2011 apr saewc_pres

This report is solely for the use of client personnel. No part of it may be circulated, quoted, or reproduced for distribution outside the client organization without

prior written approval from Ducker Worldwide LLC.

1250 Maplelawn Troy Michigan 48084 PH. 248.644.0086

A Past, Present and Practical

Look at the Global Future for

Aluminum in Light Vehicles

ducker.com Transportation * CONSTRUCTION * INDUSTRIAL * materials * FINANCIAL

Confidential - © Ducker Worldwide

Presented at the 16th CRU World Aluminum Conference

13 -15 June 2011, Rey Juan Carlos, Spain

CONFIDENTIAL NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION



0

5

10

15

20

25

1999 2011 2017 2025

5.8

11.5

16.8

25.0

Global Shipments of Aluminum for Light Vehicles (Millions of Tons)

All Time Records

A Past, Present and Practical Look at the Global Future for


Past Present Current

Forecast

A Practical

Look

at the Future

Source: Ducker

• Global Emission Mandates

• Regional Shifts by Vehicle Segment

• Changes in Vehicle Footprint

• Changes in Vehicle Curb Weight

• Changes in the Source for Propulsion

• Petrol Engine Displacement Trends

• Changes in the Types of Transmissions

• Individual OEM material strategies (early adopters)

• Aluminum Wheel Penetration

• Price of Aluminum relative to steel and Mg

• Competitive Material Strategies

• Consumer Preferences for Convenience & Safety

Moving Average for Oil Prices over the

2011-2020 Timeframe

What we study to determine the current

and future use of aluminum in Light Vehicles



Most important at the present time

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

MP

G

September 30, 2010 Joint Rulemaking EPA Proposal for Intent on 2017- 2025 CAFE

Actual orLowestValue

HighestValue

Global Light Vehicle Emissions

55 MPG is a

Likely compromise

34 Country Agreement

U.S. Proposal of Intent

These agreements and proposals

of intent are not “Mandates”

Source: Ducker Source: Roland Berger

2025

California is the NA key

2006 2030

Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development

China is not a member

Some OEMs and the Steel

Industry are vehemently

opposed to any and all

future mandates

67



1 1.1

1.2 1.3

1.4

1.7 1.8

1.9

2.3

2.7

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

A A/B B C C/D D D/E E E/F F/G

Me

tric

To

ns

2011 Global Light Vehicle Average

Curb Weight

1.1 1.2 1.3 1.6 1.7 1.9

2.4

1.26 1.35

1.85 1.8 2.0

2.8

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

A B C OtherFF

D E Full SizeFF

Metric Tons

2011 North American Light Vehicle Curb Weights

Maximum

Minimum

Average is 1,800 kg

Average is 1,500 kg

A segment is city cars, B segment is for the

cars known as super minis, C segment is for

small family cars, D segment are called

large family cars, E segment cars are

known as executive cars, F segment is

reserved for luxury cars. In North America

this segment includes full frame pickup

trucks and SUVs. MPVs or Mimi Vans are

usually attributed to the B, C and D sedan

segments on which they are based. The G

segment is for very large vehicles with a

footprint approaching nine square meters

Price Waterhouse Coopers has created

segments such as A/B, C/D, D/E, E/F

and F/G to give us even finer size

categories for the purpose of detailed

analysis. We use ten segments

based on the PWC segments in our

work which is based on a combination

of vehicle footprint, curb weight, interior

volume and engine displacement by

geographical region

North America typically uses

only seven vehicle segments

Most analysts underestimate curb weight

Source: Ducker




Where are we today?


