a presentation by st. modwen properties ~20,000 consented plots, of which >3,700 in london and...

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A PRESENTATION BY ST. MODWEN PROPERTIES PLC NOVEMBER 2010

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Page 1: A PRESENTATION BY ST. MODWEN PROPERTIES ~20,000 consented plots, of which >3,700 in London and South East. • Persimmon joint venture over 2,000 homes: • Access to skills / buying

A PRESENTATION BY ST. MODWEN PROPERTIES PLC

NOVEMBER 2010

Page 2: A PRESENTATION BY ST. MODWEN PROPERTIES ~20,000 consented plots, of which >3,700 in London and South East. • Persimmon joint venture over 2,000 homes: • Access to skills / buying

1

INTRODUCTION

• Does the market understand St Modwen ?

• Reinforcing the positive messages of the 30 September IMS

Contents

• Income-producing portfolio (£501m)

• Residential land (£379m)

• Commercial land (£142m)

• Development pipeline

• Financing

• Opportunities

Page 3: A PRESENTATION BY ST. MODWEN PROPERTIES ~20,000 consented plots, of which >3,700 in London and South East. • Persimmon joint venture over 2,000 homes: • Access to skills / buying

INCOME-PRODUCING PORTFOLIO

2

• Book Value £501m; 1,347 acres

• Rent roll of £45.9m, and growing.

• High level of churn, but reducing vacancies: • 222 new lettings / renewals in 10 months to 30 Sep 2010;

• Securing £6.3m of annual rent over 970,000 sq ft of space;

• Incentives total £2.5m (6.1% of total rent secured)

• Voids now 11.7% (equivalent to rent of £6.7m)

• Affordable rents on flexible leases; rent / ft not falling, but incentives increased

since 2008/9.

• Diversified rent roll (1,650 tenants); largest tenants are sound covenants; top 20

tenants comprise 32% of rent roll.

• Rental income also diversified by sector: Industrial 52%; Retail 39%; Offices 9%.

Page 4: A PRESENTATION BY ST. MODWEN PROPERTIES ~20,000 consented plots, of which >3,700 in London and South East. • Persimmon joint venture over 2,000 homes: • Access to skills / buying

INCOME-PRODUCING PORTFOLIO

3

• Investment properties at high yields and low affordable rents

• High proportion in value-add category. Large element of value underpinned by land, not held for investment but for redevelopment i.e. very different historic and future characteristics from IPD

Income producing properties as at May 2010 (including Group share of JVs)

Equivalent Net Initial Typical rent/sqft

May 10 Nov 09 May 10 Nov 09

Retail 9.0% 9.9% 7.2% 8.4% £20 - £45 (Zone A)

Offices 8.7% 8.7% 6.7% 5.7% £10 – £20

Industrial 9.2% 9.4% 7.2% 8.4% £1 - £5

Portfolio 9.1% 9.5% 7.1% 8.0%

Page 5: A PRESENTATION BY ST. MODWEN PROPERTIES ~20,000 consented plots, of which >3,700 in London and South East. • Persimmon joint venture over 2,000 homes: • Access to skills / buying

GROSS RENT ROLL - Annualised

4

YTD 2010

£m

43.0

0.8

43.8

5.1

1.7 6.8

(4.6)

(0.1)

45.9

Full year 2009

£m

Opening rent roll 43.2

Acquisitions / (disposals) (2.2)

41.0

7.5

Rent reviews

New lettings

0.3 7.8

Vacations (5.2)

Tenant administrations (0.6)

43.0Closing rent roll

Page 6: A PRESENTATION BY ST. MODWEN PROPERTIES ~20,000 consented plots, of which >3,700 in London and South East. • Persimmon joint venture over 2,000 homes: • Access to skills / buying

Avonmouth – New Earth SolutionsCoed DarcyWythenshawe

Page 7: A PRESENTATION BY ST. MODWEN PROPERTIES ~20,000 consented plots, of which >3,700 in London and South East. • Persimmon joint venture over 2,000 homes: • Access to skills / buying

THE HOPPER – RESIDENTIAL LAND

6

(as at Oct 2010)

