19.09.2015 Former ‘wise man’ Baskın Oran: Erdoğan will cause his own downfall

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Former ‘wise man’ Baskın Oran:Erdoğan will cause his own downfall

Baskın Oran (Photo: Today's Zaman, Ali Ünal)

September 18, 2015, Friday/ 18:09:00/ SEVGİ AKARÇEŞME / ISTANBUL

Famous not only for a life dedicated to internationalrelations and Turkish foreign policy in academia but alsofor bold comments, retired Professor Baskın Oran toldToday's Zaman that Turkey's Kurdish problem risks turninginto a people's war between Turks and Kurds , underlingthat the conflict and polarization policy of President RecepTayyip Erdoğan will only end when he self­destructs.

Having left the “Wise Men” group in June 2013, which wasestablished by the government to facilitate the settlementprocess with the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK ), Baskın Oransays that it was obvious that the process would not work, giventhe mutual mistrust between the government and the PKK, whichresulted in the construction of new military checkpoints by thegovernment and the rearmament of the PKK. Oran argues thatthe new generation of Kurds has completely lost trust in thegovernment while the government almost encourages thelynching of Kurds, as seen in recent attacks on civilian Kurds.

According to Oran, young Kurdish leader and Peoples'Democratic Party (HDP) Co­chair Selahattin Demirtaş spoiledRecep Tayyip Erdoğan's plans for an executive presidency andErdoğan believes that he is politically strengthened by increasingnumbers of killed soldiers. However, the veteran academicpredicts that the results of the June 7 general election will notchange in the Nov. 1 snap poll and Erdoğan's policy to denouncehis critics as “parallel” and “terrorist” will become meaninglessbecause it has become absurd.

Here are the details of our interview with Oran:

In your interview with Today's Zaman last November youpredicted this situation. What went wrong in the settlementprocess?

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19.09.2015 Former ‘wise man’ Baskın Oran: Erdoğan will cause his own downfall

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Terrorist PKK rule outunilateral cease­firein Turkey

It was evident that the process would come to this point. Irefused to attend the “wise men” committee meeting in June2013. I had joined the group to make a humble contribution tothe solution of the Kurdish problem. Throughout all our meetings,I had said that there would be no way out unless the governmentimplemented pro­Kurdish reforms. It was evident that thegovernment was not willing to do this. Erdoğan wanted to dealwith this problem to print his name in the history books by solvingthe Kurdish issue and become the executive president of Turkey

by receiving the Kurdish vote.

So was the public deceived?

This is not about deceit but not trusting each other. Throughout the process, thegovernment continued building military checkpoints and the PKK armed itself. Noconfidence­building measures were taken as in the IRA or ANC examples. We did not knowwhat steps would be taken.

The aim was to make Erdoğan president

Why were no steps taken?

The aim was not reform anyway, but to make Erdoğan [an executive] president.

Was this deal struck with [imprisoned PKK leader] Abdullah Öcalan?

I am commenting based on “open intelligence” since I am not the head of the NationalIntelligence Organization [MİT]. Kandil [the headquarters of PKK], the opposition parties andthe Kurdish diaspora were left out of this process. The negotiations were made only withÖcalan. He expressed his approval for the presidency, but he is a lifelong inmate. Could youimagine him acting based on his free will?

Do you mean that he is controlled by the government?

In Kurds' wording, he is a prisoner. That is why his deal for autonomy in return for thepresidency does not bind all Kurds and it did not. You cannot become the single ruler inTurkey when there is local autonomy, anyway! The two are mutually exclusive.

Whose words are more influential among Kurds?

Sometimes Kandil, sometimes Öcalan dominates. The Kurdish question is so complicatedthat it cannot be explained by reference to only one actor.

Why does Öcalan not talk as PKK attacks increase?

There are two reasons. One, his voice could be muted by the government because hewould not say things Erdoğan would like. If Öcalan says

“Drop the guns,” Erdoğan would not like it. Erdoğan thinks that he gains more power themore coffins arrive. For instance, the [Kurdistan Communities Union] KCK has asked for ajoint cease­fire with Öcalan as its chief negotiator, but there has been no reaction fromErdoğan.

Another reason could be Öcalan's fear of not being taken seriously. His power would behurt if his instructions are not followed. Also, how much information he receives from outsideworld is controlled by the government.

A Turkish­Kurdish conflict is desired to bring about an executivepresidency

What about the comments that we have gone back to the 1990s?

In many ways, it is worse than the 1990s. Now, temporary Kurdish workers are attackedand some are killed. Earlier this month, a man, who only posted a photo [on Facebook]

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19.09.2015 Former ‘wise man’ Baskın Oran: Erdoğan will cause his own downfall

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wearing a Kurdish outfit was beaten and forced to kiss an Atatürk statue. Anti­Kurdishsentiment is taught by the state. In this recent case, the perpetrators were released whilethe victim was investigated for “praising crime and criminals.”

Besides, in the 1990s there was a clash between the government and the PKK. Someintellectuals and businessmen who allegedly aided the PKK were killed. Today, Turkishpeople have begun to lynch Kurds. This is worse. A Turkish­Kurdish conflict is being createdto serve Erdoğan's dream of an executive presidency. I see no other reason for such a riskymove. The PKK made a terrible mistake by taking up arms again, which will benefitErdoğan, but what provoked this mistake by Kandil is Erdoğan's reluctance for reform andremarks such as “There is no Kurdish problem.”

Isn't it risky to ignite such a fire?