The Current Global Situation for Aluminum in Light Vehicles

88% of All Aluminum Content is in these Four Vehicle

Systems


Heat Exchangers

Engines

Transmissions Wheels

Source: Ducker


Global Light Vehicle Aluminum Content


Source: Ducker

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

A A/B B C C/D D D/E E F/E F/G

80 89

100 107

125

150

164 159 157

150

2011 Kilograms/Vehicle

Average will be 127 kg/vehicle

Footprint (wheelbase X width)

2.5 Square

Meters

9 Square

Meters

E/F

300 kg/sq. meter 400 kg/sq. meter

The high torque

gasoline engines

and diesel engines

pervasive in

segments E/F and

F/G currently use

iron engine blocks

Size really does matter @ 300-400 kg

of total weight per square meter of

footprint. Smaller vehicles weigh

more per square meter





Source: Ducker

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5


0.115

0.676 0.624

2.051

1.36

1.883

1.458

1.06

0.242 0.036

Mil

lio

ns o

f To

ns

2011 Aluminum Content by Global Segment

Global Vehicle Segment

E/F

Total is 9.6 Million Tons

of Aluminum Content in the

75 million light vehicles

to be assembled globally in

2011

C and D segments

contain the most

aluminum in total



Global Light Vehicle Aluminum Shipments


Source: Ducker

Primary 43%

Secondary 57%

2011 Aluminum Required for Global Light Vehicles

11.5 Million Tons

of Shipments for

75 Million Vehicles.

Steel will ship

90 Million tons

4.95 Million Tons

6.55 Million Tons

Secondary is limited by

the availability of scrap

Overall recovery is 83.5%

because 80% of the aluminum

is castings with only 10% sheet.

The recovery for sheet is 67%.

Some OEMs maintain our recovery

estimates are a bit high

Primary Secondary

87.7 kg

66 kg

Wheels Engines

Trans Heat

Trans.

Misc.

Struct.





Source: Ducker

Regional Differences

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

EEU NorthAmerica

Japan Global

34% 38% 42% 37%

14%

21% 18% 20%

16%

17% 16% 16%

10%

10% 12% 15%

8%

4% 4% 10%

4%

All Other

Body, Bumperand Closures

Steeing andBrakes

Suspension

Heat Transfer

Wheels

Transmissions

Engines

130 kg 152 kg 123 kg 127 kg

2011Finished

Kilograms

Per Vehicle

Steering &

Brakes

2%

The hard

to make

parts

Except for diesel blocks, the EEU

is the leader for auto aluminum





Source: Ducker

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%


8% 8.10% 8.30% 8.20% 8.90% 8.90% 9.10%

8.40%

6.80%

5.60%

2011 Aluminum Percent of Curb Weight by Global Segment

The best measure of aluminum industry progress is aluminum’s share of global curb weight

E/F

Average for 2011 will be 8.5%


The aluminum

content in the E/F

and F/G segments

is over 150 kg, but

the curb weight is

over 2,500 kg

resulting in a low

aluminum percent

of curb weight




Source: Ducker

Beginning of Fuel

Economy Mandates

40 Years of

Uninterrupted Growth for

Aluminum Content as a

% of curb

The average is 3 kg per year

or 3.8% CAGR over the 40 years



What about the Future?


The Future for Aluminum in Light Vehicles


Body &

Safety Cage

Hoods

Suspensions and Steering

Brakes

Roofs

Subframes Doors

Pickup Truck Ladder Frames

Unibody

Source: Ducker


Calendar Year


- History and Forecast -


Source: Ducker

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

10.00%

12.00%

1970 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Aluminum percent of Global Curb Weight with Trendline Forecast

