Physical Planning Forum

Visionpolicy, strategy; regional context.

Kamil Khan Mumtaz

July 2014

• The Ecological Footprint measures how much

land and water area a human population

requires to produce the resource it consumes

and to absorb its carbon dioxide emissions.

• Since the 1970s, humanity has been in

ecological overshoot with annual demand on

resources exceeding what Earth can

regenerate each year.

• It now takes the Earth one year and six

months to regenerate what we use in a year.

• We maintain this overshoot by liquidating the

Earth’s resources. Overshoot is a vastly

underestimated threat to human well-

being and the health of the planet.

http://www.footprintnetwork.org/en/index.php/GF

N/page/footprint_basics_overview/

The Global ContextKey Issues

•Environmental crisis•Poverty•Income Disparities

Ecological ‘income’

(bio-capacity) and

‘expenditure’ (eco-

footprint)

Since 2006, the World Fund for Naturehas been issuing a bi-annual audit,‘Living Planet Report’, of the world’secological ‘income’ (bio-capacity) and‘expenditure’ (eco-footprint).

We in Pakistan are trying hard toemulate Dubai (aspiring to create global cities, water-front developments, dazzlingskyscrapers and malls, etc) which is one of the highest over-consumers per capita in the world, exceeding even the US.

The Global Context

Key Issues

Environmental crisis

Qatar has the worst ecological footprint per person in the world.

The Global Context

Urbanizationis a symptom of the present global

ecological crisis.

Its principal cause is the modern

development paradigm.

Pursuit of Endless Economic Growthhas resulted in over-production,

depletion of resources, waste,

environmental degradation, social

disintegration and dehumanization.

The Global Context

Key Issues

•Poverty•Income Disparities

Vision, Policies & Strategies

The Earth Charter was created by the independent Earth Charter Commission, which was convened as a follow-up to the 1992 Earth Summit in order to produce a global consensus statement of values and principles for a sustainable future. The document was developed over nearly a decade through an extensive process of international consultation, to which over five thousand people contributed. The Charter has been formally endorsed by thousands of organizations, including UNESCO and the IUCN (World Conservation Union). For more information, please visit www.EarthCharter.org.

Preamble to The Earth Charter

We stand at a critical moment in Earth's

history... We must join together to bring forth a

sustainable global society founded on

respect for nature, universal human rights,

economic justice, and a culture of peace. …

Earth, Our Home

... Earth, our home, is alive with a unique

community of life. ..The global environment

with its finite resources is a common concern

of all peoples. The protection of Earth's vitality, diversity, and beauty is a sacred trust.

The Global Context

The Earth Charter

The Global Situation

The dominant patterns of production and

consumption are causing environmental

devastation, the depletion of resources, and a

massive extinction of species. Communities are

being undermined. The benefits of

development are not shared equitably and the

gap between rich and poor is widening.

Injustice, poverty, ignorance, and violent

conflict are widespread and the cause of great

suffering. An unprecedented rise in human

population has overburdened ecological and

social systems. The foundations of global

security are threatened. These trends are

perilous—but not inevitable.

The Challenges Ahead

…Fundamental changes are needed in our

values, institutions, and ways of living. We

must realize that …human development is

primarily about being more, not having more. ..

Our environmental, economic, political, social,

and spiritual challenges are interconnected, and

together we can forge inclusive solutions.

The Global Context

The Earth Charter

• “Urbanization presents one of the key challenges and, at the same time,

opportunities in the new millennium”

• “Those cities that fail to plan ahead and execute the plans will not be competitive in

the globalized world. Urban economies are contributing significantly more to

national exchequer and at the same time have become key employment markets.

Cities indeed are important engines of economic growth and provide significant

economies of scale in the provision of jobs, housing and services.” (our italics)

(LDA’s Integrated Strategic Development Plan for Lahore Region)

TLP Vision and StrategiesCity & RegionKey Issues

Pursuit of Endless Economic Growth

We do not share this corporate capitalist vision of rapid urbanization as an

investment opportunity, and cities as employment markets, whose

expanding size provides economies of scale for profiteers who are

valorized for their contribution to the national exchequer.

TLP Vision and StrategiesThe City & its RegionKey Issues

Pursuit of Endless Economic Growth

The City & its Region• Cities process primary raw materials,

manufacturer secondary products and provide

services.

• Economically they are integrated with the

region that produces the primary products, and

the region to which they provide goods and

services.

• In a symbiotic relationship, the value of what

each takes from the other is more or less

equivalent to what it gives.

• In a parasitic relationship the city extracts

resources in excess of their rates of renewal and

re-generation, and produces toxic and non-

recyclable waste.

The RegionOn the basis of bio-capacity of 0.07 hectares of arable

land per person, Lahore Division may be taken

as a sustainable region.

Bio-Capacity

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Times surplus/deficient

The City & its Region

• Lahore District:

• Total Area:1772 sq.km

• Cultivable Area: 319 sq. km

• Bio-capacity:.0036 ha/capita

• Lahore Division

• Total Area: 14687 sq.km

• Cultivable Area: 9455 sq. km

• Bio-capacity: .0672m sq./capita

On the basis of bio-capacity of

0.07 hectares of arable land per

person, Lahore Division may be

taken as a sustainable region.

• Population: 14 million (Lahore

Division)

• 8.5 million People reside in Lahore

District and 82 % of which are urban

dwellers.

