2/2010 pakistan earthquake management

PAKISTAN EARTHQUAKE MANAGEMENTLieutenant General Nadeem Ahmed (Retd)

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ISBN: 978-1-921933-01-1

Published 2011.

ii Pakistan Earthquake Management 1

ABSTRACTOn 8 October 2005 at 0850 PST, Pakistan was struck by a huge earthquake measuring 7.6 on the Richter scale. This was, at the time, by far the worst natural disaster to have affected the country, creating massive destruction and loss of life. By the end of that fateful day over 600,000 houses had been either damaged or destroyed over an area of 30,000 square km across 9 Districts of Azad Jammu and Kashmir and the North West Frontier Province (now Khyber Pakhtunkhwa). The quake left 73,000 dead, more than 70,000 severely injured and approximately three million people without shelter. This presented the nation with one of the greatest challenges it had ever faced. It was a challenge not only for the people affected by the disaster but also for the Government who had to undertake such a mammoth task of providing relief, then making the transition towards reconstruction and rehabilitation in the affected areas. According to accounts of the various UN agencies, the affected areas were one of the most logistically challenging in the world. The scale of reconstruction required in such a difficult area had never been previously undertaken. As no model to follow existed, the government had to devise its own. The Federal Relief Commission for relief operations and, subsequently, the Earthquake Reconstruction and Rehabilitation Authority (ERRA) for reconstruction, were created to achieve these goals.

Key Words: Pakistan, 2005 earthquake, disaster management, ERRA

Lieutenant General Nadeem Ahmed (Retd)Lieutenant General Nadeem Ahmed (Retd) served as an Infantry Officer in the

Pakistan Army until his retirement in May 2010. During his 40-year career he held various command and staff positions as well as heading several national agencies. He has served as Director Military Operations and later as the Vice Chief of General Staff at Pakistan Army’s General Headquarters. General Nadeem has had the rare experience of handling both a natural disaster and a complex emergency through all phases. In 2005, as Chief Military Coordinator of the Federal Relief Commission, he coordinated, supervised and implemented the earthquake relief operations for both military and civil relief agencies, working closely with the United Nations, humanitarian agencies, and foreign militaries. As Deputy Chairman of the Pakistan Earthquake Reconstruction and Rehabilitation Authority (2005–2008), he was responsible for the entire early recovery, reconstruction and rehabilitation of the earthquake-affected region in collaboration with a wide range of stakeholders. In 2009 until May 2010, he served as Chairman of the Special Support Group established to assist the 3.2 million Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) affected by the complex emergency in the North West Frontier Province. He holds two Masters Degrees – one in War Studies from the National Defence University, Islamabad and one in Strategic Studies from the United States Army War College. In July 2010, he was awarded an Honorary Doctorate in Disaster Management by the University of Huddersfield in the UK.

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BACKGROUNDOn 8 October 2005 at 0850 PST, Pakistan was struck by a huge earthquake measuring 7.6 on the Richter scale. This was, at the time, by far the worst natural disaster to have affected the country, creating massive destruction and loss of life. By the end of that fateful day over 600,000 houses had been either damaged or destroyed over an area of 30,000 square km across 9 Districts of Azad Jammu and Kashmir and the North West Frontier Province (now Khyber Pakhtunkhwa).

The quake left 73,000 dead, more than 70,000 severely injured and approximately three million people

without shelter. This presented the nation with one of the greatest challenges it had ever faced. It was a

challenge not only for the people affected by the disaster but also for the Government who had to undertake

such a mammoth task of providing relief, then making the transition towards reconstruction and rehabilitation

in the affected areas. According to accounts of the various UN agencies, the affected areas were one of the

most logistically challenging in the world. The scale of reconstruction required in such a difficult area had

never been previously undertaken. As no model to follow existed, the government had to devise its own.

The Federal Relief Commission for relief operations and, subsequently, the Earthquake Reconstruction and

Rehabilitation Authority (ERRA) for reconstruction, were created to achieve these goals.

CHALLENGESExperience has shown that in disasters of this magnitude, relief effort suffers due to:

• The absence of a central management authority to provide strategic guidance and coordinate the entire relief effort.

• The incremental employment of resources due to inaccurate damage assessment that can leave a large segment of population, especially the vulnerable, out of the relief net.

• The chaotic law and order situation with cases of looting and arson that becomes accentuated due to dysfunctional civil administration; and, lastly,

• The insufficient and badly damaged logistic infrastructure needed to support such a huge relief effort.