2015 2020

10%

8.5% in 2011

Aluminum has been below the trend line

in the last few years, but should be back

on the trend line in 2011


Business as usual


Calendar Year




Source: Ducker

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

10.00%

12.00%

Aluminum percent of Global Curb Weight

Trend Line Forecasts

2020

10%

12%

12% is possible by 2020 in NA

and the EEU, but not worldwide

8.5 % in 2011

Recent high levels of aluminum

activity have caused some to

suggest we abandon

the trend line and aim higher



Calendar Year

Global Light Vehicle Production



Source: PWC & Ducker

0

5000000

10000000

15000000

20000000

25000000

1990 2000 2010 2017

Pro

du

ctio

n b

y Se

gme

nt

Global Segment Growth

A

A/B

B

C

C/D

D

D/E

E

E/F

F/G

The C Segment is important,

but D Segment Vehicles

are critical for Al success

D

C


We expect 98 million vehicles

to be assembled globally in 2017


Global Segment

Global Light Vehicle Production Change by Segment


Source: Ducker

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Pe

rce

nt

Incr

eas

e

Segment Volume Percent Increase by 2017 vs. 2011

80 kg

89 100

107

125

150

164 159 157 150

127

Aluminum in the average 2011 vehicle

Mix going forward is favorable to aluminum.

The world is not moving completely to small

vehicles, at least not yet



Source: Ducker

59%

9%

17%

15%

Shipment Increase by 2017

More Vehicles

Favorable Mix

IncreasedPenetration

NewApplications

2011 2017

6.55 6.55

4.95 4.95

3.45

0.5 1

0.85

Shipments for Light Vehicles Millions of Tons

Secondary Base Primary Base

Vehicle Growth Segment Shift

Increased Penetration New/Recent Applications

16.8

2017 Most Probable Forecast of the

Global Aluminum Use for Light Vehicles

11.5

5.3 Million Metric Ton Increase

This is a significant increase, but only 9.3%

of the 2017 Global Curb Weight of 1,470 kg




- Longer Term Global Forecast -


Source: Ducker

Complete Body Structures

and Bumper Beams

Closures

Hood

Deck

Door Outer

Door Outer

All these

parts

require

primary

Fenders


Bumpers


Source: Ducker

Cast Steering Knuckle Front End with Shock Tower Cast Shock Tower

Forged Suspension Arm

Complete Stamped Door Structure

These are the most attractive parts for widespread

conversion to aluminum in the next fifteen years

Other target parts for widespread global conversion to aluminum

All these

parts

require

primary




Source: Ducker

Aluminum Penetration Changes for Existing Key

Components at their Current Growth Rate

100%

Zero 2023 2029

New Alloys needed

to get blocks to 100%

Wheels will Struggle

to get this high

worldwide

Hoods are a

proxy for all closures

except doors

40%

Thermal

Conductivity

Prevails

The components that contributed

the most to the tremendous growth of

aluminum use in light vehicles since 1980

will plateau over the next 5 to 10 years

100%

Trend lines by region

are available @

www.ducker.com

Regional penetration analysis and regional vehicle

segment analysis are the basis of our long term forecasts

China & NA are the leaders

EEU is the leader

Japan is the leader

Japan & EEU are leaders

NA is the leader


83.5%

Recovery

2011 Base

Total

7.15

Total

7.35

47 Million

More Vehicles

Aluminum

Shipment

Growth

of 55 kg/v

Minus 1.25

Losses to

Magnesium

This would

require the

entire magnesium

industry to nearly

triple

in size by

2025

The 79% recovery

assumption for

2025 could be

as low as 75%

as even more

mill products

are required

Content plus Scrap plus Spare Parts

Shipments of 25 Million Tons in 2025 50% Primary & 50% Secondary Aluminum

A Practical Look at Global

This global forecast is the end result

of several separate regional forecasts Source: Ducker

In an OEM peer

review, the consensus

was that our 2025 forecast

may be too conservative.

