วิสัยทัศน์หนี้สาธารณะไทย
DESCRIPTION
การบรรยายพิเศษ วิชา ศธง664 (วิสัยทัศน์ทางธุรกิจ) ภาคเรียนที่ 1/2555 "วิสัยทัศน์หนี้สาธารณะไทย"TRANSCRIPT
Career @ PDMO Career @ PDMO ! Last Resort
1
: ป ใ ฒ ป
: ป ใ แ
(Pro-active Debt Management)
2. ฒ ใ ป แ แ 3 ฒ ใ แ แ ป
: ฎ แ แ ป แ ป ฯ
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
23-25 26-30 31-35 36-40 41-45 46-50 51-55 56-60
40%
PDMO is driven by young generation with wits & willby
AGE
Total = 223
AGE range
22 24 25 26 28
HiPPS
27
ป
ใ
23
HiPPS
บรหารสง (10) 1
ทรงคณวฒ (10) 1
บรหารตน (9) 1 1
อ านวยการสง (9 บส) 1 2 3 4 5
เชยวชาญ (9 ชช) 1 2 3 4
อ านวยการตน (8 บก) 1 2
ช านาญการพเศษ (8ว) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
ช านาญการ (6-7) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44
ปฏบตการ (3-5) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
2553 130
110
:
1/10 133
1/10 235
1/57 1,200 1/53 2,000 1/35 3,600
1/100 4,700 1/100 18,500
+10
+12553
2553
2
PDMOCFO ป
“ ”
3
49.19 %
2.15 %
4.18 %
( FIDF) 24.29 %
9 %
หนสาธารณะ (พ.ค. 55) รวม
หนทรฐบาลกโดยตรง 2,215,727.68
หนทรฐกเพอชดเชยความเสยหายใหแกกองทนเพอการฟนฟฯ 1,133,973.76
หนเงนกลวงหนาเพอปรบโครงสรางหน (Prefunding) 80,450.00
หนรฐวสาหกจทไมเปนสถาบนการเงน 1,033,898.03
หนรฐวสาหกจทเปนสถาบนการเงน (รฐบาลคาประกน) 195,230.07
หนหนวยงานอนของรฐ 8,820.00
รวม 4,668,099.54
4
GDP as of August 2011 is 10,613.43 million THB using weighted average NESDB Figures of 2010 GDP = and 2011 GDP = 10,867.73 i.e. (10104.82 x 4/12) + 10867.73 x 8/12)
Public debt/GDP continues to decline
as annual GDP growth outpaces the debt growth
March
Direct Government Debt FIDF + FIDF Non-Financial SOEs Debt
Financial SOEs Debt (Guaranteed) FIDF Debt Other Government Agencies Debt
% of GDP
19
2%
18
5%
15
6%
13
2%
11
8%
11
5%
10
8%
10
5%
99
%
95
%
87
%
83
%
80
%
80
%
78
%
78
%
77
%
75
%
72
%
70
%
69
%
68
%
67
%
67
%
64
%
64
%
62
%
61
%
60
%
60
%
59
%
59
%
58
%
58
%
58
%
55
%
55
%
54
%
54
%
54
%
53
%
52
%
52
%
50
%
50
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49
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49
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49
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48
%
48
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47
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47
%
47
%
46
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46
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46
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45
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44
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44
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44
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43
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43
%
42
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41
%
40
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39
%
38
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38
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38
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36
%
35
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35
%
35
%
34
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34
%
33
%
33
%
33
%
32
%
32
%
32
%
32
%
31
%
31
%
31
%
31
%
30
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30
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30
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29
%
28
%
27
%
26
%
26
%
25
%
24
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24
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24
%
20
%
20
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20
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19
%
19
%
19
%
19
%
19
%
18
%
18
%
18
%
18
%
17
%
16
%
15
%
15
%
14
%
14
%
12
%
11
%
9%
8%
8%
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Est
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ia
30
4%304%
200%
150%
10 %
50%
0%
ป ฒ
ป ฒ ป
ป ฒ
ป ฒ
2. Japan
192%
6. Singapore
118%
8. Greece
108%
18. Germany
77%
22. England
69%
31. India
60%
56. Thailand
42%
89. Indonesia
30%
91. South Korea
28% 107. China
18%
108. Hong Kong
18%
42. America
53%
WORLD
54%
32. Philippines
59%
2009 est.