2 Pakistan Earthquake Management 3

WAY FORWARD

Institutional ArrangementsThe first and foremost step is to create an institutional arrangement - a focal agency to spearhead the entire relief, recovery and reconstruction effort. The best outcome would be for the respective government to create this focal agency headed by a dedicated Minister with requisite staff. Alternatively, the United Nations could take the lead by appointing a Humanitarian Coordinator along with a team of experts. In no case should a foreign country, regardless of its role in relief, become involved in this role due to political sensitivities. The mandate of this Agency should be to immediately formulate a ‘National Action Plan’ to guide relief providers both in Government and non Government sectors, coordinate and monitor the work of all stakeholders and carry out liaison with both foreign and local agencies. It must forecast the assistance required in accordance with the need and on a regular basis to disseminate information for everyone to build a common operating picture. Based on this, relief providers can carve out a role for themselves in accordance with their core competence. An effort must also be made by the focal agency to practice the concept of ‘ joint and integrated logistics’ through centralized planning and decentralized implementation, to ensure judicious and equitable distribution of the relief effort.

Disaster Management Spectrum There should be a requirement to take a comprehensive look at the work that lies ahead rather. While in the ‘immediate’ we must continue with rescue and relief operations, focusing on trapped and wounded, provision of food, water and shelter, opening of roads and sanitation, and restoration of municipal services, we also have to start looking in the ‘short term’ towards sustaining the effected population, supplementing local response capacities and revive civil administration and essential services. In the ‘mid term’ we have to ensure continuous service delivery, stabilize the economic, governance, human security and social equity situation, while in the ‘long term’ undertake full-scale reconstruction and rehabilitation on a ‘Build Back Better’ basis. The most critical decision is when to call off relief operations and shift focus towards early recovery, and reconstruction and rehabilitation. There will be resistance to this decision by many relief providers for varying reasons. Therefore, it must be a well-deliberated and informed decision, giving sufficient absorption time to all the stakeholders to be able to complete all relevant activities before the closure of the relief activities. Residual relief activities for the socially disadvantaged or physically handicapped should continue for a longer period.


Damage and Need Assessment Almost every relief provider undertakes their own damage assessment mission and since there are far too many relief providers doing this, people are subjected to questions more than once. This raises their expectation levels and also clutters and distorts the data. There should be a requirement to do a comprehensive damage assessment by one or multilateral agencies under a common assessment methodology covering all requirements from relief to early recovery and reconstruction. The data should disaggregated by sex and also cater for the vulnerable. The World Bank, assisted by line departments of the government and some of the relief providers, could conduct this exercise. This damage and need assessment should then become the basis for the launch of a donors’ appeal to solicit support from donor countries and international organisations towards the reconstruction effort. It will also help in planning customised interventions during the relief phase.

Monetisation of Affected Areas To ease the financial burden and provide limited purchasing capacity to the affected population, immediate monetization through livelihood cash grants is extremely helpful. Also all the relief providers should be encouraged to inject cash in the local economy through ‘Cash for Work’ programs. In addition, they also need to be encouraged to purchase all possible relief items from the local or adjoining markets to save on transportation costs. Compensation for dead and injured needs to be announced immediately and distributed through a transparent mechanism. Once the damage assessment is completed, immediate release of the first tranche of the reconstruction grant to the affectees will help kick start the process of reconstruction.

Financial Management There are different ways that donor countries and organizations can channel their funds towards assisting the Government: either by way of allocating these funds to United Nations, International Organizations or Non Government Organizations; undertaking projects through their respective aid agencies such as USAID, JICA, CIDA, AusAID and others; or, providing budgetary support directly to the government. Though indirect support speeds up the reconstruction process, conversely it upsets market dynamics as International Organizations, Aid Agencies and Non Government Organizations tend to pay more money to the contractors and also spend a good percentage of their funds on their overheads. All projects should be designed, approved and undertaken as per their own processes, duly fast tracked to facilitate the task of rebuilding quickly. The focal agency in this case will also act as a clearinghouse for all projects to avoid confusion and to lay down guidance parameters. It must be helped by a reputable consulting firm with the requisite experience to undertake this task.


Involvement of all Stakeholders in Policy Planning and Critical Decision Making It is necessary that at the time of formulating policies or taking practical decisions, all stakeholders including Government Agencies, Multilateral and Bilateral Donors, International Agencies, International and local Non Government Organizations and Civil Society Organizations, be involved as it gives them a sense of ownership and trust in government and the process. It also encourages them to extend their full-fledged assistance to the affected country. Policies evolved through consensus have generally proved to be more effective and robust as all stakeholders contribute more equitably to make it succeed, rather than resenting every step without moving forward. It also creates a spirit of camaraderie, partnership, and equal stakes, thus ensuring willing support and ultimate success of the programs.