Providing scrap

is available

168 kg/v of global content





Calendar

Year Millions of

Vehicles Millions

of Tons Shipments

kg/v Content

kg/v 1999 54 5.8 107 89 2011 75 11.5 153 127 2017 98 16.8 171 142 2025 122 25 200 168

A Past, Present and Practical Look at the Global Future for


0

5

10

15

20

25

1999 2011 2017 2025

3.3 6.6

9.2 11

2.5

4.9

7.6

12.5

1.5

Global Aluminum Shipments for Light Vehicles (Millions of Tons)

Secondary

Primary

Depends

on Scrap

5.8

11.5

16.8

25.0

6% CAGR

Source: Ducker



Final Comments and Recommendations

To achieve a long term (2011-2025) annual growth rate for aluminum

of three to four kilograms per light vehicle worldwide and an

above average six kilograms per vehicle in North America:

1. The global downstream aluminum supply base will need to invest at least $3.5

billion in new facilities with one billion of that in North America

2. The aluminum industry will need to return to the 1990’s level of auto industry

support not just for sheet, but for structural forgings, hydro formed extrusions,

high ductility permanent mold castings and vacuum assisted high pressure die

castings. New suppliers with names most of us won’t recognize are likely to

emerge to fill the void left by the large integrated aluminum companies

3. Global aluminum auto part product development and downstream cost

reduction, including ingot casting, will be necessary to help insure success

4. Average oil prices of $100 to $125 per barrel for most of this decade (not to

low and not too high). High prices for petrol hurt the vehicle mix for aluminum,

particularly for castings, but high prices help drive new applications

5. Mandates of 55 miles per gallon or the equivalent in CO2 emissions of

160 g/mile in North America, Europe, Japan and China must be enacted at the

latest by 2020 with an effective date by at least 2025


1250 Maplelawn Troy Michigan 48084 PH. 248.644.0086 Confidential - © Ducker Worldwide

ducker.com

This concludes our presentation. Thank you.

This presentation was prepared by Ducker Worldwide LLC. Opinions and estimates constitute judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice. Any interpretations derived from these findings are the sole responsibility of the client. Reproduction without the explicit consent of Ducker Worldwide LLC is strictly prohibited.

For more information, copies of these slides and/or

an exclusive consulting contract please contact:

Richard Schultz

Ducker Worldwide

1.724.940.9018

[email protected] For over 50 years, Ducker Worldwide has enabled clients to navigate and thrive in a dynamic, global marketplace. Our unique and proven combination of custom market intelligence, critical thinking and strategic consulting create valuable opportunities that deliver critical results.

For more information regarding our strategic services, expertise and to learn how Ducker Worldwide can help

you, please contact one of our team members at 248-644-0086 or visit our website at www.ducker.com

27

1250 Maple lawn Troy Michigan 48084 PH. 248.644.0086 Confidential - © Ducker Worldwide




Literature Review:

1. Lotus Engineering, Inc. --- An Assessment of Mass Reduction Opportunities

for a 2017-2020 Model Year Vehicle Program, March 30, 2010

2. Multi-Material Light Weighting the Vehicle Structure – EU Super Light Car,

Volkswagen Group Research, May, 2008

3. Stiffness Relevance and Strength Relevance in the Crash of Car Body

Components, University of Aachen Report Number 83440, May, 2010

4. Preliminary Vehicle Mass Estimation Using Empirical Subsystem Influence

Coefficients, Donald E. Mallen, University of Michigan, May 2007

Acknowledgements:

The author wishes to thank Ford Motor Company, General Motors,

Honda Motor Company, American Iron and Steel Association, US. and Canadian

Aluminum Associations, Compass Auto Group, Meridian Technologies, Kobe

Auto Aluminum Products, Revstone-Contech, Kaiser Aluminum, Alcoa,

Raufoss Technologies and Novelis for their help with this presentation

28




About the Author

Dick Schultz, Managing Director of the Automotive Materials Practice for Ducker Worldwide

Prior to joining Ducker Worldwide , Dick was the President of Alcoa Automotive Structures and the

Director of Worldwide Automotive Products for Alcoa in Farmington Hills, Michigan. He has over

twenty years of experience in applying the latest aluminum, magnesium and steel technology to

automotive applications around the world. After joining Ducker, Dick has managed over 50 research

projects for the EPA, ORNL, Aluminum Association, AISI Automotive Applications Committee and

numerous aluminum and steel component suppliers worldwide.

