11th cgd round to keep growth ablaze

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Potential CGD geographical areas: 65

65 new geographical areas in 11th round

11th CGD round to keep growth ablaze

In a much-awaited move, the Petroleum and Natural Gas Regulatory Board (PNGRB) has kick-started the 11th round of city gas distribution (CGD) auction process with bids likely to be invited in December.

Highlights: i) 65 new geographical areas (GAs) have been shortlisted, in addition to 227 new GA licences authorised during the past three

years. All in all, gas coverage would thus extend to 70% of population from less than 20% at present. ii) This shall sustain 10–14% annual volume growth, perhaps into the next decade. Accordingly, we argue stock valuations would expand. iii) Going by past bidding patterns, Adani Gas followed by Gujarat Gas and IGL might emerge as the largest bidders. MGL is unlikely to bid aggressively.

CGD poised to cover 70% of population versus ~20% at present…

The government targets to triple CGD volumes by 2030 as these 11 new licensing

rounds would cover 70% of the population from 20% at present. The speed at which

the 9th and 10th rounds of bidding had concluded demonstrates the government’s

intent to achieve its target of gas making up 15% of India’s energy mix by 2030.

Government had earlier set aggressive targets for CGD directing 15mn households

across India to have access to PNG, almost quadrupling in next four–five years.

Based on 65 new GAs, which will be open for bidding, the PNGRB is increasing its

focus on regions beyond Delhi, Maharashtra and Gujarat (exhibit 5). We expect new

GAs to start contributing materially post-2025 to overall CGD consumption.

…but some bumps along the way

The PNGRB targets to invite bids in December, but we believe it lacks a full suite of

directors on the board, which is stalling progress on the matter. While some GAs

are large – Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Andhra Pradesh and West Bengal – the list also

includes a long tail. Meanwhile, absence of gas pipeline infrastructure may limit

interest in four GAs. We remain sceptical though on completion of work by some of

the past successful bidders within stipulated time frames given very aggressive PNG

connections and CNG stations targets bid during the past two–three rounds.

Long-term positive: IGL, GGL to leverage expertise, balance sheets

While it is too early to make a call, going by past bidding patterns, Adani Gas

followed by Gujarat Gas and IGL could be the largest bidders. MGL did not show

much interest during past biddings. We believe incumbents IGL and GGL are best

placed to leverage their expertise and strong balance sheets. Accordingly, they will

uniquely pursue high-potential GAs while CNG usage across existing network would

also perk up on enhanced intercity infrastructure.

Overall, we believe a very long and sustainable period of high-growth phase for the

CGD industry shall enable expansion of stock valuations. We have a ‘BUY’ on all

three companies and our pecking order is: i) IGL (TP: INR 703), GGL (TP: INR942) and

MGL (TP: INR 1,480). For more, please refer to our latest CNG moat intact: No

pressure from EVs

227

292

65

0

60

120

180

240

300

GAs awardedso far

Round11

Potential

Nu

mb

er o

f ar

eas

(No

.)

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

1st

- 2

00

9

2n

d -

20

09

3rd

- 2

01

1

4th

- 2

01

4

5th

- 2

01

5

6th

- 2

01

6

7th

- 2

01

6

8th

- 2

01

6

9th

- 2

01

8

10

th -

20

18

11

th -

20

21

(No

s)

Areas offered Areas awarded

India Equity Research Oil & Gas September 20, 2021

CITY GAS DISTRIBUTION SECTOR UPDATE

Jal Irani Shubham Mittal Iqbal Khan +91 (22) 6620 3087 +91 (22) 4063 5459 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]

https://www.edelweissresearch.com/Reports/Get/C48ABCB4-96FB-4B8F-96C1-AB6EBD196D6E

https://www.edelweissresearch.com/Reports/Get/C48ABCB4-96FB-4B8F-96C1-AB6EBD196D6E

CITY GAS DISTRIBUTION

Edelweiss Securities Limited

2 Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset

Rapid growth in potential CGD geographical areas to 292

Source: Edelweiss Research

Giant leap—65 new geographical areas in 11th round


Revised bidding criteria 9th round onwards (since 2018): Sharper focus on PNG/CNG/pipeline infrastructure

Criteria prior to 2018 (1st-8th rounds) Criteria prior from 2018 (9st-11th rounds)

Requirement Weight (%) Requirement Weight (%)

Lowness of present value of network tariff over 25

years 70 Lowness of Transportation rate for CGD

(INR/MMBTU) 10

Lowness of PV of compression charges for CNG over

25 years 30 Lowness of Transportation rate for CNG (INR/kg) 10

Highness of No. of CNG Stations to be installed

within 8 years from authorization 20

Highness of No. of residential PNG connections to be

achieved within 8 years from authorization 50

Highness of inch-km of pipeline to be laid within 8

years from authorization 10


227

292

65

0

60

120

180

240

300

GAs awardedso far

Round11

Potential

Nu

mb

er o

f ar

eas

(No

.)

