2014 residential real estate market study

A Review of the 2014 Columbus, GA Phenix City, AL Area

Residential Real Estate Market

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Summary Source

This market study was compiled wholly from information in the Multiple Listing Services in Columbus, GA and Phenix City, AL.

Although the MLS does not entail 100% of the market, it does comprise a significant majority of the transactions. In my opinion, the

statistics, trends, and information contained herein are an accurate reflection of the Columbus/Phenix City market.

Area

This report covers property within the Greater Chattahoochee Valley area. It includes Muscogee, Harris, Chattahoochee, Talbot,

Marion, Lee and Russell Counties.

Glossary of Terms

Days on Market Number of days from date of listing to the date of closing. This includes the escrow period typically

running 30 to 60 days.

List Price/Sales Price This is the percentage of the list price that the home actually sold for. For example, if the home was

listed for $100,000 and sold for $90,000 the ratio would be 90.0%.

% Chg ($) VS Prev. Yr This is the appreciation or depreciation in the average sales price. Depreciation is noted by ( ).

Months of Supply This is calculated by dividing the active listings by the average number of homes selling each month.


The Summary Data (2009-2014)

Georgia-Muscogee, Harris, Chattahoochee, Marion, Talbot

As of January 1, 2015 there were 1527 homes for sale (up 24 from 1/1/14).

Based upon 2014 sales rate there are 8.36 months of supply (down .15 months from 1/1/14)

GA 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

# of Sales 1,849 1,783 1,849 1,958 2,117 2,190

AVG Price $162,679 $158,639 $152,854 $159,953 $161,332 $168,003

% Chg($) VS Prev. Yr

(6.6%) (2.5%) (3.6%) 4.4% .85% 3.97%

DOM 130 141 158 172 166 155

List Price/Sales

Price 95.92% 95.31% 97.56% 94.56% 95.01% 95.22%

Alabama-Lee, Russell

As of January 1, 2015 there were 548 homes for sale (down 87 from 1/1/14).

Based upon 2014 sales rate there are 7.57 months of supply (down.1 months from 1/1/14)

AL 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

# of Sales 1,209 1,101 1,122 1,045 993 868

AVG Price $150,656 $153,811 $156,506 $150,718 $146,575 $150,889

% Chg($) VS Prev. Yr

.5% 2.1% 1.8% (3.7%) (2.7%) 2.85%

DOM 128 138 136 145 144 147

List Price/Sales

Price 97.57% 97.21% 97.47% 96.78% 96.23% 96.68%


The Data (2010-2014) 2010 Sales information by area

2010 NW

Musc. NE

Musc. E

Musc. W Musc.

S Musc.

Harris Other GA

Area 1 Area 2

# of Sales 227 441 314 287 207 257 50 852 238

AVG Price $257,234 $190,972 $97,560 $104,039 $86,137 $219,780 $108,714 $141,841 $195,881

& Chg($) VS Prev.

Yr

12.8% (4.0%) (12.0%) (16.9%) (4.2%) (4.8%) 16.4% (1.0%) 9.5%

Days on Market

144 133 135 134 129 169 168 138 142

List Price/Sales

Price

95.77% 97.61% 95.85% 92.03% 94.61% 95.27% 91.54% 96.34% 100.74%

2011 Sales information by area

2011 NW

Musc. NE

Musc. E

Musc. W Musc.

S Musc.

Harris Other GA

Area 1 Area 2

# of Sales 231 528 285 278 210 269 51 803 319

AVG Price $213,223 $182,224 $88,715 $123,067 $78,292 $229,610 $101,417 $145,200 $194,641

& Chg($) VS Prev.

Yr

(17.1%) (4.6%) (9.1%) 15.5% (9.2%) 4.3% (6.7%) 2.4% (.7%)

Days on Market

163 153 162 159 145 154 216 137 131

List Price/Sales

Price

94.04% 97.22% 93.41% 92.37% 92.30% 96.14% 91.10% 96.33% 100.34%

Area 1 (Phenix City, Valley, Lanett, Smith Station, Salem)…Area 2 (Seale, Ft. Mitchell, Hurtsboro,

Hatchechubbee)


Hatchechubbee)



2012 NW

Musc. NE

Musc. E

Musc. W Musc.

S Musc.

Harris Other GA

Area 1 Area 2

# of Sales 287 522 307 298 197 281 57 703 302

AVG Price $215,879 $184,191 $88,865 $141,087 $76,207 $225,460 $107,318 $133,163 $194,797

& Chg($) VS Prev.

Yr

1.2% 1.0% .01% 12.8% (2.7%) (1.8%) 5.5% (8.3%) .08%

Days on Market

151 166 162 193 186 183 182 144 146

List Price/Sales

Price

95.63% 97.70% 92.76% 91.68% 91.40% 95.28% 92.58% 95.97% 99.19%

The Data (2010-2014)


2013 NW

Musc. NE

Musc. E

Musc. W Musc.

S Musc.

Harris Other GA

Area 1 Area 2

# of Sales 317 567 314 309 224 343 48 743 228

AVG Price $221,656 $192,524 $87,122 $124,998 $82,762 $214,782 $93,559 $134,256 $188,752

& Chg($) VS Prev.