Source : CIA – The World Fact Book
1. Zimbabwe
304%
50. Malaysia
48%
% to GDP
Public Debt to GDP (by country)
2012
Development of Government Debt Securities
2011201020092008 2012-2013
30-year Benchmark Bond
10-yearInflation Linked Bond
12-year and 18-yearFixed-rate
Promissory Bond
50-year
Benchmark Bond
5-yearStep-up
Savings Bond
6-yearStep-up
Savings Bond
3-yearRetail Bond @ ATM
4-yearFloating Rate Bond
April 23nd 2008
FY
July 15th 2009
June 7th 2010
March 2nd 2011
December 22nd 2010
July 11th 2011
September 12th 2011
July 27th 2009
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
5
next 5 yrs year 6 - 10 10 yrs +
52%
20% 28%
next 5 yrs year 6 - 10 10 yrs +
61%
24% 15%
(1) ATM Lengthened(2) Cost Lowered(3) Well-Balanced Fixed-Float Ratio(4) Well-Distributed Maturity Profile
Well-Developed Bond Market Improved
GOV’T Direct Debt (1.87 THB Trillion.) Profile Dramatically
Fixed
90%
Fixed
82%
Float 18%Float 10%
ATM
5yrs 3mths
ATM
7yrs 5mths
Avg. cost
4.5%
As of Dec 2007 As of Dec 2011
Average-Time-to-Maturity
LENGTHENED by 2 yrs
Avg. Cost LOWERED by 10 bps .(While ATM Lengthened by 2 yrs)
Well-Balanced Fixed/Float Ratio(Target : Fixed/Float ratio = 80 : 20)
Well-Distributed Maturity Profile(Target : Maturing Debt in the next 5 yrs ≤ 50% of Total Debt)
Avg. cost
4.4%
Maturity Profile as of Dec 2009 Maturity Profile as of Dec 2011
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
What do we do @ PDMO?
PDMO manages the Nation’s Portfolio… 4,248,399,540,000baht (42% of GDP)
CFO ป
Research & Policy Planning Project Finance
Debt management (Gov’t)
Bond market development Settlement & forex
Debt management (SOEs)
IT personnel AuditLegalHR
Risk modeling / credit rating / loan negotiation
Benchmark bond / Asia Bond / Sovereign Fund Management
Financing & monitoring MEGA projects
Credit scoring / Yankee Bond / Samurai Bond Financial market monitoring & execution
Debt Prepayment Allocation
May 2011
ป 1 ใ (Pro-active Debt Management)
ป 3 ฒ ใ แ
แ ป
ป ป
8 4 5
1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 2.1 2.2 2.3 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4
1.2.1 1.1.1 แ
/GDP
1.3.1 1.4.1 ใ
/ ป
แ
1.2.2
1.2.3
1.2.4 แ แ
แ
1.3.2
BenchmarkBond
ฒ ใ
Floating Rate Bond
2.1.1 2.2.1 2.3.1
2.2.2
แ ฒ IT
PMQA ฒ
ฒ แ
3.1.1 3.2.1 3.3.1 3.4.1
แ ฒ ฎ
3.2.2
แ
ใ
แ
Benchmarkแ
ฒ
ป
ป
: ฒ
ป 2 ฒ ใ ป ใ ป แ แ
แ ป (แ ป ป ป 2554-2556
6
Career @ PDMO ! Last Resort
3 ฒ
7
Loan Market
Market maker Commercial banks Corporate/SOE Corporate/MOF/BOT/SOE
Market participants Borrowers/Savers Investors1 Investors2
Products Loans/Deposits/LC StockLoan Bond/Saving Bond/T-bill/ Promissory Note
Returns Interest rates Dividend/Capital Gain Coupons
Debt Market
Equity Market
Capital Market
3 3 Pillars of Financial Market System
Retail 53%Domestic Institution 22%Foreign Institution 25%
Retail 9%Domestic Institution 81%Foreign Institution 10%
1 - Yearly cumulative since 1 Jan 2012 – 17 Aug 2012
2 - As of July 2012
Capital market
Bond Market Development Bureau, PDMO
8
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
2012
(Ju
n)
Bank Loan /GDP Equity/GDP Bond Market / GDP
1997 Asian Financial Crisis The Rude AwakeningPublic Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
Asian Fin. Crisis
128%
24%
12%
90%
84%
% Share of GDP
8.2 THB Trillion10 August 2012
71%
Balanced
9
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
2012
(Jun
)
Bank Loan /GDP Equity/GDP Bond Market / GDP
< 1y 2-3y 3-5y 6-10y 11-50y
62%
33%
5%
14%
22%
17% 26% 21%
Thai Bond Market Has Grown Strongly for More Than a Decade
Asian Fin. Crisis
128%
24%
12%
90%
84%
71%
Baht Bond
Corp. Bond
SOE Bond
BOT Bond
GOVT Bond
1%
18%
7%
35%
39%
Domestic Bond Market Capitalisation = 8.2 THB TrillionAs of 10 Aug 2012 (Classified by Types of Issuers)
% Share of GDP
2.9 THB Trillion
3.2 THB Trillion
Maturity Profile
BOT vs GOVT Bond
BOT
MOF
BOT ATM = 1yr GOVT ATM = 6yrs 10mths
8.2 THB Trillion10 August 2012
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