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

1st -2009

2nd -2009

3rd -2011

4th -2014

5th -2015

6th -2016

7th -2016

8th -2016

9th -2018

10th -2018

11th -2021

(No

s.)

Areas offered Areas awarded



Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset 3

IGL and MGL have cleaner balance sheets; IGL, GGL higher growth

FY21 (INR mn) IGL MGL GGL

Volume growth FY16-20 (%) 12.6 4.9 14.2

Volume growth FY21-25 (%) 16.2 11.9 12.0

PAT 11,726 6,196 12,777

Operating cash flow 15,460 8,055 16,552

Capex 8,829 3,146 7,513

FCFF 6,631 4,909 9,038

Total borrowings - - 7,700

Cash 11,323 15,368 3,210

Net (cash) / borrowings (11,323) (15,368) 4,490

Net debt/equity (x) (0.2) (0.5) 0.1





11th round bidding places more emphasis on regions outside Delhi, Maharashtra and Gujarat


S.no Geographical Area State Population

1 Kurnool, Guntur, and Prakasam districts Andhra Pradesh 1,23,38,724

2 Nagaon, Morigaon, Hojai, Karbi Anglong and West Karbi Anglong districts Assam 47,37,504

3 Lakhimpur, Dhemaji , Darrang, Udalgiri, Sonitpur and Biswanath districts Assam 54,12,548

4 Kokrajhar and Dhubri districts Assam 28,36,400

5 Baksa, Barpeta, Bongaigaon, Chirang and Nalbari districts Assam 46,36,302

6 Darbhanga, Madhubani, Supaul, Sitamarhi and Sheohar districts Bihar 1,47,33,660

7 Gopalganj, Siwan, West Champaran, East Champaran and Deoria Bihar & Uttar Pradesh 1,80,27,835

8 Baloda Bazar, Gariyaband and Raipur districts Chhattisgarh 40,63,872

9 Kabirdham, Raj Nandgaon and Kanker districts Chhattisgarh 31,08,600

10 Mungeli, Bemetara, Durg, Balod and Dhamtari districts Chhattisgarh 48,45,360

11 Jashpur, Raigarh, Janjgir-Champa and Mahasamund districts Chhattisgarh 49,98,114

12 Koriya and Surajpur districts Chhattisgarh 14,47,960

13 Balrampur and Surguja districts Chhattisgarh 15,70,843

14 Kondagaon, Bastar and Sukma districts Chhattisgarh 16,63,358

15 Narayanpur, Bijapur and Dantewada Chhattisgarh 6,78,529

16 Mandi, Kullu, Kinnaur and Lahaul & Spiti districts Himachal Pradesh 15,53,365

17 Kangra and Chamba districts Himachal Pradesh 20,29,155

18 Jammu, Udhampur, Reasi, Samba and Kathua districts UT of Jammu and Kashmir 33,34,943

19 Gumla, Latehar, Lohardaga, Simdega, Garhwa and Khunti districts Jharkhand 46,68,228

20 Chikkaballapur district Karnataka 12,55,104

21 Idukki, Kottayam and Pathanamthitta districts Kerala 42,80,937

22 Agar Malwa, Neemuch, Mandsaur and Jhalawar districts Madhya Pradesh & Rajasthan 41,48,885

23 Burhanpur, Khandwa, Khargone and Harda districts Madhya Pradesh 45,11,419

24 Tikamgarh, Niwari, Chattarpur and Panna districts Madhya Pradesh 42,24,061

25 Betul, Chhindwara, Seoni and Balaghat districts Madhya Pradesh 67,47,113

26 Damoh, Jabalpur, Katni, Mandla, Umaria and Dindori districts Madhya Pradesh 74,23,737

27 Hoshangabad, Narsinghpur, Sagar and Vidisha districts Madhya Pradesh 61,70,537

28 Buldana, Nanded and Parbhani districts Maharashtra 77,83,636

29 Beed, Jalgaon and Jalna districts Maharashtra 87,74,012

30 Akola, Hingoli and Washim districts Maharashtra 41,88,411

31 Amravati and Yavatmal districts Maharashtra 56,60,793