Dick has a B.S. in Metallurgical Engineering from the University of Cincinnati and an MBA from the

University of Pittsburgh. He has also completed extensive course work in Managing Complex

Organizations at the M.I.T. Sloan School. Dick has over 50 years of experience in materials science

Under Dick’s guidance as both a client and team leader at Ducker:

Ducker Worldwide has collected data on the growth and development of aluminum and

magnesium content in automotive light vehicle applications on an annual basis since 1991. Data

collection and analysis on steel for automotive began in 1998

Ducker started its systematic efforts in North America, expanded into Europe and Japan and then

began collecting data for the remainder of the world in 2007

Data are collected on a “bottom-up” basis, meaning the market has been tracked on an OEM,

platform-by-platform and product-by-product basis. With metallurgists, engineers, and component

specialists on staff, Ducker has become a leading subject-matter-expert for the global automotive

industry on light weighting by increasing aluminum content, magnesium content and the use of the

“new “ steels across all light vehicle systems

29


Extra Slides




-

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000


2011 Production by Segment

EEU

North America

China

Japan

-

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40


Per

cen

t

2011 Segment Share of Production

EEU

China

North America

Japan

E/F

E/F

C Segment is important in

the EEU and China

D Segment and larger

vehicles are popular in NA



0

10000000

20000000

30000000

40000000

50000000

60000000

1990 2000 2010 2017

Re

gio

nal

Pro

du

ctio

n


Asia Pacific

North America

European Union

Eastern Europe

South America

Middle East/Africa



Total for all regions in 2017

is expected to be 98 Million.

We expect 75 Million in 2011

Calendar Year




Calendar Year

Asia Light Vehicle Production




0

5000000

10000000

15000000

20000000

25000000

1990 2000 2010 2017

Co

un

try

Pro

du

ctio

n

Vehicle Production by Major Country

China

India

Japan

South Korea

China is expected to assemble

over 23 Million vehicles in 2017.

It is a misconception that the

vehicles in China are all small.

The average vehicle in China is close

in size to the average EEU vehicle,

and uses more aluminum than

the average vehicle in Japan


23 Million


The latest data on the total mix of materials in North American light vehicles is

shown below

Total of 3,863 Pounds

1628, 42%

606, 15.6% 330, 8.6%

305, 7.9%

52, 1%

103, 3%

838, 21.9%

2010 Light Vehicle Content Pounds and Percent

Flat Rolled Steel

Other Steel

Aluminumm

Iron

Copper

Other Metals

All other Materials

1. Other steel is primarily

long products (rod, bar and

structural shapes)

2. Other metals are lead, zinc,

magnesium, titanium,

platinum and other precious

metals

3. Other materials are polymers,

glass, rubber, textiles, wood,

coatings and fluids such as

oil and gasoline

Historical Curb weight estimates have been raised.

This has forced us to lower the historical share for aluminum, and slightly raise our estimates for flat rolled steel


59.3 59.9 59.5 57.9 57.7 62.3

65.8 65.7

73.7 72.8 73.7 76.2 77.6 78.9 79.5 79.8 80

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Perc

en

t

North America Light Vehicle Body Architecture

Full Frame Unibody

The shift to more unibody vehicles will cost the steel industry over 500 pounds per vehicle or 20%,

but the impact on aluminum is less than 10 pounds per vehicle or 3%

4,050 LBS 3,775 LBS Impact of Architecture alone


A-Segment 0%

B-Segment 4%

C-Segment 23%

D-Segment 36%

E-Segment 15%

Mini Full-Frame 0%

Compact Full-Frame 3%

Full-Size Full-Frame 19%

Segment Share of 2012 NA Vehicle Production

Percent of aluminum weight???


Aluminum Suspension Arm

____ Million in 2012

Aluminum Steering Knuckle

____ Million in 2012


The differential “carrier” is the outside

protective housing of the entire differential

and rear axle assembly.

It is the part exposed to the outside

environment.

