2017 b.e.s.t. fantasy football draft...

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2017 B.E.S.T. Fantasy Football Draft Guide

By: Nick Guarisco Fantasy football is stupid. We play a game where players like Bilal Powell, Danny Woodhead, and Golden Tate are all somehow seen as MORE VALUABLE than Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady – the NFL’s best and most important players in reality. Most of you who are taking the time to read this know that the reason Powell, Woodhead, and Tate are typically selected after Brady and Rodgers in fantasy drafts is a matter of supply and demand. As fantasy experts throughout the industry will explain: drafting Rodgers or Brady in Round 1 is a rookie move. They’ll tell you it’s a smarter strategy to spend early draft picks on more valuable and scarcer positions like running back or wide receiver because the advantage of having an elite QB is not nearly as important as having quality depth at RB and WR. And

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because there are PLENTY of quarterbacks who put up quality numbers, experts advise you to wait before addressing the position. Now stop reading and take a moment to think about what you just read. If you’re a seasoned fantasy football veteran, this line of thinking probably seems totally normal to you. Should it, though? Imagine telling an NFL GM that you would rather focus on acquiring your second and third running back instead of Drew Brees in round 4. Think about the perplexed look on his face when you tell him that you can find quality quarterbacks later in the draft or even in free agency. That there’s a surplus of good QBs in the league, so the position doesn’t really matter that much. There comes a time where you have to put things in perspective. That perspective comes quickly for anyone who has ever tried to explain fantasy football strategy to someone who has never played before. Try explaining to an NFL fan that Bilal Powell, Danny Woodhead, and Golden Tate are MORE VALUABLE ASSETS THAN AARON RODGERS, TOM BRADY, AND DREW BREES. Their most likely response is to think this game was STUPID and makes ZERO sense. And they would be right. Mainstream fantasy football roster constructions are currently lagging behind the times. Essentially, as real football has become more dependent on strong QB play – quarterback is without a doubt the most important position in all of sports – running backs have become devalued to role players who split the workload and are dependent on the system. But this has had the EXACT OPPOSITE EFFECT in fantasy football. The mass-pass hysteria has created so many good statistical QBs that they are now a lot LESS valuable in fantasy football, even though they’ve never been more valuable in REALITY. While most everyone in your fantasy league has a backup QB who throws for 4,000 yards and 25 TDs riding their bench all year because they can only start 1 QB, we’re usually HOPING our 2nd or 3rd RB, who plays fewer than 50% of snaps on his own team, but who we have to start, is going to get 10 touches in his game. It’s idiotic nowadays. Fantasy football is about statistics, so it’s curious why in a league with so few bell cow RBs, where 62% of plays are pass plays, and over 80% of total yardage coming through the air, and at least 20 QBs putting up very respectable passing stats each year, that this game nevertheless continues to require you to start 2 or 3 RBs, and only 1 QB. Simply put, based on the way the NFL is played today… it doesn’t make sense!

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I mean come on, early Average Draft Positions in expert leagues have dudes like Samaje Perine (who?) going AHEAD of top-15 real-life QBs like Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Carson Palmer, Philip Rivers, etc… simply because your 4th string RB is clearly more important in this game than your backup, or sometimes even your starting QB. It sounds so ridiculous when you say it out loud. It’s time to stop sitting back and accepting this as normal. While the NFL has evolved, fantasy football has de-volved (*probably not a word) to even worse than the dinosaur ages. At some point, you have to stop answering “this is way it’s always been done” and start asking WHY? What’s wrong with the game? And how can we make it better?

SUPER FLEX IS THE ANSWER Last year I tested out my version of what has been tabbed by industry experts as “Super Flex” leagues. That is, I added a Super Flex position (aka “Offensive Player”) to the starting lineup, where you can play any offensive position in, INCLUDING A SECOND QB. My starting lineup now looks like this: QB RB RB WR WR FLEX SUPER FLEX (OP) TE K DST There are several excellent reasons to convert your league to a Super Flex league. First, because the Super Flex allows for much more lineup FLEXIBILITY and CREATIVITY. If you’ve already selected Tom Brady, and you’re in round 6 and you hate the best available RBs/WRs on the board, you can take Cam Newton if he would be your Best Player Available. Second, now for your second flex spot, you have to choose between a QB, WR, or RB. This can make lineup decisions more CHALLENGING, or it can help people out of a bind if they

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have a rough BYE week situation or injuries to their skilled positions. This makes lineup decisions and coaching calls more difficult and more crucial. Third, Super Flex can make the draft more INTERESTING AND UNPREDICTABLE. League members aren’t constrained in the draft to oblige by one archaic strategy that everyone is robotically following. Roster Flexibility is key. Fourth, QBs are more fun to watch and evaluate than most WRs/RBs. Everyone knows them and focuses on them because of their value in the real game, so there’s a certain increase in the level of entertainment you get out of the game expanding the league to possibly starting 2 QBs or having your opponent start 2 against you. In other words, it’s more fun to watch Tyrod Taylor or Carson Wentz play and score meaningful points than a 2nd flex option of Danny Woodhead or Marvin Jones. What are the drawbacks of Super Flex lineups? There are two criticisms.

1) Everyone would want to use a second Quarterback in the Super Flex spot because QBs score the most points. This makes them too valuable.

MY SOLUTION: Keep the Super Flex, but Lower your QB scoring. The goal, in my opinion, should be to raise the value of QBs generally because they are devalued, but not to the point where it completely changes the dynamic of your league. Therefore, if you do NOT want to make the league a “2-QB league” by default, I WOULD LOWER QUARTERBACK SCORING SIGNIFICANTLY so it aligns with the values of RB/WR scoring. Because the values are even, you want your league members have the legitimate OPTION of playing a second QB in that Super Flex spot, or playing a RB/WR/TE there if your depth/matchups at those spots are better. For example, lower your Passing TDs to a value of 3-4 points, and your Passing Yardage to 1-1.5 points for every 50 yards passing. You can mess with a variety of combinations to get the point values for each position to the point where you think they are fairest. Personally, I think the ideal scoring system would have the scoring totals of QBs, RBs, and WRs, near even, maybe with QBs scoring slightly more (note that there will still be a greater demand for RBs/WRs in drafts because of positional scarcity and because you’re forced to use a RB/WR in the other Flex). In my scoring (a non-PPR system with bonuses and lowered QB scoring), the QB12 last year had 200 points, the RB12 scored 185 points, and the WR12 scored 191 points. This more

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evenly distributed weight on each position, which will enable roster flexibility and draft creativity (more on this in a moment)…

2) The other main criticism of Super Flex leagues is that there aren’t enough starting QBs – in other words, if everyone in a 12-team league drafts 3 QBs now (1 starter, 1 possible flex starter, and 1 backup), then it adds up to 36 QBs… yet there are only 32 starting QBs in the NFL. The Math doesn’t seem to add up…

MY SOLUTION: To eliminate that legitimate concern, I would place a ROSTER LIMIT OF TWO HEALTHY QUARTERBACKS PER TEAM. This means that teams cannot have more than 2 QBs on their active roster at one point unless one of their starters is placed in the I.R. spot first, in which case they can add a third QB temporarily until the QB on I.R. is active again.

With this roster limit of 2 healthy QBs per team, in 12-team leagues there will ALWAYS be about 8 starting QBs in free agency at all times, alleviating any concern of not having enough QBs per team. Plus, this is not a 2-QB league. This is a Super Flex league. Even if there were no starting QBs in free agency, you still have the option of playing a RB/WR/TE in the Super Flex spot. … IN CONCLUSION, Fantasy Football needs to catch up with the times. It’s a pass-first league, and QBs should be more valuable. As a result, Super Flex is what the fantasy football industry is rightfully trending toward. Super Flexes will be commonplace / default settings among the mainstream sites in fewer than 5 years. If you’re serious about fantasy football like I am, you want to be ahead of the curve, not slow to adapt, and you want the best experience possible. Super Flex leagues are both. I strongly recommend trying out a Super Flex league (with lowered QB scoring). Either way, I hope I have convinced most of you to at least be somewhat excited, intrigued, and interested to try out some version of Super Flex. If not, I would nevertheless be quite surprised if you felt the same way after trying it, as even those who voted against it in my other leagues last year ended up LOVING it. Super Flex with lowered QB scoring is the way Fantasy Football should be played now. PLEASE DO NOT HESITATE to ask me questions if you are thinking about trying it out in your league but are curious about settings or need help with scoring. I’m happy to answer.

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Show off your Flex Appeal, and encourage your league commissioner to switch to a Super Flex format with lowered QB scoring this year!

Your Playoff System Stinks! Implement the “G9” Playoff System:

The purpose of the playoffs should be to reward one of the best teams in the regular season that also finishes strongly in the playoffs. But so many people struggle to come up with the best way to accomplish this, as one-week individual matchups are too luck-driven and often driven by seeding, BYE weeks are too important and don’t always go to the best teams, and there’s always that pesky little question of what to do with Week 17… The bottom line is that most playoff systems suck, and after thousands of complaints, ESPN finally realized this a few seasons ago when they changed their default system to two 2-week matchups that take place from Weeks 13-16. While this format is certainly an improvement over the prior single elimination tournament, it still has its flaws. Whether you’re a commissioner who has ever been yelled at because your playoff system is whack, an annual playoff contender who never seems to take home the trophy, or a regular old league member who is open to new playoff system ideas… The G9 Playoff System is worth considering: WHEN: Weeks 15-17 (the playoffs last three weeks) ENTRY: The top-4 teams in the standings at the end of the Week 14 automatically make the playoffs. A 5TH TEAM WILDCARD can clinch a playoff berth if they achieve BOTH of these qualifications: The 5th Team Wildcard must have a record at or above .500 (7-7 or better), AND The 5th Team Wildcard must have more points than at least two of the playoff teams. If no other teams after the top-4 have met both of these requirements, the playoffs will proceed with four teams. HOW THE G9 PLAYOFF SYSTEM WORKS: Each team presumably goes into the playoffs at 0-0. There are no individual matchups between two teams in the playoffs. Every playoff team plays every playoff team each week (weeks 15, 16, and 17). So if four teams make the playoffs, every team would accumulate three results (wins or losses) for each of the three weeks in the playoffs. The team with the best overall record in the playoffs will be declared the league champion. Perhaps this is better explained with a demonstration:

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If one team outscores the other three playoff teams in week 15, that team would go 3-0 for that week. If they outscored only one team, they would be 1-2, and so on. A coach’s overall win/loss record throughout the playoffs is compiled for weeks 15, 16 and 17. By the end of the three weeks, each team should have a total of 9 games played. The team with the best overall playoff record will be declared the winner. TIE-BREAKERS IN THE PLAYOFFS: If there is a tie in the 9-game standings (if two teams finish 5-4, for instance) the tie-breaker goes to the team with the most total points in regular season PLUS playoffs. This tie-breaking procedure rewards teams for good seasons. Think of this as the “home-field advantage” for the better team throughout the season. G9 rewards the best teams all year (determined by total points and not schedule-based head-to-head record) by providing them a “home field advantage” of sorts in the playoffs if two teams are finish evenly in the playoffs. It’s a perfect medium between regular seeding with no BYE week for the top teams (which isn’t an advantage at all, really) and giving the top 2 teams a BYE week, which is TOO much of an advantage. G9 also reduces the impact of Week 17 “sit-outs,” while not eliminating them. We don’t want to overhaul the entire system or eliminate a week of football (we only get 17 of them every year!) solely because of the possibility exists that 2-3 players MIGHT rest in week 17. Plus, we are forced to deal with variables every week; that’s the nature of fantasy football. G9 keeps Week 17 relevant because it’s still a legitimate and meaningful week of the NFL season, but because there are 9 mini-games that result from Weeks 15-17, the concern and impact of “getting screwed” by your star player who rests in Week 17 are minimized. I created the G9 Playoff System 11 years ago and applied it to every league I’ve commissioned since, and I have NEVER gotten a single (NOT ONE) complaint about the system. Everyone loves it. You will too. Again, encourage your Commish to adopt the G9 Playoff System! Don’t hesitate to contact me if you have any questions about it or need help implementing it!

General Philosophy & Draft Strategy Notes:

1. It doesn’t matter WHEN you pick certain players; it matters WHO you pick. a. Player ranks are overrated. In the end, your draft is made up of Hits and

Misses. Half the picks in every round will be misses. Misses are cut replaced by free agents.

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b. Perceived “value” of certain players is based on rankings that end up being completely inaccurate anyway.

c. Don’t be afraid to “reach” for players you like. As long as that player hits, it doesn’t matter how high you selected him.

2. Any draft strategy works if you select the right players. 3. Safety First – How to spend early round picks:

a. RBs on winning teams and/or with good QBs b. WRs with good QBs c. Rule of Thumb: With premium picks, steer away from poor QB play. So many

early picks are ruined by a bad situation. 4. Risk Later – go for gold in later rounds. 5. Schedules are a piece of the puzzle, if used correctly, more important for RBs/DSTs

than QBs and WRs. 6. Players who finished strong last season tend to carry over production to this season. 7. Discourage drafting players coming off significant knee injuries.

a. Usually the NEXT year is the time to pounce, when regained 100% explosiveness and ADP is low.

8. Discourage spending early picks on free agents who just signed $$$ deal with new team.

a. Usually the NEXT year is the time to pounce, after a year of learning new offense, timing down, when expectations are lower, and motivation to rebound is higher.

9. Discourage spending early picks on players who missed large portion of offseason due to injury / holdout

a. Not as focused, more likely to be out shape, get injured, lack timing/rhythm w/ QB.

10. Encourage taking advantage of injury-prone stigmas. Injury-prone labels = possible discount value.

11. Discourage “filling out” RB/WR position early in drafts. a. For example, drafting WR-WR-WR to open pigeon holes your board.

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Small Board

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Quarterbacks: Aaron Rodgers Tom Brady** -- Russell Wilson** -- Cam Newton -- Ben Roethlisberger Dak Prescott Jameis Winston Marcus Mariota* -- Eli Manning* Carson Palmer* -- Sam Bradford Running Backs: Le’Veon Bell* David Johnson -- LeSean McCoy* Jay Ajayi* Melvin Gordon Ezekiel Elliot* -- Marshawn Lynch Isaiah Crowell Dalvin Cook** --

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Joe Mixon* -- Adrian Peterson Doug Martin** Ameer Abdullah Paul Perkins -- Derrick Henry** Kareem Hunt** -- Rex Burkhead** Thomas Rawls* Alvin Kamara* (PPR only) -- Jamaal Williams* Wide Receivers: Julio Jones* Antonio Brown Odell Beckham Michael Thomas* -- Jordy Nelson A.J. Green Dez Bryant* Amari Cooper Doug Baldwin** -- Brandin Cooks Keenan Allen Terrelle Pryor -- Stefon Diggs*** Kelvin Benjamin* -- Martavis Bryant Tyreek Hill -- DeVante Parker** Corey Davis -- Cole Beasley (PPR only) --


Paul Richardson Tight Ends: Rob Gronkowski -- Travis Kelce* -- Jordan Reed* Jimmy Graham* -- Zach Ertz Tyler Eifert -- Austin Hooper* Coby Fleener* Kickers: Stephen Gostkowski** -- Will Lutz Defenses: Seattle Seahawks* -- New England Patriots* -- Jacksonville Jaguars* -- Pittsburgh Steelers*** *** = Number of Asterisks indicates how many teams I’ve drafted this player on so far. I still have two drafts left and will keep this updated throughout the draft process.


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Round-By-Round Targets (PPR)

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ROUND ONE (1-12+) 1 Le’Veon Bell 2 David Johnson 5 Julio Jones 3 Antonio Brown 4 Odell Beckham 11 Michael Thomas 7 LeSean McCoy 16 Jay Ajayi 12 Melvin Gordon ROUND TWO (13-24+) 9 A.J. Green 8 Jordy Nelson 19 Rob Gronkowski 18 Dez Bryant 20 Amari Cooper 17 Doug Baldwin 29 Ezekiel Elliot ROUND THREE (25-36+) 49 Travis Kelce 42 Aaron Rodgers 43 Tom Brady 26 Brandin Cooks 31 Marshawn Lynch 28 Isaiah Crowell 33 Keenan Allen 30 Terrelle Pryor ROUND FOUR (37-48+) 50 Dalvin Cook 38 Jordan Reed 51 Joe Mixon ROUND FIVE (49-60+) QB6 Russell Wilson 60 Stefon Diggs 57 Kelvin Benjamin ROUND SIX (61-72+) 77 Jimmy Graham (TE8) 63 Martavis Bryant 59 Tyreek Hill ROUND SEVEN (73-84+) QB7 Cam Newton 94 DeVante Parker


73 Adrian Peterson 70 Ameer Abdullah 104 Doug Martin ROUND EIGHT (85-96+) 100 Kareem Hunt 124 Derrick Henry 91 Tyler Eifert 109 Zach Ertz ROUND NINE & TEN (97-120+) QB11 Dak Prescott QB14 Ben Roethlisberger QB9 Jameis Winston QB12 Marcus Mariota

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Rounds 11-17

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ROUND ELEVEN (121+) 147 Stephen Gostkowski K3 DST2 Seattle Seahawks

Why Stephen Gostkowski is a Kicker worth reaching for this year…

Never have I ever advocated for drafting a kicker earlier than the last two

rounds of your draft. This year, however, I believe Stephen Gostkowski is an exception to the rule to wait on kickers.

Kickers tend to be a total crapshoot on a week-to-week basis, but there are two things I’m looking for in a kicker to ensure consistency:

1. You want kickers that play on a good offense with a good quarterback. The logic here is simple: regardless of whether its extra points or field goals, kickers need the OPPORTUNITY to score points in order to do so, and good offenses with good quarterbacks tend to lead to more kicking opportunities. This isn’t to say that every great QB will yield good numbers for his kicker. But most Top-12 Kickers at season’s end are on team’s with at quarterbacks who at are at least solid. For example, QBs who supported last season’s Top-12 Kickers included Matt Ryan, Andrew Luck, Kirk Cousins, Drew Brees, Matt Stafford, Cam Newton, Dak Prescott, Derek Carr, and Tom


Brady. There are a few exceptions every season (the three exceptions in 2016 were Joe Flacco, Carson Wentz, and Brock Osweiler’ kickers), but for the most part the Top-12 kickers are made up of good QBs who can support plenty of opportunities for scoring.

2. You want kickers that play on winning teams. Again, this comes down to opportunity. A negative game script (when your kicker’s team is losing) can limit his scoring opportunities in the second halves of games. Think about it: when your team is losing, they may be forced to score touchdowns instead of settle for field goals. Losing teams will bypass kicking chances by going for it on 4th down in order to make up a deficit on the scoreboard. And when a team that is losing does score a touchdown, they might be forced to go for two instead of kicking the extra point. On the other foot, teams that are winning do not have this problem. Teams that are winning are happy with “taking the points” and settling for field goals. This may seem obvious, but teams that win their games typically had more opportunities to kick, which is the only way kickers can score points. Last season, ZERO of the Top-12 Kickers played on a team that finished worse than 7-9, and 9 of the Top-12 kickers played on teams that finished 8-8 or better. This is both a season-long AND a weekly philosophy. The rule of thumb here is that you are streaming kickers, you should never start a kicker in a game his team is expected to lose. So channel your inner Mike Singletary and remember: “I WANT WINNERS!”

With those 2 kicking guidelines in mind, you may begin to see why Stephen Gostkowski may be valuable. Gostkowski’s kicking opportunities are supported by Tom Brady in an offense that gets Rob Gronkowski back healthy and just added Brandin Cooks. Simply put, the Pats stand to score A LOT of points this year. Furthermore, the Patriots have a legitimate chance to undefeated this season, which would make negative game scripts a rarity, making Gostkowski a safe bet for points each week, regardless of opponent.

Ok, but the Patriots are always good on offense, and they always win. So why go Gost THIS year? Excellent question, readers in my imagination.

The answer is because Gostkowski is cheaper this year. You see, prior to last season, Gostkowski had finished as THE NUMBER ONE KICKER FOUR YEARS IN A ROW.

But because Gostkowski is coming off a fluky down season in which he started slow, due in part to Brady’s suspension, he’s not even ranked as the #1 kicker on ESPN this year. He’s ranked as the #3 kicker. Matt Bryant and Justin Tucker are ranked ahead of him. The impact of this ranking is two-fold: First, kickers are going later in general this year because there is no clear-cut top option. Most people who are ambitious enough to pop the kicker cherry in drafts do not want to select the third-ranked kicker in doing so, and they don’t think Matt Bryant will replicate his K1 season, and while most people love Justin Tucker, they know enough to realize that Joe Flacco and the Ravens offense are sketchy sources of scoring. The combination of these three factors means that the “Taco” of your fantasy league isn’t as Gung-ho to take the first kicker. Therefore, whereas the first kicker in many leagues is taken


around pick 100 overall (it’s a mind thing; people who know they shouldn’t take kickers early feel more justified in doing so once they see triple digits on the board), THIS YEAR I’ve noticed it’s far more common that the first kicker is taken in the 120-130s range (which is a more appropriate spot). Second, when “that guy” finally does take the first kicker, it may not even be Gostkowski. This is huge, because it’s a siren; it sounds the alarm that it’s time to take Gostkowski with your next pick.

In sum, Gostkowski was the top-ranker four seasons in a row before last year. He’s supported by what looks to be an amazing offense on a team that could go undefeated, giving him PLENTY of scoring opportunities. And most importantly, he’s on a “limited time only” 1-year sale with a discounted price around picks ~120-130, after the talent pool drops off, so you don’t look like a fool taking him in Round 9-10 when plenty of flex options are still available.

Get Gost, Get it done.

Oh, and if he gets taken, don’t reach for another top-rated kicker. Just wait until the one of the last two rounds of the draft as usual to take Saints kicker Will Lutz. Lutz quietly finished as the 5th best kicker last season as a rookie, and he is supported by Drew Brees and the Saints’ annually high-scoring offense. After a slow start to the season, Lutz scored 7 or more points in 10 of his final 12 games, ranking as K3 during that span. His ESPN rank is 11th, so you can wait until after most teams take their kicker to select Lutz.

KICKER STRATEGY:

Stephen Gostkowski in Rounds 10-12.

IF NOT, Will Lutz in Rounds 14-15. IF NOT, wait until the last round, pick anyone, and play matchups using the rules above or by asking

me who to use at kicker each week on my Start/Sit Facebook Live chats on Sunday mornings.

DEFENSES

Seattle Seahawks (DST2) – The Seahawks underwhelmed last season, finishing as DST8, due in large part to injuries to three key starters. DE Michael Bennett DNP weeks 8-12, FS Earl Thomas DNP weeks 12-18, and SS Kam Chancellor DNP weeks 6-9. The drop-off in this defense’s play when the ‘Hawks were without their All-Pro safeties was noticeable on the field, and the analytics only confirmed the significance of their absences. This a completely different defense when Bennett, Thomas, and Chancellor are healthy. Seattle had finished as a Top-5 DST in each of the three seasons prior to 2016. And they are also due for positive regression in the touchdown department, as Seattle only had 1 DTD last season, a number that surely will rise in 2017. The Seahawks also get to play the Rams and 49ers twice, as well as the Texans and Jaguars’ weak offenses. These things make me comfortable with taking the plunge on the Seahawks as the first or second DST off the board. Depending on draft flow, I start thinking about them around picks ~115-120’ish.


SEA SCHEDULE = gb, SF, ten, IND, @lar, BYE, nyg, HOU, WAS, ari, ATL, sf, PHI, jax, LAR, dal, ARI

New England Patriots (DST7) – The Patriots defense seems to be on my Small Board every season because they are annually underappreciated. Last season, they were ranked similarly, and they managed to finish as DST3 despite failing to score a single defensive touchdown. Do not underestimate this, as the Patriots could just as easily score 5 or 6 DTDs this season. Constantly aided by positive game scripts, the Pats’ winning ways allow them to amass sacks and turnovers while opposing offenses are forced to pass while trailing late in games. Plus, they get to play Jay Cutler’s Dolphins, the rebuilding Bills, and tanking Jets twice a piece! Always good but never great, I have no problem with reaching for the Patriots defense a round or two after the “defense run” starts, provided that this occurs after pick ~130’ish.

NE SCHEDULE = KC, no, HOU, CAR, tb, nyj, ATL, LAC, bye, den, oak, MIA, buf, mia, pit, BUF, NYJ

Jacksonville Jaguars (DST9) – This DST received great news this offseason when ESPN finally decided that defenses shouldn’t be penalized for points allowed when their own offense’s quarterback throws an interception returned for a touchdown. Considering Blake Bortles throws multiple pick-6s a year, this will be beneficial. On a serious note, Jacksonville added 3 big name free agents – DT Calais Campbell, SS Barry Church, and CB A.J. Bouye – and they are now surprisingly loaded with talent on “D.” The team will have an old school approach now that Tom Coughlin is the GM: run the ball and play good defense. There will be some games that Jacksonville loses because their offense can’t keep up, but I believe the Jaguars will be a good matchup play for quite a few games this season. Indeed, they face the easiest schedule of opposing offenses in the NFL in 2017. Most importantly, an ADP of DST9 means you can wait around for them, ideally selecting them in Rounds 13-15.

JAX SCHEDULE = HOU, TEN, BAL, nyj, pit, lar, ind, BYE, CIN, LAC, cle, ari, IND, SEA, HOU, sf, ten

Pittsburgh Steelers (DST15) – The Steelers have been one of my favorite picks in the final two rounds of drafts because 1) they open with the Cleveland Browns; 2) they face bottom-half QBs in each of their first 5 games; 3) they finished strongly last season; and 4) they are expected to win a lot of games, thus having a favorable game script allowing them to accumulate more sacks and turnovers. Because all three defenses listed above have some early season challenges, the Steelers’ attractive early season schedule complements them perfectly, so don’t be afraid to pair SEA/NE/JAX with Pittsburgh late. At DST15, the Steelers can often be had in the final two rounds of the draft, either as a complementing pair or a last-resort DST1 you can open the season with.

PIT SCHEDULE = cle, MIN, chi, bal, JAX, kc, CIN, det, BYE, ind, TEN, GB, cin, BAL, NE, hou, CLE

Defenses with favorable Week 1 Matchups (for matchup streamers):

Panthers (@SF, + vs. BUF in week 2)


Bengals (vs. BAL, + vs. HOU in week 2)

Buccaneers (@MIA, + vs. CHI in week 2)

Chargers (@DEN, + vs. MIA in week 2)

Steelers (@CLE)

Bills (vs. NYJ) Streaming Defenses and Kickers Against the Jets: If you haven’t heard, the Jets stink. I’ve never seen a worse roster or a worse quarterback situation in 16 years of following the NFL, and I believe they are a true candidate for a winless, 0-16 season (albeit more likely 2-14). Either way, all the evidence suggests this team is tanking. Wouldn’t it be nice if your fantasy defense could play against Christian Hackenberg, Bryce Petty or Josh McCown (i.e. the “winner” of the Jets QB battle) most weeks? In addition, the Jets have a horrible offensive line, and the top pass catchers on this team’s hideous depth chart are Robby Anderson, Jalin Marshall, Charone Peake, and TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins. On the Kicker side of things, wouldn’t it be nice if you’re kicker was nearly guaranteed plenty of opportunities to kick against the worst team in the league most weeks? Try streaming kickers and defenses that play against the Jets. New York Jets Opponents: Week 1 - @ Buffalo Bills DST / Stephen Hauschka Week 2 - @ Oakland Raiders DST / Sebastian Janikowski Week 3 - vs. Miami Dolphins DST / Andrew Franks Week 4 - vs. Jacksonville Jaguars / Jason Myers Week 5 - @ Cleveland Browns / Week 6 - vs. New England Patriots / Stephen Gostkowski Week 7 - @ Miami Dolphins / Andrew Franks Week 8 - vs. Atlanta Falcons / Matt Bryant Week 9 - vs. Buffalo Bills / Stephen Hauschka Week 10 - @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers / Nick Folk Week 11 - BYE Week 12 - vs. Carolina Panthers / Graham Gano or Harrison Butker Week 13 - vs. Kansas City Chiefs / Cairo Santos Week 14 - @ Denver Broncos / Brandon McManus Week 15 - @ New Orleans Saints / Will Lutz Week 16 - vs. Los Angeles Chargers / Josh Lambo Week 17 - @ New England Patriots / Stephen Gostkowski The Jets only plays 6 games against teams with DSTs drafted in the Top-12, and they only


play 5 games against teams with Kickers drafted in the Top-12. This means many of these kickers and defenses will be available in free agency to add prior to their matchup with the Jets, at least initially. If you have open roster spots, it may be wise to plan ahead add whichever DST is facing the Jets in the future. The key for beating your competition to the Jets’ opponent’s DST is to work two weeks in advance, as you are less likely to get the Jets’ opponent DST if you wait until the week of (because all of the DST streamers in your league will be competing for them). To illustrate, let’s say we’ve just finished Week 1, and free agency opens for Week 2. Of course, everyone will make a play for the Raiders DST, the Jets’ Week 2 opponent. Maybe you get them, maybe you don’t. However, to avoid this weekly competition to stream the Jets’ opponent DST, assuming you have a space to stash 2 DSTs, the smart play would be to add the Dolphins DST (the Jets Week 3 opponent) to lock up the Jets’ matchup ahead of your competition. Note that I do not think this is a smart tactic to secure the Jets’ opponent’s Kicker. You can find good kicker plays every week.