10
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0
2
4
6
8
10
201
2 (
Au
g)
% o
f GD
P
71%
Post Crisis – 2000 : Volume Oriented Bond Market Capitalisation tripled Government Bonds
Outstanding grew by 50 times Government Bond Market
Share jumped from 3% in 1997to 44% in 2000
2007 – 2010 : Development Oriented Regular Benchmark Issuance New Product Development Regular Market Dialogue
with BoT and PDs
Pre-Crisis- Illiquid Bond Market- Absence of Benchmark Bond- Dominated by SoE’s Bonds
Next Step 2011-13:
(Market Deepening Oriented) 50-yr Bond, ILB, Electronic Retail Bond
Upgrade PD Privileges Regional Linkage (CGIF) Amortizing Promissory Note Bond Switching and Bond Consolidation
The Thai Bond Market has Developed Rapidly and EfficientlyThe Thai Bond Market Has Developed Rapidly and Efficiently TH
B T
rilli
on
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
11
• Allow both issuer and investors to manage and improve their portfolio
• Larger outstanding size + Less bond series more liquidity in the secondary market
• Suitable financing instrument for the government’s investment mega-project in the form of PPP • Pay back the bond principal by installments Promote the government’s fiscal discipline
FY2007 – FY2013 Innovation of GOV’T Debt SecuritiesFY
200
7-10
FY 2
011
• Broaden investor base – Retail investors• Low interest burden at the initial periods of bond
• Increase floating debt ratio (10% to 18%)• Promote BIBOR (Bangkok Interbank Offered Rate)
• Lengthen average-time-to-maturity ATM Government Debt Portfolio 5.7yrs to 6.1yrs• Meet long term investors’ demand
FY 2
012-
2013
PDDF(Public Debt Restructuring and Domestic Bond Market
Development Fund)Upgrade PD Privileges
Baht Bond
CGIF(Credit Guarantee and
Investment Facility)
Step-up Savings Bond
Floating Rate Bond
30-yr Loan Bond
• Lower Minimum Amount to Purchase• Offer throughout the year• Can be purchased via ATM, in addition of Bank Retail Branches
• Strong anti-inflationary signal• Deepen the Development of the Bond market
• 1st country in Emerging Asian Economies
• Combat low interest rate + Lengthen average time-to-maturity
• 4th country in the world (1st : UK 2nd : France 3rd : China)50-yr Loan Bond
Retail Bond @ ATM for Micro Savers
Inflation-Linked Bond (ILB)
• Broaden investor base – Insurance / Long-term investors• Non-Benchmark tenorsFixed Rate Promissory Note
Bond Switching & Consolidation
Amortizing Bond
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
12
Savings Bond ~100,000 THB Mil. (9%)
Promissory Note ~100,000 THB Mil. (9%)
Inflation-Linked Bond ~50,000 THB Mil. (4%)
Floating Rate Bond ~50,000 THB Mil. (4%)
Bank Loan ~200,000 THB Mi (18%)
Benchmark Bond ~600,000 THB Mil. (52%)
3
5
710
15
20
30
50
Total 1,150,000 THB Mil. (100%)
Fixed Rate Promissory Note ~50,000 THB Mil. (4%)
LB 3 yr 150,000 THB Mil.
LB 5 yr 120,000 THB Mil.
LB 7 yr 80,000 THB Mil.
LB 10 yr 80,000 THB Mil.
LB 15 yr 60,000 THB Mil.
LB 20 yr 60,000 THB Mil.
LB 30 yr 30,000 THB Mil.
LB 50 yr 20,000 THB Mil.
Full Capacity* of All Government Funding Instruments 1,150,000 THB Mil.
Benchmark Bond
* Under favorable market liquidity + using All funding instruments
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
($40 bil)
($5 bil.)
($3 bil.)
($4 bil.)
($2 bil.)
($2 bil.)
($1 bil.)
($0.8 bil.)
($3 bil.)
($20 bil.)
($1.5 bil.)
($3 bil.)
($1.2 bil.)
($40 bil.)
($3 bil.)
($1.5 bil.)
($7 bil.)
13
14
31
0,0
00
60
,00
0
17
0,0
00
28
1,0
00
26
1,1
71
30
9,8
26
13
1,0
00
82
,23
3
15
4,0
00
32
1,1
71
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
Benchmark Bond Non Benchmark Bond Savings Bond T-Bill (Outstanding) Others
Plan Actual
Benchmark Bond Non Benchmark Bond Savings Bond T-Bill (Outstanding) Others
Plan Actual
Keep Our Word to get Investor Confidence for the Plan
Firm Committed Supply of Benchmark BondRegardless of Budget uncertainty
Higher government
funding needs due to
Stimulus Package
approx.+250,000 THB Mil.