Yr

2.60% 4.33% (1.96%) (11.40%) 7.92% (4.73%) (12.82%) .81% (3.10%)

Days on Market

167 144 144 195 173 167 162 133 185

List Price/Sales

Price

96.13% 97.50% 93.77% 91.79% 93.58% 95.53% 89.88% 95.77% 97.63%

Area 1 (Phenix City, Valley, Lanett, Smith Station, Salem)…Area 2 (Seale, Ft. Mitchell, Hurtsboro, Hatchechubbee)


Hatchechubbee)



2014 NW

Musc. NE

Musc. E

Musc. W Musc.

S Musc.

Harris Other GA

Area 1 Area 2

# of Sales 325 577 349 317 198 393 40 731 178

AVG Price $216,719 $181,976 $88,946 $151,994 $81,935 $224,230 $102,283 $141,971 $180,258

& Chg($) VS Prev.

Yr

(2.2%) (5.4%) 2.05% 17.76% (.9%) 4.21% 8.5% 5.4% (4.50%)

Days on Market

166 149 142 173 128 160 177 139 170

List Price/Sales

Price

97.09% 97.24% 93.89% 92.46% 91.87% 95.96% 93.32% 96.15% 99.29%


Hatchechubbee)


The New Construction vs. Resale Data (2013-2014)

2014 Sales by New or Resale & Price

(Muscogee/Harris/Chattahoochee/Talbot/Marion)

2014 New

Construction. Resales

Active New Construction

1/1/2014

Active Resale

1/1/2014

New Construction Mths Supply

Resale Mths

Supply

Price # of Sales # of

Sales

$0-$100K

0 722 1 420 N/A 6.98

$100K-$150K

12 365 7 257 7.00 8.45

$150K-$200K

68 325 38 171 6.70 6.31

$200K-$250K

137 189 95 97 8.32 6.15

$250K-$300K

65 130 87 81 16.05 7.47

$300K-$400K

31 117 49 79 18.99 8.10

$400K-$500K

10 40 13 50 15.66 15.01

$500+ 4 43 8 86 24.00 24.02

Totals 327 1,931 298 1,241



(Lee/Russell)

2014 New



1/1/2014

Active Resale

1/1/2014


Resale Mths

Supply


Sales

$0-$100K

0 275 1 154 N/A 6.72

$100K-$150K

33 215 16 107 5.81 5.97

$150K-$200K

91 100 29 87 3.82 10.44

$200K-$250K

105 35 44 37 5.02 12.67

$250K-$300K

41 17 10 25 2.92 17.60

$300K-$400K

23 13 8 18 4.17 16.62

$400K-$500K

1 5 0 7 N/A 16.67

$500+ 0 4 0 10 N/A 30.03

Totals 294 664 108 445


The New Construction vs. Resale Data (2013-2014)


(Muscogee/Harris/Chattahoochee/Talbot/Marion)

2013 New



1/1/2013

Active Resale

1/1/2013


Resale Mths

Supply


Sales

$0-$100K

1 735 0 398 N/A 6.49

$100K-$150K

14 365 6 246 3.59 8.09

$150K-$200K

103 272 57 151 6.64 6.66

$200K-$250K

137 145 81 114 7.09 9.43

$250K-$300K

54 91 94 85 20.88 11.21

$300K-$400K

48 73 43 89 10.75 14.63

$400K-$500K

13 31 11 51 10.18 19.76

$500+ 2 31 7 69 42 26.71

Totals 372 1,743 299 1,203



(Lee/Russell)

2013 New



1/1/2013

Active Resale

1/1/2013


Resale Mths

Supply


Sales

$0-$100K

1 296 1 185 12 7.50

$100K-$150K

42 193 16 161 4.57 10.01

$150K-$200K

147 87 35 81 2.85 11.17

$200K-$250K

108 27 42 36 4.66 16

$250K-$300K

54 8 9 22 2 32.99

$300K-$400K

16 8 9 15 6.75 22.50

$400K-$500K

1 3 0 10 N/A 40

$500+ 0 2 0 13 N/A 78

Totals 369 624 112 523


Appreciation/Depreciation in Muscogee, Harris, Chattahoochee, Talbot, Marion by year

0.50%

-3.50%

-6.60%

-2.50%

-3.60%

4.40%

0.85%

3.97%

-8.00% -6.00% -4.00% -2.00% 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00%

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014


Appreciation/Depreciation in Lee & Russell by year

0.50%

2.10%

1.80%

-3.70%

-2.70%

2.85%

-5.00% -4.00% -3.00% -2.00% -1.00% 0.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 4.00%

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014


0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

2816

2390

2037

18491783

18491958

21172190

Number of homes sold in Muscogee, Harris, Chattahoochee, Talbot, Marion by year


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

884

1209

1101 1122

1037993

868

Number of homes sold in Lee & Russell by year


$135,000.00

$140,000.00

$145,000.00

$150,000.00

$155,000.00

$160,000.00

$165,000.00

$170,000.00

$175,000.00

$180,000.00

$185,000.00

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

$179,579.00$180,570.00

$174,194.00

$162,679.00

$158,639.00

$152,854.00

$159,953.00

$161,332.00

$168,003.00

AVG Price for Homes sold in Muscogee, Harris, Chattahoochee, Talbot, Marion by year