BACKUP QBs

IF YOU DRAFTED QB EARLY:

Try to pair him with a backup who has schedule that complements your starter’s schedule. In other words, you want to target a backup QB who plays easy opponents during your starters’ problematic weeks. For example, you can maximize your total QB output by drafting backups who play against the Saints or the Lions when your starter plays Seattle, Denver, or has his BYE week. Because you draft an early QB with the idea in mind that you’ll rarely ever sit him (barring injury), your backup QB is only as good as how much he can help you during the one or two weeks you won’t be using your starter.

Note that it’s not necessary to draft a Backup QB if you don’t want to spend draft capital on one. You’re welcome to just play the waiver wire when your starter’s BYE week is approaching. I’ve provided the best option for either strategy.

Aaron Rodgers – Week 8 BYE – PAIR WITH: Andy Dalton (IND), Sam Bradford (cle), Carson Wentz (SF) Tom Brady – Week 9 BYE, Week 10 @DEN – PAIR WITH: Jameis Winston (no, NYJ), Eli Manning (LAR, sf), Matt Stafford (gb, CLE), Tyrod Taylor (nyj, NO) Drew Brees – Week 5 BYE – PAIR WITH: Sam Bradford (chi), Dalton (BUF), Russell Wilson – Week 6 BYE – PAIR WITH: Marcus Mariota (IND), Matt Stafford (NO), Sam Bradford (GB)


IF YOU DRAFTED QB LATE:

One strategy I like is waiting on QB until about 10-11 teams have drafted their starter (likely rounds 10-12 depending on how fast backup QBs are going in your draft), and then drafting TWO borderline starting QBs to pair and play the matchups with all season. With this strategy, you ideally want to be one of the last teams in your league to draft your “starting QB” and one of the first teams to draft your backup QB.

This strategy doubles your chances of hitting on a breakout QB, doubles your chances on avoid bad matchups, and most importantly, allows you to avoid spending high draft capital on an early round QB.

Keep in mind: THE SMALLER THE LEAGUE, THE LESS IMPORTANT QUARTERBACKS ARE. It’s recommend to hold off on drafting QBs early in 10-team leagues.

Here are a few recommended QBs in that QB12-24 range to pair:

Dak Prescott (QB11) – Many are expecting Prescott to take a huge step back from an amazing rookie year because Dallas faces a much more difficult schedule this season, but I don’t necessarily view this as a bad thing from a fantasy perspective. With the Cowboys constantly leading in games, Dak finished near last in passing attempts per game among starting QBs. Ezekiel Elliot is expected to miss the first six games of the season, which means the Cowboys won’t be as dependent on the run. In addition, Prescott played five games without Dez Bryant last season. While I’m not going to pretend he won’t regress from an efficiency standpoint as an NFL QB, I could see his fantasy PPG remaining similar simply because he’ll be forced to do more. Prescott was QB6 in PPG last season. The Cowboys’ schedule is brutal early (NYG, @DEN, @ARI) but no one is forcing you to start him weeks 1-3. Prescott is a great buy-low after that hump. Marcus Mariota (QB12) – Mariota had a sick stretch between weeks 5-12 where he was QB3 last season. His schedule is more challenging this season (he beat up on a lot of bad teams last season), and the Titans’ commitment to running the ball may prevent him from breaking into elite status. Despite the capped ceiling, Tennessee added WRs Eric Decker and Corey Davis to boost Mariota’s supporting cast – the dude was throwing to guys like Tajae Sharpe, Andre Johnson and Harry Douglas last season. In addition, Mariota can do damage with his legs. He has a very tough stretch of games between weeks 2-4 (@JAX, SEA, @HOU), so he will probably get off to a slow start – which is why I recommend pairing him – but his schedule clears up after that and he should finish as a Top 12 QB. Ben Roethlisberger (QB14) – Big Ben gets a lot of heat among experts in the industry for his injury history and his poor home/road splits (re: 20-5 TD/INT ratio at home last year, 8-9 TD/INT on the road), but this offense is loaded with talent now that Martavis Bryant has been reinstated. With Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant, Le’Veon Bell, and an excellent O-line, it will be difficult for Big Ben NOT to score points. Ben Roethlisberger’s splits with Martavis


Bryant are attractive. He has averaged just 275.7 passing yards, 1.78 touchdowns, and 7.95 yards per attempt without Bryant over the past three seasons, but his rates balloon to 336.6 yards, 2.11 touchdowns, and 8.39 YPA with Martavis playing. He should have his fair share of big games this season, and he’s the perfect QB to pair because if you play your cards right, you can avoid some of his road clunkers. Big Ben’s per-game fantasy finishes of QB7, QB9, and QB5 over the past three years display his upside when healthy. He’s my favorite QB being drafted after the Top 12. Eli Manning (QB17) – His supporting cast consists of Odell Beckham, Brandon Marshall, Sterling Shepard, Evan Engram, and Shane Vereen. The Giants have no running game to speak of, and they will be relying on Manning to move the ball, score. It may not always be pretty (Eli’s play was quite ugly last season), but Eli could legitimately lead the NFL in pass attempts. Volume alone should make him a Top 12 QB. I’m sensing a Kirk Cousins like season – great for fantasy, just OK for reality. Carson Palmer (QB20) – A lot went wrong for Palmer last season. His O-line was bad, his arm was shot after overextending it last summer, and his WRs let him down. A year and half ago, Palmer finished as QB5 and was a legitimate NFL MVP candidate. His upside is apparent as a gunslinger who was QB8 from weeks 8-17 but finished as QB20 because a slow start and a missed game. The Cardinals have praised Palmer this offseason, saying his arm is in much better shape. While his supporting cast remains lacking, the Cardinals have one of the easiest passing schedules in the NFL. Particularly attractive is Palmer’s opening slate of games. He opens the season @DET, @IND, DAL, SF. He could be a Top-5 QB at the quarter mark of the season, making him PERFECT pair with Marcus Mariota, Big Ben, or Dak Prescott, who have some skeletons in their early season schedules. Sam Bradford (QB24) – This is only the second time in Sam Bradford’s entire career that he retains the same offensive coordinator as he had in the season prior. Considering the Vikings’ total lack of running game and offensive line protection, what Bradford did last season after being traded for only days before the 2016 season was extremely impressive. Now, Bradford has a healthy Stefon Diggs, Adam Thielen, Kyle Rudolph, Dalvin Cook, and an improved O-line at his disposal. OC Pat Shurmur LOVES throwing the football. The Vikings have the easiest passing schedule in the NFL this season, so there will be plenty of weeks with favorable matchups. Bradford’s cost is free, making him a great QB2 pickup late in your drafts. One of my favorite sleepers this season, I think Bradford could legitimately post low-end QB1 numbers. Other Recommended Schedule-based Pairings:

Marcus Mariota & Dak Prescott

Marcus Mariota & Andy Dalton

Ben Roethlisberger & Matt Stafford or Carson Palmer

Dak Prescott & Carson Palmer or Sam Bradford

Matt Stafford & Carson Palmer


Philip Rivers & Carson Palmer

Eli Manning & Sam Bradford

Andy Dalton & Sam Bradford

SLEEPERS (ADP >100+) Derrick Henry (ADP: 110) – Not just a DeMarco Murray handcuff. Murray has received a substantial workload over the last three seasons and began to wear down with minor nagging injuries late last year. Henry averaged 10 carries a game following the Titans’ Week 13 BYE (just 6.1 carries a game in Weeks 1-12), and he scored 3 of his 5 TDs in the four games after the BYE week. If Murray goes down, Derrick Henry is a touchdown-scoring league-winner behind a great O-line on a run-committed team. I think it’s possible these two split the work 65/45, with Henry being a preferred goal line option. No matter how you slice it, Henry is a player on the rise. Kareem Hunt (ADP: 105) – I listed Hunt among by DRAFT CRUSHES in April because he’s an underrated, all-purpose back who is shifty enough to elude defenders, strong enough to break tackles, and showed incredible vision and balance at Toledo. I couldn’t be more in love with his destination in Kansas City. Andy Reid has a propensity for putting his RBs (be it Duce Staley, Brian Westbrook, Jamaal Charles, Spencer Ware) in excellent positions for fantasy production. The Chiefs traded up to get Hunt after Ware faded down the stretch following his hot start - Ware averaged only 3.7 YPC in his final 8 games after averaging 5.6 YPC in his first 8 games. There’s a place for Spencer Ware, but ultimately the writing is on the wall. I strongly believe it’s not a matter of IF Ware will be replaced by Hunt this season; it’s a matter of when. And when that happens (it may be midseason), Hunt has a Top 10 outlook going forward. Corey Davis (ADP: 110) – An absolute freak in college, the Titans drafted Davis 5th overall for a reason. He presents the highest ceiling of any Titans pass catcher and is typically drafted the latest among them. May take some weeks to get going, but I like his upside with Mariota at QB. Could be a plug-and-play for second half of the season. Thomas Rawls (ADP: 121) – Rawls took the league by storm when he started 7 games for the injured Marshawn Lynch in 2015. He averaged more than 22 PPR PPG, ranking as RB2 in that span. In short, Rawls was a league-winner before going down with a severe ankle injury late that season. Rawls was only effective and healthy for short spurts of an injury-riddled 2016 season. He flashed his potential in two prime time games, one against Carolina (15-106-2) and the other in the playoffs against Detroit (27-161-1). His season was otherwise unimpressive and inefficient. However, Rawls’ struggles are blamed in part by injuries and a bottom-of-the-barrel running game that couldn’t create running lanes with the read-option as it normally does, due to Russell Wilson’s lack of health/mobility. This season, the Seattle running game is expected to be much better now that Wilson is healthy. Rawls is in a 4-way


competition for touches, but receiving back C.J. Prosise is already hurt, and Eddie Lacy is Eddie Lacy. I’ll have to side with Rawls because he’s shown the most upside, and is much more affordable in drafts than Lacy. If summer and training camp reports mean anything, the starting Seahawks’ RB could be a battle between Rawls and impressive rookie Chris Carson. I’m not ruling anything out with this backfield, but as long as Rawls is healthy, he has the most talent and upside of almost any player you’ll find in the later rounds. Cole Beasley (ADP: 150+) – (PPR formats only) – Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys will have to attempt a lot more passes this year because they won’t be winning as much, in part due to Ezekiel Elliot’s probable absence for 6 games and a much more difficult schedule for Dallas. Passing volume will be higher. Dallas does not have great options outside of Dez Bryant. There’s Terrence Williams and TE Jason Witten, who is the man, but he’s like, 50 years old. Dak showed chemistry with Beasley last season, and Beasley was a legitimate WR2 in games that Dez Bryant did not play last season. But if Dez is returning healthy this season, why do I like Beasley? Well for one, he’s basically free in drafts despite the mainstream site’s change to PPR formats, which I find odd. But more importantly, Dez Bryant has a BRUTAL, league-worst schedule of cornerback matchups. Bryant will have to matchup with Josh Norman twice, Janoris Jenkins twice, Pat Peterson, Aqib Talib/Chris Harris, Casey Hayward, Marcus Peters, and Desmond Trufant. That’s 9/12 games where Bryant will face a Top-20 CB in the NFL. I’m sure a healthy Bryant will get his. But with more passing volume on the table, combined with devoted, sticky coverage on Bryant, Cole Beasley will be relied on more often this season. He’s a sneaky bet for 80 catches and 1,000 REYD. Alvin Kamara (ADP: 139) – (PPR formats only) – Many of my readers are part of WhoDat Nation, so I’m not sure I need to convince them. They’ve seen his exceptional play in preseason. But for those who haven’t, I’m going to open this by reminding you what happened in April’s NFL Draft. Kamara was legitimately receiving first round buzz after a stellar combine, being mocked by Mike Mayock, Daniel Jeremiah, and others to teams like Green Bay and Kansas City late in Round 1. Kamara’s running style was often compared to Jamaal Charles throughout the draft process. However, presumably because of workload concerns (he always split time at TENN), he slipped in the draft. When the Saints saw him on the board in the 3rd round, they felt that they HAD to have him, so much so that THE SAINTS SENT NEXT YEAR’S SECOND ROUND PICK AND SEVENTH ROUNDER TO TRADE UP A FEW SPOTS TO SELECT KAMARA IN THE THIRD ROUND. The team has big plans for him this season, especially now that Brandin Cooks is gone. Kamara is slated to play passing down role in this offense, which has shown to be RB2 worthy in full point PPR formats. Kamara is not as good as Sproles as a receiver, but he’s a better runner, and he’s a perfect complement to Adrian Peterson. I love him as a late grab in PPR formats who can hold down the fort during your RBs BYE weeks, with RB2 upside if someone like Ingram were to go down or be phased out. Also, FYI: his last name is pronounced Ka-MARE-ah. MAIR, not MAR. Shane Vereen (ADP: 150+) – (PPR formats only) – I really don’t know what to expect with the Giants running game. Vereen missed most of last season with a torn triceps injury, so he’s flying under the radar in drafts, particularly now that the industry default is a PPR format.


The Giants will use Vereen on passing downs and on 2-minute drills when the Giants are in the Hurry Up. Eli Manning will have no choice but to throw quick passes to Vereen behind a dangerous pair of offensive tackles. I like him as a RB4/5 in PPR formats who should provide a steady 10 PPG in PPR formats. Jamaal Williams (ADP: 150+) – If you don’t trust Ty Montgomery’s ability to stay healthy, Jamaal Williams is the pick for you. He’s the favorite for backup RB duties behind Ty-Mont, and he’s been getting some first team reps in practice. Obviously, a running back getting touches for the NFL’s best offense carries fantasy potential. Rex Burkhead (ADP: 120) – No one really knows which of the four RBs will emerge in the Patriots’ valuable backfield, but with Mike Gillislee and James White valued in the Top 100 by drafters, I’m buying stock in Burkhead late. Burkhead is a versatile runner who can catch passes, and he’s someone who Belichick vouched for in free agency. It’s likely Burkhead will have a few big games this season. When to expect them? I have no idea. But he’s on all three of my teams so far because of the ceiling is sky high and the cost is minimal. Coby Fleener (ADP: 150+) – Fleener is not a good football player, and I wouldn’t be stunned if he was cut in a few weeks (he’s probably safe for financial reasons). That said, Fleener was a 7th round pick in fantasy drafts last season who is basically undrafted this year. The only difference is that he’s now had a year to get acclimated with the offense after struggling with the playbook and timing last season. Fleener was quietly TE13 in fantasy PPG last season, and that was probably the worst case scenario as a starting TE for Drew Brees. Brees has always loved using TEs, dating back to Antonio Gates when he was with the Chargers, and getting top-10 TE seasons out of Jeremy Shockey, Jimmy Graham, and Ben Watson here in New Orleans. Fleener may be infuriating to watch, but he had 16 red zone targets last season (4th among TEs), and some targets are up for grabs now with Brandin Cooks gone. He has very real bust potential. I wouldn’t be shocked if Josh Hill outscored him this season. Nevertheless, Fleener also has legitimate top-6 upside in this offense and the cost to found out is only a 14th round draft pick. He’s worth a TE2 flier for sure. Austin Hooper (ADP: 150+) – New offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian is expected to utilize his TE more than his predecessor. Hooper is a young, ascending talent who made some waves after Jacob Tamme got injured last season, including catching a touchdown in the Super Bowl. He has a good QB in Matt Ryan, Julio Jones to draw coverage away, and if history is any indication, Julio won’t steal any red zone targets from Hooper. He should enter the TE streaming conversation, and I think he’s a nice TE2 to stash.

HANDCUFFS WORTH DRAFTING Handcuffs are typically an overrated concept, but I do believe they are a wise insurance policy in the following circumstances:

1) The backup RB must be obvious. Often times, people waste late draft picks by


attempting to handcuff RBs that either do not have a clear-cut backup or usually teams will

2) The backup RB must be able to return top-12 value if the starter went down. The purpose of handcuffing is secure a team’s backfield because it’s a prime spot for fantasy production, regardless of who is getting the carries. If the backup RB would merely be in a committee with another backup, or if the team would change their offensive identity after their starter would go down, then there’s no value in securing the handcuff.

3) You play in a deep league. Handcuffing your top RB is more important if you play in a deep league because in deep leagues, losing your stud RB is much more difficult to overcome. Whereas in most 10-team leagues, your RB depth is a lot better, or your handcuff may even be in free agency. Therefore, it’s not recommend to hold a valuable roster spot all season long for an insurance policy when you could be using that spot on players that could have starting value to your team on a given week. In deep leagues, that final roster spot you’re using to hold your handcuff is a lot less likely to be useful because the free agency pool is shallower.

What players fit these criteria? Darren McFadden (ADP: 99) if you draft Ezekiel Elliot – Fully in grasp of the #2 role behind Ezekiel Elliot, the old Run DMC seems like an obvious handcuff now that Elliot may miss up to six weeks for a suspension. Even if Zeke was not being suspended, I would STILL argue McFadden is a necessary handcuff, as he would be the lead back behind one of the best O-lines in football on a conservative team with a good and mobile QB. McFadden would likely be a weekly low-end RB1. The only negative is that Dallas opens with NYG, @DEN, and @ARI in their first three games, which would be challenging from a matchup standpoint if McFadden is forced to start because of the Zeke suspension. Nevertheless, McFadden is a quality insurance policy which allows Zeke owners to secure the output from a valuable situation as the Cowboys’ running back. This insurance policy doesn’t come without a price, as McFadden’s ADP has risen to the 9th Round following the news of Elliot’s suspension. However, the cost is justified when you consider that you probably were able to get Elliot at a discount because of the same news. Jonathan Williams (ADP: 200+) if you draft LeSean McCoy – If you have ever drafted LeSean McCoy (and you did if you followed this guide last season) knows that he can be a heart ache to own because while he’s amazing when healthy, he’s also one of the most fragile RBs in the NFL. Just last season, McCoy missed week 8, and left weeks 7, 11, and 17 early due to variety of injuries. The upside of McCoy is clear this year: imagine if he were to miraculously stay healthy for 16 games AND not have to worry about Mike Gillislee (9 TDs last season) siphoning goal line scores! The Bills were the league’s heaviest run offense last season, as well as the most efficient. It’s their bread and butter, which makes it clear that if (when) McCoy goes down, Williams would boast top-12 upside. While he’s not nearly as talented as McCoy, he would at minimum offer solid RB2 insurance on a run-first team with a good O-line and mobile QB who helps open up running lanes. McCoy is one of the biggest injury risks


in all of fantasy football. James Conner (ADP: 173) if you draft Le’Veon Bell – Unlike David Johnson, I believe Le’Veon Bell has a clear-cut handcuff (in deeper leagues, a decent insurance policy may be enough to persuade you to take Bell > Johnson if you’re torn). We’ve seen DeAngelo Williams post top-6 numbers when Le’Veon Bell has missed time in the past three seasons. Williams was a league-winner in 2015 and allowed Bell owners who cuffed him last season during his 3-game suspension to feel as though he was never suspended. My point is that this Steelers’ RB situation is valuable. Williams is gone now, and the Steelers drafted hometown hero James Conner in the third round. Right now, he’s competing with Fitzgerald Toussaint to be Bell’s primary backup. In fact, both have been getting first team reps this summer because of Bell’s hold out. Conner is worth drafting if you’re a Bell owner because he’s expected to win the backup job over Toussaint, provides top-12 upside if Bell were to get hurt or drag out this contract hold out, and is cost is essentially free, which is quite rare for a high-quality handcuff.

DEEP SLEEPERS (ADP >150+) Paul Richardson (WR – SEA) – Stepped up at the end of last season and in the playoffs after Tyler Lockett went down. Has amazing hands and made some sick catches in his brief stint as the starter. Seattle recently placed him in the starting lineup over Jermaine Kearse before hurting his knee in preseason. He has Flex worthy upside if he can win back the starting job. A fun-to-watch player who has potential with Russell Wilson at QB. Tarik Cohen (RB – CHI) – Cohen would be a PPR gem if Jordan Howard were to go down. Even if Howard stays upright, Cohen is a Darren Sproles like player that Chicago is very high on. He could carve out a new role as a passing down back for a team that will be losing often, playing for a QB (Mike Glennon) who likes checking down. Brandon Coleman (WR – NO) – He’s drawn rave reviews all summer, and Drew Brees recently called him the “most reliable” receiver on the team this summer. Coleman 6’5, making him a decent red zone threat, and he’s one Thomas or Snead injury away from fantasy relevance with Brees at QB. Robert Turbin (RB – IND) – Quietly scored 8 TDs last season as the Colts’ preferred red zone back. The Colts could begin to move on from the 33-year-old Frank Gore. Turbin started seeping into Gore’s workload late last season. The team is high on both Turbin and rookie Marlon Mack. Keep an eye out for both. Cooper Kupp (WR – LAR) – Will play the Jamison Crowder role in Sean McVay’s offense. Jared Goff reportedly has great chemistry with Kupp, and beat writers have been very impressed with him in practice. With Sammy Watkins learning the playbook and adjusting to a new offense, Kupp could be relevant in PPR formats, at least initially.


Charles Clay (TE – BUF) – Clay’s final 4 games last season: 3-53-1, 7-72-1, 8-85-2, 3-20-0, the last of which was without Tyrod Taylor at QB. Clay quietly had an outstanding push late last season with Taylor, and now that Sammy Watkins is gone, the Bills are looking for a pass catcher to step up. Most are looking at Zay Jones and Jordan Matthews, but both are new to the team. Clay should be on the TE2 radar. Kenny Golladay (WR – DET) – This is purely based on offseason hype, as Golladay has impressed the team and Detroit beat writers from the moment he stepped on the practice field. The team is looking for someone to fill in Anquan Boldin’s shoes as the slot WR. Golladay probably needs an injury to Marvin Jones or Golden Tate to be startable, but he’s a name to keep an eye on. Austin Seferian-Jenkins (TE – NYJ) – ASJ has a legitimate shot at being the Jets’ leading receiver, which is not saying much, but nevertheless. On a serious note, he’s totally changed his life after personal problems (alcohol related) temporarily drove him out of the league. The Jets have been extremely impressed with his work ethic, and he’s been dominating in practices. It’s highly doubtful ASJ ever becomes reliable from a fantasy perspective – this is the Jets we’re talking about – but he is talented, and you never know if one of the Jets’ young QBs will take a liking toward him. Josh Gordon (WR – CLE) – Fantasy’s #1 WR in 2013, Gordon hasn’t been relevant since, but he is allowed to reapply for reinstatement in September, and he’s reportedly in great football shape. Even if there’s a 1% chance of him being reinstated and contributing this season, why not spend your last round pick on him on the off chance? If he’s not reinstated before the season, you can always cut him. No harm, no foul. Remember, at this point in the draft, we’re just swinging for the upside fences anyway.

PLAYERS I’M NOT DRAFTING AT COST (AVOID!)

Mike Evans (ADP: 6) – Games 1-8: 102/55-745-8 … Games 9-16: 70/41-576-4. Evans’ numbers took a hit in the second half of the season after defenses started focusing on him, Bucs started running more. DeSean Jackson and Chris Godwin are massive upgrades over rotation of nameless #2 and #3 WRs for Tampa last season. TEs O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate will both have roles, possibly in red zone. All of this to say Evans thrived on monster target volume in 2016 that won’t exist in 2017. T.Y. Hilton (ADP: 14) – I’m not touching any Colts until we get confirmation Andrew Luck will be ready to go in week 1, which I’m doubting at this point. Skilled players in this offense have minimal value with Scott Tolzien at QB. Even if Luck does start Week 1, there is cause for


concern due to Donte Moncrief’s healthy return (he missed 7 games last season). As Evan Silva wisely pointed out, Hilton averaged 10.3 targets for 101.3 yards with a nine-touchdown pace in Moncrief’s absence, Hilton’s averages dipped to 9.2 targets, 82.1 yards, and a four-score pace when Moncrief played. DeMarco Murray (ADP: 15) – RB3 for first half of the season, RB12 for the second half. A big reason for this was because the Titans started giving Henry more touches, especially near the goal line. If Henry is the team’s goal line back, Murray’s value takes big hit. Titans are a contender now – will coach use both backs to preserve Murray for playoffs? Even outside of Henry looming, the Titans have a lot more mouths to feed. This offense opened the season with Tajae Sharpe as its #1 WR. Sharpe is now 5th(?) on the depth chart. Simply put, the Titans had no choice but to grind Murray last season. Derrick Henry, Corey Davis, Rishard Matthews, Eric Decker, Delanie Walker, and Taywan Taylor are all deserving of touches this season. Jordan Howard (ADP: 13) – Imaging the teams that spent the offseason watching Bears film are preparing to stack box against them. Bears have a strong O-line, but poor QB play and negative game scripts may limit Howard’s upside, especially because he’s not a developed receiver out of the backfield yet. The Bears added scat backs like Tarik Cohen and Benny Cunningham to play on passing downs. The Bears open with ATL, @TB, PIT, @GB, @BAL, CAR, and @NO. Which of those games do we see them winning? I hate to say it, but despite a strong interior O-line (positive for Howard), and a potentially great front-7, Chicago could realistically start 1-6, maybe 0-7. At that point, we're dealing with QB changes to a raw Mitch Trubisky, which will throw off defenses and invite defenses to stack the box against Howard (they will be already after last season's success). It just seems like this has a chance to be a messy situation. I understand Howard overcame a similar situation last year. I owned Howard in a few leagues, and he always exceeded my matchup-based expectations. However, it's a personal philosophy of mine not to draft players with bad QB situations in the first 3 rounds, as many non-injury busts can be attributed to bad situations, despite a player's talent. As mentioned, since 1970, just 22.9 percent of all top-12 scoring running backs have come from teams with fewer than seven wins and just 8.5 percent have come from teams with fewer than five wins. Howard was an exception last year, but odds are against lightning striking in the same place twice. He's not on my draft board. Leonard Fournette (ADP: 23) – Jacksonville’s plan is to pound the rock, but Fournette’s playing style (re: aggressive contact seeker, inability to side-step tackles) may need to be adjusted behind an offensive line that will struggle to open up holes for him. By the same token, I’m worried about his ability to stay healthy at this level. In addition, I’m not convinced he’s an every down back yet. Will he play on passing downs? We didn’t see it at LSU. He was brought in to help the QB, but the dismal QB play will curtail his upside. Rooting for him as an LSU Tiger fan, but there are too many questions for fantasy purposes. Alshon Jeffery (ADP: 27) – Jeffery’s ADP is baffling to me. I’m not convinced Carson Wentz is good enough to support a top-12 WR, nor am I convinced the Eagles intend to use him like


one. There are no indications that Jeffery was brought in to be the team’s #1 WR of the future. He essentially signed a one-year contract, presumably because no other team wanted to take a greater chance on him coming off two injury-plagued seasons in which he’s combined for 6 TDs in his last 20 games played. Doug Pederson comes from Kansas City and runs Andy Reid’s offense where the TE and RB positions are the focal point of the passing game, not WRs. Put simply, his lofty ADP is based on a lot of speculation and is not justified. Ty Montgomery (ADP: 35) – Montgomery has done nothing to show he can handle a running back’s workload. Reached 10 rushing attempts in a game only ONCE last season, yet he’s being drafted as a top-15 RB. His only great rushing game last season came against a Chicago defense missing half of its starting front-7. In fact, his stats are dramatically less impressive when you take out the two games against the hapless Bears. Packers drafted 3 RBs to compete. Can he block? Should be useful as a real-life player, but way too many question marks and not proven enough to warrant selection in Rounds 1-4. Carlos Hyde (ADP: 36) – I get the appeal: Hyde is a talented runner and his new OC Kyle Shanahan has gotten excellent seasons out of his RBs. However, Hyde comes with plenty of risks. First, he’s a nonfactor in the receiving game, which is not ideal on a 49ers team that will be losing often. Second, we have no real idea he’s going to a good scheme fit for Shanahan’s system simply because he’s a gifted tackle breaker. Shanahan inherited Hyde, not hand-picked him, and his zone-blocking scheme is something Hyde has never had to do in the NFL. Moreover, the 49ers have added a slew of (albeit lesser) RBs who have played in this type of offense before. Hyde was the subject of trade rumors in April. Third, the 49ers have one of the harshest schedules against the run in NFL this season. Fourth, Hyde remains one of the most injury-prone backs in the league. Overall, Hyde is an underrated running back, but he has an uphill battle to climb for fantasy production this season. Jarvis Landry (ADP: 40) – In week 5, the Adam Gase totally revamped Miami’s offense to revolve around RB Jay Ajayi. STATTTTT. The Dolphins have since lost QB Ryan Tannehill, who has always shown chemistry with Landry, for the 2017 season. Now Jay Cutler, an imprecise, but aggressive downfield passer suits DeVante Parker’s game much more than Landry’s. The Dolphins have made it very clear that Parker will be the focal point of the passing game, hyping him up all offseason and refusing to give Landry a contract extension. Not a touchdown-scorer, Landry is a volume-dependent WR who no longer receives volume. I would much rather draft DeVante Parker five rounds later. Heck, I would rather draft Parker at Landry’s ADP than Landry himself. Julian Edelman (ADP: 48) – Edelman’s best games came when TE Rob Gronkowksi was out or limited. Now, Gronk is back, and WR Brandin Cooks has been added to an offense that also features underrated talents like Chris Hogan and Malcolm Mitchell. Coupled with the amount of passes that will go to RBs Dion Lewis, James White, and Rex Burkhead, I can’t envision a scenario where Edelman returns 5th round value unless some of the aforementioned players get injured. There are simply too much mouths to feed in this offense, and Edelman has always been a volume-driven WR.