FY2009
Lower Borrowing needs
due to Economic Recovery
approx. -160,000 THB Mil.
FY2010
Total Funding needs
increased from:
420,000 THB Mil. to
670,000 THB Mil.
(+59%)
Total Funding needs
decreased from:
800,000 THB Mil to
640,000 THB Mil
(-20%)
THB Mil.
+2%+170%
+33%
+40%
+86%
+118%
-51%
-45%
0% +8%
Treasury Balance = 417,166 THB Mil.
Treasury Balance = 278,694 THB Mil.
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
THB Mil.
33
0,0
00
19
9,1
10
10
0,0
00
30
,00
0
60
,00
0
12
5,1
22
45
,00
0
40
0,0
00
34
5,7
51
11
0,8
50
10
5,7
82
64
,65
9
52
,18
0
12
0,2
31
88
,24
9
30
,03
0
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
BenchmarkBond
NonBenchmark
Bond
Savings Bond T-Bill(Outstanding)
ILB Float P/N Fixed P/N Bank Loan(Outstanding)
Plan Actual
34
9,5
00
95
,00
0
-
20
4,0
00
9,0
00
19
0,5
14
45
,00
0
17
7,7
70
33
9,9
00
70
,00
0
1,0
75
12
5,6
91
40
,00
0
54
,01
4
34
,60
0
14
9,1
10
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
BenchmarkBond
NonBenchmark
Bond
Savings Bond T-Bill(Outstanding)
ILB Float P/N Fixed P/N Bank Loan(Outstanding)
Plan Actual
Total Funding needs
decreased from:
700,000 THB Mil to
400,000 THB Mil
(- 36%)
Keep Our Word to get Investor Confidence for the Plan
Firm Committed Supply of Benchmark BondRegardless of Budget uncertainty
FY2011
FY2012
THB Mil.
+6%-44%
+5%
Treasury Balance = 542,144 THB Mil.
Treasury Balance = 510,180 THB Mil.
Bond Market Development Bureau, Public Debt Management Office
Higher than expected
Revenue collection
approx. -250,000 THB Mil.
THB Mil.
-3%
+344%-26%
-16%-38%
+116%
-72% -23%
-92%-4%
-13%+96%
390,000 THB Mil. Undrawn
Decree (Water + Insurance)
approx. -390,000 THB Mil.
Total Funding needs
decreased from:
1,140,000 THB Mil to
750,000 THB Mil
(-34%)
FY FY FY FY FY FY FY F
FY FY FY FY FY FY FY F
2550 ป ป ใ ใ แ 3 แ ,
I. Reduce Auction Frequency from Once a Week to Every Other Month(to Create Even Distribution of the Benchmark Bond Supply over the Year)
PDMO Revised the Strategy of Benchmark Bond Issuance in 3 ways (FY2007-FY2013)
III. Increase Outstanding Size
II. Increase Auction Size
40,000
4,000
Unit : THB Mil
Unit : THB Mil
50,000-80,000
12,000-15,000
Tenors: 3-5-7-10 yrs
Tenors: 3-5-7-10 yrs
80,000-100,000
100,000-120,000
100,000-120,000
120,000-150,000
150,000-200,000
6,000-8,000
8,000-10,000
10,000-12,000
15,000-20,000
15,000-20,000
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
LB
A
LB
B
LB
DA
LB
A
LB
A
LB
B
LB
DA
LB
OA
ILB
A
LB
A
LB
A
LB
NA
LB
A
LB
A
LB
A
LB
A
LB
A
LB
A
LB
DA
LB
A
LB
A
LB
DA
LB
A
LB
DA
LB
A
LB
A
LB
A
LB
A
LB
A
LB
A
LB
DA
LB
A
LB
NA
LB
A
LB
A
LB
A
LB
NA
LB
OA
LB
A
LB
A
LB
A
LB
A
LB
A
LB
DA
LB
A
LB
A
LB
A
Outstanding size (THB Mil.)