32 Chandrapur and Wardha districts Maharashtra 35,05,081

33 Nagpur district Maharashtra 46,53,570

34 Bhandara, Gondiya and Garchiroli districts Maharashtra 35,95,783

35 Alirajpur, Nandurbar and Barwani districts Maharashtra & Madhya Pradesh 37,63,175

36 Koraput, Malkangiri, and Nabarangpur districts Odisha 32,13,785

37 Gajapati, Kandhamal, Boudh and Sonepur districts Odisha 23,62,272

38 Rayagada, Kalahandi, Bolangir and Nuapada districts Odisha 48,04,159

39 Pathankot district Punjab 6,76,598

40 Tarn Taran district Punjab 11,19,627

41 Fazilka (except area already authorized), Ganganagar and Hanumangarh districts Punjab & Rajasthan 47,67,425

42 Bikaner and Churu districts Rajasthan 44,03,484

43 Jhunjhunu, Sikar and Nagaur districts Rajasthan 81,22,121

44 Dausa, Karauli, Sawai Madhopur and Tonk districts Rajasthan 58,49,534

45 Dharmapuri and Krishnagiri districts Tamil Nadu 33,86,652

46 Tiruvannamalai and Villupuram districts Tamil Nadu 59,23,748

47 Ariyalur and Perambalur districts Tamil Nadu 13,20,117

48 Namakkal and Tiruchirapalli districts Tamil Nadu 44,48,891

49 Pudukottai, Sivaganga and Thanjavur districts Tamil Nadu 53,63,336

50 Madurai, Theni and Virudhnagar districts Tamil Nadu 62,26,439

51 Kanyakumari, Thoothukudi and Tiruneveli Kattabo districts Tamil Nadu 66,97,783

52 Dindigul and Karur districts Tamil Nadu 32,24,268

53 The Nilgiris and Erode districts Tamil Nadu 29,87,138

54 Nizamabad, Adilabad, Nirmal, Mancherial and Kumuram Bheem Asifabad districts Telangana 52,92,574

55 Jogulamba Gadwal, Nagarkurnool, Mahabubnagar, Narayanpet, Wanaparthy and Yadgir districtsTelangana & Karnataka 47,85,208

56 South Tripura and Sepahijala district Tripura 9,37,965

57 Dhalai, North Tripura, Unakoti and Khowai Tripura 13,60,183

58 Amroha & Sambhal (except area already authorized) districts Uttar Pradesh 36,30,870

59 Kasganj district Uttar Pradesh 14,36,719

60 Purulia and Bankura districts West Bengal 65,26,789

61 East Mednipore, West Mednipore and Jhargram districts West Bengal 1,10,09,332

62 Alipurduar and Koch Bihar West Bengal 42,45,104

63 Banda, Chitrakoot and Mahoba Uttar Pradesh 36,67,098

64 Pauri Garhwal, Uttarkashi, Rudraprayag and Tehri Garhwal districts Uttarakhand 18,78,573

65 Pithoragarh, Champawat, Almora, Chamoli and Bageshwar districts Uttarakhand 20,17,096




Areas offered in earlier ten rounds


Round Areas offered Areas bid

Kota a

Sonipat a

Mathura a

Kakinada a

Meerut a

Dewas a

Ghaziabad

Allahabad a

Jhansi a

Rajahmundry

Yanam

Shahdol

Chandigarh a

Asansol-Durgapur

Ludhiana a

Jalandhar a

Panipat

Jamnagar a

Bhavnagar a

Kutch-East a

Kutch-West a

Ernakulam a

Ranga

Nalgonda

Khammam

Bengaluru a

Raigarh a

Pune a

Thane a

UT of Daman a

UT of Dadra and Nagar Haveli a

Shahjahanpur

Guna

Panipat a

Amritsar a

East Godavari a

Belgaum a

Ahmadnagar

Krishna a

Muzaffarnagar

West Godawari a

Badaun

Aligarh

Bulandshahr

Banaskantha

Tumkur a

Latur

Dhar

Dahod

Haridwar a

Dharwad a

Shivpuri

Bidar

Osmanabad

Udham Singh Nagar a

Round 1

Round 2

Round 3

Round 4

Round 5




Areas offered in earlier ten rounds (contd.)



