a european safety strategy initiative (essi)

FAST Generic Presentation March, 2007. 1

FASTFAST

European Commercial Aviation Safety Team (ECAST)

Future Aviation Safety Team (FAST)Generic Presentation – “Draft”March 2007

A European Safety Strategy Initiative (ESSI)


FASTFAST

PURPOSE

• Explanation – JSSI/ESSI/ECAST context– What is FAST?– What it’s not…

• Present “FAST Method”

• Provide overview of process & results


FASTFASTEXPLANATION

• HISTORY - JSSI TERMS OF REFERENCE• FOCUS AREAS• HAZARD IDENTIFICATION• RISK MANAGEMENT MODEL• FAST CHARTER• ESSI/ECAST IS SUCESSOR OF JSSI• SUMMARY OF FAST PRODUCTS• PROBLEM APPOACH• FUTURE AREAS OF CHANGE• WHAT THE FAST IS AND IS NOT…


FASTFAST

HISTORY – JSSI Terms of Reference• Reduce the annual number of

accidents and fatalities in each JAA member state and its operators irrespective of the growth in air traffic

• Focused safety agenda with deliverables

• Partnership + cooperation + communication + implementation

• Structured complementary approaches, leading for:– Historic FAA/CAST– Prognostic JAA/JSSI

Reference JAA website http://www.jaa.nl/jssi/profile.html


FASTFASTFOCUS AREAS

CAST

Uncontained Engine Failures Turbulence

COMMON JSSI - CAST Controlled Flight into Terrain

Approach & Landing

Loss of Control Weather Runway incursions

75% of all commercial aviation accidents 1994-2003

JSSI• Design Related

• Future Aviation Safety

• Occupant Safety & Survivability


FASTFASTHAZARD IDENTIFICATIONHAZARD IDENTIFICATION

•Historic & current operational data exist

•Expertise and experience exist•Current analysis tools can:

– Identify hazards– Define their causal factors– Establish frequencies (risk)– Provide learning

•Establishes the baseline•Provides validation for predictive risk assessment techniques

•No operational data exist, but conclusions can be drawn from current & future trends

•No experts or experience exist but domain experts know “what keeps them up at night”

•Qualitative hazard identification:– Predict likely hazards– Identify possible causal

factors•Quantitative risk assessment adds:

– Refinement of probable causal factors & estimate of frequencies

– Bases for focused studies using computational & human-in-the-loop simulations

Retrospective(Historic & Diagnostic)

Predictive(Prognostic - FAST)


FASTFAST

Strategic Use

Heterogeneous INCIDENT & OPERATIONAL DATA

Monitor, codify, classify, & merge

Identify Patterns

Statistical & CausalAnalysis

Convert to Information

Evaluate frequency & severity

INTERVENTION&INNOVATION - Design - Operations - Investment - etc.

HIS

TO

RIC

FE

ED

BA

CK

LO

OP

RISK MANAGEMENT MODEL SUGGESTED BY FAST

Heterogeneous ACCIDENT DATA

Gather, codify, classify, & merge

Identify Events

Historic & CausalAnalysis


Determine contributing factors & severity

DIA

GN

OS

TIC

FE

ED

BA

CK

LO

OP

PR

OG

NO

ST

IC “

FU

TU

RE

S”

FE

ED

BA

CK

LO

OP

Systematic measurement, hazard

qualification & quantification and/or

scenario-specific Monte Carlo simulations

Prediction &Refined Causal

Analyses RAPID RESPONSE

TacticalUse

Codify, classify, & merge

Identify Trends

Future HazardAnalysis


Predict domains& severity

FUTURE CHANGES


FASTFASTFAST Charter

Vision • Identify possible future hazards to the safety of aviation in

order to prevent those hazards from appearing within the future aviation system.

Mission• Enable individuals or organizations and in particular the

ESSI/ECAST, to evaluate proposed changes to the aviation system, identify hazards that may be created by such changes and by interaction effects, and subsequently develop mitigating actions.

Goal• To prevent aviation accidents by eliminating or mitigating

future hazards.