Develop Customised Procurement System, Financial Management Systems, Planning Systems and M&E Systems to Enhance Efficacy There may well be existing systems of procurement, planning, approvals, financial management and monitoring but these would be for doing routine and usual work. These processes tend to be time consuming. Reconstruction and rehabilitation is not ‘work as usual’. It is essentially a time critical activity, as millions of people are out there in the open anxiously waiting for their houses, schools, hospitals, water supply systems, roads and infrastructure to be rebuilt today. There is therefore, a requirement to simplify all the relevant rules and procedures, remain close to the government’s existing rules as possible, and develop an operational manual for all reconstruction and rehabilitation work. This operational manual should remain a dynamic document and must continue to be improved based on experiences. After achieving systems maturity it can then be validated and approved by the relevant department of the Government.

Capacity Building The reconstruction effort required will always find itself short of the requisite skilled manpower to do soil surveys, design, approvals, procurement of requisite materials and services and then to undertake large scale reconstruction of buildings and infrastructure. There is a need to maximize use of local skills, materials, techniques, resources and capacities, in the planning and execution of projects and programs, taking into account the need for affordable solutions. Along with local and national institutions, civil society needs to be encouraged and empowered to participate in the recovery process. There is also a need to mobilize private investment, both human and financial, by harnessing financial, technical and human contributions from companies and individuals – including the Diaspora living abroad - by providing incentives to participate in reconstruction. Additionally a large pool of people will need to be given skills training in disciplines including masonry, carpentry, electricity, plumbing and steel fixing to meet the huge demand of skilled workers.


Develop Structured Mechanisms to Share Information, Coordinate Activities and Share Best Practices In any massive reconstruction and rehabilitation exercise, many stakeholders become involved. They include Multilateral or Bilateral Donors, International Agencies, INGOs and NGOs, Federal Ministries, Provincial and District Government and various Line Departments. All look for central leadership and guidance from the Federal Government’s focal agency. Stakeholders need to remain abreast of all developments, know the common operating picture, response framework and be considered partners in the reconstruction activities. The focal agency must therefore create structures where the stakeholders are part of overall policy formulation process at the Federal level through a Strategic Leaders Forum. Core Groups should be formed for policy making related to a particular sector/cluster and Working Groups established within the districts to coordinate implementation. Such arrangements will facilitate coordination at the field level and also provide a forum to share best practices and provide feedback to the Core Group to refine and improve output.

Open and Transparent Systems Enhance Donor Confidence Experience shows that donors’ confidence is significantly enhanced once they find that the recipient government’s focal agency is efficient, with well-conceived and ably implemented policies, there is openness to listening to new ideas, and the whole system is transparent and accountable. Towards this end, a structured mechanism of coordination with donors, a deliberate internal and external audit system, supported by an efficient monitoring and evaluation system for impact assessment, and, finally, ‘international third Party validation’ will be extremely useful. Creation of a consultative forum comprising major donors and a Monitoring and Evaluation Advisory Committee, will enhance confidence in the whole system. This greatly encourages donors to provide additional support and funding should it be needed.

Prioritise Sectors in Accordance with the Need to Retain Right FocusThe newly raised focal agency will have to undertake work in approximately a dozen sectors for which there may not be enough human resources to start simultaneously on all sectoral programs. Therefore, priority must be given to programs in accordance with criticality. The first program recommended is a Livelihood Cash Grant program to facilitate the affected population to sustain themselves after their loss of livelihoods. The second would be Housing as people need shelter and cannot stay in tents for an indefinite period. The next programs to be developed would consist of Health, Education, Social Protection of Vulnerable Population and Water and Sanitation and, finally, Roads Infrastructure, Telecommunications, Government Sector Buildings and Power. Experience shows that it is beneficial to undertake reconstruction efforts following a three-tracked approach - that of ‘Government Funded’, ‘Donor Funded’ (IO’s, UN, WB, IMF etc),and ‘Sponsor Funded’ (NGO’s, Philanthropists), where the design, approval and monitoring is retained at focal agency level and physical implementation including design, consultancy and contractor selection, and construction is left to any of the three. This will help in timely completion of projects.