$140,000.00

$142,000.00

$144,000.00

$146,000.00

$148,000.00

$150,000.00

$152,000.00

$154,000.00

$156,000.00

$158,000.00

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

$149,968.00$150,656.00

$153,811.00

$156,506.00

$150,718.00

$146,575.00

$150,889.00

AVG Price for Homes sold in Lee & Russell by year


Conclusions & Outlook

In the nation…

Look for a stronger housing market in 2015. With income and employment rising, demand for housing will increase. It’s the gradual easing

of credit conditions that will break the leftover 2014 sales logjam. This easing will come from changes made by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. First,

down payments for Fannie and Freddie qualifying mortgages have been reduced from 5% to 3% for creditworthy first-time home buyers. This by

itself will not open the floodgates, as most buyers in this category could have got a loan through the Federal Housing Administration (FHA). What is

important is that the change signals mortgage lenders that Fannie and Freddie rules are beginning to relax, so lenders can consider making loans to

folks that previously would have been ruled out automatically. Moreover, lenders can lower interest rates, since they have less risk on loans sold to

Fannie and Freddie.

A second change is further clarification of the circumstances in which Fannie and Freddie can refuse to purchase a loan, pushing it back on

the lender. Confusion about this practice has had a surprisingly large effect, slowing lending, particularly for small lenders. They have been the most

active in the market in the past few years, and having even one mortgage pushed back on them would tie up a large percentage of their available

capital. Meanwhile, for large lenders, billion-dollar penalties levied on some for lax lending have spooked them and they have focused on growing

other types of lending, such as business and consumer loans. Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Mel Watt’s comments that lenders shouldn’t

be overly concerned about so-called putbacks, and further actions by the FHFA to reduce the uncertainty about the rules should go a long way to

improve credit conditions in general.

The impact of these changes will be significant. Lending would go up by an estimated 10% if lenders considered borrowers with FICO scores

below 640. For example, the lower FICO scores of immigrants who are accustomed to using cash instead of credit may not accurately reflect their

ability to repay a mortgage.

Part of the market is already nearing normal conditions. Sales of existing homes are expected to grow 8% in 2015, and are likely to match or

exceed what would have been considered average between 1999 and 2002, just prior to the housing boom and subsequent bust of the last decade. The

strong rental market has pushed multifamily construction back to normal levels and now multifamily starts are likely to grow less vigorously—

perhaps 5% this year. New single-family home construction and sales, however, are likely to surge by 25% or so in 2015. That will still put them at

only about 70% and 60%, respectively, of prebubble levels, and they will not recover fully until at least 2017. Expect starts to hit 800,000 in 2015

and new-home sales, 545,000.

New-home supply shortages will continue to ease gradually. A number of large builders are beginning to shift their focus from high-end to

lower-priced houses. The shortage of skilled tradesmen such as carpenters and framers, which has hampered construction in recent years, will abate


as wages rise and consistent work attracts more workers back to construction. Many found jobs outside the housing sector when the housing market

crashed and construction dried up. In addition, land which developers began to develop a year or more ago will finally become available to build in

the coming year, after clearing various regulatory hurdles.

Expect continued moderate home price increases in the neighborhood of 3.5% in 2015 for the nationwide average. That’s a bit less than the 4% gain

in 2014.

In our local market…

2014 was the third year in a row, on the Georgia side of the river, that we saw an overall rise in value. Based on the average sale price, there

was an overall appreciation rate of 3.97% after seeing a .85% increase in 2013. For the third year in a row, the inventory of homes on the market has

gone down. In January of 2010, there were 12.3 months of inventory. Last January the supply was 8.52 months and on January 1, 2015 there was

8.36 months of supply. A six month supply is, generally, recognized as a balanced market (favoring neither a buyer nor a seller). Therefore, the

inventory is still a bit too high, but it has come down significantly and sales have inched up. Interest rates are still historically low. These conditions

point towards a healthy real estate market in our area with values edging up and inventory consistently moving down through the year.

On the Alabama side, 2014 saw a recapture of last year’s depreciation with an increase in value of 2.85%. The inventory in the Phenix City

area has come down over the last two years to a 7.57 month supply. New construction unit sales in Lee and Russell Counties was down again about

20% from 2013, while unit sales on existing homes was up 6.1% after an 11% increase last year. New construction unit sales on the Georgia side

was down 13% while existing home sales were up 10%. Of particular interest is the fact that sales over $500,000 in our Georgia market area

increased nearly 30%.

We can look forward to slight increases in value throughout our market during 2015…probably in the 2%-4% range, as well as a slight

decrease in inventory over coming months. We expect approximately a 7.75-8.00 month supply by the beginning of 2016.

http://www.kpdk.com/

2014 residential real estate market study

Documents

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average sales price

avg price

sales information

list pricesales price

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ne musc

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