In North America, the differential “case” is the

part inside the differential carrier that houses

the gear

Front differential carriers are HPDC

aluminum. Rears are permanent mold

This part can weigh up to 16 pounds


Cab weighs

over 500 pounds

Ladder frame

Ladder frame

weighs 500 pounds

Closures weigh

over 300 pounds


Low volume aluminum components have now become high volume components

32% of all the light vehicles assembled

in North America in 2012 will use

an aluminum hood

25% of all the bumper beams

used in 2012 will be aluminum

Over 20 million aluminum

powertrain mounts

will be used in the 2012

light vehicles.

These parts can be cast,

extruded or forged


0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000

Unibody & FF Average

Full Frame Average

Full-Size Full-Frame

Compact /Mini Full-Frame

E-Segment

Unibody Average

D-Segment

C-Segment

B-Segment

A-Segment

3,798

4,902

5115.2

3718

4320.9

3,480

3597.4

2867.3

2721

2397.5

Pounds per Vehicle

2012 NA Light Vehicle Curb Weight


Ducker Worldwide --- Estimates of Aluminum Content in Light Vehicles

Source: Ducker 2011

23%

20%

24%

23%

37%

31%

34%

40%

20%

29%

25%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Total Vehicles

Blocks

Heads

Wheels

Transfer Cases

Drive Shafts

Control Arms

Knuckles

Subframes

Bumpers

Closures

GM Share of 2012 NA Total


Ducker Worldwide – Estimates of Light Vehicle Aluminum Content

9.3 7.6

2.2 0.2

13.7 14

1.6

11.1

45.3 44.7

57.9 56

4.6 2.8 3.7

93.2

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Po

un

ds

pe

r V

eh

icle

GM 2012 Aluminum Content per Light Vehicle By Component and System

Source: Ducker 2011


Ducker Worldwide ---- Estimates of Light Vehicle Aluminum Content

220.09 222.66

252.49 283.87

276.15 327.07

358.87 501.40

266.63 346.37

340.41 448.01

271.00 382.67

418.21 438.04

375.03 391.03

382.84 403.58

465.42 425.67

415.78 508.02

405.82 429.26 437.52

425.67 424.55 429.92

424.71 408.14

299.21 311.02

378.25 436.49

422.73 299.10

344.21 354.35

415.49

- 100.00 200.00 300.00 400.00 500.00 600.00

Chevrolet Aveo(T250/T255)

Chevrolet B-CUV(G1UC)

Chevrolet Sonic(G1SC)

Chevrolet Colorado(GMT355)

GMC Canyon(GMT355)

Buick Verano(D1SB)

Cadillac ATS(A1SL)

Chevrolet Corvette(GMX245)

Chevrolet Cruze(D1SC)

Chevrolet Volt(D1JCI)

Opel Ampera(D1JOI)

Buick LaCrosse(GMX353)

Buick Regal(GMX350)

Chevrolet Malibu(GMX351)

Cadillac CTS Coupe(GMX226)

Cadillac SRX(GMT166)

Chevrolet Captiva Sport(GMT311)

Chevrolet Equinox(GMT172)

GMC Terrain(GMT177)

Saab 9-4X(GMT168)

Chevrolet Camaro(GMX521)

Buick Enclave(GMT967)

Cadillac CTS Sport Wagon(GMX206)

Cadillac CTS(GMX322)

Cadillac XTS(P1LL)

Chevrolet Impala(GMX211)

Chevrolet Traverse(GMT561)

GMC Acadia(GMT968)

Cadillac Escalade ESV(GMT936)

Cadillac Escalade EXT(GMT946)

Cadillac Escalade(GMT926)

Chevrolet Avalanche(GMT941)

Chevrolet Express(GMT610)

Chevrolet Silverado HD(GMT911)

Chevrolet Silverado(GMT901)

Chevrolet Suburban(GMT931)

Chevrolet Tahoe(GMT921)

GMC Savana(GMT610)