Sammy Watkins (ADP: 54) – Even putting aside the obvious QB downgrade from Tyrod Taylor to Jared Goff, his trade to the Rams comes only three weeks before the season, and he may need time to learn the playbook and adjust to the new offense. He’ll have some big games because he’s very talented, but remember he’s also very injury-prone. Keep in mind that just because he’s the best Rams’ WR doesn’t mean Goff will treat him as such. He’s likely already developed chemistry with other players on the roster. Mark Ingram (ADP: 55) – I’m sure Ingram will have a decent-sized role in the Saints offense, but Ingram has the highest ADP of the Saints’ three-headed monster at RB, and it doesn’t seem like he’ll be getting the most meaningful touches, with Adrian Peterson likely to get goal line carries, and Alvin Kamara likely to lead the trio in receptions and receiving yards. This leaves Ingram in a Pierre Thomas like role where he’s given about 7-8 rushes and 3-4 screen passes a game. Thomas was a great player for the Saints, but he was not a reliable fantasy producer. I think it will take an injury to either Kamara or Peterson to justify taking Ingram in Round 5. Frank Gore (ADP: 59) – His value is dependent on Andrew Luck’s health, which we simply can’t assume will be OK at this point. At age 33, the Colts have talked up backup RB Robert Turbin and drafted RB Marlon Mack this offseason, both signs they are preparing to reduce Gore’s role in order to prepare for life without him. Indianapolis clearly preferred Turbin, who quietly scored 8 TDs last season), over Gore in the red zone and on obvious passing downs toward the end of last season. The Colts horrific defense will prevent them from closing out many games with leads, which is where Gore’s main opportunity to score fantasy points was. Now without center Ryan Kelly for at least half of the season, this O-line projects to be a mess. For these reasons, the wheels could finally be coming off for the ageless wonder. Matt Ryan (ADP: 62) – Regression seems inevitable with Ryan, who exploded in 2016 after failing to be a top-20 QB in 2015. Ryan led the NFL in dropped interceptions, he had no major injuries among his skill positions, and his the 5 starters on his O-line managed to play in 80/80 possible games. OC Kyle Shanahan’s departure is also another negative factor. Put very simply, everything went right for Ryan in 2016, and it’s highly unlikely to recur this season. I have doubts his 2017 numbers are better than Russell Wilson’s, who is going after Ryan in drafts. Further, it’s unlikely he out-produces many of the QBs in the QB8-QB14 range, yet their cost is 5 rounds cheaper than Ryan’s. Willie Snead (ADP: 65) – I love Snead in reality, but his quiet offseason has me worried. I certainly think he’s a candidate for an 1,000-yard season, but I’m struggling to project Snead more than 8 TDs. Further, I could see Snead being simply another piece of the pizza as opposed to differentiating himself from other targets. For instance, with Saints running the ball more often, spreading the ball around to Michael Thomas (who should get at least 130 targets), three different running backs, Coby Fleener, Ted Ginn, and Brandon Coleman, that doesn’t leave Snead with a massive slice of the pizza. Snead presents a safe floor with Drew


Brees as his QB for solid raw numbers at season’s end, but he’ll likely be inconsistent with all of the Saints weapons, and at this point in the draft I would rather shoot for WRs with higher ceilings. Delanie Walker (ADP: TE5) – Walker enjoyed another nice season as one of the Titans’ primary pass catchers last season, but that’s probably because he was competing with Tajae Sharpe, Harry Douglas, and Andre Johnson for targets. Now, Mariota has established trust in Rishard Mathews, the Titans spent a Top 5 selection on WR Corey Davis, signed TD hog Eric Decker, and drafted TE Jonnu Smith, who could be Walker’s eventual successor. The much improved passing game weapons not only clutter Walker’s fantasy outlook, but we can’t forget the Titans are a run-first team, and DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry will soak up touches in the red zone, where TEs do most of their damage. Walker should be drafted around TE11, not TE5. Theo Riddick (ADP: 67) – Riddick may be an excellent 3rd down back and excellent check down option for Stafford, but he has never been effective running the ball, rendering him useless in non-PPR formats. Riddick is not a good bet for touchdowns, and if we see Ameer Abdullah creep into his pass catching role, his value will plummet. With Marvin Jones, Golden Tate, Kenny Golladay, Eric Ebron, and Abdullah, there are a lot of mouths to feed in this passing game. I would rather wait a few rounds for passing down backs in similar niche roles. Spencer Ware (ADP: 68) – Only 3 good games and fading badly after week 7 are among his game-logging red flags. All indications are he’s merely a placeholder for Kareem Hunt, and we should not be surprised if they split carries out of the gate. Hunt is the cheaper option with the higher ceiling. Tevin Coleman (ADP: 71) – It will probably take a Devonta Freeman injury for Coleman to come close to his 11 total TDs last season. It’s unclear if new OC Steve Sarkisian will use Coleman as effectively or as much as Kyle Shanahan did, but judging by Atlanta’s commitment to Devonta Freeman (they just made him the highest paid RB in the NFL by signing him to a 5-year contract), it’s doubtful the plan is to use Freeman LESS. Coleman could be a glorified handcuff, and there are still starting RBs on the board around this pick. LeGarrette Blount (ADP: 80) – A key component of Doug Pederson’s offense is using his RBs his moveable chess pieces to create mismatches. Blount has no ability as a receiver, and he hasn’t been successful with any team other than New England since his rookie year in 2010. Blount is one-dimensional, and he’s not a good fit this offense. Barring injury to others, it's unlikely Blount plays more than 50% of the snaps for the Eagles next season because he simply doesn't fit into the offense. Blount was simply brought in to fill the Ryan Mathews role as a rotational back in a 3-man committee. He won't be trustworthy, and in PPR formats, we shouldn't be surprised to see Darren Sproles outscore him. You can do better in Round 8 than a 140-500-6 rushing line from a player you'll never have any idea of when to start.


Eddie Lacy (ADP: 82) – Why would I draft Eddie Lacy in Round 7 when I can take Thomas four rounds later? After all, Rawls is a better player, has been on the team longer, had a much better offseason, and has more upside (see 2016 playoffs). Bilal Powell (ADP: 45) & Matt Forte (ADP: 96) – I loved Powell last year, and he actually helped me win a championship with his incredible RB3 run in the final four games of last season, but his ADP is too high for someone on the New York Jets. I get the argument that this team is tanking, and he’ll be the lone option. However, it’s not that easy, because 1) we don’t know if that’s true, Matt Forte still exists and the Jets may like his leadership and versatility on the field; and 2) even if Powell was the sole ball carrier, we don’t know if being the lone option on this sad, pathetic team will be even good enough. Will the Jets be running the ball much at all when they are down 14-0 at the end of every first quarter? Even when they do, this O-line may be the league’s worst, so running lanes will be rare. The QB play is so abysmal to the point where even RB check downs will prove to be a difficult task. I’m not confident a QB on the Jets’ atrocious roster is competent enough put Powell in a position to succeed. And again, Powell may be splitting reps with Forte. I’m confident Powell is the superior talent to Forte at this point. Heck, Powell is legitimately the Jets’ best offensive player! However, this seems like a mess I want to avoid. Eric Decker (ADP: 83) & Rishard Matthews (ADP: 106) – I’m not going to pretend to know how the targets will be divvied up in this offense. Throw in WR Corey Davis and TE Delanie Walker, and I have no clue which of these four Titans’ pass catchers will rank first or last in team receptions, receiving yards, or receiving touchdowns. But if all 4 are getting a near even distribution, then I’m not interested in selecting them. This area of the draft is not about getting good value, it’s about swinging for the fences and acquiring players with the highest ceilings. In this type of scenario where a number of WRs could compete to be the team’s target, usually the smartest play is to either (A.) Secure the entire pie rather than predicting which piece is best, by taking the team’s QB, which I think is a perfectly fine option in this case with Mariota; and (2) draft the WR with the cheapest cost. In this case, the most affordable option among the four is Corey Davis (ADP: 112), and he also happens to have the highest upside. Therefore, I’m avoiding Walker, Decker, and Mathews, and targeting Mariota and Corey Davis at their current cost. Cameron Meredith (ADP: 84) – Meredith is a good athlete, but I’m not sure he’s suited to be an outside WR. A more natural fit for the slot, the Bears added Kendall Wright, Markus Wheaton, and Victor Cruz to compete there. Meredith’s good games last season came when Alshon Jeffery was distracting attention, and he padded his stats in garbage time and via a long Hail Mary. Even if he “hits,” you can’t feel confident with Mike Glennon and/or Mitch Trubisky at QB. I don’t “hate” Meredith because I can see a scenario where he leads the team in receiving, but I think it’s just as likely to be Kevin White, whose ADP is 60 picks later at 140 overall.


Andrew Luck (ADP: QB6) – It’s amazing that Luck is still being as a top-10 QB at this point of August. He hasn’t practiced with his team yet (offseason shoulder surgery). The team has given no timetable on his return (bad news in coach speak), and the only person in the organization who has seemed remotely optimistic about his availability is his owner, whose job it is to sell tickets and promote the team. Even if he returned to full practices tomorrow, he still has only two weeks at this point to get reps in with his team. The chance for re-injury remains a possibility, especially as the team just lost center Ryan Kelly until midseason at the earliest. Luck finished as the QB4 last season, but only QB7 in PPG. So even if everything works out perfectly, you aren’t even getting an advantage by taking Luck. In fact, it’s certainly possible – even likely – that QBs selected several rounds later (think Cousins, Winston, Mariota, Big Ben, Stafford range) will outscore Luck. In addition, drafting Luck in the hopes of using him as trade bait is a fool’s errand. QBs are a dime a dozen in fantasy football. Andrew Luck and this entire Colts offense is far more likely to be a trap than a value this season. Terrence West (ADP: 88) – Danny Woodhead will soak up all of the targets in the receiving game, and it’s possible Woodhead will be used in the red zone as well, which would really limit West’s value to first and second down running between the 20s. This is not a recipe for success in any sort of PPR format. Furthermore, the Ravens have never seemed high on West, and I think he’s more of a fall back plan now that Kenneth Dixon is out for the reason. I wouldn’t be surprised if Baltimore makes a move for a running back to compete with West. In general, I don’t feel very comfortable with his role or the team’s commitment to him. Mike Wallace (ADP: 89) – Much more competition for targets (Woodhead, Maclin, Perriman) will render him a spotty week-to-week play at best. Adam Thielen (ADP: 91) – Thielen’s ADP is based on one 200-yard game against the league’s worst secondary last season and a decent stretch run in which #1 WR Stefon Diggs was either out or played hurt in. Stefon Diggs is the clear-cut WR for the Vikings as long he’s healthy. TE Kyle Rudolph is the #2 option. So do you really view the #3 option in Sam Bradford’s passing game as a top-100 player? I do not. In fact, assuming he’ll the sure #3 target is actually optimistic when you consider that Michael Floyd, Laquon Treadwell, and/or Dalvin Cook could easily carve into Thielen’s role. James White (ADP: 95) – He was amazing in the Super Bowl (should have won MVP), but his effort came when the Pats were trailing for most of the game by double digits. Is that going to happen even once this season? My main deterrence, however, is the competition for touches. The Pats have 3 other running backs vying for touches, two of which – Burkhead and Lewis – are also mismatches in the passing game. I’m sure White will have some big PPR days, but we’ll never know when they are coming. Neither will opposing defenses. That’s Belichick’s goal, after all. Burkhead goes 50 picks later in drafts. C.J. Prosise (ADP: 94) – Prosise is a young, talented third down back, but he’s never shown he can stay healthy in even a limited capacity. Even if he recovers cleanly from the hamstring


strain he recently suffered in training camp (all bets are off, considering his slow healing history), Prosise’s role as the receiving back in Seattle is simply not that valuable. Russell Wilson has never shown a tendency to throw passes to RBs, Seattle has never been more loaded with weapons offensively, and Prosise is competing with Rawls, Lacy, and Carson for RB touches. Because of his health concerns, the team will be extremely reluctant to give Prosise more than 5-6 rushing attempts a game. His upside is completely overstated. Jacquizz Rodgers (ADP: 113) – Rodgers’ fantasy value extends no further than the first three games of the season he’s slated to start for the suspended Doug Martin. No one is really dealing with injuries or BYE weeks during the first three weeks of the season, so will you even use Rodgers? Spend your 9th-10th Round pick on a potential league-winner like Kareem Hunt or Derrick Henry, not a backup RB you may not even need whose value is sapped after 3 games. Sterling Shepard (ADP: 118) – I love Shepard as a player, but it’ll take an Odell Beckham or Brandon Marshall injury to be relevant. Even if this occurs, we’ve seen his value as a #2 WR last season, and it wasn’t more than a sporadic flex play. The Giants gave $8 million guaranteed to blocking tight end Rhett Ellison before spending a first-rounder on pass-catching tight end Evan Engram. Both moves suggest an uptick in two-tight end sets, meaning fewer snaps for Sterling Shepard now that Brandon Marshall will play opposite of Beckham in 2-WR sets. Shepard needed 1,005 snaps, the sixth-most snaps at his position, and an unsustainable 6-of-12 red zone TD rate to finish as the PPR WR36 last season. Shepard’s ADP is where it is because he overachieved in the touchdown department last season, which is one of the most fluctuating stats for a wide receiver. Corey Coleman (ADP: 111) – If you feel the bizarre desire to draft a Browns’ WR despite the looming threat of Brock Osweiler starting the season as this team’s QB, go with Kenny Britt, who will be featured more in the red zone than Coleman, who has only shown ability as a downfield threat at this point. Randall Cobb (ADP: 114) – I can absolutely envision a scenario where Cobb scores 7 TDs and becomes relevant again thanks to Aaron Rodgers and maybe better luck in the health department. Even then, however, Cobb is not going to win your league. He’s a “I hope he’s somewhat valuable” pick. At this point in the draft, the better philosophy is to seek “If _____ happens, he could be a top-12 WR” picks. Rodgers is amazing, but Cobb is forced to fend off Jordy Nelson, Davante Adams, and Martellus Bennett for relevancy. He was useless last season in a better role. Tyrod Taylor (ADP: QB15) – Losing Sammy Watkins is significant. Taylor has a daunting schedule (@CAR, DEN, @ATL, @CIN, BYE, TB, OAK) weeks 2-8 that could result in shaky job security for the rebuilding Bills. He’s not a top-20 QB for me anymore. Chris Thompson (ADP: 126) – Shane Vereen is an identical pick that can be had three rounds later.


Kansas City Chiefs DST (ADP: DST3) – There seems to be a big drop-off at DST after the Broncos and Seahawks, so to be fair, I was probably not going to like whoever was ranked as DST3. That said, Kansas City scored 8 defensive TDs last season (not sustainable) and had a 6-INT game against Ryan Fitzpatrick that padded their stats last season. The Chiefs were gashed on the ground after ILB Derrick Johnson tore his Achilles. Johnson is supposed to be ready for Week 1, but if his effectiveness is compromised, we could see the same signs of leakage, especially since Dontari Poe departed. And you have to sit them week 1 against the Patriots, too. Robert Woods (ADP: 142) – Clouded outlook as Jared Goff’s #3 WR following the trade for Sammy Watkins and SWR Cooper Kupp’s emergence.

BREAKOUT CANDIDATES I’M DRAFTING ABOVE COST (TARGET!)

Russell Wilson (ADP: QB5) – If you take nothing else away from this extensive Draft Guide, know that I want you to draft Russell Wilson as your quarterback this season. Astute fantasy footballers got a glimpse of Wilson’s league-winning upside when Wilson shredded the NFL to the tune of an amazing 24-1 TD/INT ratio in the final 7 games of the 2015 season. He finished as QB2 that season, only ranking behind Cam Newton’s MVP campaign, just one year after Wilson finished as the QB3 in 2014. Needless to say, there was a lot of optimism going into the 2016 season. Unfortunately, there also ended up a lot of unsatisfied customers. Last season, Wilson had his worst to date. Wilson suffered a high-ankle sprain in right out of the gates in Week 1. Many players miss 4-6 weeks with high-ankle sprains, but Wilson decided to play through it. In Week 3, Wilson sprained his right MCL, and doctors told him he needed to sit out 4 weeks to recover from both of his injuries. Wilson decided, again, to play through it. In week 7, Wilson sustained a pectoral injury. Injuries affect every player differently, but in Wilson’s case, the injuries took away his secret weapons: play action, mobility to buy time in the pocket and scramble out of it, and the read-option. These are massive components to Russell Wilson’s game and a huge reason he wasn’t able to produce from a fantasy perspective. His lack of mobility proved to be particularly costly because it disabled from overcoming his pathetic offensive line. Throughout his career, Wilson’s ability to escape and quickly maneuver within the pocket to buy time has masked his O-lines deficiencies. When the injuries constrained his movement, his useless O-line became a huge problem he could no longer avoid. Moreover, the Seahawks could not get their running game going because Seattle relies on Wilson’s read-option to create space and open up lanes for its running backs that its miserable O-line cannot. In addition, Wilson’s rushing production took a substantial hit due to the aforementioned injuries. His 72 carries for 259 yards and 1 rushing TD were all career lows. By comparison, Wilson rushed 103 times for 553


yards in 2015. He had 6 rushing TDs in 2014. Wilson had never had fewer than 489 rushing yards in a season before last year. Without the threat of Wilson keeping the ball on the read-option, defenses rendered the running game mute. On top of this, Seattle could not find a reliable running back last season. Christine Michael was cut midway through the season after several ineffective weeks, and neither Thomas Rawls nor C.J. Prosise could stay healthy; both battling nagging injuries all season long. With no running game to speak of, Seattle struggled to move the ball on offense, resulting in a career low 21 passing TDs. Another reason for the low TD total (besides Wilson’s injuries) was the poor health of his supporting cast. Seattle’s most explosive WR and deep threat, Tyler Lockett, battled a knee injury he sustained in week 2, causing him to miss all or parts of games until week 13. Lockett broke his leg in Week 16, just three weeks after being declared fully healthy. Furthermore, TE Jimmy Graham was having his reps managed in games and barely even practiced last season because he was only one year removed from tearing his patella tendon. Somehow, despite all of this, Wilson still managed to finish as QB12 last season (albeit not on a per game basis), but he did earn the 5th highest PFF grade last year among QBs, showing he did what he could based on the circumstances. Going into this season, Tyler Lockett and Jimmy Graham are supposedly back to full health. Doug Baldwin is still the best slot WR in the NFL by far. Furthermore, the Seahawks decision to place WR Paul Richardson in the starting lineup over blocking specialist WR Jermaine Kearse is another positive for Wilson’s 2017 outlook. Richardson made some spectacular catches down the stretch last year and offers a much higher ceiling opposite Doug Baldwin than Kearse did. Wilson reportedly had the best offseason of his career, changing his entire diet in effort to stay quicker and healthier this coming season. And Wilson’s schedule opens up beautifully @gb, SF, ten, IND, and lar before a bye in week 6. In summary, following a down year in which injuries were solely to blame, Wilson is loaded with the best supporting cast of his career. He stands to return Top-3 status we saw when he was QB3 in 2014 and QB2 in 2015. The situation feels a lot like Cam Newton, circa 2015, when he had an MVP season following a down, injury-plagued 2014 season. This isn’t to say I think Russell Wilson will win MVP honors in 2017, but I wouldn’t rule it out, either. In all seriousness, Wilson is ranked QB5 by most mainstream websites. I have him as my QB3, behind Rodgers and Brady. His ADP is around Rounds 6-7, which I’m asserting will be a huge bargain. Wilson could be on the brick of exploding this season, and he’s one of my favorite picks in fantasy football. Michael Thomas (ADP: 13) – I realize Thomas broke out last season, but this is more of a claim for him to be higher in the rankings. Experts in fantasy community have cited Brees’ history of spreading the ball around (no Saints WR has ever had more than a 21% target share in a season with Brees) as justification for ranking as a mid-second round pick. I think they are overanalyzing the situation. Thomas didn’t begin playing full snaps until week 3, he missed a game and still finished as WR8 last season… as a rookie… WITH Brandin Cooks on the team. Cooks is gone now, leaving Michael Thomas as the primary wide out for Drew Brees, on a team that is forced to throw often because their defense stinks. My concerns about Thomas getting more defensive attention, facing teams’ top CBs without Cooks distracting opponents, are alleviated when I recall that defenses already started assigning their best cover man to Thomas toward the end of last season (he remained productive).


Moreover, it’s unlikely the Saints would ever feel comfortable trading a young, talented player like Cooks for the low cost of a 2nd round pick unless they were completely sold on Thomas’s ability to be “the #1 guy.” Even if you buy the narrative that Thomas’s targets won’t drastically increase following Cooks’ departure, Thomas still presents one of the safest, highest floors in all of fantasy football based on his talent and situation. There’s very little chance Thomas busts, barring injury. Because safety is my preferred philosophy in Rounds 1-2, Thomas is one of my favorite early picks this season. Jay Ajayi (ADP: 16) – Jay Ajayi is one of my favorite second round picks, which seems like an unpopular opinion in the industry. I'm acknowledging the massive injury risks, but I'm not going to try to predict someone's health when I think other runners listed around his ADP (McCoy, Gordon) are just as likely, if not more likely, to get injured based on the nature of the position. Ajayi is a pure workhorse RB, and it took Adam Gase a few games to realize that, but once he did, Ajayi was incredible. Nearly all of the metrics, be it PFF or elsewhere, show he awesome he was, though the box scores don't always do him justice. He led the NFL in broken tackles per carry and in yards after contact per carry. He ran behind an offensive line that was constantly shuffling players, dealing with a number of injuries. The key to the O-line was unquestionably Mike Pouncey. Pouncey played in only 5 games last season (weeks 5-10), and Jay Ajayi was significantly better in those contests. In the 5 games Pouncey played, Ajayi’s rushing line was an amazing 109-650-5 (5.9 YPC), and he ranked #1 in RB scoring during that span. After Pouncey got hurt, Ajayi’s rushing line dropped to 133-547-2 (4.1 YPC). No matter how you slice it, Ajayi was forced to play several games without 3 O-line starters - Pouncey (DNP weeks 11-17), Tunsil (DNP weeks 11-12), and Branden Albert (DNP weeks 4-5, 11-12). Imagine if he stayed healthy this season, and the Dolphins continued to feed Ajayi 20+ touches a game like they want to. Guys, the entire offense has been built around Ajayi. Once the Dolphins scrapped their dumb RBBC in favor of Ajayi in week 5, the Dolphins started throwing way less, started slowing down the pace of their games, and most importantly... THEY STARTED WINNING. Many people who point out Ajayi's difficult schedule this year AND that he only "had 3 good games" are failing to see the big picture. Look at his schedule last season: from week 5, onward, he faced the Jets twice (great run defense), Chargers, Ravens, Cardinals, Steelers, and Patriots. That's 7/11 games vs. top-15 run defenses per FO run defense DVOA, and 6/11 vs. Top-10. Moreover, all we've heard this offseason is confirming what we saw last season - that Ajayi will be this team's identity. The team has talked him up big time. He's prepping for a huge role. The Dolphins added one of the best blocking TEs in the NFL in Anthony Fasano. He's a 3-down back (wait and see how much he's improved his receiving skills, which were evident at Boise St). Too many people seem focused on his downsides, thinking of all the things that could go wrong, and they are ignoring the possibility that he might actually play 13-16 games and he might actually be very good at football (if last year is any indication, he definitely is). If his health permits, he could be this year's DeMarco Murray. Because of his upside and ON-FIELD safety (barring health, that is), I like Ajayi in the 9-12 overall range. Amari Cooper (ADP: 20) - Cooper is entering his third-year in the league and is just 23 years old. He finished as the WR17 in PPG last season, but his talent alone screams room for


growth. Positive touchdown regression is another reason I expect Cooper’s numbers to rise this season. Last season, Cooper scored 5 TDs, in part because he converted 0/13 red zone targets into TDs. This is unlikely to be repeated on its surface, but diving deeper into his game log validates last season as a fluke. In week 2, Cooper had a long touchdown called back because he stepped out of bounds on his catch-and-run at mid-field. In week 3, Derek Carr missed Cooper on a wide-open would-be 30-yard TD. In week 5 against the Chargers, Cooper arguably could have had FOUR touchdowns. One was ruled out of bounds because he only got one foot in bounds, one was called back because a defender pushed him out of the end zone prior to catching the pass. A third possible TD was called back due a holding penalty. In week 8, Cooper dropped a long TD. In week 14 against the Chiefs on MNF, Cooper let a would-be 72-yard TD go through his hands because he lost it in the lights. All of this is to say that things like this have a way of evening out every season, and the missed opportunities may turn into breaks that go his way in 2017. If so, watch out. Now that Michael Crabtree is 30 years old, this could be the year where Cooper breaks free of Crabtree’s red zone shadow. Dalvin Cook (ADP: 47) – I’m all aboard the Dalvin Cook hype train. Actually, I’ve been on it for two months, but alas, this is what happens when you draft after a few preseason games. Cook was originally expected to be a in committee with Latavius Murray, but Murray has taken forever recovering from a foot injury, leaving Cook to soak up all the first team reps throughout minicamp and training camp. That’s a mistake for Murray, who was signed BEFORE the Vikings knew they could get a RB talent like Cook in Round 2. Murray has name recognition among drafters because he was Oakland’s lead back last season. He finished as RB12 last season, but he was much lower in PPG ranks, and he was extremely inefficient in reality behind the second best offensive line in the NFL. Athletic on paper, Murray will likely be exposed for being a straight line runner with questionable vision and no receiving skillset whatsoever now that he’s downgrading from the Raiders’ dominant O-line to the Vikings’ unit, which is subpar at best. Bluntly, I don’t see Murray as much competition for touches, though I do concede he’s a real threat to steal Cook’s goal line work. This would sap some of Cook’s value, but not as much as you would think because Cook is going to make up for it in the passing game. Sam Bradford is the Check down King, and Pat Shurmur LOVES throwing to his RBs. I expect Cook to catch at least 50 passes as rookie, and he’ll get the bulk of the work elsewhere too, even if Murray is awarded goal line carries because of his size. Another thing going in Cook’s favor is that the Vikings have one of the easiest run defense schedules in the NFL, starting with a juicy matchup against the Saints. Cook’s ADP will unfortunately rise as more people catch on, but I view Cook as my favorite mid-round RB, and I’m willing to reach for him in the 3rd round of 12-team leagues, though ideally I can wait until the 4th. Travis Kelce (ADP: 48) – Many people you are drafting will bypass Kelce because he’s been a victim of his quarterback, Alex Smith. Kelce started slowly last season, but he was as dominant as we’ve ever seen a TE in the second half of 2016. From weeks 8-16 (the Chiefs rested starters in week 17), Kelce ranked second in receiving yards (INCLUDING WIDE RECEIVERS). His yardage totals Weeks 8-16: 101, 58, 21, 108, 101, 140, 101, 41, 160. This included three 100-yard games in the 4 contests Jeremy Maclin missed. Maclin is no longer with the