Acres Units

With planning recognition

- Allocated in local plan or similar 254 5,385

- Resolution to grant 332 1,354

- Outline permission 496 11,938

- Detailed permission 32 1,070

1,114 19,747

No planning recognition 440 4,771

TOTAL RESIDENTIAL LAND 1,554 24,518

Page 8: A PRESENTATION BY ST. MODWEN PROPERTIES ~20,000 consented plots, of which >3,700 in London and South East. • Persimmon joint venture over 2,000 homes: • Access to skills / buying

RESIDENTIAL LAND

7

• Book carrying cost £379m; 1,554 acres

• ~20,000 consented plots, of which >3,700 in London and South East.

• Persimmon joint venture over 2,000 homes: • Access to skills / buying power of large, quality partner

• Underpins current land values

• Accelerates cash realisation from long-term hopper assets

• Expected end value >£300m

• Our share of additional profit ~£30m over 5 years

• May be extended into additional sites / JVs

• Sale in YTD of 29 acres, for £40.5m: • Confirms gradual re-emergence of a functioning market

• Underpins current land values

• St Modwen Homes on site at Wembley, Farnborough, Locking and Longbridge – targeted annual volume 200 units

Page 9: A PRESENTATION BY ST. MODWEN PROPERTIES ~20,000 consented plots, of which >3,700 in London and South East. • Persimmon joint venture over 2,000 homes: • Access to skills / buying

RESIDENTIAL LAND

8

• Total write-down since May 2007 peak - £71m

• End values per plot • London - £73k

• Other - £31k

• Changes / uncertainties in planning process make existing consents more valuable

Page 10: A PRESENTATION BY ST. MODWEN PROPERTIES ~20,000 consented plots, of which >3,700 in London and South East. • Persimmon joint venture over 2,000 homes: • Access to skills / buying

Avonmouth – New Earth SolutionsCoed Darcy

Page 11: A PRESENTATION BY ST. MODWEN PROPERTIES ~20,000 consented plots, of which >3,700 in London and South East. • Persimmon joint venture over 2,000 homes: • Access to skills / buying

Coed Darcy

Page 12: A PRESENTATION BY ST. MODWEN PROPERTIES ~20,000 consented plots, of which >3,700 in London and South East. • Persimmon joint venture over 2,000 homes: • Access to skills / buying

Wembley Central

Page 13: A PRESENTATION BY ST. MODWEN PROPERTIES ~20,000 consented plots, of which >3,700 in London and South East. • Persimmon joint venture over 2,000 homes: • Access to skills / buying

COMMERCIAL LAND

12

• Book Value - £142m; 2,703 acres

• Large acreages at very low values; restriction on use is occupier demand, not value.

• Number of large pre-sold construction projects underway, completing 2010/11:

• Foodstores – Connah’s Quay (52,000 sq ft Morrisons)

• Public sector – Longbridge (250,000 sq ft) and Rugby (150,000 sq ft) colleges, and Manchester City Council offices in Wythenshawe (48,000 sq ft)

• Other – waste treatment and recycling facility at Avonmouth (300,000 sq ft)

• Remediation work continues at former BP sites • Risks now fully understood, contracts placed

• Steady stream of profits over next 12 months

• Once remediated, land carried at negligible value until alternative use identified and marshalled (eg Crayford and Baglan)

• Sale of Crayford for £5.5m

Page 14: A PRESENTATION BY ST. MODWEN PROPERTIES ~20,000 consented plots, of which >3,700 in London and South East. • Persimmon joint venture over 2,000 homes: • Access to skills / buying

COMMERCIAL LAND

13

• Opportunities arising from the hopper for delivery 2011/12

• Foodstores

• Hednesford; Longbridge (planning submitted and pre-let/sold)

• Great Homer St, Liverpool; Skelmersdale; Leegate; St Helens (in planning and occupier identified)

• Employment

• 110,000 sq ft for Siemens at Lincoln; 90,000 sq ft for Alstom at Rugby (terms agreed)

• Further enquiries: Nisbetts - Avonmouth; Converteam - Stoke; RSS - Sheffield; Reflex Nutrition – Woodingdean.

