100 monday, june 18, 2020 20 high canada google …...google community mobilitybaseline, 7 • daily...

1

GLOBAL FX STRATEGY | FX QUICK NOTES Monday, June 18, 2020

High-Frequency Dashboard: Tracking the Post-Lockdown Recovery (June 18, 2020)

Shaun Osborne

Chief FX Strategist

461.945.4538

[email protected]

Follow us on Twitter @SCOTIABANKFX

Google Community Mobility

• Daily Google data tracking movement trends continues to point to a gradual recovery in economic activity. Germany and Japan are generally

taking the lead across all metrics, with activity in workplaces ‘only’ about 15-20% lower than their respective baselines (Jan 3-Feb 6) compared to

between 30% and 35% in Canada, the US, and Mexico, while the UK falls behind at ~45% lower as reopening efforts in the country lag following

the UK government’s slow response at the onset of the COVID-19 outbreak. Mobility in Mexico remains stagnant.

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20

Retail & recreation Grocery & pharmacyParks Transit stationsWorkplaces Residential

Source: Google, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

Canada Google Community Mobility % change from baseline, 7-dma

(Last: Jun 12)

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20



US Google Community Mobility% change from baseline, 7-dma

(Last: Jun 12)

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20



UK Google Community Mobility% change from baseline, 7-dma

(Last: Jun 12)

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20



Germany Google Community Mobility% change from baseline, 7-dma

(Last: Jun 12)

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20



Japan Google Community Mobility% change from baseline, 7-dma

(Last: Jun 12)

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20



Mexico Google Community Mobility% change from baseline, 7-dma

(Last: Jun 12)

Juan Manuel Herrera

FX Strategist

416.866.6781

[email protected]

-80

-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

20

US GermanyUK JapanMexico Canada


Google Community Mobility: Workplaces

% change from baseline, 7-dma

(Last: Jun 12) -90

-80

-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

20



Google Community Mobility: Retail


(Last: Jun 12) -80

-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

20



Google Community Mobility: Transit Stns.


(Last: Jun 12)

https://twitter.com/Scotiabankfx

2


0

20

40

60

80

100

03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20


Canada and US:Topic "Unemployment Benefits"

respective peak = 100(Last: Jun 15)

Canada7-day ma

US7-day ma

Cda "CERB"

7-day ma

Cda"CESB"

7-day ma

0

20

40

60

80

100

03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20


Canada and US:Search Term "New Car"


Canada7-day ma

US7-day ma

0

20

40

60

80

100

03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20


Canada and US:Search Term "Rent Relief"


Canada7-day ma

US7-day ma

0

20

40

60

80

100

03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20


Canada and US:Search Term "Covid Test"


Canada7-day ma

US7-day ma

20

40

60

80

100

03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20


Canada and US:Search Term "Realtor"


Canada7-day ma

US7-day ma

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

01/20 02/20 03/20 04/20 05/20

Driving

Walking

Transit

Baseline

Source: Apple, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

Canada Apple Mobility Trends

routing requests, 7-dma(Last: Jun 16)

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

01/20 02/20 03/20 04/20 05/20

Driving

Walking

Transit

Baseline


US Apple Mobility Trends


0

25

50

75

100

125

150

01/20 02/20 03/20 04/20 05/20

Driving

Walking

Transit

Baseline


Germany Apple Mobility Trends


Google Search Trends

• Daily Google Trends data shows a marked decline in search interest for unemployment benefits in Canada—where searches for the federal

government’s other income support programmes, CERB (now expanded by 8 months) and CESB, supplanted broad searches for employment

insurance—and the US—where searches remain nevertheless elevated and mirror the lack of an additional decline in the number of weekly initial

claims. “Bankruptcy” search interest has declined from its peak in May but has recently accelerated in the US, while searches for “realtor” and

“new car” have risen which suggests a rebound in demand for these on top of the seasonal increase in auto and home purchases around this

time of year.

0

20

40

60

80

100

03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20


Canada and US:Topic "Bankruptcy"


Canada7-day ma

US7-day ma

Apple Mobility Trends

• Daily Apple data tracking Apple Maps routing requests shows that driving and walking mobility in Canada, the US, and Germany now exceeds

their respective baseline levels of mid-January. However, only in Germany has there been a significant increase in transit usage that points to a

faster return to economic normality than in North America as lockdown measures are lifted; see Oxford U’s lockdown stringency index that shows

Germany’s restrictions are now significantly more relaxed than in most of its peers.

3


Scotiabank Canadian Merchant Data

• Scotiabank debit and credit card payments data compiled by our Economics, Customer Insight,

and Data & Analytics teams show that retail transactions across core merchant categories such as

entertainment, clothing, and restaurants remain heavily depressed in Canada when compared to

the same period last year; note that the data may partly underestimate the decline in sales owing

to increased usage of cards instead of cash to avoid contagion. Total credit and debit transactions

fell by close to 30% y/y in April and now stand nearly unchanged versus 2019. While the lockdown

measures, travel bans, and fear of contagion have sharply hit the travel industry—with transaction

volumes down about 60% y/y as of a week ago—other sectors have seen an increase in sales as

people spend more time at home (e.g. computer software sales are up about 90% y/y). For more

details see here. For questions contact Nikita Perevalov ([email protected]) or

Rene Lalonde ([email protected]).