Chiefs. In the three seasons he’s been a pro, Kelce’s receptions have risen 67<72<85 and his receiving yards have risen 862<875<1,125. The knock on Kelce is that he doesn’t score touchdowns, but keep in mind that TDs tend to fluctuate more than any major statistic for pass catchers. Andy Reid admitted that he would like to get Kelce the ball more in the red zone this season, and Chiefs beat writers believe that the Chiefs decision to trade up to acquire Pat Mahomes in order to take over for Smith in 2018 has motivated Smith to play more aggressively. I like the sound of that. Despite Smith, Kelce is getting better every year and is squarely in his prime. If Kelce carries over his production from the second half of last season (remember: even catches and yardage goes down, his TDs could easily climb), then he would be a 2nd round value. Right now, his ESPN rank is 49. I’m willing to draft him in the late 20s, early 30s in PPR formats. Joe Mixon (ADP: 53) – Last August, many experts reasoned that “the Cowboys did not draft Ezekiel Elliot 4th overall not to use him.” I think the same logic can apply to Mixon: the Bengals did not draft a P.R. nightmare like Mixon to have him ride the bench. I realize Marvin Lewis is stubborn and lame and will probably give the early season nod to veterans like Jeremy Hill and Gio Bernard. Eventually, however, Mixon is going to get his opportunity to see the field regularly, and when he does, I’m betting he blows Hill and Bernard out of the water. Mixon would have been a legitimate top half of Round 1 pick in this year’s loaded RB class if not for being a complete idiot and punching a woman during his freshman year. Jeremy Hill has been worthless for two straight seasons, and Gio Bernard is coming off a torn ACL. Cincinnati annually ranks in the top 10 in rushing attempts for the season and in the red zone, so the opportunity will be there if he can seize it. The Bengals have a shoddy O-line, so Mixon will have to prove himself in pass protection first, but I’m expecting a sweet second half stretch for Mixon this season. The Mixon drafters will need to be patient, however, as the road to success could be rocky early on. I’m not reaching into the 40s for Mixon yet because his risks are apparent, but I do believe he’s one of the best RB options in the 45-70 range. Jordan Reed (ADP: 40) – Redskins TE Jordan Reed handled 8.8 targets per game (25 percent team target share) during the last two seasons – 24 games – in which he was on the field for more than half of the team's offensive plays, according to FootballDiehards.com. Believe it or not, Reed has scored more PPG than Gronk over the last two seasons. Reed has Gronk-lite upside – he could post 1,000 REYD and 10 TDs, and Gronk-lite downside – he’s one of the biggest injury risks in fantasy football, but at least he’s drafted two rounds later. There are three reasons I think Reed is worth the risk: 1) I think it’s important to grab a strong TE1 this year because the position is so thin; 2) Kirk Cousins lost both starting WRs, DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon, so his familiarity with Reed could be essential; and 3) Reed’s injury history is scaring everyone away to the point where he lasts until the 5th round in some drafts. I feel dirty listing him as a breakout candidate the last three seasons in a row in my Draft Guide because he’s going to erupt every year he can stay healthy. Kirk Cousins’ numbers tank dramatically when Reed is not on the field, proving Reed’s worth. Stefon Diggs (ADP: 61) – Stefon Diggs had an up-and-down 2016 season in which multiple


injuries hampered his consistency. He ranked as the PPR WR14 in PPG despite being hobbled (on the injury report) throughout about half of those games. His healthy splits look a lot better: Diggs averaged nine catches for 107 yards per game in 6 games he was not listed on the injury report. He’s not going to score more than 8 TDs this season, but he has big time room for growth in the TD department, as he converted only 1/12 targets in the red zone to TDs last season. Once Pat Shurmur took over as OC midway through last season, Diggs started playing the slot a lot more. This helps him avoid top-tier cornerbacks, but the Vikings actually have the easiest schedule vs. the pass in the NFL anyway. An underrated talent and one of the league’s premier route runners, Diggs has a chances to catch 100 passes and blow his ADP out of the water if he stays healthy. He’s worked on his conditioning all offseason with the goal to do just that. Isaiah Crowell (ADP: 38) – It’s natural to feel uneasy about spending your third round pick on a Cleveland Brown, but this entire offense will be designed around the Crow. The sad fact is that you can’t say that for very many RBs. Massive O-line improvements will mitigate box score impact of negative game scripts. Cleveland lost left guard Joel Bitonio for the season in Week 5. Before then, Crowell averaged 6.3 yards per carry on 15.3 carries per game in Weeks 1–4. After Bitonio went down, so too did Crowell’s efficiency. He averaged 2.5 yards per carry on 10.3 carries per game from Weeks 5-12. Bitonio is ready to go for 2017. In addition, the Browns signed center J.C. Tretter and RG Kevin Zeitler, giving them a Top 5 O-line, on paper at least. DeShone Kizer starting at QB could also help open this offense up. Crowell will also catch more passes now that the team is using Duke Johnson as more of a slot receiver. Crowell’s ADP is lower than his ranking on most websites, but I’m perfectly fine with drafting Crowell at cost… even though it goes against my philosophy to spend high picks on RBs who play with bad QBs. Nevertheless, every move the Browns made this offseason (as well as everything head coach and play caller Hue Jackson has said) seems to indicate Crowell will be the centerpiece of the offense this season. Jimmy Graham (ADP: TE7) – Now two years removed from tearing his patella tendon in his right knee, an injury that prohibited him from practicing for most of the season and forced the Seahawks to manage his snap count during games, Graham could be ready for lift off in 2017. Russell Wilson is healthy again, and Graham has been a top-4 TE in four of the past five seasons. He has a high, Top 3 TE ceiling and is being drafted in the 70-80 range of most drafts. I start looking for him right after the Greg Olsen / Jordan Reed tier. Doug Martin (ADP: 89) – His 3-game suspension keeps his ADP low (though it stands to rise after being featured on Hard Knocks), Martin has shown high-end RB1 production when motivated. Recall Martin was a second round pick last season (for most people at least; I had him on my Do Not Draft List). Martin has reportedly had a great offseason after an injury-marred 2016. Once his suspension is up, Martin could be one of the few bell cow backs playing for an ascending offense with an extremely favorable second half schedule down the stretch. Expect a slow start, but Martin, like Mixon, could be a great closer this season. His 8th-10th round draft cost is very affordable.


DeVante Parker (ADP: 100) – The Dolphins have talked Parker up all offseason, claiming he’s totally reformed his diet and practice habits. Parker has always been blessed with superb ability, and now Dolphins’ beat writers have been claiming to witness it this summer. Parker has the tools necessary to overtake Jarvis Landry as the #1 WR in this offense, and I think the Jay Cutler addition only helps his cause, as Cutler has shown a liking to bigger WRs like Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery in the past. OC Adam Gase has worked with Demaryius Thomas before, and the ‘Fins could use Parker similarly. I think a 70-1,100-9 season is within the range of reasonable outcomes.

ARIZONA CARDINALS QUICK HITS:

Overvalued: John Brown – Has WR2 upside if he can stay on the field, but should not be selected earlier than Round 10 until we get more clarification on his health (re: sickle-cell trait).

Undervalued: Carson Palmer – Finished as QB5 in 2015 but offense was out of rhythm with protection and WR issues last season. Finished strongly, was QB8 from weeks 8-17. Ranked as QB20 on ESPN.

Bold Prediction: David Johnson’s rushing efficiency declines, but he becomes only the third player in NFL history to record 1,000 yards rushing AND receiving in a single season.

OFFENSIVE LINE:

[LT D.J. Humphries, LG Mike Iupati, C A.Q. Shipley, RG Dorian Johnson, RT Jared Veldheer]

2016 Quality Starters: 2/5, Veldheer and Iupati.

2016 Starters’ Health: 53/80 Games Played, with Veldheer missing 8 games, Humphries missing 4, and all-pro RG Evan Mathis only playing in two games (he’s since retired).

2017 Returning Starters: 4/5, but only 2 are returning to the same position as last season. All-Pro guard Evan Mathis only played in two games, leaving a gaping hole at RG, which was not really filled this offseason despite Mathis’ retirement. LT Veldheer and RT Humphries are flipping positions because the team wants to groom Humphries as the team’s future blindside protector; he has not proven capable on either side yet, and I wouldn’t be surprised if this switch “doesn’t take.” Iupati is a good run blocker but also cannot pass protect well.

Fantasy Impact: This unit’s poor play contributed to the passing game’s downfall last season. The unit as a whole allowed the third most QB hits last season, forcing Palmer to contemplate retirement in the offseason. Beyond Palmer’s lack of mobility, this O-line is forced to protect longer than most, as Bruce Arians’ deep passing scheme often adds stress on his blockers. Despite this, Arizona did not upgrade the group during the offseason. An O-line collapse could signal the beginning of the end for Palmer, and David Johnson’s efficiency would suffer as a result.

GAME-LOGGING NUGGETS: “Arians wants DJ with more touches than Le'Veon – Not including an injury-shortened Week 17 last season, David Johnson's 24.2 touches per game and 88% snap rate trailed only LeVeon Bell. In March, ESPN reported Bruce Arians thinks Johnson is "too young to overuse" and wants to give him 30 touches per game in 2017.” – Chris Raybon Carson Palmer played much better football in the second half of the year, earning Pro Football Focus’ No. 4 overall passing grade from Weeks 8-17 with a 19-9 TD-to-INT ratio and QB8 fantasy production during that stretch. Arizona has a gorgeous Weeks 1-9 pass-defense schedule.


The Cardinals play just four top-10 games this year (Seahawks twice, Cowboys and Titans) and three of those four are at home. David Johnson averaged only 3.9 yards per carry in the last 8 games of the year. Larry Fitzgerald is a quick starter, slow finisher. He’s averaged 83.8 yards per game with 12 combined touchdowns over the first ten games of 2015-2016, he managed 46.9 yards per game with just three scores over those seasons’ final six weeks. Carson Palmer threw 11 touchdown passes over the final five weeks (one more than Tom Brady), and averaged 22.1 fantasy points per game. Starting Fast: Arizona opens up with DET, IND, DAL, SF.

ATLANTA FALCONS QUICK HITS:

Overvalued: Matt Ryan & Tevin Coleman – The two players most likely to regress following a historically great season. Coleman’s 11 TDs do not look sustainable. Ryan was QB3 last season but was not even a top-20 fantasy QB two seasons ago. I’m expecting to meet in the middle, but his QB4 price remains steep.

Undervalued: Austin Hooper – Ascending player in a good situation. Could carve out a nice role in the red zone and finish as a Top-12 TE. I also think Mohamed Sanu is worth a late grab in deeper PPR formats. He played hurt for most of last season, and he’s one Julio Jones injury away from being Ryan’s top target.

Bold Prediction: Julio Jones reaches double-digit TDs for the first time since 2012. OFFENSIVE LINE:

[LT Jake Matthews, LG Andy Levitre, C Alex Mack, RG Wes Schweitzer, RT Ryan Schraeder]

2016 Quality Starters: 3/5.

2016 Starters’ Health: 80/80 Games Played, with all 5 starters playing in 16 games.

2017 Returning Starters: 4/5.

Fantasy Impact: The Falcons had one of the best O-lines in the NFL last season, but a lot of that was due to PERFECT health across the board. This is extremely rare (I’ve never seen such a clean bill of health for an O-line since I’ve been tracking this), and most importantly, it’s a highly unlikely feat to be repeated in 2017. Natural health regression is one reason to expect ATL’s prolific offense to take a step back this season. While only one factor, this is a cause for concern for the Falcons’ running backs.

GAME-LOGGING NUGGETS: Julio Jones has 100-plus yards in 35 of 79 games played (44.3 percent). His touchdown-to-yards rate has been 0.43 percent over the last two years, which is just over half the 0.83 percent he posted in his first two seasons as a pro. The start of the Falcons’ schedule should be easy, as they play 4 of their first 5 games against bottom-10 opponents (Chicago, Detroit, Buffalo and Miami). It’s the 4th easiest schedule to start the season. But from Week 7 onward, they have the most difficult schedule in the NFL. Julio Jones’ 9 red-zone targets tied for 87th league-wide last year and ranked 6th on his own team. Not that he needs it, but Julio Jones has one of the best schedules among wide receivers in 2017. He plays the Saints twice in the fantasy playoffs, a team that he’s destroyed over the last three years. In the five games that he played and finished, Jones totaled 36 catches for 561 yards and a touchdown. His season should get off to a really big start when he plays the Bears, Packers, Lions, and Bills.


“Julio Jones seems to limp around the field more than any NFL player, but he has appeared in 45-of-48 games over the past three seasons and is firmly in his prime at age 28. Year over year, yards per route run is one of Pro Football Focus’ most predictive metrics. Julio has been a top-five performer in that statistic four straight years. Jones remains the NFL’s all-time leader in receiving yards per game (96.3), and new play caller Steve Sarkisian has pledged to increase Julio’s red-zone involvement. Despite leading the NFC in receiving yards (1,409) last year, Jones ranked 86th in the league in red-zone targets (9). Jones ranked tenth in red-zone targets (21) the season before, so his 2016 total seems fluky.” – Evan Silva “Not only did Tevin Coleman score almost four touchdowns over expectation in the red zone last season, he posted the highest overall touchdown rate (7.1%) of any running back over the last 10 seasons (minimum 150 opportunities). In that span, 30 running backs have posted a touchdown rate of at least 4.5% and saw at least 150 opportunities the following season, averaging a touchdown rate of just 3.4% the next year. No team in the last five seasons turned the ball over less than the 2016 Falcons, and 35% of Atlanta's drives ended in a touchdown -- up from 21% in 2015, and the highest touchdown rate since Peyton Manning's 2013 Broncos (37%).” – Ray Summerlin It’s hard to imagine a player that found the end zone 11 times from the red zone alone is a positive regression candidate, but Devonta Freeman saw the most red zone opportunities of any back in the league while ranking just sixth among all backs in red zone touchdowns.

BALTIMORE RAVENS QUICK HITS:

Overvalued: Mike Wallace – Still ranked 89th on ESPN, but should be closer to 150. Much more competition for targets (Woodhead, Maclin, Perriman) will render him a spotty week-to-week play at best.

Undervalued: None. Keep an eye on Joe Flacco’s health; Ryan Mallet being forced to make starts would render every Ravens’ skill player temporarily useless. Even if Flacco is ready, this team has major O-line concerns and lacks identity. The Ravens could struggle to move the ball in 2017.

Bold Prediction: Danny Woodhead and Jeremy Maclin may take a while to get going, but they are the only startable Ravens by mid-season.

OFFENSIVE LINE:

[LT Ronnie Stanley, LG James Hurst, C Jeremy Zuttah, RG Marshal Yanda, RT Austin Howard]


2016 Starters’ Health: 63/80 Games Played, including Stanley and Yanda missing 4 and 3 games, respectively.

2017 Returning Starters: 3/5, LG Alex Lewis was lost for the season in training camp, and he’ll likely be replaced by James Hurst. The Ravens signed below average RT Howard to fill in the big shoes of RT Ricky Wagner, who signed with Detroit. This is an obvious downgrade.

Fantasy Impact: While Baltimore has a few steady linemen - LT Stanley, C Zuttah, and RG Yanda – the team will be weaker at LG and RT, following the loss of Wagner. The Ravens have surprisingly led the NFL in pass attempts for the last seasons, but new offensive coordinator Greg Roman has been extremely run-heavy throughout his career, so I expect the Ravens to put an emphasis on running the ball IF their RBs are capable enough to justify it. Because this unit is merely average, expect plenty of short passes to Danny Woodhead and heavy tight end usage.

GAME-LOGGING NUGGETS:


Roman hire signals change to run-heavy philosophy. In six seasons as an offensive coordinator, Roman has never had an offense finish above 29th in pass attempts. In eight of John Harbaugh's nine seasons, Baltimore has finished top-10 in running back target rate, with an average ranking of 5.6 (of 32). Danny Woodhead's 6.3 targets per game with San Diego over the past two seasons would have ranked fourth among running backs last season, behind only LeVeon Bell, David Johnson, and Theo Riddick. “Danny Woodhead did play all 16 games in each of the 2015, 2013, and 2012 seasons, finishing as the PPR RB3, RB12, and RB23, respectively. Signed to a three-year, $8.8 million contract by the Ravens, Woodhead practiced without limitations at OTAs/minicamp and has a chance to earn a major passing-game role on a team that seems likely to struggle running the ball and has a league-high 345 available targets from last year. Most notably gone are TE Dennis Pitta (hip) and FB Kyle Juszczyk (49ers), who vacated 123 combined receptions in high-percentage dump-off roles for which Woodhead is now ticketed.” – Evan Silva The offseason has broken in favor of Terrence West, with the Ravens not adding a big back and Kenneth Dixon getting slapped with a four-game PEDs suspension that will keep him out the first month of the season. Coach John Harbaugh has said time and again he wants to get back to running the ball effectively, and the hiring of ex-Bills and 49ers OC Greg Roman suggests Harbaugh is serious. Roman’s offenses have routinely finished at or near the top of the league in rushing for years now, dating back to his time with John’s brother, Jim Harbaugh, in San Francisco.

BUFFALO BILLS QUICK HITS:

Overvalued: Tyrod Taylor – Losing Sammy Watkins is significant. Daunting schedule (@CAR, DEN, @ATL, @CIN, BYE, TB, OAK) weeks 2-8 could result in shaky job security for rebuilding Bills. Not a top-20 QB for me anymore.

Undervalued: Jonathan Williams – Should be drafted in all formats, particularly as a handcuff for McCoy owners. Shady is highly likely to miss games at some point.

Bold Prediction: LeSean McCoy fails to score more than 8 TDs, but his role as a pass catcher grows. He catches 65 passes for over 500 REYD. In a shocking turn of events, TE Charles Clay catches 7 TDs, which leads the team.

OFFENSIVE LINE:

[LT Cordy Glenn, LG Richie Incognito, C Eric Wood, RG John Miller, RT Dion Dawkins]


2016 Starters’ Health: 66/80 Games Played, with LT Glenn and C Wood missing 7 games each.

2017 Returning Starters: 4/5, rookie RT Dawkins takes over Jordan Mills, which should be a slight upgrade.

Fantasy Impact: The O-line is one of the few (only?) steady positional groups on the Bills’ roster. Last season, they were exceptional in the running game and held up fine in protection. However, new offensive coordinator Rick Dennison will implement a Shanahan-like zone-blocking system, which the O-line will have to adapt to. Also, keep an eye out on Cordy Glenn’s troublesome foot injury. Overall, this is an above average unit, but things could get dicey if Glenn is forced to miss time.

GAME-LOGGING NUGGETS: Buffalo can't be expected to match its league-leading 500.5 rushing attempts per season from the past two seasons. However, Rick Dennison has expressed the desire to increase LeSean McCoy's role as a receiver. Arian Foster averaged 4.5 targets per game when Dennison was Houston's offensive coordinator from 2010 to 2013; McCoy averaged 3.6 last season.


... but Shady is not as well-suited to the new rushing scheme – Dennison's outside-zone running scheme will carry over some concepts from the previous regime, but one change will be increased usage of a fullback—and in turn, more runs from under center—with the signing of DiMarco. The problem with that is McCoy averaged only 3.91 yards per carry on 114 under-center carries with Buffalo the last two seasons, more than a full yard lower than his 4.93 average taking handoffs out of the shotgun. Allowed freedom to dance in the previous scheme, McCoy averaged 4.94 yards per carry, including a career-high 5.41 last season, compared to 4.64 in six years in Philly. The new scheme will require McCoy to follow blockers more, which could expedite his inevitable negative regression in yards per carry.” – Chris Raybon Per Warren Sharp, in terms of Rush D efficiency of opponents, the Bills had the toughest last season. Re: Despite a tough run schedule, LeSean McCoy was still awesome. “While Buffalo may still indeed run the ball well in 2017, they do stand to see a reduction in scoring production from the ground. The Bills had 29 rushing TD in 2016, which not only led the NFL, but was the most in Buffalo’s franchise history and tied for the eighth most ever in a season. 39 teams have rushed for 25 scores in an NFL season since the 1970 merger prior to Buffalo reaching the total last year, with 36 of those teams scoring fewer times on the ground the following season. Those teams lost an average of 9.2 rushing touchdowns per season and the last time a team had as many rushing touchdowns as the Bills did last year was the 2008 Panthers, who scored 30 times on the ground, then came back to score 18 rushing touchdowns the following season.” – Ray Summerlin Re: LeSean McCoy TD regression. “Tyrod Taylor opens at home against the Jets, then faces Carolina, Denver, Atlanta, and Cincinnati before the Bills Week 6 bye, with only Denver coming at home. If the Bills are 1-4 after that stretch, a quarterback switch might be on the table during the bye.” – Sigmund Bloom After Week 1, the Bills have the most difficult schedule in the NFL. While there is not a bevy of hard opponents, they don’t have any non-Jets games which you would consider them to be a superior team to their opponent. “Since the beginning of 2015, only Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees have more games with at least 15-plus fantasy points than ... Tyrod Taylor.” – Matthew Berry Buffalo signed FB Patrick DiMarco, who earned Pro Football Focus’ No. 3 lead-blocking grade in front of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman in Atlanta last year. After averaging just over 2.0 yards after contact per attempt in 2014 and 2015, LeSean McCoy managed 2.42 yards after contact last year. He also scored at a touchdown to yards rate of 1.03 percent, which was triple his 2015 rate. Tyrod Taylor has averaged 26.4 more passing yards, 0.6 more passing touchdowns, and 1.3 more fantasy points per game with Sammy Watkins in the lineup.

CAROLINA PANTHERS QUICK HITS:

Overvalued: None. Most Panthers are undervalued this season because they are coming off a down 2016. I’m expecting an offensive rebound, in part due to an extremely favorable schedule.

Undervalued: Kelvin Benjamin – Sliding down draft boards because he showed up to mini camp looking fat, but quickness and separation have never been his game. Now two years removed from 2015 ACL that caused him to play slow last season, Benjamin has double-digit TD scoring upside as the clear-cut #1 WR on a team with a QB who trusts him and will play better this season.


Bold Prediction: Cam Newton takes advantage of schedule, best supporting cast he’s had since entering the league, finishes as QB5 behind Rodgers, Brady, Brees, and Wilson.

OFFENSIVE LINE:

[LT Matt Kalil, LG Andrew Norwell, C Ryan Kalil, RG Trai Turner, RT Taylor Moton]


2016 Starters’ Health: 60/80 Games Played, with LT Michael Oher missing most of last season, and Center Kalil missing 7 games.

2017 Returning Starters: 3/5, LT Matt Kalil replacing Michael Oher, and second round rookie Taylor Moton taking over at RT for Mike Remmers. At best, the replacements will be a slight improvement, but LT Kalil has never shown promise as a pro.

Fantasy Impact: Following an amazing 2015 season with near perfect O-line health, the 2016 Panthers were a perfect example of natural health regression on the O-line negatively affecting fantasy performances. Injuries to Oher and Kalil last season really hurt the running game’s efficiency and limited Newton’s time to throw. This season, I’m expecting some positive health regression here. The interior O-line is this team’s strength, but the liability at potentially both tackle spots may result in quick dump-offs to guys like Christian McCaffrey and Curtis Samuel.

GAME-LOGGING NUGGETS: “Jonathan Stewart logged 38 inside-the-10 carries in 26 games over the past two seasons after handling only 26 in 44 games during the four seasons prior. Last season was the first time in their respective careers that more inside-the-10 carries went to Stewart (20) than Newton (8).” – Chris Raybon “After Cam Newton set career lows in carries per game (6.0) and yards per carry (4.0) last season, Ron Rivera has stated he wants Newton to run even less in 2017. Even if Newton were to set career highs in pass-attempt volume and efficiency, running less would be bad news for his fantasy outlook. Newton averages 0.91 fantasy points per rush in his career, but just 0.43 fantasy points per pass.” – Chris Raybon From 2008 to 2015, Greg Olsen averaged 5.6 touchdowns per year. Last season, Olsen only had three receiving touchdowns. Cam Newton’s scramble rate dropped from 5.2 percent in 2015 to just 1.8 percent in 2016. Jonathan Stewart opens up with 49ers and Bills bad run defenses. Could be discount for hot start late in drafts. Cam Newton faces the 3rd easiest schedule of pass defenses after facing the 6th hardest in 2016. That’s the largest drop-off in pass defense difficulty for any team, per Warren Sharp. “From a rushing offense perspective, the Panthers not only face the NFL’s easiest schedule of run defenses, they also face the NFL’s easiest “rush blend” of defenses (a blend of rushing efficiency, rushing explosiveness, and RB target efficiency). It should be a fast start for the Panthers’ ground game, with their first two games against bottom-3 run defenses. And fortunately, during that difficult stretch for their passing offense from Weeks 6-10, they have the luxury of leaning on the run game with the 4th easiest “rush blend” of defenses in that span.” – Warren Sharp Re: Jonathan Stewart & Christian McCaffrey = easy schedule

CHICAGO BEARS QUICK HITS:


Overvalued: Jordan Howard – Losing game scripts resulting from poor QB play may diminish opportunity for RB reliant on rushing volume. Bears added scat backs to spell Howard on passing downs.

Undervalued: Kevin White – Cameron Meredith is a nice find who showed flashes in garbage time last season, but I’m not sure if he’ll transition well to an outside WR. Bears proactively forced targets to White last season (47 TAR in the 5 games he was active) to no avail. His pedigree makes him worth a late flier in drafts though.

Bold Prediction: The Bears start 1-7 due to a brutal opening stretch (ATL, @TB, PIT, @GB, MIN, @BAL, CAR, @NO). Mike Glennon is pulled for rookie QB Mitch Trubisky during the team’s week 9 BYE week.

OFFENSIVE LINE:

[LT Charles Leno, LG Kyle Long, C Cody Whitehair, RG Josh Sitton, RT Bobbie Massie]


2016 Starters’ Health: 64/80 Games Played, including 10 games missed by Kyle Long and 4 games missed by Josh Sitton.


Fantasy Impact: Chicago is stellar on the interior, which bodes well for Jordan Howard when the Bears run the ball. Although the OTs are shaky, both improved last season, and the result appears to be a fringe top-10 unit. This unit’s prowess may enable Jordan Howard to amass fantasy production even if defenses are keying in on him… that is as long as the QBs can pose a decent threat.

GAME-LOGGING NUGGETS: “Meredith couldn't get loose without Alshon – With Alshon Jeffery and his 14.3-yard average target distance gone, Loggains will transition to a higher-percentage West Coast scheme featuring Cameron Meredith (10.2). Lost in Meredith's breakout season was a concerning downward trend in production when Jeffery wasn't soaking up defensive attention. From the time he became a full-time player in Week 3, Meredith suffered dips in targets per game (8.3 to 6.0), yards per target (9.8 to 8.3), and catch rate (70% to 60%) with Jeffery out.” – Sigmund Bloom Jordan Howard had a RB-high eight drops on only 46 targets and a passing-game grade ranked 57th of 58 qualifiers. Jordan Howard averaged 5.7 YPC in 8 games vs. bottom-16 run defenses last year. He averaged 4.2 YPC in 5 starts against top 16 units. Chicago has a horrifically challenging first-half schedule, as each of their first six opponents went 8-8 or better last season. Just two of the Bears’ first ten opponents failed to reach .500, outliers being the dangerous Panthers and Saints. As Chicago is likely to pile up losses in September-November, it would be an upset if we didn’t see Trubisky by December. Jordan Howard caught only 24 passes in his three-year college career and never projected as much of a receiving threat to begin with. Howard’s yards-per-carry average dipped to 3.36 against eight-man boxes (Next Gen Stats), which he’s likely to see far more often this season in a slow-paced, low-scoring offense. Howard also lacks a clear handcuff. One concern is Cam Meredith’s expected transition from a majority slot man to full-time perimeter wide out, where Meredith averaged just 1.93 yards of separation (Next Gen Stats) compared to a robust 2.89 separation yards on interior routes. Another concern is Chicago’s quarterback uncertainty, and yet another is a thumb injury sidelining Meredith until training camp.

CINCINNATI BENGALS


QUICK HITS:

Overvalued: Gio Bernard & Jeremy Hill – They may have some decent games early in the season, but they are lame ducks in this backfield. We should seek upside in the later rounds.