• Public sector – Swansea University second campus at Baglan Bay; hospital at Coed Darcy (in planning)

• Offices – Taunton.

• Leisure – hotel at Edmonton; Casino at Oldbury; leisure complex at Widnes

Page 15: A PRESENTATION BY ST. MODWEN PROPERTIES ~20,000 consented plots, of which >3,700 in London and South East. • Persimmon joint venture over 2,000 homes: • Access to skills / buying

Avonmouth – New Earth Solutions

Page 16: A PRESENTATION BY ST. MODWEN PROPERTIES ~20,000 consented plots, of which >3,700 in London and South East. • Persimmon joint venture over 2,000 homes: • Access to skills / buying

Bournville College, LongbridgeBournville College, Longbridge

Page 17: A PRESENTATION BY ST. MODWEN PROPERTIES ~20,000 consented plots, of which >3,700 in London and South East. • Persimmon joint venture over 2,000 homes: • Access to skills / buying

Warwickshire College, Rugby

Page 18: A PRESENTATION BY ST. MODWEN PROPERTIES ~20,000 consented plots, of which >3,700 in London and South East. • Persimmon joint venture over 2,000 homes: • Access to skills / buying

OPPORTUNITIES

17

• Continue asset management progress, reduce voids and increase rent roll

• Valuations already at conservative levels (average yield 9.1% - May 2010): no

expectation of downwards correction

• Improving market conditions: foodstores; residential; international manufacturers

• Marshall schemes already in the Hopper, many of which already have planning

• Significant available firepower to fund development or acquisitions on right terms

• Reducing interest costs as hedges unwind; low future effective tax rates

Page 19: A PRESENTATION BY ST. MODWEN PROPERTIES ~20,000 consented plots, of which >3,700 in London and South East. • Persimmon joint venture over 2,000 homes: • Access to skills / buying

Farnborough

Page 20: A PRESENTATION BY ST. MODWEN PROPERTIES ~20,000 consented plots, of which >3,700 in London and South East. • Persimmon joint venture over 2,000 homes: • Access to skills / buying

Baglan BayBaglan Bay

Page 21: A PRESENTATION BY ST. MODWEN PROPERTIES ~20,000 consented plots, of which >3,700 in London and South East. • Persimmon joint venture over 2,000 homes: • Access to skills / buying

VALUE DRIVERS 2011-2014

20

• Residential

• House sales (Persimmon JV / St Modwen Homes)

• Land value increase

• Project MoDEL

£120m 60p/share

• Development pipeline

• See next slides £60m 30p

Total visible NAV increase 2011-2014 £180m 90p

Current consensus NAV Nov 2010 £420m 210p

Page 22: A PRESENTATION BY ST. MODWEN PROPERTIES ~20,000 consented plots, of which >3,700 in London and South East. • Persimmon joint venture over 2,000 homes: • Access to skills / buying

DEVELOPMENT PIPELINE

21

• Longbridge – Foodstore (85,000 sq ft); retail scheme (80,000 sq ft); hotel (75 beds)

• Hednesford – Tesco (85,000 sq ft) plus 40,000 sq ft retail scheme

• Crayford – sale of 13 acres of regenerated land

• Wythenshawe – Manchester city council offices; further 40,000 sq ft retail phase

• Skelmersdale – 70,000 sq ft foodstore plus 100,000 sq ft office

• Avonmouth – Nisbetts (125,000 sq ft)

• Quedgeley – Design and build 300,000 sq ft distribution warehouse

• Swansea – Swansea University campus

• Taunton – 50,000 sq ft office development

• Edmonton – Travel Lodge hotel and 20,000 sq ft retail redevelopment

• Elephant & Castle – Major refurbishment and extension

• Woodingdean – Reflex Nutrition (35,000 sq ft)

• Lincoln – 130,000 sq ft manufacturing facility for Siemens

• Birchley – Casino

• Widnes – ice rink; cinema; bowling alley; restaurants

• Stoke – 30,000 sq ft office for Bet365; 185,000 sq ft manufacturing facility for Converteam

• Great Homer St, Liverpool – 80,000 sq ft foodstore and further 50,000 sq ft retail