Top 5(>100,000)
Next 10(50,000-100,000)
TTM (Year)
3
10
20
5
307
10
15
LB155A
LB15DA
LB21DA
ILB217A
LB176A
LB416A
LB193A
LB616A
LB27DA
LB
16
5A
5
3 2 3 7 1 6 10 5 10 9 16 4 7 1 4
FRB
ILB
TOP 5 > 100,000 THB Mil in Size (45% of Trading Volume)
50
3
LB326A
FY2012 Total GOVT Bond = 45 Series(2,277,XXX THB Mil) Next 10 > 50,000 THB Mil in Size (28% of Trading Volume)
TOP 5
45%
Next 10 Bottom 30
28% 27%
FY-to-date Market Share of Trading Volume in Secondary Market (Oct 11-Apr 12)
0 50 100
FY 2012 on-the-run Benchmark Bond
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
15
2555
6 ป
80,000
3 % ป
3 – 14 2555 (2 )( 27 2555 )
3 – 4 55 (60 ป ) 2 (2,000 ) . 5 – 7 55 2 (2,000 ) . 8 – 14 55
1,000 (1 )
ATM 1,100 8,600 1,050 8,500 1,000 7,500 850 7,000 4,000 31,600
ใ ป ป 2555
16
104,000
135,736
PAR
100,000PAR
100,000 36,000
= 4% = 1% * *
* %
ป 1 – 9 ป 10 ป 1 – 9 ป 10
10,464
Structure of Thai Inflation Linked Bond (Inaugural ILB, July 2011)
Capital Indexed Bond (with Principle Protection)Format
Every 6 monthsInterest Payment
Thai BahtCurrency
40,000 THB Mil. (1.3 bil USD equiv.)Programme Size
10 yearsTenor
3 monthsIndexation Lag
Headline CPIIndex
1.2Real Yield
CPIt /CPI0 (TBMA’s calculation)Index Ratio
BulletRepayment Method
15,000 MB
5,000 MB
20,000 MB
LocalInstitutions
Local Retail
ForeignInstitutions
Allocations
Next Step Enhance ILB liquidity
Subscription : approx. 1.6 times
Continuing Issuance
PD’s responsibility
FY 2012 : Develop regular annual auction plan (every quarter)FY 2012 : Top-up the existing tenor to enhance liquidity : 60,000 THB Mil. (2 USD Bil equiv.)
(15,000 THB Mil. each in Feb Apr Jun and Aug)FY 2013 : Issue other Benchmark tenors (5-15years ILBs)
FY 2012 : Maintain portion of successful bid in ILB primary marketFY 2013 : Maintain portion of ILB trading in secondary marketFY 2013 : Provide firm bid / ask spreads in secondary market
Enhance Liquidity
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
Best Sovereign Bond 2011 : Asiamoney Awards
Best Thailand Deal 2011 : Asiamoney Awards Best Local Currency Bond 2011 : FinanceAsia Achievement Awards Best Thailand Deal 2011 : FinanceAsia Achievement Awards Thailand Capital Markets Deal of the Year 2011 : IFRAsia Asia Awards Deal of the Year from Asia : Euro Money
Outstanding Issuer of the Year : Asset Asian Awards 2011 The Most Impressive Local Currency 2011 : Euroweek Asia
Deal of the Year 2011 : ThaiBMAMost Creative Issue 2011 : ThaiBMA
8 International AWARDS
+2 Domestic
AWARDS17
18
Funding Instruments : Local Bond Market VS Foreign Bond Markets
FY 2012 Full Capacity* : 1,150,000 THB MilWell Diversified Investors Ensures Funding Needs
Potential Demandfor Gov’t Bond 2012
Outstanding of Foreign DebtEquiv. 41,000 THB Mil (1.4% of Gov’t Debt)
Commercial PapersSamurai bond 5 yr 20,000 Yen MilSamurai bond 7 yr 10,000 Yen MilMTN 40 USD Mil
Soft LoansJBIC 64,800 Yen MilIBRD 66 USD MilOther 19 USD Mil
Equiv. 13,000 THB Mil Equiv. 28,000 THB Mil
• To diversify portfolio of government debt
• To keep the presence of KOT Bond (Kingdom of Thailand) in the foreign market
• To maintain KOT Bond as a reference benchmark yield for Thai private sector issuers
• To avoid crowding out effect on domestic bond market
(as of Oct 2011) Concerns : exchange rate risk / swap cost / natural hedging
* Under favorable market liquidity + using All funding instruments
- Life Insurance - Pension Funds
SB
Bank loanFRB / LB
P/NLB
Depository Corporations
- Retail - Non-profit org.
Non-Residence
LB 5/10ILB
?
400
400
THB Bil.
200
Insurance and
Other Corporation
33%
DepositoryCorporation
35%
NR12%
CB 6%
Source : CB (30 January 2012)
15%Householdand
Non-profit
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
Savings Bond ~100,000 THB Mil. (9%)
Promissory Note ~100,000 THB Mil. (9%)
Inflation-Linked Bond ~50,000 THB Mil. (4%)
Floating Rate Bond ~50,000 THB Mil. (4%)
Bank Loan ~200,000 THB Mi (18%)
Benchmark Bond ~600,000 THB Mil. (52%)
3
5
710
15
20
30
50
Total 1,150,000 THB Mil. (100%)
Fixed Rate Promissory Note ~50,000 THB Mil. (4%)
LB 3 yr 150,000 THB Mil.
LB 5 yr 120,000 THB Mil.
LB 7 yr 80,000 THB Mil.
LB 10 yr 80,000 THB Mil.