Undervalued: None.

Bold Prediction: Joe Mixon gets off to a slow start as Marvin Lewis is stubborn to take his future star rookie out of a mind-numbing 3-way RBBC, but patience pays off as Mixon proves to be the only Bengal RB who can create his own yardage behind a weak O-line. Mixon leads a late season surge, similar to the way Jeremy Hill did in 2014 in the second half of his rookie year.

OFFENSIVE LINE:

[LT Cedric Ogbuehi, LG Clint Boling, C Russell Bodine, RG Trey Hopkins, RT Jake Fisher]


2016 Starters’ Health: 74/80 Games Played, with all 5 starters playing in at least 12 games.

2017 Returning Starters: 2/5, with Pro Bowlers LT Andrew Whitworth and RG Kevin Zeitler departing in free agency and being replaced by so-far draft bust Jake Fisher and the untested Trey Hopkins.

Fantasy Impact: The Bengals have had one of the best O-lines in the NFL for the past five years, but it’s looking quite ugly this season. Cincinnati attempted to prepare for life without LT Andrew Whitworth by drafting Ogbuehi and Fisher in the first two rounds of the 2015 NFL Draft. However, neither have proven to be even decent starters, which could pose huge problems for QB Andy Dalton – who tends to get skittish whenever he’s pressured. Accordingly, expect opposing teams to blitz Dalton early and often in 2017 to test whether this unit can hold up. Losing Zeitler and Whitworth also hurt in the running game, and whoever is in the backfield for the Bengals will have to show the ability to make defenders miss (in sum, Jeremy Hill won’t last long as the starter). While it’s safe to assume A.J. Green and Tyler Eifert will finish the season with solid numbers, one can make a good argument why this bottom-5 O-line lowers the ceiling of Joe Mixon and will hinder Andy Dalton’s ability to throw deep passes, resulting in week-to-week inconsistency.

GAME-LOGGING NUGGETS: Joe Mixon’s new team, the Bengals, have ranked among the top 9 in total rushing attempts in 4 straight seasons and among the top 7 in rushing TDs in 3 straight years. Over the last five seasons, Andy Dalton finished 26th, 3rd, 26th, 37th, and 25th in passer rating when pressured. A.J. Green averaged 7.3 catches, 107.1 yards and .44 TDs in 9 full games last year — a full-season pace of 117 catches, 1,714 yards and 7 TDs Andy Dalton was the #13 quarterback or better in six of eight starts with AJ Green from beginning to end. He only had a healthy Green and Tyler Eifert for two games. Joe Mixon averaged an otherworldly 13.8 yards per catch in two years at Oklahoma and logged Pro Day measurables superior to Ezekiel Elliott’s at nearly the exact same size. In per-game scoring, AJ Green has finished as a top-five PPR receiver three times in the past five seasons and has never ranked below WR14 in that span. Beginning with most recent, Green has ranked second, fourth, first, seventh, and seventh in Pro Football Focus’ predictive yards-per-route-run metric over the past half decade. – Evan Silva Andy Dalton is a prime positive-regression candidate after posting a career-low 3.2% touchdown rate in 2016, nearly two full percentage points lower than Dalton’s previous career TD rate. A top-seven fantasy passer in per-game scoring in two of the last four years and a top-12 finisher in three of the last five.


Cincinnati running backs accounted for 2.5 catches per game when both Tyler Eifert and AJ Green were healthy and 5.1 when one or both was limited or out. The Bengals have ranked top ten in the NFL in both rushing attempts and red-zone carries in each of the past three seasons.

CLEVELAND BROWNS QUICK HITS:

Overvalued: Corey Coleman – Kenny Britt was brought in to be this team’s leading WR. It’s unlikely the Browns get the QB play required to support more than one pass catcher.

Undervalued: Isaiah Crowell – It’s natural to feel uneasy about spending your third round pick on a Cleveland Brown, but this entire offense will be designed around the Crow. The sad fact is that you can’t say that for very many RBs. Massive O-line improvements (see below) will mitigate box score impact of negative game scripts.

Bold Prediction: Isaiah Crowell finishes with over 1,000 RUYD and Kenny Britt over 1,000 REYD, becoming weekly starters once DeShone Kizer takes over the reigns.

OFFENSIVE LINE:

[LT Joe Thomas, LG Joel Bitonio, C J.C. Tretter, RG Kevin Zeitler, RT Shon Coleman]


2016 Starters’ Health: 61/80 Games Played, with LG Bitonio missing 11 games.

2017 Returning Starters: 2/5. The Browns spent top dollar to land RG Zeitler and C Tretter to improve O-line.

Fantasy Impact: The healthy return of LG Joel Bitonio (missed weeks 6-17 last season) alone will be a big boost to the Browns’ running game, as his absence directly correlated with Isaiah Crowell’s dramatic decline in YPC after the first 5 games. Combine his return with the addition of two Pro Bowl caliber interior linemen (Zeitler, Tretter), to go along with stalwart Joe Thomas, and we have the makings of a top-3 offensive in the NFL. While the Browns’ losing ways will sober Crowell’s upside, Hue Jackson’s commitment to running behind this stellar O-line will be the team’s identity, helping mitigate the box score impact of negative game scripts. Quality O-line play could also be a reason DeShone Kizer is allowed to play sooner, but bear in mind that no O-line is good enough to make Brock Osweiler a competent QB.

GAME-LOGGING NUGGETS: Isaiah Crowell averaged 6.3 yards per carry on 15.3 carries per game in Weeks 1–4, but sank to 2.5 yards per carry on 10.3 carries per game from Week 5—when guard Joel Bitonio went down with a season-ending injury—to Week 12. Hue Jackson alluded to Duke Johnson spending time in the wide receiver room and word out of camp is he's practiced in the slot. “While Hue Jackson has stated he'd like Corey Coleman to assert himself as the No. 1 receiver, the front office gave Kenny Britt more money and years than Terrelle Pryor, Cleveland's No. 1 receiver last year, commanded on the open market. In the 10 games he spent active, Coleman averaged 7.3 targets per game to Pryor's 8.8.” – Chris Raybon


Despite winning a single game, the Browns backfield produced the 14th-most fantasy points last season. Isaiah Crowell finished just outside the top-12 fantasy running backs (14th) while accruing the 33rd-most handoffs and zero touchdowns during fourth quarters. It started prior to the 2016 season, when Hue Jackson was brought in to be the Browns head coach. Over his previous four seasons with the Bengals, Jackson’s offenses ranked top-seven in rushing attempts and rushing touchdowns every year. Re: Isaiah Crowell Isaiah Crowell failed to record more than 44 rushing yards in half of his games. Not just that, but 47.5 percent of his rushing totals came on just 16 of his 198 carries. 194 of his 952 yards came on just three carries. On the other 195 carries he totaled just 3.89 yards per carry. Most don’t know that Isaiah Crowell totaled 49 targets over the last 13 games, which ranked among the top-12 running backs in all of football. Twenty-three of Duke Johnson’s 53 receptions came when the Browns were down by nine or more points compared to only 11 of Isaiah Crowell’s 40. Isaiah Crowell averaged an impressive 4.8 yards per carry last season, but a whopping 37 percent of his total rushing yardage came on just five percent of his carries. In 177 career rushing attempts, Duke Johnson has just one touchdown. Hue Jackson admitted to regretting not giving Isaiah Crowell more carries last season.

DALLAS COWBOYS

QUICK HITS:

Overvalued: None, believe it or not (considering it’s the Dallas Cowboys). All of their players seem priced about right, in my opinion.

Undervalued: Ezekiel Elliot – In my professional legal opinion (which isn’t worth much despite my occupation as an attorney), I think Elliot’s suspension is likely to either be reduced to 4 games OR postponed until the 2018 season. Most mainstream websites have moved him to around 30th overall. Acknowledging the risk for more, I’m nevertheless OK with taking him between picks 18-24, especially if you play in a league you are likely to make the postseason in, anyway (for instance, a 6-team playoff in a 10 or 12 team league). If you select Zeke, you’re expecting him to be a closer; if you think you’ll make the playoffs in your league anyway, then I would actually encourage grabbing Zeke in Round 2.

Bold Prediction: Dez Bryant stays healthy and scores double-digit TDs, but Cole Beasley leads the team in receptions due to Bryant’s extremely difficult slate of CB matchups.

OFFENSIVE LINE:

[LT Tyron Smith, LG Chaz Green, C Travis Frederick, RG Zack Martin, RT La’el Collins]



2017 Returning Starters: 3/5, with RT La’el Collins replacing Doug Free (retirement) and LG Chaz Green replacing Ronald Leary, who was signed by Denver in free agency.

Fantasy Impact: The Cowboys’ O-line was absolutely dominant last season, and the unit was also able to stay relatively healthy. It remains to be seen whether La’el Collins can adequately replace Doug Free. More worrisome is who fills in for left guard, as the camp battle winner of Jonathan Cooper or Chaz Green likely won’t match the play of Leary last season. It’s safe to expect regression from the group this season, if for no other reasons than the lack of continuity, drop-off in talent, and more difficult schedule. While no


longer the league’s best O-line, is a top-8 unit on paper as long as La’el Collins shows competence. I believe he will.

GAME-LOGGING NUGGETS: Coaches want to get Ezekiel Elliot more receptions. OC Scott Linehan was the coordinator of the Rams’ back in the days of Steven Jackson, who would catch 50+ passes annually and even had a 90-catch year. With former third-down back Lance Dunbar gone, running backs coach Gary Brown said the Cowboys "absolutely" want to get Ezekiel Elliott more involved as a receiver. “Dak has untapped upside – Dak Prescott finished as the No. 6 QB in fantasy last season despite ultra-conservative play-calling tendencies. Prescott not only had to overcome an offense ranked in the bottom-three in situation-neutral pace and pass-play rate, but also one ranked 26th in red zone pass-play rate and rate of pass attempts 16+ yards downfield.” – Chris Raybon “While Dak’s run-pass efficiency will be tough to repeat, more passing volume is likely with a far tougher schedule and sub-par defense the Cowboys will continue to have to compensate for. Only Matt Ryan, Tom Brady, and Kirk Cousins averaged more yards per pass attempt (8.0). Only Ryan and Brady posted higher passer ratings (104.9). No quarterbacks scored more touchdowns on the ground (6). Dak looked like a young Donovan McNabb. Prescott indeed flashed big-time vertical passing ability by posting the NFL’s sixth-best QB rating (117.0) on 20-plus-yard throws, although Dak finished just 22nd in completions over 20-plus yards (17) because the run-first Cowboys only needed him to attempt the 27th most (43).” – Evan Silva Dez Bryant posted a combined 48/778/16.2/9 receiving line over their final ten full games together, good for an 18.0 PPR points-per-game average, which would have made Bryant last year’s WR7 in per-game scoring. Prescott and Bryant enter 2017 having hooked up for ten touchdowns over their last 11 full games. One of the underrated points of the Dez Bryant & Dak Prescott success last year was the fact that they did it while averaging the third-fewest pass attempts (30.6 attempts/game) in the league. “It’s a concern because the Cowboys schedule is littered with shutdown cornerbacks, as he’ll see Janoris Jenkins twice, Josh Norman twice, Aqib Talib/Chris Harris Jr., Patrick Peterson, Marcus Peters, Desmond Trufant, Jason Verrett/Casey Hayward, and Richard Sherman. That amounts to 10 games with a brutal matchup.” – Mike Clay Re: Dez Bryant tough CB schedule “The Cowboys had the 2nd best EDSR offense of 2016 and ranked 3rd in pass efficiency. They will be tested more in 2017, facing a far tougher schedule of pass defenses. It starts right away, with their first 3 games coming against top-4 pass defenses, including the Giants, Broncos and Cardinals (the last two are on the road). But after that, the schedule becomes manageable.” – Warren Sharp Scott Linehan has a history of producing elite WR1s in fantasy football, whether it was Torry Holt with the Rams, Randy Moss with the Vikings, Calvin Johnson with the Lions, and recently Dez Bryant. Re: Scott Linehan great for Dez Bryant “Cole Beasley could improve on his 75-catch season – Since Scott Linehan's arrival, Dallas has ranked in the bottom-three in pace every year, and in the bottom-three in pass-play rate in two-of-three years. Odds makers are forecasting a 3.5-win drop-off for Dallas, which could make replicating last year's league-low 50.6% pass-play rate difficult. An increase in pass attempts would help Cole Beasley build on last year's 75 catches; he was targeted 32.8% more when Dallas was trailing or tied.” – Chris Raybon

DENVER BRONCOS


QUICK HITS:

Overvalued: Demaryius Thomas – I HATE calling Thomas overvalued, because I think he’s an extremely underrated talent (five straight 1,000-yard seasons), and he battled a hip injury last season. However, I have a tough time justifying his ADP in the top-20 overall with Trevor Siemien and/or Paxton Lynch throwing him passes. I would be all over DT if his ADP was closer to Sanders’.

Undervalued: None – Again, I think erratic QB play will limit the upside of the Denver offense. Furthermore, this running game screams RBBC. The only thing I’m confident in about this running game is that C.J. Anderson (for however long he is actually healthy) will be used a lot as a pass catcher in Mike McCoy’s offense. Still, he should split the work on the ground seeing as he’s never shown the ability to carry the load.

Bold Prediction: Denver finishes last in the AFC West, and neither C.J. Anderson nor Jamaal Charles lead the Broncos in rushing yards.

OFFENSIVE LINE:

[LT Garett Bolles, LG Max Garcia, C Matt Paradis, RG Ronald Leary, RT Menelik Watson]


2016 Starters’ Health: 76/80 Games Played.

2017 Returning Starters: 2/5, with rookie LT Bolles taking over for the departed Russell Okung, and newly acquired Ronald Leary and Menelik Watson becoming starters at RG and RT, respectively. The right side of the Broncos’ O-line last season was dreadful, but I’m not positive Watson is a major upgrade. I was a fan of Bolles as a prospect and think he has significant upside as a pro, but will he an immediate upgrade compared to Russell Okung? This OT tandem is sketchy, but the Broncos did do a good job of upgrading the interior with the addition of Cowboys’ starter Ronald Leary. Allen Barbre may win the starting LG job over Max Garcia. Paradis is one of the game’s best centers.

Fantasy Impact: This unit should be better than last season’s debacle, but they aren’t quite there yet. Look for OC Mike McCoy to focus on short passes (especially if Trevor Siemien wins the starting QB job over Paxton Lynch) and expect more bubble screens to Demaryius Thomas and dump offs to RB C.J. Anderson to hide a group that is lacking in pass protection ability.

GAME-LOGGING NUGGETS: In late-July, Sports Illustrated's MMQB reported McCoy wants to limit Jamaal Charles to 8–10 touches per game. C.J. Anderson topped 3.7 yards per carry in just 2 of 7 games last year. Emmanuel Sanders averaged 10.3 targets in games with Paxton Lynch in 2016. “Broncos play caller Mike McCoy, who coordinated Denver’s offense in Demaryius Thomas’ breakout 2012 campaign (94/1,434/15.3/10) before taking the Chargers’ head-coaching job. The Broncos’ chances of fielding a functional running game are slim considering their makeshift offensive line and brutally difficult run-defense schedule. While perhaps not a league-winning, high-upside pick, Thomas has been a 90-plus-catch receiver in five straight years with zero missed games during that span and offers security at his WR15 (Over the past three seasons, only Antonio Brown (528) has seen more raw targets than Thomas (505).” – Evan Silva “Factors working against C.J. Anderson are shaky job security, sub-par run blocking, and a schedule Rotoworld SOS analyst Warren Sharp has rated toughest in the NFL. Benefiting Anderson is his relatively high-priced contract, strong pre-2016 efficiency, and the numerous flaws of his backfield foes.” – Evan Silva “This season, Denver plays four games against top-5 opponents (teams projected to win the most games this year). Only one team plays more top-5 games (Chiefs). The Broncos play six top-10 games (only the Dolphins play more top-10 teams). Denver’s seven games post-bye week are brutal when factoring in travel.” – Warren Sharp


“Over the past three seasons, among 28 running backs with at least 400 attempts, C.J. Anderson ranks top-six in yards per carry, touchdowns per carry, yards after contact per attempt, and forced missed tackles per attempt.” – Scott Barrett

DETROIT LIONS QUICK HITS:

Overvalued: Theo Riddick – Riddick may be an excellent 3rd down back and excellent check down option for Stafford, but he has never been effective running the ball, rendering him useless in non-PPR formats. Riddick is not a good bet for touchdowns, and if we see Ameer Abdullah creep into his pass catching role, his value will plummet. With Marvin Jones, Golden Tate, Kenny Golladay, Eric Ebron, and Abdullah, there are a lot of mouths to feed in this passing game. I would rather wait a few rounds for passing down backs in similar niche roles.

Undervalued: Ameer Abdullah – I get it, he has Theo Riddick stealing receptions and Zach Zenner stealing goal line carries. Still, I can’t ignore Abdullah’s athleticism, and the team seems to be committed to him as the lead back. If Theo Riddick were to go down, we’re looking at a top-12 RB going near Round 10.

Bold Prediction: Ameer Abdullah reaches 1,000 yards rushing. Sans Anquan Boldin, TE Eric Ebron finally breaks into the Top-12 TEs with a semi-breakout 65-900-5 receiving line.

OFFENSIVE LINE:

[LT Greg Robinson, LG Laken Tomlinson, C Travis Swanson, RG T.J. Lang, RT Ricky Wagner]


2016 Starters’ Health: 68/80 Games Played, Swanson and Tomlinson combining to miss 9 games.

2017 Returning Starters: 2.5/5, with LT Taylor Decker expected to miss the first half of the season with an injury. The unit will be receive a significant upgrade if/when he returns to full strength. In the meantime, the Lions will likely rotate terrible fill-ins on the blindside. The right side of this unit was upgraded this offseason, substituting Larry Warford with RG T.J. Lang and Riley Reiff with RT Ricky Wagner.

Fantasy Impact: This unit could very well have 4/5 Quality Starters if/when LT Taylor Decker is able to return to full strength (midseason?), but until then, Stafford will have to have a keen internal clock. The Lions should have success running right this season, but if I had to guess, this unit may not reach its full, top-5 potential until 2018. Until Decker returns, Detroit merely sports an average O-line.

GAME-LOGGING NUGGETS: After week 4, the Lions averaged only 60.5 plays (second-fewest) as they attempted to hide a defense that graded second-worst. The Lions could easily be worse than in 2016, when they won nine games despite a negative-12-point differential. Their schedule is harder, they’re early underdogs in nine games, and they lost all three contests against playoff teams by a double-digit point margin. “Marvin Jones worked with Randy Moss in the offseason, has big goals in 2017 after being very disappointed in his first year with the Lions. After a dominant start to the season, it’s possible injuries were the reason Jones’ faded. If so, it represents value to be had very late in drafts.” – Michael Renner “In seven of his final 10 games last season, Matthew Stafford had zero or one touchdown passes. In his past 16 outdoor games, Stafford has averaged just 15.4 fantasy points a game, or what would have been QB21 last season.” – Matthew Berry


It should be noted that Tate benefited from Theo Riddick’s six-game absence with an average of 10.3 targets versus 7.3 targets per game with Riddick active. “Anquan Boldin’s departure is expected to kick Golden Tate back into the slot, where his quicks and run-after-catch skills are best highlighted and Tate can rack up high-percentage receptions against what is typically the defense’s weakest corner. Per Next Gen Stats, Tate averaged 3.48 yards of separation on slot routes last season, versus just 2.34 separation yards outside. Tate is a high-floor investment at WR24.” – Evan Silva “Boosting Eric Ebron’s scoring outlook considerably is the departure of Anquan Boldin, who dwarfed Ebron in red-zone targets (22 to 6) and targets inside the ten-yard line (9 to 3).” – Evan Silva Last season, Golden Tate finished as WR23 but was WR10 after week 5. Detroit opens with Arizona, at the Giants, Atlanta, at Minnesota, and Carolina. Their offense could get off to a slow start.

GREEN BAY PACKERS QUICK HITS:

Overvalued: Ty Montgomery – Health risk, has done nothing to show he can handle a running back’s workload. Reached 10 rushing attempts in a game only ONCE last season. His only great rushing game last season came against a hapless Bears’ defense missing half of its starting front-7. Packers drafted 3 RBs to compete. Can he block? Should be useful as a real-life player, but way too many question marks and not proven enough to warrant selection in Rounds 1-4.

Undervalued: Aaron Rodgers – Ranked in the 40s, but worth grabbing regardless of format in Round 3. Adding TE Martellus Bennett to arsenal increases chances of a second straight 40+ TD season.

Bold Prediction: The Packers continue to use Ty Montgomery as a receiver out of the backfield but do not typically give him more than 10 rushing attempts a game because he cannot stay healthy on an enhanced workload. He splits touches nearly evenly with Jamaal Williams.

OFFENSIVE LINE:

[LT David Bakhtiari, LG Lane Taylor, C Corey Linsley, RG Jahri Evans, RT Bryan Bulaga]


2016 Starters’ Health: 70/80 Games Played, with Tretter missing 7 games.

2017 Returning Starters: 4/5, losing RG T.J. Lang to division rival Detroit one year after losing LG Josh Sitton to Chicago, another division rival. Predictably, the Packers have a below average pair of guards. However, Green Bay has an excellent tackle tandem, particularly in pass protection. The Packers do lack depth compared to prior seasons.

Fantasy Impact: As long as Bak and Bulaga can stay upright, Rodgers likely won’t be in jeopardy because his mobility and pocket presence can coax better O-line performance. This group is exceedingly better in pass protection than run blocking, but this is mitigated by most frequent opportunity for running backs to face fewer defenders in the box (also due to Rodgers).

GAME-LOGGING NUGGETS: “Aaron Rodgers was far and away the #1 fantasy quarterback after the Packers centered the offense around him vs. the Bears in Week 7. His finishes were #3, #2, #2, #2, #1, #6, #13, #3, #16, #1.” – Sigmund Bloom The Packers are favored in 12 of their 15 lined games.


“Despite the struggles that the Packers had at the running back position last year, can you guess how many games Ty Montgomery had double-digit carries? One. It came against the Bears in Week 15 when they were missing over half of their front-seven on defense. In fact, if you were to remove the Bears games from Montgomery’s 2016, it’d look completely different. 2 games vs Bears = 25-222-2 (8.8 YPC, 40.9 FP). 11 others = 52-235-1 (4.52, 55.6)” – Christi Webb Jordy Nelson has been a top-12 fantasy WR1 in each of his last four full seasons, including three top-two finishes. “Rodgers dragged molasses-slow Richard Rodgers to a top-eight fantasy finish in 2015, while Jared Cook exploded in January’s playoffs on a team-high 32 targets across three games. The 2017 Packers have the NFL’s fourth-softest tight end schedule based on 2016 fantasy points allowed, while Martellus Bennett should be a prime red-zone target for the NFL’s most talented passer.” – Evan Silva “Including the Wild Card and Divisional Rounds, Ty Montgomery spent 12 weeks at tailback and emerged with stat lines of 94/525/5.59/5 rushing and 43/325/7.56/0 receiving, averaging 70.8 total yards and 4.6 targets per game, box-score results that would have made him last year’s RB18 in per-game PPR points. Pro Football Focus charted Montgomery as the NFL’s most elusive running back from Week 7 on.” – Evan Silva Aaron Rodgers has finished 7 of his 8 full starting seasons among fantasy’s top 2 QBs. Jordy Nelson has the same profile as wide receivers going a half-round or more ahead of him, although more targets to the middle of the field and the introduction of Bennett in the red zone could lower his ceiling. Davante Adams is also a regression candidate if Martellus Bennett contributes and Cobb stays healthy, with five of his seven 15+ point games coming after Cobb got hurt. – Rachel Wood Like Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers has some hidden upside with a better set of weapons (include Ty Montgomery’s development in that picture) for most of 2017 than he had at any point in 2016. Davante Adams had 9 drops last season (including 6 dropped TDs). This stat can be spun negatively or positively. I lean toward the latter. Cut Davante Adams’ touchdown output roughly in half, and he’d have had six scores, roughly 135 points, and would barely be a top-20 receiver. Jordy Nelson led the NFL in red zone targets with 29 in 2016. Martellus Bennett played in all 16 games and had 55 catches despite having broken bone spurs in his ankle.

HOUSTON TEXANS QUICK HITS:

Overvalued: DeAndre Hopkins – Drafting Hopkins is also drafting Tom Savage / Deshaun Watson. A bounce-back season is already priced into his ADP.

Undervalued: Lamar Miller – I wouldn’t go as far to say he’s undervalued at pick 24 overall, but I’ve seen him fall to close to the 30s in drafts, and his situation hasn’t changed much from one year ago when he was a late first round pick. Miller is a not a sexy pick, and he’s not on my Small Board, but he’s highly unlikely to bust, and I’m OK with taking him if he slips. While D’Onta Foreman’s role is expected to grow as the season progresses, I do not think he’s close to jeopardizing Miller’s primary back status. Regardless, the Texans have ranked first in rushing attempts since Bill O’Brien became Houston’s coach three seasons


ago, so there’s room for both to get carries. Houston is going to run the ball, and I’d bet they know how to utilize Miller more effectively this season. The center of this conservative offense, Miller has more upside if Deshaun Watson is the starter, but I would keep an eye on handcuffing Miller with Foreman late, as I cryptically believe Miller may be due for an injury after the Texans overworked him last season.

Bold Prediction: Tom Savage starts 1-4 with a tough opening slate (JAX, @CIN, @NE, TEN, KC), and Deshaun Watson takes over in week 6. Watson helps open up the running game, as the read-option between he, Lamar Miller, and D’Onta Foreman becomes the offense’s identity going forward. The Texans’ plan of decreasing Miller’s workload to make him more effective works, but Foreman becomes a problem near the goal line later in the season.

OFFENSIVE LINE:

[LT Duane Brown, LG Xavier Su’a-Filo, C Nick Martin, RG Jeff Allen, RT Breno Giacomini]


2016 Starters’ Health: 63/80 Games Played, with RT Derek Newton missing 11 games and LT Duane Brown missing 4 games.

2017 Returning Starters: 2/5, with Nick Martin, who was on IR for all of 2016, set to start at center in place of Greg Mancz, who filled in admirably. RT Derek Newton is out for the 2017 season, and we’ll likely see a committee attempting to fill in for his large shoes. OGs Su’a-Filo and Allen return but will have to play much better. This will likely be a bottom-10 unit again.

Fantasy Impact: Losing RT Derek Newton really hurt this team in the running game, and the team did not do much to replace him. It’s probable we’ll see a bounce-back season from Allen. A lot is riding on Nick Martin to be as good as advertised. The Texans are expected to remain near the league lead in rushing attempts, but improvement from this unit is necessary for any resemblance of offensive efficiency.

GAME-LOGGING NUGGETS: “Bill O'Brien wants to scale back Lamar Miller's workload – Since O'Brien took over, only two teams have given a running back 20+ touches in more games than the Texans (29). But after Lamar Miller ranked sixth in the league in touches per game (21.4) last season, O'Brien said he wants to cut down Miller's workload to keep him fresh late in the year. Houston has averaged the seventh-fewest targets to running backs per season (91.3) since O'Brien took over. Miller had a career-low reception-to-rush ratio of 0.116-to-1 last season.” – Chris Raybon “Lamar Miller had a significantly higher yards per carry (4.3 vs 3.5) yards per catch (7.5 vs 4.3) more total touchdowns (5 vs 1) in the Texans eight wins that he played in than in the six losses.” – Rich Hribar “Lamar Miller averaged 4.1 yards per carry on his first 10 attempts of games. That dropped to 3.9 on carries 11 through 20 and down to 2.6 on carries 21 through 30.” – Draft Sharks “Lamar Miller’s lead back job should stay secure in an offense that added a dual-threat quarterback and has ranked top six in rushing attempts in each of Bill O’Brien’s three years as coach. A borderline first-round fantasy pick last fall, Miller now typically lasts until the third round.” – Evan Silva “Since exploding for silly averages of 13.5 targets and 104.5 yards per game over the first ten weeks of 2015, DeAndre Hopkins has crashed back to Earth with 9.5-target and 65.2-yard averages over his last 25 games, including the playoffs. Hopkins scored nine touchdowns in that ten-week sample to begin the 2015 season. He’s scored just seven times in the 25 games since.” – Evan Silva

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS QUICK HITS:


Overvalued: All Colts - Pretty much everyone on this offense is being over-drafted. We still have no idea when Andrew Luck is returning. It’s certainly possible he misses a few games, or more. Regardless, he’ll have to shake off the rust when he does return. Luck’s absence or struggles would sink this entire offense.