Page 23: A PRESENTATION BY ST. MODWEN PROPERTIES ~20,000 consented plots, of which >3,700 in London and South East. • Persimmon joint venture over 2,000 homes: • Access to skills / buying

CASE STUDY - LONGBRIDGE

22

• Longbridge Town Centre – £100m phase of regeneration of former MG Rover

car factory. Planning application to be submitted for town centre phase in Q4

2010:

• 85,000 sq ft food store – pre sold

• Additional 80,000 sq ft retail, comprising 24 shops and restaurants

• 75 bed hotel

• Town centre phase also anchored by Bournville College – pre-sold; under

construction; completion 2011; will house 10,000 students in 250,000 sq ft

campus.

• Housing – St Modwen Homes on site with 115 unit scheme. Persimmon to lodge

planning application for 300 homes.

Page 24: A PRESENTATION BY ST. MODWEN PROPERTIES ~20,000 consented plots, of which >3,700 in London and South East. • Persimmon joint venture over 2,000 homes: • Access to skills / buying

Baglan BayLongbridge planLongbridge Town Centre

Page 25: A PRESENTATION BY ST. MODWEN PROPERTIES ~20,000 consented plots, of which >3,700 in London and South East. • Persimmon joint venture over 2,000 homes: • Access to skills / buying

Longbridge Town Centre

Page 26: A PRESENTATION BY ST. MODWEN PROPERTIES ~20,000 consented plots, of which >3,700 in London and South East. • Persimmon joint venture over 2,000 homes: • Access to skills / buying

CASE STUDY - HEDNESFORD

25

• Planning granted.

• Site acquired with vacant possession in June 2011.

• Foodstore pre-sold to Tesco.

• Leisure element pre-sold.

Page 27: A PRESENTATION BY ST. MODWEN PROPERTIES ~20,000 consented plots, of which >3,700 in London and South East. • Persimmon joint venture over 2,000 homes: • Access to skills / buying

Baglan BayHednesford Plan

Page 28: A PRESENTATION BY ST. MODWEN PROPERTIES ~20,000 consented plots, of which >3,700 in London and South East. • Persimmon joint venture over 2,000 homes: • Access to skills / buying

FINANCING – STRONG BALANCE SHEET

27

• Strong balance sheet (LTV 31%)

• Banking facilities being renewed / increased with no changes to terms & conditions (Headroom > £200m)

• Trading profit throughout downturn

• Return to profit before tax in 2010, with positive valuation results

• EPRA NAV of 233p => current share price discount of ~25%

Page 29: A PRESENTATION BY ST. MODWEN PROPERTIES ~20,000 consented plots, of which >3,700 in London and South East. • Persimmon joint venture over 2,000 homes: • Access to skills / buying

SUMMARY BALANCE SHEET

28

Property assets

Income-producing

Residential

Commercial

Borrowings

Other (net)

Net Assets

EPRA NAV per share

Net assets per share

Loan to value

May 2010

£m

501

379

142

(302)

(292)

428

233p

214p

31%

Page 30: A PRESENTATION BY ST. MODWEN PROPERTIES ~20,000 consented plots, of which >3,700 in London and South East. • Persimmon joint venture over 2,000 homes: • Access to skills / buying

CONCLUSION

29

• Managing income successfully

• Significant activity in residential land bank

• Good value creation via marshalling

Robust outlook for values

• Pipeline of future development opportunities gives confidence for future profits

Recommenced dividend at last set of results and intend to continue a

progressive dividend policy

• Strong balance sheet

Page 31: A PRESENTATION BY ST. MODWEN PROPERTIES ~20,000 consented plots, of which >3,700 in London and South East. • Persimmon joint venture over 2,000 homes: • Access to skills / buying

APPENDICES

Page 32: A PRESENTATION BY ST. MODWEN PROPERTIES ~20,000 consented plots, of which >3,700 in London and South East. • Persimmon joint venture over 2,000 homes: • Access to skills / buying