LB 15 yr 60,000 THB Mil.
LB 20 yr 60,000 THB Mil.
LB 30 yr 30,000 THB Mil.
LB 50 yr 20,000 THB Mil.
Full Capacity* of All Government Funding Instruments 1,150,000 THB Mil.
Benchmark Bond
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
• 81 percent of Thailand’s debt securities were issued by Government, Central bank and State-owned EnterprisesIssuers
• 98 percent of Thailand’s debt securities are classified as Investment GradeCredit Rating
• Thailand’s government debt securities are held by a wide group of investor typesInvestors
Thailand Bond Market(Classified by Issuers)
Government Debt Securities (Classified by Types of Investors)
Thailand Bond Market(Classified by Credit Rating)
Central Bank
35%
Non-rated2%
BBB
1%A
7%AA
4%
AAA
4%
SOEs
7%
Government
39%
Insurance and
Other Corporation
32%
DepositoryCorporation
39%
Householdand
Non-profit
NR10%
CB 10%
Source : CB (30 June 2012)
Government
39%
Central Bank
35%
SOEs
7%
Private Sector
19%
Source : ThaiBMA (10 August 2012)
9%
Equilibrium of Thai Bond Market
Source : ThaiBMA (10 August 2012)
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
19
165,000
441,061
232,575 200,666
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
56,582
67,740
25,000 52,000
222,003
199,239
219,222 25,000
98,161
139,171 113,014
340,122 64,970
129,124
75,171
80,000
260,000
58,940
94,170
58,940
50,000
350,000
-
500,000
1,000,000
FIDF
FIDF
TKK
THB Mil.
AnnualFundingNeeds(THB Mil.)
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012F 2013 F 2014 F 2015 F
246,582 686,962 656,746 424,620 1,140,122* 536,973 622,533 453,333
Annual Funding Needs Will Always Be around 500,000 THB Mil.
As of May 2012
TENTATIVE
06/13
Water Decree
*Not Including Pre-Mature Debt Restructuring of 167,000 THB Mil. (TKK = 149,000 THB Mil. & FIDF = 18,000 THB Mil.)
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
DeficitDeficit Restructuring
FIDF RestructuringTKK TKK RestructuringWater Management Decree
Insurance Decree
June
Insurance Decree
20
Career @ PDMO ! Last Resort
! Last Resort
21
715
843
984 923
825 860
910
1,023 1,000
1,164
1,250
1,360
1,566
1,660
1,952
1,700
2,070
715
843
984923
800 750805 823 825
1,064
1,250
1,360
1,420
1,495 1,511
1,350
1,650
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2538
2539
2540
2541
2542
2543
2544
2545
2546
2547
2548
2549
2550
2551
2552
2553
2554
ป ป
: -
ป งปม. 2541 - 2546 ป งปม. 2547 - 2551 ป งปม. 2552 - 2554
คาเฉลย GDP Growth 2.2% 4.6% 1.9%
คาเฉลย รอยละงบขาดดลตองบประมาณรายจาย 10.7% 5.6% 21.2%
%
%
3%
%
Bond Market Development Bureau, PDMO
14%
12%
9%
8% 8% 8% 8%
11%
9%
11%
9%
-2%
-4%
-3%-3%
9%
17%
13%
-1,000,000
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
-6%
0%
6%
12%
18%
2006
-Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2007
-Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2008
-Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2009
-Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2010
-Q1
Q2
million baht% change (Q-on-Q)
Huge stimulus package resulted in 10-year high GDP growth despite
political turbulence
NESDB (23 Aug 2010) doubled its 2010 GDP growth forecast from 4% to 7% due to higher-than-expect export and investment
Military Coup
Rajprasong Incident
US financial Crisis
Songkran Incident
Bond Market Development Bureau, PDMO
Nominal GDP % growth (Q-on-Q) and GDP current price (million baht)
3
ป
: ,
ฒ
: . – 3
22
23
:
Thailand
World
Major Central Bank’s Policy Rate CUTS within 3 days
NZ 7.50%
CHI 6.93%
AU 6.00%
BOE 4.50%
ECB 3.75%
RP 3.75%
BOJ 0.5%
FED 1.50%
Source : compiled by KTC
?