European Aviation Safety Agency

January 31, 2007

ESSI by EASA has succeededto JSSI by JAA

During the JAA – EASA transition, EASA has begun to build up the European Strategic Safety Initiative (ESSI) in 2005

ESSI foundation meeting took place on April 27 2006 and the JSSI-ESSI handover was performed on June 28 2006


January 31, 2007

The 3 ESSI Pillars

3 pillarsCommercial Aviation (ECAST)

Working with CAST Partnership

Rotorcraft (EHEST) Working in IHST Partnership

General Aviation (EGAST) Safety Committee Promotion

Consistent approach to safety risk management


January 31, 2007

ESSI / ECAST Construction

27 April 2006Foundation group: Bring the parties together

13 July 2006Making a charter

12 October 2006Agree foundation documents

13 & 14 December 2006Establishing a work programme

FAST reconducted as a Working Group of ECAST

2007Full schedule of activities


January 31, 2007

Where FAST fits in ESSI

COORDINATION GROUP

ECASTCOMMERCIAL AVIATION

SAFETY TEAM

EHESTHELICOPTER SAFETY

TEAM

EGESTGENERAL AVIATION

SAFETY TEAM

FAST WORKING GROUPS

WORKING GROUPS

Open and Closed Forums

Other WORKING GROUPS


January 31, 2007

1. Assess and Prioritise Accident Risks and Causal factors in Europe (yearly revised)

COM

M UNICATION

COORDINATION

Mid Term Programme Review - 2012

2. Identify and Review Safety Programmes

3. Define Safety Performance Metrics

4. Define Safety Enhancement Objectives

5. Institute Safety Programmes

6. Make Recommendations for Safety Enhancements

7. Perform Costs Benefits Analysis

8. Develop Action Plans

9. Implement Action Plans and Monitor Implementation

10. Monitor Action Plans Efficacy to Achieve Safety Objectives

ECAST Process

Main FAST Input: Top Emerging and Future risks


FASTFASTFAST Summary of Results

• A structured methodology incorporated into a formal handbook.

• A prioritized list of Areas of Change [AoC].

• Two applications/tests of the methodology:– Recommendations resulting from the study of the AOC “Increasing

Crew Reliance on Cockpit Automation”, e.g. related to the Air Ground Space System [AGS]

– Results from the study of future hazards generated by the concept of operations for 2011developed by EUROCONTROL.

• A FAST website


FASTFASTPROBLEM APPROACH

Does it exist yet?

Has it caused

an accident? Is it known?DiscoveryProcesses

InterventionProcesses

Prognostic Design of new Aviation System components or practices p

reve

nts

Historic e.g. Accident Investigation d

isco

vers

Diagnostic e.g. ASAP, COSP,

ISDSR, LOSA, FOQA, ISDSR,

ASRS, SRB. ECCAIRS, ODA

etc.

dis

cove

rs

Prognostice.g. Emergent,

FAST, etc.

dis

cove

rs

Diagnostic

pre

ven

ts

informs intervention


0 0 0

0 0 1

1 0 0

1 0 1


1 1 1

e.g. Regulation, Product Improvement, CAST, ECAST, company safety (e.g. SRP) processes, FSF/ALAR tool kit, Human factors tool kit etc.

Historic

more

accidents

pre

ven

ts

1 1 0

1 = yes, 0 = no


FASTFASTFUTURE AREAS OF CHANGE

NOW 2010 2015 2020Past

AoC a phase out of Gen I transports

AoC c

AoC b

AoC d

AoC g

AoC j

advent of very-light jets AoC l

AoC h

AoC eAoC f

AoC i

AoC k

t

Spe

ctru

m a

nd M

agni

tude

of

Are

as o

f C

hang

e A

ffec

ting

the

Fut

ure

Avi

atio

n S

yste

m

Introduction of UAV’s


FASTFASTIMPORTANCE OF IDENTIFYINGAREAS OF CHANGE…The future is not necessarily a direct extrapolation of the past.

Present and near-term safety interventions that are intended to prevent future accidents caused by previously known hazards may not be enough to prevent new types of accidents from happening in the future.

A mid-1990’s study by a major manufacturer looked at accidents in which airplane systems were involved in an accident or where they could have prevented the event and did not. It was found that in approximately 70% of the accidents involving airplane systems, the original design assumptions were inadequate for the situation existing at the time of the accident due to changes in…

- the aviation system- airplane operational usage- personnel demographics- evolving infrastructure or other considerations.


FASTFASTCHANGING NATURE OF ACCIDENTS

“Technological innovations are changing both aircraft and the airspace in which they operate. Cumulatively, these technological changes aim to increase reliability throughout the aviation system and vastly improve safety in the skies. These changes include systems designed to move aircraft more efficiently in the air and on the ground, methods for providing pilots and ground controllers with better information about traffic and weather conditions, and improvements in aircraft components and design.

