

s ag

ed 2

5-59

)

Formal education, job-relatedtraining (13 weeks) and/or leisureor other education classesJob-related training (past 13weeks)

Formal education

Leisure or other educationclasses (not job-related)

Source: Labour Force Survey (Spring Quarters: March-May 1993-2004; April-June 2005-2009).

Possible explanations for recent decline in adult learning

• ‘Rebalancing’ of government spending on adult learning towards Train to Gain and Skills for Life (basic skills training) since 2005

• Financial incentives for colleges and training providers to focus primarily on courses for 16-19 year olds leading to accredited qualifications

• Reduced provision of vocational and leisure-related courses outside the National Vocational Qualification (NVQ) framework

• Increases in course fees at further education level, including reduction in proportion of adult learners who are eligible for fee remission

Who has been most affected by decline in adult learning?

• People aged between 30 and 49 • Unemployed and economically inactive• People holding qualifications at NVQ2 and above• Striking fall in probability of graduates receiving

employer-provided training -- though better-qualified people are still more likely than low-qualified people to receive such training

• Probability of females participating in adult learning has remained significantly higher than for males throughout the 1999-2009 period

LLAKES-NIESR City-Regions Dataset (1)

• Focus on 44 city-regions which account for just under 80% of total GB employment

• Definition of city-regions derived from Robson et al (ODPM, 2006) who identified 38 relatively self-contained city-regions in England and their constituent local authority districts (LADs)

• Identification criteria based on employment, commuting, housing and retail data

• 6 more city-regions added for Scotland and Wales

LLAKES-NIESR City-Regions Dataset (2)

• These city-regions tend to overlap with commuting patterns of managers and professionals

• Thus delineate labour markets for high-level skills surrounding urban nodes while also encompassing localised travel-to-work areas which are more relevant to lower-skilled workers

• Dataset built up from LAD-level data for 1994-2008 derived from Labour Force Survey (via NOMIS) and Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings

• Data available to derive measures of employment, inactivity, dependency rates, demography, average wages, workforce qualifications, job-related training and industrial structure at city-region level

Employment, qualification and job-related training rates, Great Britain, 2008

People aged 25-retirement (a) receiving job-

related training in last 4 weeks as % of all people aged 25-retirement in

employment, 2008

Working-age people receiving

job-related training in last 4 weeks as % of all

working age people in

employment, 2008

Holders of NVQ4-plus qualifications as % of working-age population,

2008

Persons in employment as %

of working-age population, 2008

Great Britain - Mean 13.5 13.7 29.0 74.2 Highest GOR 14.3 15.0 38.6 78.5 Lowest GOR 12.6 12.7 23.9 70.4

City-region level - Mean 13.2 14.2 28.4 75.3 Highest 18.2 19.0 46.5 81.7 Lowest 5.7 6.6 18.7 65.9

GOR - Highest North East North East London South East GOR - Lowest Eastern Eastern North East London

City-region - Highest Lincoln Lincoln Cambridge Exeter City-region - Lowest Luton Luton Peterborough Liverpool

Employment rates, 2008

1

2 3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1112

13

1415

16

1718

19

20

21

22

23

24

2526

27

28

2930

31

32

3334

35

36

37

38

3940

41

42

4344

(.78,.82](.74,.78](.7,.74][.65,.7]No data

Employment rate, 2008

NVQ4-plus holders as % of working-age population, 2008

1

2 3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1112

13

1415

16

1718

19

20

21

22

23

24

2526

27

28

2930

31

32

3334

35

36

37

38

3940

41

42

4344

(.4,.47](.33,.4](.26,.33][.18,.26]No data

NVQ4plus_working age population, 2008

Job-related training rates, employees aged 25-retirement, 2008

1

2 3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1112

13

1415

16

1718

19

20

21

22

23

24

2526

27

28

2930

31

32

3334

35

36

37

38

3940

41

42

4344

(.15,.19](.12,.15](.09,.12][.05,.09]No data

Job-related training_employees aged 25-ret., 2008

Job-related training rate, all people aged 25-retirement in employment in city-regions, GB, 1994-2008

0.130

0.135

0.140

0.145

0.150

0.155

0.160

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Tra

inee

s as

pro

port

ion

of a

ll pe

rson

s ag

ed 2

5-re

tirem

ent

age

0.090

0.100

0.110

0.120

0.130

0.140

0.150

0.160

0.170

Coe

ffic

ient

of

varia

tion

Mean (left-hand axis) Coefficient of variation (right-hand axis)

NVQ4-plus holders as proportion of working-age population in city-regions, GB, 1994-2008

0.16

0.18

0.20

0.22

0.24

0.26

0.28

0.30

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Hol

ders

of

NV

Q4-

plus

qua

lific

atio

ns a

s pr

opor

tion

of

tota

l pop

ulat

ion

of w

orki

ng a

ge

0.180

0.185

0.190

0.195

0.200

0.205

0.210

0.215

0.220

0.225

Coe

ffic

ient

of

varia

tion

Mean (left-hand axis) Coefficient of variation (right-hand axis)

Employment rates in city-regions, GB, 1994-2008

0.71

0.72

0.73

0.74

0.75

0.76

0.77

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Per

sons

in e

mpl

oym

ent

as p

ropo

rtio

n of

wor

king

-age

po

pula

tion

(mal

es a

ged

16-6

4; f

emal

es a

ged

16-5

9)

0.04

0.05

0.05

0.06

0.06

0.07

0.07

0.08

0.08

Coe

ffic

ient

of

varia

tion

Mean (left-hand axis) Coefficient of variation (right-hand axis)

Skills and adult training in city-regions: multivariate analysis (1)

• Adult training rates at city-region level strongly positively related to proportion of workforce with high-level skills (NVQ Level 4 or above)

• Other positive influences: share of financial and business services in employment and annual growth rate in the population of working age

• Negative influence on adult training rate: share of older people (aged 50-retirement) in the total workforce

• Disparities in skill levels strongly reflect differences in age structure and industrial structure between city-regions

• Skills negatively related to the proportions of both younger persons (aged 16-24) and older persons (aged 50-retirement) in employment

Skills and adult training in city-regions: multivariate analysis (2)

• Skill levels positively related to:– share of financial and business services in total

employment– share of small firms in total employment– part-time employment share

• Seems likely that inter-regional differences in employment rates, age structure and industrial structure associated with high-level skills are contributing indirectly to regional disparities in adult participation in training

• Nonetheless, large differences in adult training rates between city-regions have not diminished in recent years even though gaps in employment rates and skill levels have narrowed to some extent