Erdoğan has passed the point at which he can see that. He has entered a period that hecan only survive if he becomes tougher. Now, there is a civilian “deep state.” The militarydeep state has been replaced by Erdoğan's civilian deep state. For instance, the attack onthe Hürriyet daily is a mini Sept. 6­7, when lynching was encouraged by the government[during anti­Rum pogroms in 1955]. The attack on Hürriyet was led by a [Justice andDevelopment Party] AK Party deputy, Abdurrahim Boynukalın, on the exact anniversary ofSept. 6­7.

The new Kurdish generation does not trust the government

What could end such a clash?

First of all, Erdoğan must stop, but it is not that simple after this much provocation. YoungerKurds are different to the older generation. Our generation is the last dialogue generation.Ahmet Türk and many other Kurds said this before. This is not a threat but an expression ofreality. In sum, the new Kurdish generation does not trust the government anymore.

What about Demirtaş? Does he not represent the new generation?

Demirtaş plays the game of politics by its rules, which is why he is receiving the wrath ofErdoğan. With only his character and wit, he gave 50 deputies to his party. A total of 80deputies spoiled all of Erdoğan's plans. If Demirtaş did not oppose the PKK's bombs,Erdoğan would be very happy.

Will the policy to demonize Demirtaş take hold?

It will take hold in the short run among those who say “Erdoğan is our honor,” but Erdoğan'spolicy of tension is extremely tiring. Constant quarreling will work against him.

You can say anything to Fethullah Gülen, but not that he is aterrorist!

How?

There are two concepts Erdoğan uses as a weapon, “parallel” and “terrorist,” but both ofthem have become absurd. Recently, terrorism investigations were launched againstFethullah Gülen, [Jewish businessman] İshak Alaton and the Doğan media group. Do notask me anything else! Someone named Doğan Kasadolu, who used to work with Alaton'slate partner Üzeyir Garih, reported a complaint about Alaton, who is over 90! Furthermore,Alaton is Jewish! I called him to congratulate him for his conversion to Islam since it isrequired to be Muslim to be a Gülenist! You can call Gülen anything, but not a terrorist!

Erdoğan uses these weapons as follows: First, the pro­government media publish reports,and then prosecutors take action. People are intimidated in this way. Erdoğan terrorizespeople. There is a rule in philosophy: Anything that becomes absurd destroys itself.Erdoğan's problem is that there is nobody around him to tell the truth; he does not let suchpeople close to him.

Some people adore Erdoğan due to the 80­year secular oppression

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19.09.2015 Former ‘wise man’ Baskın Oran: Erdoğan will cause his own downfall

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What about popular support? Isn't there a group who might believe Alaton is“parallel”?

There are people who would jump off a cliff if Erdoğan asks because they are tired of 80years of oppressive secular practices and scared of its comeback. In addition, Erdoğancreated a class who are ready to donate him millions with a phone call. This is how it ispossible to resist the facts of life ­­ but only up to a certain point.

Erdoğan's biggest mistake is anachronism, a confusion of calendars. He is doing things in2010 that would not be considered mistakes in the 1950s, but Turkey is far beyond thoseperiods. Still, the trauma of 80 years is not erased over a couple of years. People are stillscared.

What about fears of a military comeback?

I hope they will not come back, I do not think so. May 14, 1950 ­­ the end of single­partyrule in Turkey ­­ was a very positive development. Turkey's government system was goingto reach “room temperature,” but the military ­­ which did not understand that a “top­downrevolution” would only work one time ­­ intervened in politics in 1960, 1971, 1980 and 1997and tried to intervene again in 2007. The military messed things up and prevented thingsfrom reaching room temperature. The AK Party's rise was possible under the disruption ofthis natural evolution. In other words, such secular interventions brought Erdoğan to power.

Yet, all hopes still reside in Erdoğan. If no Islamists had come to power, people would say,“If only they were in power, things would be better.” Now that is over. Erdoğan's policy oftension has vaccinated people. We have to wait for him to destroy himself. He is alreadydoing it but not much time is left because he will begin rallies for Nov. 1.

Then should he be left alone?

Of course not. Erdoğan constantly violates Articles 68 and 69 of the Constitution and Article48 of the Law on Political Parties. His crimes should be articulated loudly and constantly.This is why I keep writing about them. I don't even mention Dec. 17 and 25 [2013].

What will happen on Nov. 1?

Based on polls, the Nov. 1 election will be a repetition of the June 7 election and Erdoğanwill be highly disappointed. Will he hold third and fourth elections over results that he doesnot like? Indeed, sometimes one cannot help but almost say: If only the Dec. 17 and 25corruption scandal had not unfolded then people in the same country would not be pittedthis much against each other.

In your column in Radikal, you write the “Unwritten memoirs of Erdoğan.” How areyou still not in trouble?

If Erdoğan sues me, it would be hitting a sledgehammer into his own head because even[the late President] Kenan Evren [who led the 1980 military coup] did not sue me for mybooks on his unwritten memoirs. But I send my columns first to my lawyer so as not to behurt by existing laws. Could one publish anything in this country without first consulting alawyer?

PROFILE

Baskın Oran is a professor emeritus of international relations who has repeatedlychallenged the ideology and practices of Turkish state institutions. As an assistantprofessor, he was dismissed twice by ruling military juntas in 1971 and 1982. He is theauthor and editor of 20 books and many articles in Turkish, English and French that dealwith Turkey's international relations, nationalism and minority rights. He is the author of theMinority and Cultural Rights Report (2004), which set a milestone in Turkey's debate onminority rights. His edited the three­volume Turkish Foreign Policy (1919­2012), the first twovolumes of which were published by the University of Utah Press in 2010 and is thestandard work for the study of the international relations of Turkey. He has been a regularcolumnist with the Armenian­Turkish Agos newspaper since 2000 and with Radikal since2006.

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