“The growth in aircraft system complexity is exponential in many areas, with the most significant trend being the inter-connectedness of systems. Current-generation aircraft operate as highly integrated systems with extensive cross-linking. As system complexity grows, so does the concern about hidden design flaws or possible equipment defects.

“Accidents involving complex systems and events present investigators with new and different failure modes that multiply the number of potential scenarios they must consider. The historically common causes of accidents are occurring less frequently, leaving more challenging accidents to diagnose.” *

* - Safety in the Skies Personnel and Parties in NTSB Aviation Accident Investigations-Master Volume, Chapter Three: Emerging Aviation Trends: Potential Impact on Aircraft Accident Investigations, By: Liam P. Sarsfield, William Stanley, Cynthia C. Lebow, Emile Ettedgui, Garth Henning, published in 2000


FASTFASTAreas of Change: Some Principles

• Changes must be understood as broadly as possible.

• To bring consistency and coherence to the process, Areas of Change are grouped by categories.

• The diagram on the next sheet illustrates the eleven broad categories of Areas of Change affecting aviation identified by the FAST


FASTFASTFAST AREAS OF CHANGE CATEGORIES

Count Category

29 Aircraft

11 Maintenance, Repairs, Overhaul

19 Operations

21 Crew

7 Passenger

10 Organization

12 Authority

22 Air Navigation System

7 Airport

35 Environment

5 Space Operations

___

179 Total Areas of Change

as of 24 February 2006

GLOBALAVIATIONSYSTEM

AIRCRAFT

MAINTENANCE,REPAIRS,

OVERHAUL

OPERATIONS

CREW

PASSENGER

ORGANIZATIONAUTHORITY

AIRNAVIGATION

SYSTEM

AIRPORT

ENVIRONMENT

SPACEOPERATIONS

The FAST continuously solicits submission of new, candidate AoC’s via the process shown in Backup Charts.

Submissions should be made to Rudi den Hertog, Chief Engineer, Fokker Services, FAST Co-chair, [email protected]


FASTFASTWhat is an Area of Change• The Global Aviation System (GAS) is in fact a "system of

systems." • Examples of "systems" include

– airplanes, – air traffic control systems, – company processes, and – regulatory systems.

• The future GAS will be fundamentally different than what exists today because changes affecting the GAS will continuously occur as the system evolves into the future.

• The ongoing process of change including both evolutionary and sudden, disruptive events or paradigm shifts must be considered for effective safety risk management.


FASTFAST

2020 situation2020 situation•Integrated Air Ground Space System • Operates during all phases of flight • Communicates through data link

Civil aerospace challengesCivil aerospace challenges•Increased aerospace capacity • Better respect of the environment (“sustainable growth” approach)• improved safety

Air Ground Space System

Distributed multi agent systemDistributed multi agent system•Free routing/free flight•New airspace classification•4-D dimensional trajectories


FASTFASTImportance• It is important that aviation practitioners who are

designing future systems have foreknowledge of potential future hazards.

• A change to any one system could affect other systems. Interactions of future changes to several systems could likewise affect the whole.

• These changes could have adverse impacts on the safety of the Global Aviation System.

• The goal of "discovering" future hazards is to eliminate, avoid or mitigate hazards in the future that may arise as a result of the changes. This will reduce the risk of future incidents and accidents.


FASTFAST

WHAT’S FAST?

• OBJECTIVES

• WHAT’S SO SPECIAL?

• WHAT FAST IS AND WHAT NOT

• COMPOSITION

• CORE TEAM


FASTFAST

OBJECTIVES of the FAST method

Studying potential future changes in the Aerospace System in order to :• Identify relevant Areas of Change [AoC] either within or

external to the aviation system• Identify Hazards, both inherent to the AoC as well as

those arising from interaction with other AoC’s• Develop recommendations to eliminate hazards or

mitigate their effects, such as:• Tools to analyze and mitigate the hazards including studies

and simulations to quantify the risks of identified hazards• Providing probable hazard information to influence entities that

shape the future


FASTFAST

DISTINCTIVE CHARACTERISTICS

• Concept of considering a comprehensive set of “Areas of Change” affecting aviation safety

• Using a broad representation of domain experts representing diverse affected organizations within an Expert Team hazard-discovery setting looking for direct and indirect hazards

• Direct- as well as Indirect hazard(s) identification, with indirect hazards resulting from interaction among AoC’s within a novel future operational scenario - identifies hazard catalysts not ammenable to computational modeling

• Maintaining and providing to the aviation community an up-to-date repository of AoC’s, possible aviation futures, Technology Watch Items & hazards.