• Population growth rate of 2.5% since

1998 Census is much faster than the

national and provincial rate of 1.9%

• Age Profile in Lahore District is very

much young (below 14 = 39.2%; 15 – 49

= 50%)

Key Issues

People

Occupations:

• Services: 38.8 %;

• White collar: 31 %;

• ‘lumpen’: 19.5 %;

• Manufacturing: 10.4 %

Employment by zone of residence

• Primary: 4.4%

• Secondary: 14.6%

• Tertiary: 81%

• Employment Participation rate: 27%

• Unemployment Exceeds those employed by 27%

• Female residents unemployment: 99% • GDP: average growth rate declined from 6% in the 1980s to 3% in the last five years

• Incomes: Average Household Income for Towns/Tehsils(Pak Rs/month)

• Highest: 43,397 in Cantonment

• Lowest: 22,26 in Muridke.

Key Issues

Economy

Vision and Strategies

Key IssuesUrbanization

Period Cumulative

Developed Area

(km2)

Average Growth Area

per year (ha)

Pre-British 23.8

1850 – 1900 68.7 90

1901-1950 71.2 48

1951-65 117.2 323

1966-80 175.7 390

1981-90 245.6 699

1991-2000 326.0 804

2001-2006 397.8 1196

Vision and Strategies

Key IssuesUrbanization

Unsustainable

Physical

Growth Trends

based on

motorized circulation,

single central high-rise

business district and cultural

center

low-density suburbs,

segregated and widely

separated land-use zones

and

open-ended growth in the

size of its population and

physical area

Densities

Majority of developed urban land (90%) comprises low-density (less than 150 persons per hectare), for the rich minority (42% of the population), while the poor (58 % of the

population) are crammed into a tiny proportion of the urban area (10%), at densities over a thousand persons per hectare.

Vision and StrategiesKey IssuesUrbanization

Our (TLP) studies have shown

conclusively that there is no need to

expand the urban area of Lahore.

There is more than enough space and

invested infrastructure capacity in the

existing developed urban area to

accommodate the projected doubling

of the population over the next 25

years!

Infrastructure Capacity

Vision and StrategiesKey IssuesUrbanization

•Sustainable economy based on need rather than greed;

•Extraction from resources should not exceed their rates of renewal and

re-generation;

•All that is consumed should be fully recycled;

•Toxic and non-recyclable waste should be eliminated;

•Equitable distribution of wealthProgressive taxation on incomes, movable and immovable property, and

conspicuous consumption ;

Full employment opportunities for working population;

Place of work located within walking distance of place of residence;

•Integrate housing for all income and occupational groups;

•Integrate land uses, particularly housing, employment and social

infrastructure;

•Balance location of urban services and facilities in relation to

population for each neighborhood;

Principles & Policies

•Integrate urban economy with economy of host region

•Organic farming in host region and artisanal manufacture of commodities

at village, town and city levels based on natural raw materials and

renewable energy will:

reduce unemployment;

improve balance of payments;

produce healthier food;

reduce of environmental degradation;

result in 100% recycling; and

zero waste

•Tertiary Services: markets, trading and services at village, town and

city levels

•Taxation of non-essential consumption and investment of revenues in

social infrastructure will:

reduce income disparities;

provide better quality of life; and

reduce unemployment;

Economic Strategy

• Equitable utilization of urban resources including land and invested

infrastructure. This will:

Rationalize urban densities;

create space for social infrastructure (education, health, recreation etc.) in high

density areas; and

optimize utilization of surplus capacity in low-density areas;

• Pedestrian circulation will

Reduce motor vehicle traffic;

Reduce traffic accidents;

Reduce noise and air pollution;

Reduce dependence on non-renewable energy;

Save foreign exchange;

Permit higher densities;

Provide space for social infrastructure including recreation;

Provide for better community integration;

Urban Strategies

•Integration of land uses

•Integration of income groups

•Low-rise

•Low-tech

•High density

•Control of urban expansion. This will:

Conserve green areas including agriculture,

forests and water bodies;

Reduce utility infrastructure costs;

Urban Strategies

Regional Structure

Population /UnitUnits

Quant

ity

4000Village 400

17000Town 80

375000city 11

7000000

Metropolis

comprising of

18 ‘cities’ 1

Regional Strategies

Union Council Pop. = 38282

Density

Persons

/hectares

Area:

hectares

Highest 1500 25.5

high 700 54.7

Low 125 306.3

Lowest 37 1034.6

Alternate Urban Strategies

Walkable

TownPop: 306256

Area: 4 sq. km

Density: 765/ha

Motorized

Union CouncilPop: 38282Area: 9 sq kmDensity: 42.5/ha

Alternate Urban Strategies

Motorised City

Pop: 2,450,048

Green City

Pop: 2,450,048 Density: 765/ha

Alternate Urban Strategies

Green

Megalopolis Pop: 9,800,192

Alternate Urban Strategies

Our Vision for Lahore

A center of urbanity and civilization

A city that thrives in a symbiotic relationship with its region.

Our Goals

• Realization of our highest human potential.

• the greatest challenges of the new millennium is the conservation

of our humanity and our environment

• Our humanity is defined by the universal set of qualities and

values that define what it means to be “human” – qualities such as

Love, Compassion, Justice and Beauty – not by quantities such as

gross national product, monetary wealth and material possessions

For the Conservation of our Humanity & our Environment

www.thelahoreproject.com