Undervalued: Robert Turbin – His cost is a free, and no one should be surprised if he overtakes the 33-year-old Frank Gore as the team’s lead back. Turbin was featured in the red zone over Gore late last season (he quietly scored 8 TDs in 2016), and I expect Turbin to carve a bigger role this season. But again, Turbin’s sleeper appeal is predicated on Luck returning, as the Colts won’t sniff the red zone often without him. Marlon Mack is another name to keep an eye on, especially in dynasty formats.

Bold Prediction: Luck opens the season on the PUP list, missing the first 6 games of the season. When he returns, Donte Moncrief finally enjoys his breakout season. Frank Gore finally shows his age. Marlon Mack to be the Colts’ best RB on the roster, but Robert Turbin leads the team in rushing.

OFFENSIVE LINE:

[LT Anthony Castonzo, LG Jack Mewhort, C Deyshawn Bond, RG Joe Haeg, RT Le’Raven Clark]



2017 Returning Starters: 3/5, with no outside additions but subtracting the loss of Center Ryan Kelly for the season with an injury, and RT Clark being promoted to the starting lineup from within after playing in 3 games last season.

Fantasy Impact: The Colts were projected to field their first DECENT O-line since Andrew Luck was drafted, but the loss of Kelly ensures Luck will again be one of the most hit QBs in the NFL. This could increase his injury risk coming off the shoulder surgery, and it could also cripple the team’s already weak running game. This is an average unit WITH Kelly and a bottom-10 unit without him.

GAME-LOGGING NUGGETS: Inside the 10-yard line, Robert Turbin's 17 touches were only five fewer touches than Gore's 22. In June, OC Rod Chudzinski told beat writer Zak Keefer to "count on" Turbin having a larger role in 2017. “T.Y. Hilton’s bulk stats may be threatened by the healthy return of Donte Moncrief, who missed seven games in 2016. Whereas Hilton averaged 10.3 targets for 101.3 yards with a nine-touchdown pace in Moncrief’s absence, Hilton’s averages dipped to 9.2 targets, 82.1 yards, and a four-score pace when Moncrief played.” – Evan Silva “In 2016, Jack Doyle averaged 1.94 PPR points per target. The top PPR TE last season, Travis Kelce, averaged 1.91 PPR fantasy points per target. During the past three years, 25.3 percent of Andrew Luck's completions, 24.3 percent of his passing yards and 37.2 percent of his passing touchdowns have gone to tight ends.” – Matthew Berry “Donte Moncrief posted a massive touchdown-to-yardage rate of 2.28 percent last year, scoring seven times on just 307 yards. While Moncrief has shown the ability to find the end zone in his time as a pro, that’s a completely unsustainable rate.” – Draft Sharks Frank Gore has averaged under 4.00 yards per carry in each of the last two years. Not only does Andrew Luck LOVE targeting his TEs in the red zone, Rod Chudzinski’s offenses have always yielded TE production. Over the last 10 years, Chudzinski has devoted a whopping 26% target share to TEs. Dwayne Allen was shipped to New England, opening the door for Jack Doyle to emerge as the team's clear top tight end. The Colts' official website believes the "arrow is pointing up" on fourth-year TE Erik Swoope. “The 34-year-old Frank Gore forced a missed tackle on every 17.5 carries last season – 69th out of 72 qualifying backs. His rushing grade has been in decline since 2012, and he was the 47th-graded running back overall. Robert


Turbin only had 47 carries but was more impressive, grading better overall and in the running game, averaging more yards after contact, scoring three more touchdowns, and forcing a missed tackle every 4.7 carries (eighth-best of 72 backs). The Colts drafted the athletic and productive Marlon Mack.” – Scott Barrett

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS QUICK HITS:

Overvalued: Leonard Fournette – Always seeking contact, I’m worried his playing style will lead to fragility behind an offensive line that will struggle to open up holes for him. In addition, I’m not convinced he’s an every down back yet. Will he play on passing downs? He was brought in to help the QB, but the dismal QB play will curtail his upside.

Undervalued: Blake Bortles. Just kidding. I’m going with the Jacksonville Jaguars D/ST here. The Jags’ caught on late, ranking as a top-5 defense by most efficiency metrics in the second half of 2016. In the offseason, Jacksonville added three of the top available free agents - DT Calais Campbell, CB A.J. Bouye, and SS Barry Church – to go along with studs Malik Jackson, Telvin Smith, and Jalen Ramsey. There’s A LOT of talent on this defense, and they face one of the easiest slates of offenses this season. While negative game scripts may hurt (the Jaguars will lose more games than they win), I’m expecting several big games from this defense. Perhaps the best part is that ESPN has finally changed their defensive scoring settings to prevent a QB’s pick-6s from counting against the DST from a points allowed perspective. Don’t underestimate the significance of this rule change for a team with Blake Bortles as its starter!

Bold Prediction: Leonard Fournette, the top-rated rookie in fantasy football, finishes 4th in scoring among rookie running backs.

OFFENSIVE LINE:

[LT Cam Robinson, LG Patrick Omameh, C Brandon Linder, RG A.J. Cann, RT Jeremy Parnell]


2016 Starters’ Health: 67/80 Games Played, with LG Omameh missing 10 games and center Linder missing 3 games.

2017 Returning Starters: 4/5, with Kelvin Beachum being replaced by second round rookie Cam Robinson out of Alabama.

Fantasy Impact: Outside of Linder, and Parnell on occasion, this is an uninspiring set of blockers for Leonard Fournette. The OTs will struggle to contain quality pass rushers, which could disrupt the deep passing game. It’s doubtful that Chad Henne or Blake Bortles do anything to help out this line. If Cam Robinson can show he belongs, this unit certainly has a chance to be average, but that’s about the extent of their upside. If Robinson flops as a rookie, I would rank this O-line in the low-to-mid twenties.

GAME-LOGGING NUGGETS: As an LSU fan and alum, I can confirm that Leonard Fournette runs with extreme power, and that his size/speed combination may already be among the best in the NFL. That said, he's not a very agile back, and I think he's going to struggle making defenders miss behind a weak JAX O-line which really only has 2/5 quality starters (Linder, Parnell). I totally buy the narrative that JAX wants to pound the ball all game and play great defense, and I'm even buying their defense this season big time. However, this won't necessarily lead to winning games with Blake Bortles under center. If the Jags are trailing in games, Fournette is not going to be much of a factor. I know we all are hearing from every media outlet and draftnik all summer about how "he's an underrated pass catcher." I haven't seen anything of the sort, however, and I don't think he has good enough hands to be a 3-down back. I wouldn't be surprised if Yeldon and/or Ivory took more touches from LF than expected, especially considering one factor that no one is talking about - Fournette's ability to stay healthy in the NFL, I.e. his upright running style and tendency to seek contact and run through defenders rather than around them. The plowing looks awesome from a coaching perspective to watch, but it's scary from a durability perspective. One pro comparison I'd make for


Fournette is Jamal Lewis, and I think he'll have that type of career. That said, it's difficult to justify his late-2nd ADP with Bortles/Henne, his horrible O-line, and questions about him not being an all-purpose back. I'm shying away from him as a rookie, but will be very open to drafting him in the future as JAX improves and LF improves his pass game skill-set.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS QUICK HITS:

Overvalued: Spencer Ware – Only 3 good games and fading badly after week 7 are among his game-logging red flags. All indications are he’s merely a placeholder for Kareem Hunt, and we should not be surprised if they split carries out of the gate.

Undervalued: Travis Kelce – Second in receiving yards (INCLUDING WIDE RECEIVERS) from weeks 8-16. Posted three 100-yard games in the 4 contests Jeremy Maclin missed. Gets better every year. ESPN rank is 49; I would argue late 20s, early 30s for any PPR format.

Bold Prediction: The move to draft Pat Mahomes as Alex Smith’s successor next season puts pressure on Smith to play more aggressively, look downfield more (as Mahomes would). Both Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce are hits. Kareem Hunt is a second round pick in 2018 fantasy drafts.

OFFENSIVE LINE:

[LT Eric Fisher, LG Parker Ehinger, C Mitch Morse, RG Laurent Duvernay-Tardif, RT Mitchell Schwartz]


2016 Starters’ Health: 66/80 Games Played, with LG Ehinger missing 12 games.

2017 Returning Starters: 5/5, including Ehinger returning after playing in only 4 games last season.

Fantasy Impact: The running game was noticeably worse after Ehinger went down for the season, so his return – combined with the team’s continuity of returning all 5 starters – is a very promising sign for this offense as a whole. This is a top-12 O-line that is solid all-around, with no real studs or weaknesses.

GAME-LOGGING NUGGETS: Per Michael Salfino: NFL receiving yards leaders weeks 7 to 16 (Chiefs rested starters Week 17):

1. Jordy Nelson, 879 2. Travis Kelce, 865 3. Mike Evans, 807 4. Antonio Brown, 797 5. T.Y. Hilton, 797

“Tyreek Hill was the PPR WR7 through Week 17 while averaging 8.3 touches per game in since-departed Jeremy Maclin’s four missed weeks, compared to Hill’s 5.5-touch average when Maclin played. Hill’s snap rate also elevated from 48.0% to 62.3% in Maclin’s missed month. Reception Perception WR guru Matt Harmon charted Hill as a skilled and explosive route runner who converted 80% of his contested targets, promising for a 5-foot-8, 185-pound hybrid running back. Next Gen Stats identified Hill as the fastest on-field player in the NFL last season, clocking him at over 23 miles per hour on straightaway runs. Before the Chiefs selected him in the fifth round of the 2016 draft, Hill ran 4.29 with a stupid 6.53 three-cone time, combining freak long speed with similarly freakish short-area quicks.” – Evan Silva “After Travis Kelce averaged just 46.0 yards per game over the first six weeks, he erupted for a 93.4-yard average over the next nine before Kansas City rested starters in Week 17. Kelce was a fantasy league winner, topping 100 yards in six of the final nine fantasy-relevant weeks. In Maclin’s five missed games over the past two seasons, Kelce’s receiving-yard average jumped from 57.3 to 90.6, and he averaged 8.8 targets compared to 6.5 with Maclin healthy. Last year, three of Kelce’s 100-yard games occurred in the four games Maclin missed.” – Evan Silva


“The Chiefs play the Broncos twice, so it isn’t surprising to see them with the 5th most difficult offensive schedule, including the 5th most difficult schedule of pass defenses. But it’s the non-divisional pass defenses which will give the Chiefs a tougher 2017 test. Recall that in 2016, the Chiefs played the NFC South and AFC South, providing plenty of easier pass defenses. In 2017, they face the AFC East and NFC East. Unfortunately, the Chiefs face the 6th rated defenses at preventing explosive gains in the passing game, after playing the 23rd rated schedule in 2016, so it won’t be as easy to generate those chunk plays.” – Warren Sharp Spencer Ware before his Week 8 concussion: 5 yards per carry, 18.4 yards per catch Spencer Ware after his Week 8 concussion: 3.7 yards per carry, 8.4 yards per catch. Travis Kelce led all tight ends with 138 fantasy points in 2016, but 138 points would have ranked him TE7 in 2015.

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

QUICK HITS:

Overvalued: Tyrell Williams – Was a nice story last season, but there are more pieces to the pie this season, with Travis Benjamin and Keenan Allen healthier, Hunter Henry entering year 2, and Mike Williams possibly returning halfway through the season.

Undervalued: Keenan Allen – I don’t necessarily think he’s ranked too low, but I’ve noticed he’s slipping in drafts because people are scared of his injury history. Where others see risk, you should see opportunity to pounce on one of the game’s most underrated WRs at a slight discount (draft cost is two rounds lower than last season). Small sample size, but in one half of play last season, Allen had roasted Marcus Peters for 6 catches and 63 REYD on 7 targets. He’s good.

Bold Prediction: Keenan Allen remains Rivers’ top target, plays in 14 games, recording at least 90 catches, 1,100 REYD and 8 TDs. RB Melvin Gordon sees major TD regression, scores fewer than 7 RUTDs after scoring 12 TDs in as many games last season.

OFFENSIVE LINE:

[LT Russell Okung, LG Matt Slauson, C Spencer Pulley, RG Dan Feeney, RT Joe Barksdale]



2017 Returning Starters: 2/5, with LT Okung taking over for King Dunlap, rookie RG Dan Feeney taking D.J. Fluker’s spot, and second-year UDFA center Spencer Pulley entering the starting lineup. The Chargers have already been hit with bad injury luck, losing projected starting LG Forrest Lamp for the season with a torn ACL. This forces center Matt Slauson to slide to LG, and an inexperienced Spencer Pulley to move to center. The right side of this O-line projects to be abysmal.

Fantasy Impact: Without Lamp, Philip Rivers will once again be forced to overcome a makeshift O-line, a difficult task he’s been dealing with for several seasons now. The number of hits this line has allowed in the past two seasons has taken a toll on Philip Rivers, as he’s struggled with decision making during the second half of the past two seasons. Encountering brick walls several times a game, this unit’s poor play is also the main reason Melvin Gordon (3.9 YPC last season) is not more efficient.

GAME-LOGGING NUGGETS: “Coaches don't want Melvin Gordon's workload as high as last season's – In late-July, ESPN's Eric Williams reported to Mike Clay that San Diego coaches "don't want Melvin [Gordon] around 300 carries" after Gordon was on pace for 312 carries before a season-ending injury in Week 14. We should take him seriously. In Buffalo last season, Anthony Lynn gave LeSean McCoy 60% of the team's running back carries, which is a far cry from Gordon's 80% share in the 12 games before he got hurt.” – Chris Raybon


Keenan Allen has 116 catches over the last 16 games played. Just turned 25 years old. Per Warren Sharp, in terms of Rush D efficiency of opponents, the Chargers (Melvin Gordon) ranked 1st with the easiest schedule last season. “Until Melvin Gordon suffered his own season-ending injury in Week 14, he averaged 25.3 touches over an 11-game sample and was the PPR RB3 during that stretch. Gordon averaged the NFL’s sixth-most yards per carry (4.69) against eight-man boxes (Next Gen Stats), although he finished 26th among 43 backs in Football Outsiders’ Success Rate, a middling 24th among 53 RBs in Pro Football Focus’ Elusive Rating, and 30th in yards after contact per attempt. Gordon didn’t blow the doors off in terms of effectiveness, but he was a fantasy difference maker on volume, scoring-position chances, and pass-game usage.” – Evan Silva Keenan Allen flamed Chiefs top corner Marcus Peters for most of his 6-63-0 receiving line in the first two quarters of Week 1, only to tear his right ACL just before halftime. “Keenan Allen does have a 116/1,217/10.5/8 stat line over his last 16 games, which would have made him last year’s PPR WR5 behind only Antonio Brown, Jordy Nelson, Mike Evans, and Odell Beckham.” – Evan Silva “Philip Rivers hasn’t missed a start since 2005 and has topped 25 touchdown passes in nine straight seasons. He has exceeded 4,000 passing yards in eight of the last nine years. Rivers has led the NFL in interceptions in two of the last three years, however, becoming increasingly turnover prone with age while showing a tendency to fade in the second halves of seasons, averaging 24.9 fantasy points per game in Weeks 1-9 versus 16.7 points per game the rest of the way over the past three years. Working in Rivers’ 2017 favor is a deep and explosive supporting cast which top to bottom may be the best of Rivers’ career. Working against Rivers is a brutal Weeks 1-10 pass-defense schedule that includes Denver twice, Kansas City, the Giants, New England, and Jacksonville.” – Evan Silva Melvin Gordon drew a league-high 85% share of carries from the 5-yard line or closer last year. Nine of his 10 rushing scores came from that territory. TD regression is coming. Philip Rivers has finished 8 of the past 9 seasons among fantasy’s top 11 QBs. (ADP: QB15) One Chargers assistant confirmed to ESPN's Matthew Berry the team was trying to get Antonio Gates the all-time touchdown record for tight ends last season. “The assistant confirmed there will be "no such effort" to force Gates red-zone passes in 2017, and after watching Hunter Henry's rookie-year tape, the Bolts believed Henry should have had 10-12 touchdown catches. (Henry finished with eight.) While the arrow is clearly pointing down on soon-to-be 37-year-old Gates, Henry has sophomore breakout written all over him.” – Matthew Berry “In 2016, Hunter Henry ranked behind only Rob Gronkowski among fantasy tight ends from a point-per-route-run perspective. He also posted the 13th-best fantasy season by a rookie tight end ever. The only other rookie tight ends with as many points this past decade were Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. Rivers also made a point to target Henry frequently in or near the end zone, ranking fourth in red-zone targets per game and third in end-zone targets per game among tight ends. We should also project a boost for Henry, given the fact that tight ends typically make a significant jump in their sophomore seasons. TEs who post at least 500 REYD in rookie year on average increase their fantasy scoring production 86% in their second season.” – Gary Davenport

LOS ANGELES RAMS

QUICK HITS:


Overvalued: Sammy Watkins – New team, has to learn playbook, get familiar with offense, develop rapport with Jared Goff, and catch passes from Jared Goff.

Undervalued: Cooper Kupp – His preseason has confirmed what Rams’ beat writers have been saying about Kupp: Goff trusts him the most of any WR. Will play Jamison Crowder role for Goff, who tends to take safe throws when he sees them. Could be PPR asset. Price tag still very cheap, if not free.

Bold Prediction: Todd Gurley leads the NFL in rushing after four games, rolling on a soft schedule (IND, WAS, @SF, @DAL) before things get rockier. Jared Goff looks competent in a real NFL offense (as opposed to the middle school offense Jeff Fisher ran).

OFFENSIVE LINE:

[LT Andrew Whitworth, LG Rodger Saffold, C John Sullivan, RG Jamon Brown, RT Rob Havenstein]


2016 Starters’ Health: 66/80 Games Played, with RG Brown missing 9 games.

2017 Returning Starters: 3/5, with Andrew Whitworth providing a MASSIVE upgrade over last year’s LT Greg Robinson, and John Sullivan also serving as a better replacement at center than Tim Barnes.

Fantasy Impact: The Rams’ O-line was dreadful last season, as Todd Gurley was consistently contacted in the backfield at a rate higher than any RB. Whitworth and Sullivan will help create much-needed space for Gurley to operate. Relatively speaking, this O-line ranks about average, but it’s also one of the most improved lines in the NFL, and playing in a more creative, sophisticated scheme will make them look a lot better, too, as defenses won’t know when and where the Rams are running on a regular basis like they did in Jeff Fisher’s middle school offense. The fact that Aaron Kromer is this team’s O-line coach is also good news for Todd Gurley.

GAME-LOGGING NUGGETS: Gurley will be used more as a receiver – With Jeff Fisher no longer chaperoning what Todd Gurley called a "middle-school offense," Gurley has a good shot to rebound in a Sean McVay offense that will utilize him more in the passing game. Gurley finished fourth among running backs in snaps last season (741), but 14th in targets (58). NFL Network's Gregg Rosenthal reported Gurley was being moved "all around the offensive formation: in motion out of the backfield, outside the hashes ..." while ESPN's Alden Gonzalez noted the Rams want to use Gurley "more frequently on third downs." – Chris Raybon Todd Gurley has a pretty easy opening with IND, WAS, SF… but then the Rams will start to feel heat with brutal stretch of dal, SEA, jax, ARI, nyg, HOU, min. That doesn’t include another ari matchup and sea matchup later. Yikes.

MIAMI DOLPHINS QUICK HITS:

Overvalued: Jarvis Landry – Tannehill had shown nice connection with Landry, we don’t know what to expect with Cutler. With Ajayi, new style of offense we saw in second half of last season was a slow-paced, run-centered offense that featured deep play action passes to DeVante Parker. Landry’s possession targets no longer the focal point. Parker carries much greater upside and is drafted 5 rounds later.

Undervalued: Jay Ajayi – Carries a lot of risk (injury, new QB, O-line), but he’s no more of a risk than McCoy and Gordon, who are going a full round ahead of him. Ajayi should be in that late-first tier. Offers bell-cow workload, a serious candidate to lead NFL in rushing attempts per game. Faced extremely difficult schedule last season and dealt with a number of O-line injuries (see below).

Bold Prediction: Jay Ajayi finishes second in rushing yards. DeVante Parker has much anticipated break out season, outscores Jarvis Landry.


OFFENSIVE LINE:

[LT Laremy Tunsil, LG Anthony Steen, C Mike Pouncey, RG Jermon Bushrod, RT Ja’Wuan James]


2016 Starters’ Health: 61/80 Games Played, including center Mike Pouncey missing 12 games.

2017 Returning Starters: 3/5, with last year’s LT Branden Albert traded to JAX before retiring (Tunsil will slide to LT to replace him), and the Dolphins’ signed LG Ted Larsen, who will battle Anthony Steen for the starting LG job. Bushrod was a huge liability in the running game, single-handedly killing Jay Ajayi’s YPC when running behind him. Steen or Larsen would be bench players on other teams.

Fantasy Impact: It’s a new season but the same old story for the Dolphins: They are OK at both tackle spots and center, but they are among the weakest teams in the NFL at guard. Regardless, the key for this unit is unquestionably Mike Pouncey’s health. Pouncey played in only 5 games last season (weeks 5-10), and Jay Ajayi was significantly better in those contests. In the 5 games Pouncey played, Ajayi’s rushing line was an amazing 109-650-5 (5.9 YPC), and he ranked #1 in RB scoring during that span. After Pouncey got hurt, Ajayi’s rushing line dropped to 133-547-2 (4.1 YPC), granted Ajayi did have to play tough run defenses such as NE, @BAL, ARI, and @NYJ in that span. No matter how you slice it, Ajayi was forced to play several games without 3 O-line starters - Pouncey (DNP weeks 11-17), Tunsil (DNP weeks 11-12), and Branden Albert (DNP weeks 4-5, 11-12) – and it’s clear that this unit’s health, particularly Pouncey’s, has a SIGNIFICANT impact on Ajayi’s fantasy outlook. It’s worth noting that the Dolphins signed blocking specialist TE Anthony Fasano to help out here. I can’t help but see positive injury regression coming from this O-line after a depleted 2016 season, which is a big reason I’m high on Ajayi (rhyme).

GAME-LOGGING NUGGETS: Per Warren Sharp, in terms of Rush D efficiency of opponents, Jay Ajayi’s schedule last season ranked 31st – it was the second toughest in the NFL. “Adam Gase has quite the extensive history of uplifting running back play. In 2013, Gase’s first season as an NFL OC, Knowshon Moreno finished as the No. 4 running back in PPR leagues. In 2014, C.J. Anderson led all running backs in PPR fantasy points from Week 10 on. In 2015, Matt Forte finished as fantasy’s No. 7 running back, despite playing in only 13 games.” – Scott Barrett (Re: Jay Ajayi benefited by Adam Gase) “Vegas currently has the Dolphins projected for 7.5 wins, and even just a 2.5-negative game swing can greatly impact play calling. Miami’s 477 pass attempts last year ranked 31st. If this team plays behind more as expected, we can expect the raw volume of the Dolphins’ pass attempts to increase rather significantly. In the eight games DeVante Parker saw at least six targets, he averaged 14.4 PPR points – a pace that would’ve put him on pace for a WR16 finish.” - Tyler Buecher In 309 career carries, Jay Ajayi averages a massive 3.44 yards after contact. “Adam Gase has a history of committing to a workhorse like Jay Ajayi – Coming into last season, Gase had let a running back handle 20+ touches in 50% of all games he'd ever coordinated at the NFL level, a rate well above league average. From Week 6 on, Jay Ajayi never handled less than 18 touches and averaged 22.7 per game over that span. Miami was 10-6 last season, but spent more than half of its plays trailing, so the team shouldn't have too much trouble replicating its 44.5% run-play rate, which was sixth-highest in the league.” – Chris Raybon

MINNESOTA VIKINGS

QUICK HITS:

Overvalued: Adam Thielen – Has a game-logging red flag that most of his big weeks came when Stefon Diggs was either out or playing hurt. Is Sam Bradford’s 3rd option really that valuable? What if Laquon


Treadwell or Michael Floyd step up? Vikings running game can’t possibly be worse than last season, will demand more touches at Thielen’s expense.

Undervalued: Stefon Diggs – Very underrated talent. Played like a WR1 when healthy last season. In the games he wasn’t listed as questionable, Diggs averaged nine catches for 107 yards per game. OC Pat Shurmur is pass-happy and will use him as go-to chain mover. Sleeper for 100 catches this season.

Bold Prediction: Dalvin Cook is the real deal. Finishes just short of 300 total touches (including 50+ catches), records 1,500 total yards, 8 total TDs.

OFFENSIVE LINE:

[LT Riley Reiff, LG Alex Boone, C Pat Elfein, RG Joe Berger, RT Mike Remmers]


2016 Starters’ Health: 52/80 Games Played, including significant injuries early in the season to both starting OTs, Matt Kalil and Andre Smith, and 3 games missed by each interior linemen.

2017 Returning Starters: 2/5, with Detroit’s Riley Reiff replacing Matt Kalil at LT, an upgrade but still a weakness, and Carolina’s Mike Remmers taking over at RT for Andre Smith, again an upgrade but still a weakness, as well as drafting center Pat Elfein to replace Brandon Fusco. The Vikings should have a subpar O-line across the board, but there are no terrible components.

Fantasy Impact: This O-line huge win compared to last season’s injury-riddled mess. Minnesota played musical chairs from week 3-onward at BOTH tackle positions, and it will be nice to have some stability there, even if Reiff and Remmers are below average starters. The Vikings’ O-line was the reason the running game was nonexistent last season and Sam Bradford had about .2 seconds to throw before getting creamed (this is why he attempted so many short passes and actually broke Drew Brees’ NFL record for highest completion percentage). Positive health regression is a near guarantee, and I’d expect drastic improvement from this unit due to health alone. Though the Vikings only have 1 Quality Starter, they have no horrible ones, and if they rank 20th this season as a unit, it will be a far cry from the 31st grade they received last season. This O-line is a big reason I’m bumping up the Vikings’ offensive players this season.

GAME-LOGGING NUGGETS: “Shurmur’s last four seasons as a play-caller, his teams have posted the following finishes in passing attempts: fifth, sixth, sixth, 12th (he only called plays for nine games last season).” – Curtis Patrick Stefon Diggs averaged 9.0 yards per target and 13.3 yards per catch under OC Norv Turner last year; 7.3 and 8.9 under OC Pat Shurmur. Last year Stefon Diggs caught 11 of 12 passes in the red zone but only netted 1 red zone TD. He may not be a red zone threat, but this number stands to improve in 2017. Jerick McKinnon had eight catches in six games under offensive coordinator Norv Turner. He had 35 in nine games under current offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur, and 28 in the last five games. Re: Dalvin Cook should catch a ton of passes this season. “When going through projections, it was hard not to put down at least 130 targets for Stefon Diggs in 2017, as he saw 112 in just 13 games last year. Keep in mind that he was hobbled (on the injury report) throughout about half of those games. Not just that, but Diggs started playing the slot a lot more once Pat Shurmer took over as offensive coordinator. This helps him avoid top-tier cornerbacks, but there weren’t many matchups for him on the schedule to begin with. He’ll play the Falcons who don’t send Desmond Trufant to the slot, and the Redskins who don’t have Josh Norman go into the slot. Don’t sleep on Diggs after injuries limited his impact in 2016, even though he did finish as the No. 14 in PPR points per game.” – Mike Tagliere


“In their first season without Adrian Peterson, the Vikings’ run defense catches a break. They have the 29th overall schedule of run defenses, and after facing the 17th rated schedule last year, it is the 2nd largest drop of any team as compared to 2016. That no doubt should help improve their 31st rush offense rank from last year. The run game should get off to a decent start through the first 5 weeks of the season, but there are especially juicy matchups against poor run defenses littered across their schedule from Week 8 onward.” – Warren Sharp Re: Dalvin Cook should benefit from favorable schedule. Latavius Murray has 91 career catches and zero receiving touchdowns. “Vikings OC Pat Shurmur has been a head coach and/or offensive coordinator for 122 games since 2009. During those outings, 24 percent of his team's targets have gone to the tight end. That includes at least a 20 percent target share each season, and at least a 23 percent share since 2011. Shurmur took over around midseason last year and will be the OC in 2017.” – Mike Clay Re: Kyle Rudolph should continue to get fed.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS QUICK HITS:

Overvalued: Mike Gillislee – Not a guarantee to fill the “Blount role.” Patriots uncharacteristically threw the ball only 3 times inside the 4-yard line last season, running the ball 16 times in that scenario. Expect those numbers to even out, meaning fewer goal line scores. Too much competition in this backfield now. Most importantly, Gillislee has highest price tag among Pats RBs by far.