• Offering a Future Hazard Analysis method that can be used universally by any organization

• Having a FAST Core Team ready to assist Customers using its Future Hazard Analysis method


FASTFASTWhat the FAST is and is not…

The FAST process is a systematic approach to identification of:– Wide range of changes affecting aviation safety (AoC’s)– Systemic vulnerabilities and hazards within highly integrated systems – Boundary aspects not only within aviation but external to it that may

be the catalysts for future hazards including common cause factors and interactions

The FAST process is not a risk assessment method - that is, it doesn’t estimate relative frequency of hazards.

The FAST generally does not recommend or develop safety interventions - FAST can feed Risk Assessment and RiskManagement processes in which safety interventions are developed and implemented, and action efficacy is monitored. These are best left to the customers.


FASTFAST

COMPOSITION

• MEMBERS from

DGAC, CAA-UK, CAA-NL, ENAC, EASA,

Civil Aircraft Inspection Board of Poland,

ASD, EC/Joint Research Centre, EUROCONTROL,

ERA/EASYJET, IFALPA/SAS Norway, IAPA, IFA, Air Transport Association of Canada, NASA

Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, Fokker, Rockwell Collins• CORE TEAM is driving force, meeting approximately

quarterly


FASTFAST

FAST METHOD

• DEFINITIONS– CUSTOMERS– STAKEHOLDERS– EXPERT TEAMS– TECHNOLOGY WATCH ITEMS

• PROCESS FLOWS


FASTFASTDEFINITIONS:CUSTOMERSCUSTOMERS are organizations that have are organizations that have

authority to either recommend or implement authority to either recommend or implement changes to the Global Aviation System changes to the Global Aviation System

STAKEHOLDERSSTAKEHOLDERS are organizations that may are organizations that may be impacted by an envisioned change to the be impacted by an envisioned change to the Global Aviation SystemGlobal Aviation System

EXPERT TEAM

• Drawn from Customer & Stakeholder organizations

• Selected by FAST and Customer collaboratively based on the envisioned future being considered

• Must have specific expertise associated with the future being evaluated

• No experience with FAST method required

initiate changesinitiate changes

affected by changesaffected by changes


FASTFASTDEFINITIONS, cont.

TECHNOLOGY WATCH ITEMS• A repository of tell-tale advances in technology and other relevant

factors that may indicate which possible aviation future is unfolding and thereby signal if postulated direct hazards and/or indirect hazards (interaction hazards) are coming about.

• To be revisited after significant events (incidents & accidents) and be part of risk assessment plans.

• Maintained for the benefit of the worldwide aviation community similar to the CAST Problem Statements.

FA

ST

Cor

e T

eam

R

espo

nsib

ility

Commission Expert Teams

Advocate the FAST Philosophy

Guide FAST Facilitators

Cus

tom

er/

Sta

keho

lder

R

espo

nsib

ility

Exp

ert

Tea

m

Res

pons

ibili

ty

Enhance the FAST Method

3. Assemble an Expert

Team

1.Responsible Party Proposes Change(s) to Global Aviation System; recognizes need for

systematic prediction of hazard(s) associated with

changes and need to design potential hazards out of system or avoid or mitigate hazard(s)

4.Understand Customer

Requirements and Future of Interest

10.Inform FAST &

Customers Regarding results

2.Define Scope of

Expert Team Hazard-

IdentificationStudy

9.Formulate

Recommendations& Identify Watch

Items

8. (optional)Identify Mitigations & Effects of Areas of

Change on Mitigations

7.Enrich Hazards by

Evaluating Interactions with Areas of Change

5. (optional)Identify Intrinsic Hazards Within

Future of Interest

6.Identify Areas of

Change Pertinent to Future of Interest

Enhance and/orModify Planned

Changes

Maintain Futures &

Watch Items

Maintain Areasof ChangeRepository

FAST Methodology / Process


FASTFAST

OVERVIEW of PROCESS & RESULTS

Work progressed in phases:

– Phase I (Oct/99-Sep/00): Established methodology, identified 157 changes affecting the aviation system.