Dhar a

Dahod a

Ahmadnagar

Banaskantha a

Saharanpur a

Raebareli

Mainpuri

Ramabai

Chitradurga

Bhiwani

Ratnagiri a

Amreli a

Bhatinda a

Auraiya

Patan a

Baghpat

Etawah

Yamunanagar a

Shahdol

Gadag

Jhabua

Nainital

Rewari a

North a

Datia

Rupnagar a

Fatehgarh a

Dahej-Vagra a

Amethi

Ahmedabad

Anand a

Panchmahal a

Rewa

Rohtak

Jaipur

Solapur a

Davanagari

Udaipur

Bhopal

Karnal a

Ambala & Kurukshetra a

South Goa a

Yanam

Bulandshahr a

Bagpat a

Kolhapur a

Round 7

Round 8

Round 6







Srikakulam, Visakhapatnam & Vizianagaram a

Cachar, Hailakandi & Karimganj a

Kamrup & Kamrup Metropolitan a

Aurangabad, Kaimur & Rohtas a

Begusarai a

Gaya & Nalanda a

Diu & Gir Somnath

Surendranagar a

Barwala & Ranpur Talukas a

Navsari, Surat, Tapi & The Dangs a

Junagadh a

Kheda, Morbi & Mahisagar a

Narmada (Rajpipla) a

Porbandar a

Panchkula , Sirmaur, Shimla & Solan a

Bhiwani, Charkhi Dadri & Mahendragarh a

Hisar a

Jhajjar a

Sonipat & Jind a

Nuh & Palwal a

Bilaspur, Hamirpur & Una a

Bokaro, Hazaribagh & Ramgarh a

Giridih & Dhanbad a

Chitradurga & Davanagere a

Udupi a

Ballari & Gadag a

Bidar a

Dakshina Kannada a

Ramanagara a

Kozhikode & Wayanad a

Malappuram a

Kannur, Kasaragod & Mahe a

Palakkad & Thrissur a

Bhopal & Rajgarh Districts a

Guna District a

Rewa District a

Satna & Shahdol Districts a

Ahmednagar & Aurangabad Districts a

Valsad, Dhule & Nashik Districts a

Latur & Osmanabad Districts a

Sangli & Satara Districts a

Sindhudurg District a

Angul & Dhekanal Districts a

Round 9







Muzaffarpur, Vaishali, Saran and Samastipur Districts a

Nadia and North 24 Parganas Districts a

Chittoor, Kolar and Vellore Districts a

Araria, Purnia, Katihar and Kishanganj Districts a

Alappuzha, Kollam and Thiruvananthapuram Districts a

Darjeeling, Jalpaiguri and Uttar Dinajpur Districts a

Anantapur and YSR (Kadapa) Districts a

Azamgarh,Mau and Ballia Districts a

Howrah (Except Area already authorized) and Hooghly (Except Area already authorized) Districtsa

Mysuru, Mandya and Chamarajanagar District a

South 24 Parganas Districts a

Farrukhabad, Etah and Hardoi Districts a

Jaunpur And Ghazipur Districts a

Bareilly (Except area already authorized), Pil ibhit and Rampur Districts a

Ajmer, Pali and Rajsamand Districts a

Jhabua, Banswara, Ratlam and Dungarpur Districts a

Shahjahanpur and Budaun Districts a

Jhansi,Bhind,Jalaun, Lalitpur and Datia Districts a

Gonda And Barabanki Districts a

Khagaria, Saharsa And Madhepura Districts a

Uttara Kannada, Haveri and Shivamogga Districts a

Anuppur, Bilaspur and Korba Districts a

Mirzapur, Chandauli and Sonbhadra Districts a

Lakhisarai, Munger And Bhagalpur Districts a

Bagalkot, Koppal and Raichur Districts a

Arwal, Jehanabad, Bhojpur And Buxar Districts a

Kalaburagi and Vijayapura Districts a

Chikkamagaluru, Hassan and Kodagu Districts a

Raisen, Shajapur And Sehore Districts a

Bijnor and Nainital Districts a

Sri Potti Sriramulu Nellore District a

Ujjain (Except area already authorized), Dewas (Except area already authorized) And Indore (Except area already authorized) Districtsa

Basti and Ambedkar Nagar Districts a

Deoghar, Sheikhpura And Jamui Districts a

Kanpur (Except Area Already Authorized), Fatehpur And Hamirpur Districts a

Mainpuri And Kannauj Districts a

Sirsa, Fatehabad and Mansa (Punjab) Districts a

Hoshiarpur And Gurdaspur Districts a

Chatra And Palamu Districts a

Jalore and Sirohi Districts a

Ferozpur, Faridkot and Sri Muktsar Sahib Districts a

Sidhi And Singrauli Districts a

Nawad and Koderma Districts a

Morena District a

Shivpuri District a

Gwalior (Accept area already authorized) and Sheopur Districts a

West Singhbhum Districts a

Seraikela and Kharsawan Districts a

Kaithal District a

Ashoknagar District a

Round 10




India’s gas infrastructure map


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Aditya Narain

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