-5
0
5
10
15
2008 2009 2010F 2011F
China India Hong kong Korea Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Vietnam Thailand
% change (Y-on-Y)
IMF foresees that Thailand will enjoy
strongest rebound among ASEAN–5 (excl China & India)
Hugh stimulus pays off
NESDB (23 Aug 2010) doubled its 2010 GDP growth forecast from 4% to 7% due to higher-than-expect export and investment
Bond Market Development Bureau, PDMO
7.8%
-2.3%
China
India
Real GDP (year on year percentage change)
Source : World Economic Outlook Database, IMF, 2010
0.1%
4%
19
2%
18
5%
15
6%
13
2%
11
8%
11
5%
10
8%
10
5%
99
%
95
%
87
%
83
%
80
%
80
%
78
%
78
%
77
%
75
%
72
%
70
%
69
%
68
%
67
%
67
%
64
%
64
%
62
%
61
%
60
%
60
%
59
%
59
%
58
%
58
%
58
%
55
%
55
%
54
%
54
%
54
%
53
%
52
%
52
%
50
%
50
%
49
%
49
%
49
%
48
%
48
%
47
%
47
%
47
%
46
%
46
%
46
%
45
%
44
%
44
%
44
%
43
%
43
%
42
%
41
%
40
%
39
%
38
%
38
%
38
%
36
%
35
%
35
%
35
%
34
%
34
%
33
%
33
%
33
%
32
%
32
%
32
%
32
%
31
%
31
%
31
%
31
%
30
%
30
%
30
%
29
%
28
%
27
%
26
%
26
%
25
%
24
%
24
%
24
%
20
%
20
%
20
%
19
%
19
%
19
%
19
%
19
%
18
%
18
%
18
%
18
%
17
%
16
%
15
%
15
%
14
%
14
%
12
%
11
%
9%
8%
8%
Zim
ba
bw
e
Jap
an
Sain
t K
itts
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d N
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ica
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ly
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ece
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an
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ara
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an
ka
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pt
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nce
Hu
nga
ry
Isra
el
Ge
rma
ny
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gal
Ca
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an
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ite
d K
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om
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an
a
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stri
a
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te d
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rie
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the
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nd
s
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ati
a
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rwa
y
Ind
ia
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illi
pp
ine
s
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gua
y
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uri
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s
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law
i
Bh
uta
n
El S
alv
ad
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Alb
an
ia
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nya
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rocc
o
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rld
Un
ite
d S
tate
s
Cyp
rus
Vie
tna
m
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in
Pa
na
ma
Co
sta
Ric
a
Arg
en
tin
a
Turk
ey
Ma
lays
ia
Po
lan
d
Un
ite
d A
rab
Em
ira
tes
Tun
isia
Bra
zil
Aru
ba
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ail
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kin
sta
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livi
a
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s
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zerl
an
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vin
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ep
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ew
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ch R
ep
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lic
Gu
ata
ma
la
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ia
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ced
on
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a
Eth
iop
ia
Za
mb
ia
Slo
ven
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Lith
un
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ia
Mo
ldo
va
Ba
hra
in
Uk
rain
e
Ind
on
esi
a
Ne
w Z
ea
lan
d
Ko
rea
, So
uth
Trin
ida
d a
nd
To
ba
go
Mo
zam
biq
ue
Pe
ru
Tan
zan
ia
Ho
nd
ura
s
Pa
ragu
ay
Sen
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Sau
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rab
ia
Ecu
do
r
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ma
nia
Ira
n
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ne
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la
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nd
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mib
ia
Au
stra
lia
Ch
ina
Ho
ng
Ko
ng
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tsw
an
a
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eri
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gola
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ralt
ar
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it
Est
on
ia
30
4%304%
200%
150%
10 %
50%
0%
ป ฒ
ป ฒ ป
ป ฒ
ป ฒ
2. Japan
192%
6. Singapore
118%
8. Greece
108%
18. Germany
77%
22. England
69%
31. India
60%
56. Thailand
42%
89. Indonesia
30%
91. South Korea
28% 107. China
18%
108. Hong Kong
18%
42. America
53%
WORLD
54%
32. Philippines
59%
2009 est.
Source : CIA – The World Fact Book
1. Zimbabwe
304%
50. Malaysia
48%
% to GDP
Public Debt to GDP (by country)
2012
/ / /
/
Sufficiency Economy Philosophy
Economy / Social / Environment / Culture
Balance / Ability to cope
Middle path
Moderation
Reasonableness Self - immunity
Knowledge condition expert, carefully, Carefulness
Moral/Ethical condition Honesty, integrity, Generosity, Harmlessness
Source : Dr. Sumet TantivejkulMember Secretary General Chaipattana FoundationEBA October 2006
Moderation
24
Career @ PDMO ! Last Resort
ฒ ใ แ แ ป
25
Research-Based AwardsAchievements
0
5
10
15
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
0
50
100
150
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
ป แ (LB) แ ILB ปแ
3
3
= 4% ** = 1%
= 0.03% = 34.3%
= 1% = 0.03% = 1-5%
ป ป ป
3
PAR
100
แ
ป
แ
ป –
95% 5%
Institutional Retail
,
ป 10 ป 10 ป 10
PAR
100PAR
100
25
54
25
55
25
56
25
57
25
58
25
59
25
60
25
61
25
62
25
63
25
64
25
65
25
66
25
67
25
68
25
69
25
70
25
71
25
72
25
73
25
74
25
75
25
76
25
77
25
78
25
79
25
80
25
81
25
82
25
83
25
84
25
54
25
55
25
56
25
57
25
58
25
59
25
60
25
61
25
62
25
63
25
64
25
65
25
66
25
67
25
68
25
69
25
70
25
71
25
72
25
73
25
74
25
75
25
76
25
77
25
78
25
79
25
80
25
81
25
82
25
83
25
84
2542 2543 2544 2545 2546 2547 2548 2549 2550 2551 2552 2553
2542 2543 2544 2545 2546 2547 2548 2549 2550 2551 2552 2553
ใ ป ป
38%
68%
(FIDF)
60,000 .