Owner Driven and Community Owned Approach is a Preferred Option Internationally, reconstruction has seen three different models adopted. Firstly, a ‘Government Driven’ approach where the government provides everything from financing to physical construction and rehabilitation. Secondly, a ‘Donor Driven’ approach where different donors undertake reconstruction and rehabilitation with the help of IOs, INGOs, NGOs or own aid agencies through directly funding them. In the third case, an ‘Owner Driven’ approach can be adopted where the government provides the financial subsidy, training and design options to the beneficiaries, and leaves physical construction to the house owners. This greatly helps the owners build customized houses in accordance with their own needs, ensures quality, and enhances local skills development and speedy construction. A comparison of the progress achieved between a Donor / Government Driven approach vis-à-vis an Owner Driven approach clearly favors the Owner Driven approach. Likewise, the focal agency must involve the communities in all construction activities be it WatSan schemes, Health or Education Infrastructure or Livelihood Programs (Skill Development, Community Livelihood Rehabilitation Plans (CLRPs) and Micro Credit Facilities). Involvement of communities helps evolve people-centered solutions, greater acceptability of programs, keeps the communities involved and ensures quality and speed of reconstruction.

Software Interventions are Equally Important We must never lose sight of the ultimate aim of the entire effort, which is to improve service delivery. Brick and mortar buildings are therefore not enough. Software intervention must be undertaken in all social sectors including Education, Health, Water and Sanitation and Social Protection of Vulnerable Population with a view to providing quality human resources through training them to run the newly constructed facilities efficiently and effectively. For example, providing psychosocial support to handle Post Trauma Syndrome victims through dedicated programs such as providing child and women friendly spaces and skill development centers were found to be extremely helpful in the earthquake affected areas.

Risk Reduction, Gender Balance and Environmental Safeguards should be Mainstreamed A careful analysis of the disaster reveals that damage to property and loss to lives could have been avoided if disaster risk reduction and environmental considerations were mainstreamed to ensure sustainable development. In order to ensure that all physical structures are seismically resistant, and communities are trained to be disaster resilient, the right moment to mainstream these issues is now. This includes risk mapping, land zoning, resource mapping, capacity building, training of communities, school safety programs, creation of relief store warehouses at appropriate locations and appropriate building codes. Likewise, for every major project it will be beneficial to carry out an Environment Impact Assessment (EIA) or the Initial Environmental Evaluation (IEE) prior to undertaking the project to avoid environmental degradation. Since a good percentage of the population consists of women and girls, it is extremely important that all benefits of reconstruction accrue equally to both men and women, be it safeguarding their rights such as housing and livelihood cash grants, ensuring equal opportunities in skill development and availability of micro credit grants, or empowering them to be part of the decision making process as in village Reconstruction Committees. All these steps will ensure long-term sustainability of the projects and programs.


Alternative Fast Construction Technologies be Encouraged Right from the Outset For a speedy reconstruction phase it is essential to start evaluating fast construction technologies from the beginning. Though this will have a maturation time for the local industry to absorb, once fully assimilated and human resources are trained, it will drastically cut the overall reconstruction time.

Decentralised Grievance Redress System In disaster areas people do not have access to the legal departments and courts, and, likewise, the courts do not have the capacity to handle such huge number of cases. The focal agency will therefore have to develop a very localized and decentralized grievance redress system for quick dispensation of justice to the affected population by involving the representatives of District Administration, Principals of local educational institutions and the local elders of that area. This will assist in bringing the left-out affectees into the beneficiary net.

A Well Thought Out Pro-active Communication Strategy It is essential to evolve a well thought out pro-active communication strategy involving all stakeholders from the outset to avoid misperceptions and unduly raise peoples’ expectations. This can be done through an information campaign using print and electronic media, regular briefings to all stakeholders including media and parliamentarians, and by arranging visits of international and national media and representative of donor organizations/countries to the affected areas.

Don’t Shy away from Taking New Initiatives While a particular school of thought may consider it to be ‘mission creep’, all opportunities to add value to the reconstruction and rehabilitation must be seized. Likewise initiatives that could benefit communities must be taken. A few examples - Rain Water Harvesting, Disaster Risk Reduction, Vulnerability Survey, Establishment of Legal Aid Centers to help specially the vulnerable population, Rural Landless Program, Full Spectrum Rehabilitation of Persons with Disabilities, Special focus on under developed areas, establishment of Social Welfare Complexes and Women Development Centres.

Early Recovery and Reconstruction Effort to be Planned Simultaneously Although reconstruction is a long term process and may take three to five years, early recovery provides for an interim solution in the midterm spanning over six to eighteen months. Since both these programs run concurrently, there is every possibility of duplication and confusion with regard to site selection of early recovery structures. It is of the utmost importance to have very close coordination in planning and execution of early recovery and the reconstruction effort. It ensures seamless transition from early recovery to reconstruction compliments the reconstruction efforts and ensures that resources are optimally utilized by making early recovery structures wherever it is necessary. For example schools or hospitals that are constructed in the last year of the reconstruction plan may have an early recovery structure but the schools or hospitals which are being reconstructed in first year may not require a proper early recovery structure.