THE HOPPER

31

Total acres

Developable

- Retail and leisure

- Employment

- Residential

- Unspecified

1999 2009 2010

3,239 9,468 9,760

105 433 399

702 2,735 2,828

652 1,564 1,554

- 872 883

1,459 5,604 5,664

• Employment land carried at £100k - £350k per acre

• Residential land written down to an end value equivalent to ~£450-500k per acre (£1.7m for NW London)

• Land carried at existing use value, with no recognition of value created by future changes of use

Page 33: A PRESENTATION BY ST. MODWEN PROPERTIES ~20,000 consented plots, of which >3,700 in London and South East. • Persimmon joint venture over 2,000 homes: • Access to skills / buying

INCOME-PRODUCING PORTFOLIO

Top 20 tenants – annual rent (£m)

32

Alstom Power Limited. 5.9

Nanjing Automobile Corporation (UK) Ltd. 1.5

Converteam UK Limited. 1.1

Siemens Industrial Turbomachinery Ltd. 1.0

Areva T & D (UK) Limited. 0.7

Blue Diamond UK Limited. 0.7

Paragon Automotive Services Limited. 0.6

Cranfield University. 0.6

Corus UK Limited. 0.6

Akcros Chemicals Limited. 0.5

Peacock's Stores Limited. 0.5

Palatial Leisure Limited. 0.4

Goodyear Dunlop Tyres (uk) Limited. 0.4

Wireless Data Services Ltd. 0.3

Knights Rail Services Ltd. 0.3

Iceland Foods Limited. 0.3

Blackburn with Darwen Primary Care Trust. 0.3

Romtech Limited. 0.3

Jet logistics Limited. 0.3

Page 34: A PRESENTATION BY ST. MODWEN PROPERTIES ~20,000 consented plots, of which >3,700 in London and South East. • Persimmon joint venture over 2,000 homes: • Access to skills / buying

- -

RESULTS

33

£8.3m

£17.4m

£10.1m

£20.1m

£26.7m

1p

233p

214p

£5.0m

£15.1m

H1

2010

H1 Full Year

2009 2009

TRADING PROFIT £6.8m £8.4m

Net rental income £17.1m £33.5m

Property profits £3.1m £7.6m

Market yield movements £(122.6)m £(149.1)m

Added value £25.0m £26.8m

Property valuations / NRV £(97.6)m £(122.3)m

PROFIT / (LOSS) BEFORE TAX £(98.3)m £(119.4)m

Dividend per share

EPRA NAV per share 231p* 219p

NAV per share 211p* 200p

(*adjusted for equity)

Page 35: A PRESENTATION BY ST. MODWEN PROPERTIES ~20,000 consented plots, of which >3,700 in London and South East. • Persimmon joint venture over 2,000 homes: • Access to skills / buying

FINANCIAL RESOURCES - GROUP

34

May 2010 Nov 2009 May 2009

Net debt £302m £319m £426m

Committed bank facilities £519m £519m £519m

Available undrawn facilities £217m £200m £93m

Gearing

Actual 70% 80% 133%

Covenant 175% 175% 175%

Actual including JVs (no covenant) 92% 106% 165%

Interest cover (excl. unrealised revaluations)

Actual 1.5x 1.7x 2.1x

Covenant 1.25x 1.25x 1.25x

Weighted ave interest rate 4.6% 5.0% 5.0%

% of debt fixed (excl. VSM) 102% 99% 73%

Page 36: A PRESENTATION BY ST. MODWEN PROPERTIES ~20,000 consented plots, of which >3,700 in London and South East. • Persimmon joint venture over 2,000 homes: • Access to skills / buying

CURRENT BANKING FACILITIES (£m)

BANK GROUP VSM JVs EXPIRY

Lloyds / HBOS 140

13

80

Nov 12 & Aug 13

Mar 14

Sep 12

RBS 95

80

Nov 15

Sep 12

Barclays 84

38

Apr 12 & Sep 15

Mar 14

Bank of Ireland 50

40

Nov 14

Sep 12

HSBC 75 Jun 12

Fortis 38 Jun 12

Others 49

6

Nov 14

2019

Total Facilities 444 100 244

Net Debt May 10 251 51 190

% Hedged 102% 100% 76%

35