ป %
2542 25532554-58 2584
52%
2554-58
23%
2542 2553
120,000 . (FIDF)
2553
15% : แ ป FIDF
2584
7 2554
4 ป 11.00 – 13.00
Retail Bond - ATM: 1st time in Thailand
Inflation-Linked Bond: 1st country in ASEAN
PDMO Roadshow @ Universities
ใ ใ
ฒ ใ
PDD Fund w K-Asset, SCBAM n’ KTAM
ฒ แ
ป แ ป ป ใ ป ป
0
1
2
3
4
5
ป ใ
ใ ป ใ ใ
3 ใ
ป ใ
ป
ใ ป แ
ป ใ
3 ใ
แ ป แ ป
ป ใ ป ใ ป
3 ใ ป
3 ใ ใ
3 3 ป ใ
ใ
ป ใ
Asiamoney Award
• Best Sovereign Bond 2011
FinanceAsia Achievement Awards
• Best Local Currency Bond 2011
• Best Thailand Deal 2011
IFRAsia Asia Awards
• Thailand Capital Markets Deal of the Year 2011
Euro Money
• Deal of the year from Asia
ป แ แป Inflation Linked Bond : ILB)
5 Best Sovereign Bond 2011 Asiamoney Award Best Local Currency Bond 2011 FinanceAsia Achievement Awards Best Thailand Deal 2011 FinanceAsia Achievement Awards Thailand Capital Markets Deal of the Year 2011 IFRAsia Asia Awards Deal of the year from Asia Euro Money
Retail Bond @ ATM for Micro Savers)
Fact & Figures “ ”
: 3 : 3.75 : 1,000 : 1,000,000 : ( ) : : ATM : 29 – 9
PDMO Roadshow & PDMO Camp 2011
26
ป ป แ ฒ ใ ป ป
K-Asset SCBAM KTAM
ใ ใ ใ
36%
48%
61% 62% 61%
57%
52%51%
49%
43%
40%37%
45%43% 44%
46%48% 49% 49% 49% 48% 47%
45%
25
40
25
41
25
42
25
43
25
44
25
45
25
46
25
47
25
48
25
49
25
50
25
51
25
52
25
53
25
54
25
55
25
56
25
57
25
58
25
59
25
60
25
61
25
62
ใ 3 GDP ( แ
GDP
60%
40%
20%
0%
3,000,000
6,000,000
9,000,000
: ป … ป
ป 2544 2545 2546 2547 2552
GDP 65 60 55 50 60
16 16 16 15 15
N/A N/A N/A 25 25
1. ฎ 50%
- 20%
- 10%
- 20%
2. ฎ (IMF, FIDF3, TKK) :
3.
1. ใ ฎ 2.
2.
1.
3.
2553
(FIDF 1, FIDF 3, TKK)
ป ป
ป ป
0
5
10
15
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
0
50
100
150
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
ป แ (LB) แ ILB ปแ
3
3
= 4% ** = 1%
= 0.03% = 34.3%
= 1% = 0.03% = 1-5%
ป ป ป
3
PAR
100
แ
ป
แ
ป –
95% 5%
Institutional Retail
,
ป 10 ป 10 ป 10
PAR
100PAR
100
ฒ ใ
27
ฒ แ 3
PM: Performance Management
7 2554
4 ป 11.00 – 13.00
PM
PM 5 ใ 2553
แ
KPI แ
แ ใ
ป ฒ ใ ป ป
ป ป
KPI แ
ใ
98%
88%
50%
65%
70%
80%
90%
85%
91
3 19
76
1 34
1/53
2/53
ป แ ป ป ใ ป ป
0
1
2
3
4
5
ป ใ
ใ ป ใ ใ
3 ใ
ป ใ
ป
ใ ป แ
ป ใ
3 ใ
แ ป แ ป
ป ใ ป ใ ป
3 ใ ป
3 ใ ใ
3 3 ป ใ
ใ
ป ใ
ป ใ แ
28
29
- -
-
-
แ แ แ
E
mail A
ddre
ss : ………………………………………………………………………… …
……
1.
3.
-
- -
-
- -