– Phase II (Nov/00-July/01): Prioritised Areas of Change

– Phase III (Oct/01-Jan/04): Analysed highest priority Area of Change: Increasing Reliance on Flight Deck Automation

– Phase IV (Feb 05-Mar06) : Re-check/update AoC list, develop Process Handbook/Generic Presentation/Public Website,

– Phase V (Mar 06-July 06: ConOps 2011 analysis [ANS-1].


FASTFAST

OVERVIEW OF RESULTS

• TOP 4 AREAS OF CHANGE• SYNTHESIS FROM TOP 20 AoC• PHASE III OUTPUT• ConOps 2011 [ANS-1] ANALYSIS


FASTFAST

TOP 4 AREAS OF CHANGE

PRIORITISED & CATEGORIZED FROM CURRENT LIST OF 179

• Increasing Crew Reliance on Flight Deck Automation (Aircraft)

• Emergence of New Concepts for Airspace Management (Air

Navigation System)

• Introduction of New Technologies with Unforeseen Human Factors

Aspects (Crew)

• Proliferation of Heterogeneous Aircraft with Widely-varying

Equipment and Capabilities (Aircraft)


FASTFAST

SYNTHESIS FROM TOP 20 AREAS OF CHANGE

1. Introduction of new air, ground, and satellite-based automated systems

2. Increased heterogeneity of: aircraft types & flight capabilities, equipage & software, airspace utilization approaches, and development directions & timelines for airborne, ground, and space-based aviation support systems

3. Increase in absolute numbers of aviation operations and corresponding reduction in safety margins as a result of: increased demand, decreased separation and more frequent operation in or near adverse weather conditions

4. Ensuring adequate maintenance of air- and ground-based systems in an environment of increased outsourcing of work, increased complexity of hardware, firmware & software, and a shortage of qualified maintenance personnel

Common threads as they appeared within the 2001 top 20 AoC synthesis.


FASTFASTPHASE III OUTPUT

Analysis of highest priority AoC: Increasing Crew Reliance on Flight Deck Automation:

– Identification/prioritisation of hazards

– Development and prioritisation of recommendations addressing most important hazards

– Introduction of Technology Watch Items

– Present the methodology used and lessons-learned


FASTFASTConOps is the Eurocontrol

Concept of Operation for 2011FAST was tasked to identify

future hazards in ConOps

Two workshops held (6-9 June and 17-20 July 2006) with European and US experts

Eurocontrol’s FAST – ConOps Workshops


FASTFASTCONOPS 2011 - CONTENT

Concept of Operations 2011 Description of the ATM System in 2011 - the Main Changes

The ATM Components, OI’s and System Enablers The ATM Operational Model

The Key Enablers – SWIM, the Network Operations Plan and Collaborative Decision Making

The Principles of the Layered Planning ProcessHigh-Level System Capabilities

Business Impact Statements

AnnexesThe Actors – Roles and Responsibilities Operational Scenarios and Use cases

Air Traffic Flow &

CapacityManagement

Airspace Organisation &Management

Airspace User

Operations

Airport Operations

Information Management &

Services

Separation Assurance

Synchronisation

FASTFAST

FAST – ConOps Evaluation: From EUROCONTROL final comments

Lessons learned Very useful exercise Hazards identified may allow improving ConOps Pass results to SESAR, maybe a FAST customer FAST methodology requires further development

Subsequent development FAST Handbook upgraded Clarification of AoC use for:

Hazard Identification / EnrichmentMitigations

Link to classical Risk Assessment Methods Transferable methodology


FASTFAST

http://fast.jrc.it/Under development

http://fast.jrc.ec.europa.eu/Final URL

FAST Website


FASTFAST

An essential element of a safety strategy

Future hazards can not be entirely extrapolated from the past

There is a need to address future changes and hazards in safety today

FAST offers a method of worldwide interest


FASTFAST

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION

For FAST Output Status see

http://fast.jrc.it


FASTFASTBACKUP CHARTS


FASTFASTAcronyms

• ADREP ICAO Accident/Incident Data Reporting System• AoC Area of Change developed by FAST• AGS Air Ground Space System• ANSP Air Navigation Service Provider• ATC Air Traffic Control• AWOS Automatic Weather Observation System• CAST Commercial Aviation Safety Team (North America)• CICTT CAST/ICAO Common Taxonomy Team• ConOps In FAST context: Eurocontrol’s Concept of Operations

for 2011• ConOps General: air traffic providers concept of operations• ESSI European Safety Strategy Initiative• ECAST European Commercial Aviation Safety Team (EuroCAST)• ECCAIRS European Co-ordination Centre for Aviation Incident

