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Decision/Evaluation Methodologies Physical modelling (hydrologic, Hydraulics, ecological suitability) Simulation models (Shared Vision Planning) Optimization e.g. maximize net economic benefits; minimize risk-cost) Multiattribute/Multicriteria Models (MCDMs) Risk-based,Fuzzy arithmetic models Scenario Robust decisionmaking

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Candidate Plans: A: Balanced Economics B: Balanced Environmental D: Blended Benefits Natural Flow Plan E: Natural Flow Interest Specific: Ontario Riparian Plan Recreational Boating Plan Reference Plans: Plan 1998 Plan 1958DD Plan 1958D International Lake Ontario St. Lawrence River Study

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Net Economic/Ecologic Benefits of Alternative Plans Avg. annual net benefits ($US million)Plan 1958DDPlan APlan BPlan DPlan E Net Benefits0.007.526.486.52-12.30 Shoreline Damages 0.00-0.62-1.110.32-25.96 Navigation0.000.412.202.314.13 Recreation Boating0.004.23-0.582.04-4.64 Hydroelectric0.003.505.971.8214.16 Municipal Water0.00 Environmental Index1.001.061.351.104.04 Wetlands Index1.001.021.441.171.56

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Stakhiv Plan selection rationale for IUGLS Used Study Guidelines as basis for evaluation criteria Developed simple MAUT model for replicable evaluation Plan D is robust selection under wide range of weights other plans vary in rank Plan E is worst performing under most weights Gave extra weight to equity considerations (disproportionate loss, geographic distrib, etc.) Plan A, B, C close- selection depends on weights (I.e. preferences for particular attributes)

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Fuzzy Set Risk-Cost Analysis for alternative dredged material sites Multiattribute utility analysis High degrees of uncertainty and unknowns Use of weights, probabilities CAD confined aquatic disposal UAD unconfined aquatic disposal CDF Confined disposal facility UFL Upland disposal facility UPS Upland protected source

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Final RiskCost Tradeoff Site Risk (0.5) Human Risk Fish Risk Shellfish Risk Terrestrial Risk Ecol Risk (0.3) (0.7) (0.5) (0.7) (0.3) (0.7) (0.3) (0.4) (0.6) (0.7) (0.3) Cancer Noncance r Fish Burial Fish Toxicity Shellfish Burial Shellfish Toxicity Terrestrial Burial Terrestrial Toxicity Habitat Loss Level 1Level 2Level 3Level 4 Cost

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0.20.40.60.810 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 UAD CAD CDF UFL UPS Terrestial Risk Shellfish Risk Level 2 Analysis

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0.110.01 10 -10 10 -8 10 -6 10 -4 10 -2 1 CAD CDF UPL UAD Biological Risk Human Health Risk UPS Level 3 Analysis

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Goal Objective Criteria Sustainable DevelopmentReduce Vulnerability Econ.Envir.EquitySWBSafetyReliability Mgmt. Measure $ Costs & Benefit W.Q. Habitat Diversity Income Distribution Relocate Population at Risk Frequency of Failure MM 1 MM i MM n Structural / infrastructure Legal / legislative Institutional / administrative Regulations (land use, zoning, standards) Education Financial incentives, subsidies (+) Taxes, tariffs, user fees (-) Research and development Market mechanisms Technology development Management (Adaptive) Measures

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Disposal Cost ($) Cancer Risk (probability) 10 6 10 8 10 5 10 -10 10 -8 10 -6 10 -4 10 -2 1 CAD CDF UPL UAD UPS Level 4 Analysis UAD unconfined aquatic disposal UPL upland disposal CAD capped aquatic disposal UPS upland protected CDF confined disposal facility source 10 7 10 -6 is the *Standard*

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ACT-ACF Study used RCHARC indices. TNC Riparian Index Shown in this schematic

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3 alternatives, 3 RCHARC output levels Opportunity cost tradeoff