Undervalued: Rob Gronkowski – Averaged over a whopping 20 PPR PPG in the five games he was healthy for last season, more than highest ranked wide receiver… and he plays tight end, a much scarcer position. Obvious health risks, but a healthy Gronk is a potential top-3 value in fantasy football.

Bold Prediction: Fantasy players look back at the end of year and wonder why they didn’t see Brandin Cooks coming. Saints fans look back at the end of the year and wonder why we let him go.

OFFENSIVE LINE:

[LT Nate Solder, LG Joe Thuney, C David Andrews, RG Shaq Mason, RT Marcus Cannon]




Fantasy Impact: Along with their Super Bowl opponent, the Atlanta Falcons, the Patriots’ O-line represents one of the surest bets for negative health regression. Brady and Belichick have overcome plenty of injuries over the years and remained great, but it’s worth noting that the expected drastic improvement from an offense that gains Brandin Cooks and a healthy Gronk could be lessened by injuries to the O-line, something this offense did not have to deal with last season.

GAME-LOGGING NUGGETS: “Julian Edelman was the primary beneficiary of Gronkowski’s half-season absence, and over the past four years has averaged 11.6 targets for 82.4 yards per game with Gronk inactive, versus 8.8 targets for 63.8 yards when Gronkowski plays. Edelman established career highs in targets (159) and receiving yards (1,106) with Gronk available for just 32% of New England’s 2016 offensive snaps.” – Evan Silva “Brandin Cooks has averaged 72.2 career receiving yards per game in domes but only 57.8 yards outdoors. Cooks has scored 17 TDs in 30 career indoor games versus 4 TDs in a 12-game sample outside.” – Michael Fabiano


“At quarterback, only Aaron Rodgers and league MVP Matt Ryan scored more regular season fantasy points per game than Tom Brady. Despite Rob Gronkowski’s eight-game absence and New England’s highest rushing attempt total (482) since 2012, Brady remained an unstoppable assassin.” – Evan Silva Julian Edelman’s seven 15+ point games led the Pats wide receivers, but six came in games with a less than healthy Gronkowski. “The Patriots DST finished top 5 without a DTD. That’s the first time that has happened in the PFF era. Although they benefited from historically light QB schedule, pats will get positive regression on DTDs.” – Mike Clay Tom Brady with a healthy Rob Gronkowski (Weeks 5-8) would have been far and away the #1 fantasy quarterback last year. – Sigmund Bloom “Mike Gillislee scored seven touchdowns on just 10 rushing attempts inside the 5-yard line with Buffalo last year. 13 of LeGarrette Blount’s 18 rushing touchdowns came from inside the 5-yard line in 2016. New England has ranked top-five in most plays inside the opponent’s 5-yard line over the course of six straight seasons. That touchdown upside, in addition to his projected early-down work, could propel Gillislee into fantasy stardom in 2017.” – Tyler Buecher Despite prevailing opinion, Rex Burkhead can run inside, as evidenced by his 4.5-yards-per-carry average on between-the-tackles runs last year (5.3 yards between the guards). He is the same size as BenJarvus Green-Ellis and close to Stevan Ridley – a pair of former Patriot “big backs.” – Pat Thorman

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

QUICK HITS:

Overvalued: Willie Snead – A possession WR who has had trouble finding the end zone, Snead’s floor may be high with Drew Brees, but his ceiling is lower than most think. The Saints have a lot of mouths to feed, and Brees will spread the ball around to the point where Snead will only be a primary option for a handful of unpredictable weeks. He’s a player who will post good season-long stats at year’s end, but he won’t be as pleasant to own as the raw stats would seem to indicate. I’m looking for more upside in mid-rounds.

Undervalued: Adrian Peterson & Alvin Kamara – My assessment of the Saints’ backfield is that it will be a 3-way RBBC with solid fantasy value for two of the three. Adrian Peterson will play the late Deuce McAllister role and be the horse on early downs and most importantly, goal line carries, where Payton has never shown trust in Ingram to convert. Peterson has double-digit TD potential in the Saints’ potent offense. Meanwhile, I believe Mark Ingram will play the Pierre Thomas role, which will lend itself to the occasional good game, but we’ll mostly see 6-10 carries a game with a few timely screen passes mixed in. I don’t think this role will allow him to live up to his ADP in the 50s, so he seems overvalued. Kamara, on the other hand, seems undervalued, particularly in PPR formats. He’s set to play the Darren Sproles role and could see upwards of 55 catches in this offense, serving as a perfect complement to Peterson.

Bold Prediction: Brandon Coleman scores 7 RETDs this season, second on the team behind Mike Thomas. Meanwhile, Ted Ginn and Coby Fleener combine to drop 7 RETDs this season. OK that second part isn’t bold.

OFFENSIVE LINE:

[LT Ryan Ramczyk, LG Andrus Peat, C Max Unger, RG Larry Warford, RT Zach Strief]


2016 Starters’ Health: 68/80 Games Played, including 10 games missed by LT Terron Armstead.


2017 Returning Starters: 3/5, with Armstead expected to miss the first half of the 2017 season, filled in by first round rookie Ryan Ramczyk, and free agent signee Larry Warford replacing Jahri Evans at RG. Losing Armstead is a big blow to Brees’ pass protection, but Warford could stand to be an upgrade over Evans. Peat is getting better each year, slowly but surely, and will likely be a solid starter this season now that he’s been able to focus on one position. Unger and Strief are steady, though Strief has the bad game here and there.

Fantasy Impact: Terron Armstead is one of the best OTs in the NFL, but he has struggled to stay healthy throughout his career. His absence had a noticeable impact on Drew Brees’ fantasy stats. In the 6 games Armstead started and finished last season, Brees’ TD/INT ratio was 13-4, managing a 24-11 TD/INT ratio in the 10 games without Armstead. I recorded similar splits in 2015 when Armstead missed games, giving more credence to the correlation. Ryan Ramczyk’s strength coming out was his run blocking, and when you consider Armstead’s absence and that Larry Warford should provide a nice-sized run blocking upgrade over last year’s LG Jahri Evans, it’s reasonable to assume the Saints will make it a priority to run the ball more this season. Saints fans have heard this before, but now the team has the O-line and RBs to execute. All in all, this is a Top-5 O-line with everyone at full strength. Without Armstead, I still believe the Saints have a Top 10 unit, though this depends on Ramczyk being a hit. I believe he will.

GAME-LOGGING NUGGETS: Coby Fleener is due for TD regression – Fleener may be in for an uptick in TDs after finishing last season second on the team with 16 red zone targets, but only scoring twice. Those targets aren't likely to go away: a Saints tight end has been targeted at least 16 times in the red zone in every season since 2011. (For context, 16 red zone targets would have tied for 20th in the league last season.) Brandon Coleman has been the Saints’ “most reliable” WR this summer, according to Drew Brees. Deep sleeper? A Thomas or Snead injury away from full time role, red zone threat with Brees. 2017 RB USAGE: Mark Ingram = Pierre Thomas Adrian Peterson = Deuce McAllister Alvin Kamara = Darren Sproles “Last season, Drew Brees averaged a 83.9 passer rating when targeting Fleener. Among all other Saints receivers with at least 50 targets, Brees averaged a 115.3 passer rating. For his career, when targeting Dwayne Allen, Erik Swoope, and Jack Doyle, Andrew Luck averages a passer rating of 123.1. When targeting Coby Fleener, he averaged a passer rating of only 90.5.” – Scott Barrett Fellow New Orleans tight end Josh Hill suffered a broken fibula in Week 13. Weeks 1-6, Coby Fleener saw 71 percent of the team’s snaps, compared to Hill’s 17 percent. Weeks 7-12, Fleener saw only 43 percent to Hill’s 67 percent. “Last season, the Saints ranked tied for 18th in team tight end fantasy points, yet over the prior eight seasons the Saints have ranked inside the top-six in fantasy points scored by tight ends every season except for one (where they finished 12th). That’s including Jimmy Graham’s rookie season (2010) when he started five games and caught only 31 passes. That is also including 2008 and 2009, when Jeremy Shockey led the team in tight end targets. That is also including 2015, when a 35-year-old Ben Watson saw career highs in targets, receptions, yards, and touchdowns, finishing the season as fantasy’s No. 7 tight end.” – Michael Beller Coby Fleener’s 16 red zone targets last season ranked 2nd on the Saints and 5th among all TEs. Michael Thomas didn’t even start until Week 3, missed Week 14, yet still finished as the No. 9 wide receiver with Brandin Cooks on the roster.


Drew Brees’ 2nd-place fantasy finish last year marked his 8th time among the top 3 QBs in 11 seasons with the Saints. He’s fallen outside the top 4 just twice in that span and has never ranked lower than 6th. “Now that Cooks is gone, Willie Snead will most likely be in the slot on 3-WR sets and opposite Michael Thomas on 2-WR sets. He played on 70% of the total snaps last year but the number of snaps each week was volatile. It ranged anywhere from 48% to 87% throughout the year. This wide range of play time led to a variety of fantasy scoring, but when Snead played more than 70% of the snaps, he was remarkably consistent: 9/9-172-1, 8/5-54-1, 11/9-87-0, 8/6-56-0, 6/2-38-0, 8/6-85-0, 11/8-76-0. Due to Snead’s versatility as a player and Cooks’ departure, he could be involved consistently in over 75% of the snaps every week.” – Matt Harmon One reason to be bullish on Willie Snead is his strength of schedule of opposing cornerbacks. As Scott Barrett of PFF reported, “Willie Snead has the third-easiest SOS this season after one of the toughest last year.” Mark Ingram had four receiving touchdown in 2016. He now has four receiving touchdowns in his career. From Week 11 onward, the Saints play outdoors in just 2-of-7 games, and those games are in California (Rams) and Florida (Buccaneers). “The Saints’ rushing offense is poised for a better year than 2016 from a schedule perspective. They face an easier schedule of run defenses (26th overall), which allow more explosive runs and better production on running back targets than what Sean Payton’s run offense faced in 2016. Much like their pass offense, their schedule gets extremely easy a few games into the season. From Weeks 4-17, the Saints play the easiest schedule of opposing run defenses.” – Warren Sharp Drew Brees has the second-best schedule of all the quarterbacks in 2017. The Saints have produced 16+ rushing scores in 3 straight seasons and 7 of 11 overall under HC Sean Payton and QB Drew Brees. Re: Adrian Peterson

NEW YORK GIANTS QUICK HITS:

Overvalued: Sterling Shepard – It would take an injury to Beckham or Marshall to make Shepard relevant. Yet, even if this happens, Shepard was WR36 in PPG last season despite overachieving in TD department. Now Evan Engram is there.

Undervalued: Eli Manning – Odell Beckham, Brandon Marshall, Sterling Shepard, Evan Engram, Shane Vereen. No running game. Enough said. It may not always be pretty (Eli’s play was quite ugly last season), but New York relies on him to move the ball, score. With improved supporting cast, Eli is a very strong QB2 option with QB1 upside at QB2 cost.

Bold Prediction: Eli Manning leads the NFL in pass attempts, tosses 31 TDs. Evan Engram is a Top-15 TE as a rookie, a rare feat.

OFFENSIVE LINE:

[LT Ereck Flowers, LG Justin Pugh, C Weston Richburg, RG John Jerry, RT Bobby Hart]


2016 Starters’ Health: 71/80 Games Played, including 6 games missed by LG Justin Pugh.

2017 Returning Starters: 4/5, with RT Bobby Hart being replaced by D.J. Fluker, which is a slight upgrade, if any. The Giants did not do enough to upgrade a truly tragic tackle situation. LT Ereck Flowers has been a


colossal failure to the point where he may be the NFL’s worst starting offensive lineman. The interior is relatively solid.

Fantasy Impact: If Paul Perkins doesn’t pan out, the Giants dreadful O-line will be a major reason why. Instead of upgrading their OTs this offseason, the Giants decided to surround Manning with better pass catchers, the goal being to get the ball out quicker and into the hands of playmakers. Expect a short pass-based offense designed to hide this O-line’s deficiencies. This philosophy is good for Eli’s fantasy outlook and bad the running game, and there will inevitably be some games where this O-line is vastly overwhelmed, leading to a few Manning clunkers. Not only do the Giants rank 26th in rushing DVOA, but they only ran for 88.2 yards per game during the regular season. Twenty-eight teams ran for more yards per game than the Giants. New York signed blocking TE Rhett Ellison to help in this area, and we can expect more 2-TE sets with Ellison and Engram, hindering Shepard’s snap count.

GAME-LOGGING NUGGETS: Paul Perkins averaged 16 touches per game over the final four weeks of last season, which may be a best-case scenario in 2017 if Vereen is healthy. The additions of blocking TE Rhett Ellison, Brandon Marshall (a great blocker), and a corresponding rise in double-tight end sets should improve the Giants' run-blocking, however, after last season's 3.5 yards per carry. Re: Paul Perkins Paul Perkins averaged just 3.4 yards per carry in his first 8 games last year but 4.5 over his last 5. “Enter Paul Perkins. Perkins is a rookie whose usage has grown throughout the season. He was initially used sparingly because he couldn't be trusted in protection. Once he proved himself in that area, his value as a runner could be realized. At UCLA, Perkins' balance and lateral agility made him a star. These types of cuts were devastating for college defenders trying to react to his movements, and NFL defenders have suffered similar fates when he's been given opportunities this year. He is officially listed at 5-foot-10 and 208 pounds. More important than his listings is how he runs. The one thing Perkins doesn't offer the Giants is much versatility as a receiver. He can work comfortably out of the backfield, but hasn't shown off the ability to line up out wide and run different routes against linebackers. That hurts your ability to create mismatches, but in the Giants offense that should be less of an issue with the abundance of receiving talent they have available.” – Cian Fahey

NEW YORK JETS QUICK HITS:

Overvalued: All New York Jets.

Undervalued: All Kickers and Defenses playing AGAINST the New York Jets. Seriously, streaming defenses and kickers that are playing the Jets each week seems like a profitable strategy for those who do not end up with quality K or DST options in the draft.

Bold Prediction: The Jets go 1-15, with their only win coming against New England in a meaningless Week 17 game.

OFFENSIVE LINE:

[LT Kelvin Beachum, LG James Carpenter, C Wesley Johnson, RG Brian Winters, RT Ben Ijalana]


2016 Starters’ Health: 59/80 Games Played, including 8 games missed by now-retired LT Ryan Clady, 9 games missed by retired center Nick Mangold, and 4 games missed by RG Brian Winters.


2017 Returning Starters: 3/5, with Kelvin Beachum taking over for Clady, and Wesley Johnson filling in for Nick Mangold. Johnson started 9 games last season after Mangold got hurt and was OK. The Jets project to have issues at OT, but their OGs are sound.

Fantasy Impact: Like most areas on this tanking team, the Jets’ O-line doesn’t offer much to be excited about. This is a bottom-8 unit that lacks formidability outside of its two guards. Not that the Jets’ QBs stood a chance anyway…

GAME-LOGGING NUGGETS: “Among all 42 running backs with at least 100 carries, Bilal Powell ranked second-best in yards per carry, third-best in yards after contact per attempt, and ninth-best in missed tackles forced per attempt. For perspective, Forte ranked ninth-, 14th-, and sixth-worst in those categories, respectively. Powell was already the favorite to lead the backfield in targets, but after last season’s strong showing, he could be in line for a larger workload in general. His upside also remains high if Forte were to miss time at any point in the season. Forte dealt with knee and shoulder injuries over the final four weeks of last season.” – Scott Barrett “Among all 42 running backs with at least 100 carries, Bilal Powell ranked second-best in yards per carry, third-best in yards after contact per attempt, and ninth-best in missed tackles forced per attempt. For perspective, Forte ranked ninth-, 14th-, and sixth-worst in each of these categories, respectively.” – Pat Thorman

OAKLAND RAIDERS QUICK HITS:

Overvalued: Derek Carr – This is not to say Carr isn’t capable of returning value from his QB10 rank on ESPN. He is improving each season, and he arguably has the best supporting cast in the NFL. However, I’ve seen Carr go a lot higher than that in drafts. He has some game-logging concerns; Carr had an easy passing schedule last season, and 4 of his best games last season came against the NFC South, including 1 35-point effort vs. TB (if you remove that game from sample, Carr prorates to QB17 last season). Further, this season his passing schedule is one of the league’s most difficult, including 6 games vs. AFCW. Marshawn Lynch will be used at the goal line. And we could see health regression from his dominant O-line and WRs, who all managed to stay healthy last season.

Undervalued: None. I love Amari Cooper this season, but an expected breakout is priced into his late-teens ADP already. Marshawn Lynch is a boom/bust selection I don’t mind gambling on if I need a RB, but all things considered, I think his pick ~28-35 cost is fair.

Bold Prediction: Amari Cooper has his much anticipated third year breakout, overtaking Michael Crabtree as Carr’s go-to WR. Marshawn Lynch scores double-digit TDs, but rushes for under 1,000 yards.

OFFENSIVE LINE:

[LT Donald Penn, LG Kelechi Osemele, C Rodney Hudson, RG Gabe Jackson, RT Marshall Newhouse]


2016 Starters’ Health: 73/80 Games Played, with RT Austin Howard missing 6 games. All four of the Raiders’ Quality Starters and returning starters missed a combined total of one game!

2017 Returning Starters: 4/5, with Austin Howard being replaced by the winner of a camp battle between Vadal Alexander and Marshall Newhouse. The latter is expected to win the RT job. It’s worth noting that LT Donald Penn is a hold out from training camp, with a small chance it carries into the regular season.

Fantasy Impact: The Raiders had the second best O-line in the NFL last season, behind Dallas, and projects to have the league’s best line on paper for 2017. There is cause for concern, however, as it’s unlikely that the Raiders’ four best linemen will play in 63/64 possible games in 2017 like they did in 2016. Further complicating matters is Donald Penn’s hold out. It may get resolved before the season, but it serves a


reminder that regression for this unit is likely to strike. Until then, Derek Carr will continue to have all day to throw, and Marshawn Lynch should find plenty of holes to rummage through.

GAME-LOGGING NUGGETS: Removing just one game against the Buccaneers where he scored 35.8 fantasy points on 59 pass attempts (wasn’t a single game outside of that one with more than 45 attempts, just two over 40), Derek Carr averaged just 16.6 fantasy points per game. That number would’ve ranked as the No. 17 quarterback on a per-game basis in 2016. Over the first nine weeks of the season, the Raiders have the 4th easiest schedule, which should allow for a lot of balance and plenty of Marshawn Lynch. Marshawn Lynch played 7 games in 2015. He finished the season ranked 43rd out of 44 qualified runners in yards before first contact. However, that same year, Lynch was ninth in rushing yards after first contact per carry and 57.3 percent of his rushing yards came after first contact (league average: 43.7 percent). Last season, the Oakland Raiders were one of only six teams in the NFL to average at least 120 rushing yards per game. They were also top six in the NFL in rushing touchdowns. Last season, despite missing two games and ranking outside the top 20 in yards per carry after first contact, Latavius Murray finished as the 13th-best RB in fantasy. Derek Carr has the worst fantasy schedule among all QBs. Michael Crabtree led NFL in drops with 13 “In 2016, the Raiders faced the 5th easiest schedule of run defenses and posted the 15th most efficient rushing numbers. But in 2017, they must face the 9th most difficult run defenses. It’s the 2nd largest jump in difficulty for any team, and looking at the “rush blend” metric, they face the largest increase in difficulty from 2016. All of that said, it’s not a total shy-away schedule. It simply is scattered with various top-5 and top-10 run defenses. But there are easier run defenses sprinkled in, so targeted use of the Raiders’ backfield is the smartest fantasy move.” – Warren Sharp The San Jose Mercury News' Jimmy Durkin suggests the Raiders could hold Marshawn Lynch under 200 carries. Durkin believes Lynch equaling Latavius Murray's 195-carry total from last year "should suffice," even suggesting Lynch could end up with "perhaps less" if sophomores DeAndre Washington and Jalen Richard earn increased roles.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES QUICK HITS:

Overvalued: Alshon Jeffery – Carson Wentz hasn’t shown he can be trusted to support a top WR. Doug Pederson’s offense derives from Andy Reid’s in that it features RBs and TEs, rarely WRs. Jeffery has always been inconsistent, injury-prone and has only scored 6 TDs in his last 20 games.

Undervalued: Zach Ertz – It’s not a flashy pick because he’s never had a nose for the end zone, but Ertz quietly was the top-scoring TE – TE1 – from weeks 9-17 last season. A big part of his increase in usage occurred because SWR Jordan Matthews was nicked up and missed a few games. Matthews has since been traded. While the Eagles did upgrade their supporting cast, Ertz’s ADP remains cheap at TE9 on ESPN. He probably won’t win your league, but he’s the last quality addition if you choose to wait on TE.

Bold Prediction: Despite a tough schedule that features plenty of good offenses, the Eagles DST leads the NFL in sacks and finishes with a higher positional ranking than any Eagles offensive player.

OFFENSIVE LINE:

[LT Jason Peters, LG Isaac Seumalo, C Jason Kelce, RG Brandon Brooks, RT Lane Johnson]



2016 Starters’ Health: 62/80 Games Played, including 10 games missed by Lane Johnson, and 6 games missed by LG Allen Barbre.

2017 Returning Starters: 4/5, with LG Isaac Seumalo replacing Barbre. The team is high on Seumalo, but he would appear to be a slight downgrade from Barbre. The most significant improvement for this O-line is Lane Johnson’s return from his 10-game suspension.

Fantasy Impact: The Eagles have a Top 5 O-line in the NFL with RT Lane Johnson. Carson Wentz’s splits were drastically different with and without Johnson in the lineup last season. In the 6 games Johnson played (weeks 1-3, 5, 16-17), Wentz had an impressive 10-2 TD/INT ratio, as opposed to the awful 6-12 TD/INT ratio in 10 games sans Johnson. The Eagles went 5-1 in the six games Johnson played. While it’s true some of these numbers can be attributed to Wentz’s fast start against soft opponents (before his midseason demise), Johnson certainly has an impact on this offense’s success. Sporting a stellar O-line, expect the Eagles’ offense to be more efficient in 2017.

GAME-LOGGING NUGGETS: Zach Ertz and Nelson Agholor benefit from J-Matt's vacated slot role – It's only a two-game sample, but Zach Ertz averaged 15.5 targets per game when Jordan Matthews was out last season. Numerous camp reports corroborate that Nelson Agholor has apparently found his calling card in the slot. “Game script dependency makes LeGarrette Blount an inconsistent weekly play – Pederson gave Ryan Mathews single-digit carries last season in over one-third of the games Mathews didn't exit early due to injury. Since Blount doesn't catch passes, he's ultimately going to be game script dependent. When Doug Pederson's team is down 7+, his drop-off in run-play rate is larger than all but one active play caller.” – T.J. Hernandez CSN Philly's Reuben Frank expects Wendell Smallwood to have a "pretty significant role" with the Eagles this season. “Smallwood has been talked about as potentially needing a big camp to even make the team after the Eagles signed LeGarrette Blount and drafted Donnel Pumphrey, but Frank believes the team "really likes" Smallwood. Last year's fifth-rounder appeared to be the No. 4 back in the spring. However, there are roles to be carved out in this backfield, and Blount isn't going to be ridden hard like he was in New England. This likely will remain a committee. And an unreliable one at that.” – Rotoworld “You may be asking yourself how Alshon Jeffery is going to fare in Philadelphia with a new quarterback throwing him the ball, as well as whether or not he’ll actually be able to remain healthy. Those are legitimate questions, but now we get to add another question mark – his schedule. He’ll open the season playing against the Redskins where he’ll see Josh Norman, then the Giants in Week 3, Chargers in Week 4, Cardinals in Week 5, and then back to the Redskins in Week 7. All in all, he’ll play eight games against teams on my list, including one against the Giants in Week 15, semi-finals week. With all of these tough matchups and questions surrounding Jeffery, you’re better off letting someone else draft him.” – Mike Tagliere Carson Wentz has to play @kc, NYG twice, @lac, ARI, @car, DEN, @sea. That’s half a season of bad matchups for passing game. “While the Eagles receivers were not very good last year, they also saw just a 48-percent share of the targets, a league-low. Do you recall the last team who didn’t have a single wide receiver touchdown? The 2014 Chiefs. Do you remember who the offensive coordinator of that team was? Doug Pederson, the head coach of the Eagles. His offenses have ranked 27th, 26th, and 28th in passing touchdowns over the last three years.” – Alex Gelhar Re: Alshon Jeffery.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS


QUICK HITS:

Overvalued: None.

Undervalued: Pittsburgh Steelers DST – The Steelers’ Run D allowed only 3.36 YPC allowed in its final 6 games, and the defense gets back DT Cameron Heyward, who missed 10 games last season. While not great in the secondary, the Steelers are expected to be a very good team and will be playing with plenty of leads, which creates more opportunities for sacks and turnovers. Most importantly, their opening schedule consists six straight games against bottom half QBs (@CLE, MIN, @CHI, @BAL, JAX, @KC), making them an attractive start-up option that can be had in the last two rounds of your draft; their low ranking of DST15 on ESPN means you can wait for every other team to select a defense before you have to bite.

Bold Prediction: Martavis Bryant finishes with more touchdowns than Antonio Brown. OFFENSIVE LINE:

[LT Alejandro Villaneuva, LG Ramon Foster, C Maurkice Pouncey, RG David DeCastro, RT Marcus Gilbert]




Fantasy Impact: The Steelers have a top-5 O-line, and while it’s more likely than not that at least one of their starters misses significant time due to injury (expect health regression and less efficiency by Bell in turn), the unit should remain a stable force. You can make the argument that Pittsburgh’s O-line is the reason to take Le’Veon Bell over David Johnson with the first overall pick in drafts, as this O-line dwarf’s Arizona’s shaky group.

GAME-LOGGING NUGGETS: Whereas Ben Roethlisberger has averaged just 275.7 passing yards, 1.78 touchdowns, and 7.95 yards per attempt without Bryant over the past three seasons, Ben’s rates balloon to 336.6 yards, 2.11 touchdowns, and 8.39 YPA with Martavis playing. Ben Roethlisberger has per-game fantasy finishes of QB7, QB9, and QB5 over the past three years. Ben Roethlisberger will once again have the services of Martavis Bryant, with whom he’s averaged 25.5 fantasy points, versus 20.7 in all other games since 2014. “Ben Roethlisberger’s production dried up with Pittsburgh’s pass volume. He averaged 41.9 dropbacks and 21.1 fantasy points per game through Week 10. The dropback pace would have ranked sixth-highest and the scoring rate would have been fifth-highest for the full season. During his last six games, however, he averaged 32.5 dropbacks and 13.7 fantasy points. Those rates would have ranked 32nd and 29th, respectively, for the full season.” – Pat Thorman Martavis Bryant has played in 21 career games. In those 21 games, he’s recorded 76 receptions, 1,314 yards and 14 touchdowns through the air, as well as eight carries, 49 yards and one touchdown from the ground. Keep in mind, he only started in eight of these games, and played the majority of the snaps in just 12. These numbers are also neglecting four carries for 90 yards, and 30 targets, 19 receptions, 244 yards and two touchdowns through three career postseason games. The Steelers’ 2017 running back schedule (Re: Le’Veon Bell) ranks third toughest in the league based on 2016 fantasy points allowed. Le’Veon Bell has averaged over 3.00 yards after contact per attempt in each of the last two years. – PFF


Per Warren Sharp, “The Steelers play just four-top 10 games this year, second fewest in the league. And only two top-5 games, the fewest of any team. Through Week 10, the Steelers face the easiest opponents in the league and are the only team to play just one top-10 game (Chiefs).” Starting in 2010, here are the final finishes for Ben Roethlisberger as a fantasy QB: 17th, 13th, 18th, 12th, 5th, 20th, 18th. – Matthew Berry In the last three years, Antonio Brown is the only wide receiver with over 100 receptions, 1,200 yards, and 10 touchdowns every season. Martavis Bryant has played at least 50 percent of the snaps 15 times in his career (including playoffs), almost a full season worth. His total receiving line in them is an impressive 73 catches, 1,209 yards and 10 touchdowns. For what it’s worth, Bryant says he’s a changed man after going through rehab for substance abuse. “I know it’s my last chance,” he said. “I developed better habits. I changed who I hang around. I’ve become a family man.” With his head on straight and 4.4 speed at 6-foot-4 in the Steelers’ vertical offense, there’s a ton of upside here. Le’Veon Bell averaged 157 total yards last season. That’s a 16-game pace of 2,512 yards. That would be a new NFL record for most yards from scrimmage in a season. Ben Roethlisberger’s home and road splits were drastic. Home: 160 pass completions 1,915 yards, 20 touchdowns, 5 interceptions. Road: 168 pass completions, 1,905 yards, 9 touchdowns, 8 interceptions.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

QUICK HITS:

Overvalued: Carlos Hyde – Very talented, but playing for losing team with subpar O-line against an extremely difficult slate of run defenses, and doesn’t catch passes. Not a great combination. I get the appeal of Kyle Shanahan, but the upside resulting from Shanahan ignores the associated risk of the same: we don’t know if he’s a natural scheme fit for new outside zone-blocking system.