Undue Political Influence Needs to be Checked During the process of reconstruction and rehabilitation, it is often seen that political influence often undermines an equitable distribution of resources in a transparent and principled manner. In order to check misuse of political clout, especially by vested political interests, it is better that, based on the damage and need assessment, the entire reconstruction plan is conceived in the beginning as one entity, resources allocated on a yearly basis, approval of the highest authority obtained and, finally, a strategy document published. This document should then become a sacrosanct document that cannot be modified or altered without prior clearance of the highest authority itself. These guard against any undue political interference. The principle of prioritizing the projects and schemes should be based on the accessibility of the area, the number of beneficiary population, hazard-free sites and equitable allocation of resources to all affected districts.

Relief and Early Recovery - Whose agenda is it Anyway? It is evident from our disaster experience that relief and early recovery is the UN agenda whereas large multilateral donors like the World Bank and Asian Development Bank tend to take a back seat and are mostly interested in the reconstruction phase. This disconnect between the two important players affects the two phases of disaster response due to their dependence on each other. The involvement of multilaterals from the first phase of response will add value to whole exercise and bring about sustainability in the operations.

Data Management The essence of data management is to be able to identify and arrest the problem in time. In the early period of response, problems are not easily detectable but solvable. Later, problems are easily detectable but not solvable. The experience shows that the focal agency will be flooded with all kinds of data from various sources and unless all the streams are tapped and brought into a system, all the data collected will not add value to the response. For example, there is a clear linkage between the physical progress of a project on the ground and financial disbursement against the project. If the physical progress data is linked with the financial data it helps in making informed decisions and reduces reliance on anecdotal evidence for decision-making. Feeding all the data into a central repository will ensure the compiled data is transferred to all and the generation of need-based reports which are vital for tracking the progress of all the activities. As such the Information Clearing House (INFOCH) established in ERRA allowed donors to identify gaps and plan their activities accordingly.

Sunset Clause ERRA was established as a time and event specific organization with limited scope and mandate which could either come to an end after the expiry of its term or could be subsumed in any other organization. Regardless, it was important to have a sunset clause for ERRA so that all the work done and knowledge accumulated could be transferred to others. The identification of the succeeding organization from the beginning helps in a smooth transition from one organization to another through institutional linkages and overlap between the two organisations for some period of time.


Civil-Military and Military to Military Cooperation The role of national and international militaries is well established in disaster response due to the comparative advantage militaries have in areas including logistics, human resources and mobilization time. Pakistan had huge cooperation from foreign militaries deployed by their respective governments to augment the available response resources within the country to respond to the earthquake relief efforts. The humanitarian community at times feels uncomfortable working with militaries but wherever they chose to work together in the earthquake areas it brought about complementarity in the operations and expeditious delivery on the ground. Establishing good civil-military coordination mechanisms and liaison processes enhances a more effective and cohesive response.

Donor Coordination Donors, immaterial of their size, are looking for stronger coordination with the government and to be led by a focal agency. The lead government agency has to put in place adequate coordination mechanisms so that all the donors and partners can be heard in order to achieve a cohesive effort. Formation of a dedicated donor coordination cell and G-7 forum at ERRA helped in facilitating coordination among the donors as well as between the donors and the government. Within the G7 forum, major donors agreed to let each other lead a particular sector based on their expertise, and to interact with the government in matters relating to those sectors. For example, the World Bank was asked to lead the rural housing sector and all other donors assisted and supported the World Bank in its dealing with the government. This also helped the government as it then only had to deal with one big donor for a particular sector.

Civil Society Support It normally manifests in two ways: a horde of volunteers wanting to help; and, secondly, providing emergency sustenance support by way of food, shelter, medical assistance etc. While this can be a valuable contribution, the problem arises when they do not find a structured mechanism through which they can provide this assistance to ensure it is properly directed and ‘captured’ to avoid duplication. In this regard, the nodal agency must develop proper guidelines and through its communication strategy, make known what kind of assistance is required and where. The District authorities must take it forward from there and ensure that the assistance is not only captured in their databases but also directed to the place where it is needed most. All volunteers must come logistically self-sufficient so as not to cause a burden on the district administration. They must be able to work in line with their competence be it in camp management, health clinics, logistical hubs, bolstering convoys/helipad security, distribution of relief goods and other activities.


CONCLUSIONThese guidelines are by no means the last word and, as the focal agency proceeds, with its task, new lessons will be learned. However, these provide a starting point for any organization to kick-start the process. These have been distilled through a very exhaustive, deliberate and intensive experience of managing disasters and should be able to prove their efficacy in handling major disasters.