Reporting Systems


FASTFASTAcronyms - continued

• FAST Future Aviation Safety Team• GTG Gate-to-Gate• ICAO International Civil Aviation Organization• JAA Joint Aviation Authorities (Europe)• JSSI JAA Safety Strategy Initiative• JSAT Joint Safety Analysis Team (CAST)• JSIT Joint Safety Implementation Team (CAST)• JPDO Joint Planning and Development Office (part of NGATS in

USA)• NGATS Next Generation Air Transportation System (USA)• SESAR Single European Sky ATM Research Programme• TCAS Traffic Collision Avoidance System• TAWS Terrain Avoidance Warning System


FASTFASTFAST Contribution to CAST Safety Plan

Introducing and integrating the Prospective component of safety

AccidentAnalysis JSATS

“Historic”

AccidentJSIT’s

SafetyEnhancements

CASTPlan

Incident AnalysisProcess

“Historic”

SafetyMetrics

JIMDATProcess

EmergingRisk

ChangingRisk

Enhancements

AviationSystem

Changes

PresentIn MasterFactors?

Yes

No

ExternalChanges

Identify FutureHazards

IdentifyCausalFactors

DevelopContributing

Factors(new or

emerging)

MasterContributing

Factors

B. Smith; 2/7/06

CAST Plan Revision

OperationalData Analysis(NASA ISDSR)“Diagnostic”

Predictive Analysis(FAST & FST)“Prognostic”

RemainingRisk

JSA/IT


FASTFASTArea of Change (AoC) Submission Process

Continuous CallFor New Aoc’s

FAST Core Team

External Group or Individual

CandidateAoC

Comparison withExisting AoC List

New?

Evaluate forPotential to

Enrich ExistingAoC’s

no

Refine Wording& Add Descriptive

Comments

Review forFAST Consistency

Okay?yes

Concatenateto ExistingAoC List

yes

no


FASTFAST


FASTFAST

Examples of global Air Ground Space system Technology Watch ItemsTheme I

• Development of system using Artificial Intelligence (e.g. neural nets, fuzzy logic).

• Development of “intelligent” aircraft (with systems of smart sensors, microprocessors and adaptive control that monitor operator performance, environment and automatically avoid hazardous situations)

• Emergence of computational capabilities and monitoring systems that could replace conventional air traffic control functions

• Development of “intelligent” vehicles (e.g. smart cars) as cross fertilisation may affect aviation

• Collaborative decision making (CDM); Computer Support to Cooperative Work (CSCW)

• eSafety of road and air transport and eHealth, Multimodal Interfaces, Semantic-based knowledge systems, technology-enhanced learning


FASTFAST

If at some point in the past, a study of the potential future hazards related to Reduced Vertical Separation Minima (RVSM) had been conducted, the Expert Team performing the analysis would likely have needed to generate the following description of the potential consequences of implementation of RVSM in order to extract potential future hazards…

"Assuming that each airplane has physical enhancements and each crew has procedures to properly manage vertical separation less than current rules, we believe that increased collision hazard is not likely. There however is a slight hazard increase due to wake turbulence descending from overhead airplanes and causing loss of control of encountering aircraft. We therefore recommend that there a study be done of all existing airplanes to determine the likelihood of a strong cruise wake descending to flight levels occupied by other aircraft, minus the altitude uncertainty. Altitude uncertainty must be considered and quantified in the study however, because actual separation may be much less than the candidate reduced value. We also recommend review of TCAS/ACAS protection with the FAA to ensure that the TCAS will not significantly contribute to collision likelihood. We want to avoid TCAS causing an accident. We hear however that the Military will be fielding new navigation technology, GPS, which if applied to civilian airplanes, will significantly increase the lateral precision with which airplanes will fly intended airways. Airplanes will then be closer to each other vertically and laterally. In this case, collision and/or wake vortex upset risk may significantly increase. If you see intentions to adopt GPS technology for civil transport navigation (watch item), then we recommend that studies are conducted and the Industry agrees to mitigating practices such as intentional cross-track stagger. Care should be taken when doing so to ensure that wind direction is considered in the study."

Example* of how Customer Vision of Future would have beenused in past…

* - purely hypothetical; not representative of FAST recommendations

a european safety strategy initiative (essi)

Documents

safety todayfast

cast safety plan

safety strategy future

fast contribution

fast customerfast methodology

fast conops evaluation

future changes

development office