GMC Sierra HD(GMT912)

GMC Sierra(GMT902)

GMC Yukon(GMT922)

2012 GM Pounds of Aluminum per Vehicle

Ducker expects

the 2012 GM

average to be

between 365 lbs.

and 370 lbs.

per vehicle

The North American

average is expected

to be between 342 lbs.

and 345 lbs. per

vehicle in 2012

Ducker: Ducker 2011


After a short period of slow growth, North American Light Vehicle aluminum

content growth will take a large step back toward the long term trend line in 2012

87

114

130 137 141

150 165

183

202

224

242 258

275

295 316 325

330

343

373

393

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Po

un

ds

Aluminum Pounds per Light Vehicle

History and Forecast

Forecast


250

1977 2025

2025 Aluminum by System

North American Forecast of Light Vehicle Aluminum Content

By 2025, we expect 40%

Hybrid and 10% Electric

engines in the U.S. This

is expected to have a positive impact

on aluminum mill products

Actual Values

Exponential Trend Line

Curb Weight of 1,600 kg & 4.3 **SMFP

*Powertrain includes some

losses to magnesium

Source: Ducker

NA is poised to

reclaim the

leadership role for

aluminum from the EEC

** SMFP is Square meters of footprint

One Scenario for 250 kg/vehicle

The slope of the curve at any

two points is determined by

actions in the prior 3-5 years

Saves 64 kg over 2011 average vehicle weight

(83 kilograms with weight compounding)

2012 Inversion



6 kg/v 4 kg/v 2 kg/v

Strictly Confidential

System/Component % kg

Powertrain 90% 95* Wheels 73% 26

Chassis, Suspension

and Steering 50% 20

Heat Transfer 100% 19

Closures 40% 30

Brakes 60% 5

Bumpers 20% 2

Door Inners 25% 9

Front Ends/BIW

Equivalents 15% 31

Shock Towers 70% 9

All Other NA 4

Total Share of Curb 15.6% 250


Aluminum content in North America will increase from 9% today to 16% by 2025

65.4% 8.6%

4%

22%

2010

Ferrous

Aluminum

Other Metals

Non Metallics

62.5%

10.5%

4%

23%

2015

Ferrous

Aluminum

Other Metals

Non Metallics

54%

16%

5%

25%

2025

Ferrous

Aluminum

Other Metals

Non Metallics

3863 Pounds +/- 25 3,725 Pounds +/- 50

3520 Pounds +/- 80

Excludes Secondary Weight Savings

45%

22%

15%

18%

Announced Plan for European Luxury Sedans

Ferrous

Light Metals

Polymers

All other

3,700 Pounds +/- 100


The substitution of Iron and Steel with Aluminum will be the most important driver

in future curb weight reduction excluding secondary weight savings

2539

330 155

839

2394

390

160

856

1905

550

165

900

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Ferrous Aluminum Other Metals Non Metallics

Po

un

ds

pe

r V

eh

icle

2010

2015

2025

3,200

3,300

3,400

3,500

3,600

3,700

3,800

3,900

4,000

4,100

2005 2010 2015 2025

Curb Weight One

Curb Weight Two

Linear (CurbWeight One)

Linear (CurbWeight Two)

Material content in North American Light Vehicles

Measuring Curb Weight is imprecise,

but no matter how it is measured

the trend is down

A 10%-15%% decline over

20 years is expected

+ 65%

- 25%


3000

3100

3200

3300

3400

3500

3600

3700

3800

3900

4000

2009 2012 2015 2025

Cu

rb W

eig

ht

in P

ou

nd

s

Future Curb Weight

Vehicle Mix Material Substitution Secondary Savings and Engine Resizeing

Vehicle Mix and Footprint

Materials

3,867 lbs.

A 500 pound (13%) decrease in curb weight

without sacrificing comfort, safety or

performance can be accomplished

84 pounds

259 pounds

170 pounds

Saves

2010

3,350 lbs.