Undervalued: None. Garcon could be undervalued (monster target load quite possible), but I’m not seeing the touchdowns. Very tough CB schedule facing Sherman, and Pat Peterson twice, and AFC West.

Bold Prediction: C.J. Beathard makes starts for this team. Yes, that’s a real person. OFFENSIVE LINE:

[LT Joe Staley, LG Zane Beadles, C Daniel Kilgore, RG Brandon Fusco, RT Trent Brown]


2016 Starters’ Health: 68/80 Games Played, with all 5 starters playing in at least 11 games. OG Andrew Tiller filled in nicely for 8 of those games at two positions.

2017 Returning Starters: 4/5, with Brandon Fusco likely taking the place of last season’s starting RG Joshua Garnett. Either way, the team did not really upgrade the unit this offseason.

Fantasy Impact: Kyle Shanahan’s zone-blocking system can upgrade a unit’s effectiveness in the running game, and his play-action roll-outs can hide weaknesses in pass protection. That said, this group does not have near the talent Shanahan possessed in Atlanta, and there will likely be a lot of growing pains for Hyde, Hoyer, and company.

GAME-LOGGING NUGGETS:


As a Redskin, Pierre Garcon averaged 9.6 targets per game in two years with Kyle Shanahan coordinating Washington’s offense. Garcon signed with a bad team that will play from behind, and Brian Hoyer is a competent enough passer to get him the ball. Garcon could be a target monster again. Carlos Hyde has ranked top-12 in yards-after-contact-per-attempt in each of the last three seasons despite pathetic supporting casts. The 49ers running game (Re: Carlos Hyde) has a BRUTAL schedule. According to Warren Sharp, “[i]t projects to be 40% worse than average, and starts with a brutal 4-week stretch of top-10 run defenses from 2016: Panthers, Seahawks, Rams, Cardinals. This schedule won’t provide any cushion for Shanahan to rely on the run game while his new starting QB eases into the saddle. This run schedule is so difficult that of their 16 games, the 49ers play just 3 teams that ranked below average in run defense efficiency last year. Every single other opponent ranked average or better.” They play 10 games against defenses which ranked top 10 against the run last season. Shanahan’s X-receivers usually get fed. Since his first offensive coordinator job (2008), Shanahan’s WR1 (Andre Johnson twice, Santana Moss, Jabar Gaffney, Pierre Garcon twice, Andrew Hawkins, and Julio Jones twice) has averaged 16.5 fantasy points per game, which would have ranked ninth-best at the position last season. The last time Pierre Garcon played under Kyle Shanahan (2013), he led the league in receptions and ranked 11th in fantasy points.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

QUICK HITS:

Overvalued: Eddie Lacy – Running behind the NFL’s worst O-line, Lacy is going to have to make a living by avoiding contact in the backfield and making people miss. That’s not his game. C.J. Prosise is set to handle passing downs, and Thomas Rawls, maybe even Chris Carson, are all vying for playing time. This seems like a full blown RBBC, but if anyone is able to take control of the majority of carries, my bet is on Rawls, who can be had a couple of rounds after Lacy.

Undervalued: Doug Baldwin – Quietly a Top 10 PPR WR in each of the last two seasons, Baldwin showed sky-high upside in the second half of 2015 (an insane 12 TDs in his final 8 games), and he had an impressive 2016 season too considering the circumstances of Russell Wilson’s health issues. Baldwin came on late last season, scoring at least 20 PPR points in 3 of his final 4 contests, including playoffs. His numbers have improved every year of his career and he’s squarely in his prime. An underappreciated top-20 player.

Bold Prediction: Russell Wilson finishes as a Top-3 QB, only behind Rodgers and Brady. Jimmy Graham goes over 1,000 REYD.

OFFENSIVE LINE:

[LT Rees Odhiambo, LG Luke Joeckel, C Justin Britt, RG Mark Glowinski, RT Germain Ifedi]

2016 Quality Starters: 1/5, Justin Britt. The other 4 starters were four of the lowest graded linemen who received significant snaps in the NFL last season.

2016 Starters’ Health: Seattle’s starters were relatively healthy last season, but they rotated at both tackle spots because no one could hold the job down even remotely adequately.

2017 Returning Starters: 2/5, after recently losing LT George Fant for the 2017 season, there’s an open competition for left tackle between guard Matt Tobin and third round rookie Rees Odhiambo. It’s as bad as it sounds. Last year’s first round whiff, RT Germain Ifedi is moving to RT from RG, supposedly a more natural fit for him, but in reality it won’t matter. Jaguars’ draft bust Luke Joeckel signed on to be the starting LG. Glowinski should compete with Ethan Pocic, a rookie center out of LSU. Britt, and best two of Joeckel, Glowinski, and Pocic should provide a competent interior. This team’s OT situation is without question the NFL’s least attractive.


Fantasy Impact: Put bluntly, this is the worst O-line in the NFL, as center Justin Britt is the only quality starter. The Seahawks have ignored the position for years, trading away its best assets and relying on raw talent in hopes that Russell Wilson’s mobility will bail them out in the passing game and his duel-threat read-options will make the running game go. Basically, this offense relies on Wilson’s health, because without it, this unit will quickly show its true, defective form. This is what we saw in 2016 when Wilson played through a myriad of injuries, crippling his movement. I would be much more worried about this O-line if Wilson hadn’t already shown he can deliver great fantasy production running for his life behind a constantly shuffling line. When healthy, his unique skill-set elevates this unit’s play in the running game and mitigates the damage from its struggles in the passing game. This isn’t to say Wilson and Seattle’s RBs wouldn’t be better with even a slightly below average O-line, however. The Seahawks need to overhaul the group.

GAME-LOGGING NUGGETS: Russell Wilson’s injuries killed his fantasy value. First it was a right high-ankle sprain in Week 1. In Week 3, he sprained his right MCL and doctors told him he was supposed to be out for four weeks. He didn’t do that, and instead added to an already dicey situation and suffered a right pectoral injury. Injuries affect every player differently, but in Russell Wilson’s case, the injuries took away his secret weapon: play action. THE INJURIES ALSO MEANT HE COULDN’T HIDE FROM HIS TERRIBLE O-LINE. In both seasons Russell Wilson has averaged 6.4 or more rushing attempts per game, he finished as a top-3 fantasy QB (2014, 2015). Last season his injuries prevented coaches from dialing up designed runs. Jimmy Graham admitted he barely practiced in 2016 (patellar tendon), still finished as TE4. Now fully recovered. “Russell Wilson's worst receiver is no longer running with starters – Bevell's most egregious sin last season had nothing to do with a pass-versus-run decision; it was his decision to let Jermaine Kearse play 78% of the team's offensive snaps and come within a few targets of Jimmy Graham. Wilson's adjusted yards per attempt when targeting Kearse was a laughably abysmal 3.6—not even half as much as Wilson's averages when targeting Graham (10.5), Doug Baldwin (9.2), Tyler Lockett (8.7), or Paul Richardson (7.5). Richardson has been running ahead of Kearse in camp.” – Chris Raybon Russell Wilson opens up beautifully with gb, SF, ten, IND, lar before a bye in week 6. Russell Wilson was the #3 quarterback from Week 9 on, after head coach Pete Carroll decided to “turn him loose” after a loss to the Saints. The team had been conservative with him because of an early season leg injury. Russell Wilson still had the 5th highest PFF grade last year among QBs. The beauty of Doug Baldwin is he gets to avoid outside CBs on teams like Seattle and Arizona. Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, Odell Beckham, and Doug Baldwin are the only receivers to finish in the top 10 the last two seasons. Based on his Reception Perception tape study, WR guru Matt Harmon deemed Doug Baldwin the best slot receiver in football. Jimmy Graham has been a top-4 TE in 4 of the past 5 seasons.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS


QUICK HITS:

Overvalued: Mike Evans – Target share expected to decline with additions of DeSean Jackson, Chris Godwin, and O.J. Howard. Numbers were much worse in second half of 2016 after Bucs committed to running game, defenses started giving Evans extra attention. Evans will have his share of good games and TDs, but he’s a not a first round pick.

Undervalued: Doug Martin – 3-game suspension keeps ADP low, Martin has shown high-end RB1 production when motivated. Has had a great offseason after injury-plagued 2016. Upside is one of the few bell cow backs playing for ascending offense with extremely favorable second half schedule. Expect a slow start, but Martin could be a great closer this season.

Bold Prediction: Mike Evans finishes outside of the Top 12 WRs. OFFENSIVE LINE: [LT Donovan Smith, LG Kevin Pamphile, C Ali Marpet, RG J.R. Sweezy, RT Demar Dotson]


2016 Starters’ Health: 74/80 Games Played, with each starter playing in at least 14 games.

2017 Returning Starters: 4/5, with Ali Marpet moving to center in place of Joe Hawley, and Sweezy taking over at RG. Sweezy missed the entire 2016 season, but his “backups” were arguably better, anyway. There is quality interior depth here, with Evan Smith and Joe Hawley on the bench, but the left side of this O-line is terrible.

Fantasy Impact: This O-line is the primary weakness of the Bucs’ offense and team in general. It’s been very difficult for Jameis Winston to buy time in the pocket, and it’s been even tougher sledding for Doug Martin to find holes on the ground. Martin had absolutely nowhere to run last season. The team is hoping O.J. Howard’s blocking presence and DeSean Jackson’s ability to spread the field will help give offense more space to work with.

GAME-LOGGING NUGGETS: “No guarantee James Winston throws more – After starting the 2016 season with a 67.4% pass-play rate over the first three games, Koetter dialed things back to a 55.1 pass play-rate the rest of the way en route to a second straight 24th-place finish in that category. This all despite a run game that finished with 3.57 yards per carry average, fourth-worst in the league. The additions of DeSean Jackson and O.J. Howard have drawn predictions of a pass-game volume explosion in some circles, but it's worth considering their presence could help Koetter call rushes even more; Jackson's deep speed forces the defense to keep its safeties farther back, while Howard is an even better blocker than pass-catcher.” – Pat Thorman Doug Martin should have an ability to make a lot of noise the final 6 weeks of the season, as they face the easiest run defenses of any team from Week 12, onward. Drafters will have to be patient though, as he gets the tough run defenses ARI, NYG, and NE the three weeks following his suspension. “Everything went right for Mike Evans last year. Austin Seferian-Jenkins got cut after a DUI arrest following Week 2. Vincent Jackson (ACL) was done by Week 5. Doug Martin tore his hamstring in Week 2 and missed half the season. Evans’ anticipated positive-touchdown regression fully kicked in, scoring 12 times after hitting pay dirt on just three occasions the year prior. The last man standing as Tampa Bay’s primary offensive weapon, Evans led the NFL in targets (171) en route to WR1 (non-PPR) and WR3 (PPR) overall finishes... Evans also closed alarmingly slowly last season, managing a 41/576/4 receiving line over the final eight games after blowing up for 55/745/8 in the first half.” – Evan Silva “After Jameis Winston averaged 44.3 passes and 4.0 rushes per game last Weeks 1-4 and committed 10 turnovers in a 1-3 start, old-school coach Dirk Koetter reeled in Winston’s quarterback reins. As the Bucs went 8-4 to close out their nine-win year, Winston’s pass attempts per game tumbled to 32.5 in Weeks 5-17, and he ranked 19th among quarterbacks in fantasy points per game thereafter. While DeSean Jackson and O.J. Howard’s additions


should elevate the Bucs’ offensive efficiency, pass volume isn’t what this fast-improving team is aiming for after finishing top eight in the NFL in rushing attempts in each of Koetter’s two years with Tampa.” – Evan Silva

TENNESSEE TITANS

QUICK HITS:

Overvalued: Delanie Walker – Additions of Eric Decker and Corey Davis cap Walker’s ceiling.

Undervalued: Derrick Henry – DeMarco Murray has received substantial workload over the last three seasons, began to wear down with minor nagging injuries late last year. If Murray goes down, Derrick Henry is a touchdown-scoring league-winner behind a great O-line on a run-committed team. ESPN ranks Henry 124th. Take advantage.

Bold Prediction: Derrick Henry finishes with more fantasy points than DeMarco Murray. OFFENSIVE LINE:

[LT Taylor Lewan, LG Quinton Spain, C Ben Jones, RG Josh Kline, RT Jack Conklin]


2016 Starters’ Health: 73/80 Games Played, with all 5 starters playing in at least 12 games last season.

2017 Returning Starters: 5/5. The unit’s strengths are bookend tackles Lewan and Conklin, but there are no weak links on this line.

Fantasy Impact: The Titans have one of the best O-lines in the NFL, but we could see some health regression from the unit following a season where no starter missed significant time. I would bet that the team’s running game is not as efficient in 2017 for this reason, but this unit’s play – as well as the added talent to the passing game – are two reasons everyone is optimistic this offense will reach new heights this season.

GAME-LOGGING NUGGETS: The Titans will have much better supporting cast but a much more difficult schedule. Derrick Henry averaged 10.0 rushing attempts in the Titans’ final four games after their week 13 BYE week. He had averaged only 6.1 carries a game before then. Henry scored 3 of his 5 TDs in the four games after the BYE. “While he hasn’t been flush with weapons, Marcus Mariota averaged a whopping 11.9 fewer fantasy points per game against pass defenses ranked in the top-half, while throwing five fewer passes per game. Through 16 games last year, the Titans had a 43 percent run rate versus bottom-half pass defenses and 51 percent against the top-half. It makes sense for a run-dominant team to do this, but it’s limiting for fantasy. Forecasting strength of schedule is inexact, but we have a decent grasp of which early games should be tough – and early trips to Jacksonville and Houston, along with a visit from the Seahawks, aren’t ideal for a quarterback. There is an excellent chance Titans passing game investors will want a refund come October.” – Pat Thorman Per Warren Sharp’s Rush D efficiency of opponents, the Titans (DeMarco Murray) ranked 1 in easiest schedules in 2016. Through the first eight games, DeMarco Murray was the RB3. Over his last eight games he was RB11. “The Titans ran out Andre Johnson and Harry Douglas for prominent roles at certain points. As run-first Tennessee led the NFL in two-tight end, two-back power formations with a lead blocker in front of DeMarco Murray, they also ranked dead last in the league in three-receiver sets. The acquisitions of Eric Decker, Corey Davis, and Taywan Taylor and departure of blocking TE Anthony Fasano suggest this year’s Titans will open things up, much as coach Mike Mularkey did in Matt Ryan’s third year with Atlanta, when Ryan leaped from a 29.5 attempts-per-game


passer with Michael Turner as the offensive foundation to a 35.7-attempt average in a breakout 2010 campaign.” – Evan Silva Marcus Mariota was the #3 fantasy quarterback from Weeks 5-12 before tangling with the Broncos and Chiefs defenses and then getting hurt in Week 16. “Delanie Walker had a 25.8 percent Red Zone Target Share in 2016, ranking eighth among all tight ends. In 2015, his Red Zone Target Share was 28.6 percent which ranked second among all tight ends. Tennessee just signed Eric Decker, who in 2015 ranked first among all wide receivers with a 38.2 percent Red Zone Target Share. Decker also ranked third in total Red Zone targets in 2014, and was first among all wide receivers in red zone targets in 2013.” – Mike Randle

WASHINGTON REDSKINS QUICK HITS:

Overvalued: Samaje Perine – Further away from playing time than people think.

Undervalued: Jordan Reed – Believe it or not, Reed has scored more PPG than Gronk over the last two seasons. Reed has Gronk-lite upside – he could post 1,000 REYD and 10 TDs, and Gronk-lite downside – he’s one of the biggest injury risks in fantasy football, but at least he’s drafted two rounds later. There are three reasons I think Reed is worth the risk: 1) I think it’s important to grab a strong TE1 this year because the position is so thin; 2) Kirk Cousins lost both starting WRs, DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon, so his familiarity with Reed could be essential; and 3) Reed’s injury history is scaring everyone away to the point where he lasts until the 5th round in some drafts.

Bold Prediction: Terrelle Pryor scores 10 TDs and tops 1,100 REYD. OFFENSIVE LINE:

[LT Trent Williams, LG Shawn Lauvao, C Spencer Long, RG Brandon Scherff, RT Morgan Moses]


2016 Starters’ Health: 69/80 Games Played, with all 5 starters playing in at least 11 games last season.

2017 Returning Starters: 5/5. This unit’s strength is its bookend OTs Williams and Moses. RG Scherff is getting better every year.

Fantasy Impact: This is a rock-solid O-line that is run by Bill Callahan, who is seen as one of the league’s premier offensive line gurus. The group gives Cousins plenty of time to throw, and if there was more stability at RB, I’d be optimistic about their situation.

GAME-LOGGING NUGGETS: Washington scored a touchdown on an NFC-low 45.9% of its red-zone trips. “Better red zone receivers increase Kirk Cousins' TD upside – Garcon and Jackson accounted for one-third of Washington's 73 red zone targets last season, but they caught a combined 2-of-24 for TDs. Even if Washington attempts fewer passes, Kirk Cousins could see his TD total climb with the bigger-bodied Pryor and Doctson on the outside. "I do like to have bigger receivers in the red zone ... to be able to throw some fades," Gruden told the Washington Post in early August. Cousins connected for a TD on just 25 of 606 attempts (4.1%) last season after going 29-of-546 (5.3%) two seasons ago.” – Chris Raybon Kirk Cousins & Terrelle Pryor may have a few blowup games early, but in the second half of the season he has to face SEA, MIN, NYG, LAC, ARI, DEN, NYG, the last four being in fantasy playoffs.


In 2016, Kirk Cousins had at least 300 yards or at least two touchdowns 14 different times. Since Jay Gruden joined Washington as head coach in 2014, only the Saints, Falcons, Steelers and Patriots have more passing yards than the Washington Redskins. Last season, Jamison Crowder was WR9 in terms of total standard (non-PPR) fantasy points from Weeks 1-13. Rob Kelley fizzled out with a 3.33 YPC average over the final six weeks and was a liability in the passing game, dropping 4-of-18 targets and ranking 41st among 61 qualified backs in PFF’s pass-blocking efficiency.

Fantasy Award Questionnaire FANTASY MVP = Le’Veon Bell FANTASY FLOPS = T.Y. Hilton, DeMarco Murray, Leonard Fournette MUST-HAVE PLAYER = Russell Wilson MUST-AVOID PLAYER = Alshon Jeffery COMEBACK PLAYER = Martavis Bryant BOUNCEBACK PLAYER = Keenan Allen ALL HYPE = Mike Gillislee WORTH THE HYPE = Terrelle Pryor OLDIE BUT GOODIE = Tom Brady OLDIE FALLS OFF CLIFF = Frank Gore ROOKIE SENSATION = Christian McCaffrey TOP SLEEPER = DeVante Parker SLEEPER NEVER WAKES = Bilal Powell ONE YEAR TOO EARLY = Hunter Henry BREAKOUT QB = Cam Newton BREAKOUT RB = Dalvin Cook BREAKOUT WR = Stefon Diggs BREAKOUT TE = Jimmy Graham BREAKOUT K = Will Lutz BREAKOUT DST = Jaguars & Steelers LEAGUE-WINNERS IF 16 = Rob Gronkowski LOSERS DESPITE 16 GAMES = DeAndre Hopkins, Davante Adams, Spencer Ware BIGGEST INJURY RISKS = Melvin Gordon, LeSean McCoy, John Brown, Jordan Reed, Rob

Gronkowski, Leonard Fournette, Sammy Watkins, Ty Montgomery, Eddie Lacy, Carlos Hyde, Ben Roethlisberger

NFL Award Questionnaire NFL MVP: Aaron Rodgers DARKHORSE NFL MVP: Marcus Mariota OFFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR: David Johnson DARKHORSE OPOY: Russell Wilson


NFL MOST PASSING YARDS: Drew Brees DARKHORSE PASSING YARDS: Eli Manning NFL RUSHING TITLE: Le’Veon Bell DARKHORSE RUSHING TITLE: Jay Ajayi NFL RECEIVING YARDS LEADER: Julio Jones DARKHORSE RECEIVING LEADER: Amari Cooper NFL RECEPTIONS LEADER: Michael Thomas DARKHORSE MOST CATCHES: Stefon Diggs ROOKIE OF THE YEAR: Christian McCaffrey DARKHORSE ROY: Kareem Hunt DEFENSIVE ROOKIE OF THE YEAR: Derek Barnett DARKHORSE DROY: T.J. Watt SACKS LEADER: Von Miller DARKHORSE SACKS LEADER: Noah Spence TACKLES LEADER: Luke Kuechly DARKHORSE TACKLES LEADER: Kwon Alexander INTERCEPTIONS LEADER: Jalen Ramsey DARKHORSE INT LEADER: Tyrann Mathieu DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR: Joey Bosa DARKHORSE DPOY: Bobby Wagner COMEBACK PLAYER OF THE YEAR: J.J. Watt DARKHORSE COMEBACK POY: Justin Houston COACH OF THE YEAR: Bill Belichick DARKHORSE COY: Dirk Koetter

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My 2016 Fantasy Results

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2016 Greatest Hits

Ranking Aaron Rodgers QB1 and Drew Brees QB2. That’s exactly how they finished. ESPN had ranked Cam Newton as the top QB. Newton (who finished as QB11) was not on my Small Board.

Matt Stafford, Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota were the only backup QBs on my Small Board.


Ranking Le’Veon Bell as the #2 RB on my Small Board despite his suspension. His ADP was 14 overall.

Calling LeSean McCoy as 2016’s biggest breakout player and recommending him as THE premier selection in Rounds 2-3. He was my RB3 despite his consensus RB10 ranking among experts in the industry. He finished as the RB3.

Listing Melvin Gordon and LeGarrette Blount as mid-round RB breakout candidates on my Small Board. Both were top-10 RBs.

Nailing 4/5 Late-Round Non-PPR RB Targets: Isaiah Crowell, Christine Michael, Spencer Ware, and Terrance West.

Listing T.Y. Hilton and Mike Evans as WRs on my Small Board, recommending them in Round 3 of drafts. Both were top-5 WRs.

Calling Michael Thomas as a breakout WR (just as many Saints fans did), recommended him as target in Rounds 9-10.

Pairing New England Patriots & Minnesota Vikings as defensive complements on my Small Board. Both were top-3 DSTs.

2016 Biggest Whiffs

Adrian Peterson, my top-rated RB, was terrible even before he hurt his knee and missed the vast majority of the season.

My two-mid round QB targets – Eli Manning and Philip Rivers – were being drafted as QBs10-11, and they were not top-10 QBs as I predicted. All three backup QBs I listed were better, so I hope you were able to grab them too!

Injuries plagued my WR board: o Dez Bryant missed four games. o Alshon Jeffery dealt with injuries all season and was ineffective when he

played. o Keenan Allen, the most devastating loss because I owned him on 3/7 teams,

tore his ACL in week 1 after looking like a star in the first half.

Rounds 5-7 were BRUTAL if you followed last year’s Draft Guide. o My recommend WRs in that range included colossal busts Randall Cobb,

Donte Moncrief, and Michael Floyd. If you avoided WR in this part of your draft, you likely were not spared, as my two of my three favorite RBs in this


range were Jeremy Hill and Rashad Jennings (the other was Frank Gore, who was rock solid). Hopefully you were able to add Gordon and Blount later!

My tight end board was a disaster behind Jordan Reed and Martellus Bennett: Julius Thomas, Antonio Gates, Dwayne Allen, and Eric Ebron ALL failed to break out. Ouch.

My Kicker Board was atrocious: I recommended Steven Hauschka, Mason Crosby, Chandler Catanzaro, and Sebastian Janikowski. Come to think of it, this could be one reason I’m willing to take Stephen Gostkowski as the first kicker this season.

Tyler Lockett and Phillip Dorsett were sleepers who never woke up. Hits & Misses – What Could Have Been? In summary, following my Small Board religiously could have yielded you this undefeated, record-breaking squad: QB Aaron Rodgers (3rd round) – QB1 RB Le’Veon Bell (1st) – RB3 RB LeSean McCoy (2nd) – RB4 WR T.Y. Hilton (4th) – WR5 WR Michael Thomas (9th) – WR7 FLEX LeGarrette Blount (8th) – RB8 FLEX Melvin Gordon (7th) – RB3 in PPG TE Martellus Bennett (11th) – TE7 DST Vikings & Patriots (13th / 14th) – DST1&3 OR on the other hand, your starting lineup could have looked like this: QBs Philip Rivers & Eli Manning (rounds 9&10) – QBs 13/20 RB Adrian Peterson (1st) – Bust / Injured RB Jeremy Hill (5th) – RB17 WR Alshon Jeffery or Keenan Allen (3rd) – Bust / Injured WR Donte Moncrief (6th) – Injured / Bust FLEX Rashad Jennings (7th) – Bust FLEX Randall Cobb (4th) – Bust TE Jordan Reed (3rd) – Injured, TE9 DST Seahawks (10th) – DST8 While this isn’t exactly an endorsement to my Draft Guide’s accuracy, it is a reminder that I get things wrong all the time, and that it’s extremely important to be very active in free agency during the season.


For instance, I was able to fill in many of the gaps on my teams created by whiffs on guys listed above with league-winners like Matt Ryan (QB3), Jordan Howard (RB9), Jay Ajayi (RB10), Terrelle Pryor (WR18), Tyreek Hill (WR17), Kyle Rudolph (TE3), and Matt Bryant (K1) in free agency in various leagues. I believe this Draft Guide will help provide you a strong foundation of players to work, but some of my recommended draft picks won’t pan out for any number of reasons. Knowing when to replace them and with who (i.e. working the waiver wire) is a big step in building a championship team.

My Fantasy Teams’ Results 2016:

Total Regular Season Record: 66-31 Made Playoffs in 7/7 leagues (14/14 playoff appearances in last two seasons) 2016 Finishes: 3 firsts, 3 thirds, 1 fourth.

League Breakdown: Last season I played in 7 leagues. Four of those were high-stakes money leagues. Two are competitive private leagues, and one is a casual family league. Six of the seven leagues are 5+ years old. I serve as commissioner in three leagues.

My Fantasy Football History (since 2009)

Total Leagues: 44 Reg Season Record: 388-211 (.6477) Playoff Appearances: 36/44 leagues (.8181) Standings Finishes: 18 firsts, 11 seconds, 3 thirds, 4 fourths, 5 fifths, 1 seventh, 1

eighth, 1 twelfth Points Finishes: 23 firsts, 8 seconds, 5 thirds, 2 fourths, 4 fifths, 2 eighths

2016 NFL Over/Under Bets:

“Bet the OVER on the Giants to win more than 7.5 games.” o Result: 11-5

“Bet the UNDER on the Bengals to win fewer than 9.5 games.” o Result: 6-9-1

“Bet the UNDER on the Jets to win fewer than 8 games.” o Result: 5-11

“Bet the UNDER on the Rams to win fewer than 7.5 games.” o Result: 4-12

“Bet the UNDER on the Falcons to win fewer than 7.5 games.” o Result: 11-5


Last season, I went 4-1 on the over/unders in my Draft Guide, but as you see, my one miss was a horrible one. I unwisely predicted the Falcons to finish worse than 7-9, placing them 4th in the NFC South. Yikes. That’s right up there with Nelson Agholor as one of my worst calls ever. My Packers over Steelers Super Bowl prediction did not yield any fruit, but both teams made it to their respective Conference Championship game.

2017 NFL Over/Under Bets:

Baltimore Ravens UNDER 8.5 wins

Detroit Lions UNDER 8.0 wins

Indianapolis Colts UNDER 8.5 wins

Kansas City Chiefs UNDER 9.0 wins

Los Angeles Chargers OVER 7.5 wins

New York Jets UNDER 5.0 wins Super Bowl Prediction – Seattle Seahawks OVER New England Patriots … You’ve made it to the end. Impressive. Best of luck this season!

2017 b.e.s.t. fantasy football draft...

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