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20

TravelRestaurantsHardware storesAutomotiveClothingEntertainment

14-day ma of daily dollar volume oftransactions, y/y % (Last: Jun 8)

Sources: Scotiabank Economics, Customer Insights, Data & Analytics.

Scotiabank Canadian Transactions Data:Sales by Merchant Category

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20

Telecom servicesComputer NetworkComputer SoftwareGrocer iesDigital goods

14-day ma of daily dollar volume oftransactions, y/y % (Last: Jun 8)

Sources: Scotiabank Economics, Customer Insights, Data & Analytics.

Scotiabank Canadian Transactions Data:Sales by Merchant Category

Scotia FX Risk Appetite Index

• Our daily risk appetite index—a factor of

financial risk variables such as CDS spreads

and market volatility—has bounced off its

200DMA owing to ‘second-wave’ concerns

but remains around its highest point since

early-March as the gradual reopening of the

global economy and rising commodity prices

lead investors back to riskier assets.

-3.00

-2.50

-2.00

-1.50

-1.00

-0.50

0.00

0.50

1.00

10/19 12/19 02/20 04/20 06/20

Source: Bloomberg, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

Scotiabank FX Strategy Risk Appetite Index

index, 2008-present avg. = 0(Last: Jun 17)

100DMA

Risk appetite index

200DMA

40DMA

-100

-75

-50

-25

0

25

50

75

100

01/20 03/20 05/20

AllAcc/FoodGroceriesHealthTrans/WHArts/Ent/RecGenMerch/Apparel

Source: Chetty, Friedman, Hendren, Stepner (2020), Opportunity Insights, Aff inity Solutions,

Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

US Credit/Debit Card Spending by Sector

% change from Jan 4-31 baseline, 7-dma (Last: Jun 10)

-50

-25

0

25

01/20 03/20 05/20

TopMiddleBottom QuartileAll

Source: Chetty, Friedman, Hendren, Stepner (2020),Opportunity Insights, Aff inity Solutions,


US Credit/Debit Card Spending by ZIP Code Median Income Quartile% change from Jan 4-31 baseline, 7-dma (Last: Jun 10)

-75

-50

-25

0

25

50

01/20 03/20 05/20

MfgFinanceProf/Biz svcsEduc/HealthLeisure/HospTotal

Source: Chetty, Friedman, Hendren, Stepner (2020), Opportunity Insights, Burning Glass,


US Job Postings by Industry

% change from Jan 4-31 baseline, 7-dma (Last: Jun 12)

Affinity Solutions US Card Spending Data

• Affinity Solutions debit and credit card payments data show that retail sales in the US remain 11%

off their baseline level earlier in the year with grocery purchases remaining elevated as individuals

spend more time at home while spend on recreation and transportation remains quite depressed

at over 50% lower than baseline, while accommodation and food spending is about 35-40% lower.

Spending on general merchandise and apparel has rebounded to ‘only’ 13% below baseline.

• With greater marginal propensity to consume, spending by people living in regions where the

median income is in the bottom quartile of the income distribution has rebounded to sit at less than

5% when compared to baseline with the large jump in the series following the distribution of the

Federal government's $1,200 stimulus cheque in mid-April. This is compared to those in higher-

income areas where spending is still about 17% lower—note that the stimulus cheque amount

declines for joint incomes above $150k/yr and above $75k/yr for single-filers.

Burning Glass US Jobs Postings

• Weekly Burning Glass data show that US job

postings have materially rebounded from

their late-April/early-May depths, when

compared to their January baseline. Total job

postings are about 16% lower compared to

39% lower in late-April. Openings in the

leisure and hospitality sector have increased

but are still ~25% below their baseline. On

the other hand, openings in financial services

are only about 13% lower.

https://www.scotiabank.com/content/dam/scotiabank/sub-brands/scotiabank-economics/english/documents/insights-views/2020-06-11_I&V.pdf

mailto:[email protected]


4


11

13

15

17

19

21

01/20 04/20 07/20 10/20

20172018201920202017-19 avg

Source: IESO, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

Ontario Energy Demand

mn mw h 5pm, 14-dma(Last: Jun 17)

latest: 97% of avg

30

40

50

60

70

80

01/20 04/20 07/20 10/20

20172018201920202017-19 avg

Source: RTE, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

France Energy Demand


latest: 92% of avg

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

01/20 04/20 07/20 10/20

Thousands

20172018201920202017-19 avg

Source: EIA, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

US Midwest Energy Demand


latest: 93% of avg

Energy Demand

• Hourly energy demand data shows the

impact of the economic lockdown on

industrial sector activity as a large share of

factories and offices remain idle—although

in the case of the latter some of this

demand is substituted by residential

demand. Energy demand in the countries/

regions that we track has consistently been

around 10% lower than the average of the

previous three years over the past few

weeks, while abnormally high temperatures

in Ontario and the US Midwest increase air

-conditioning usage temporarily.

22

27

32

37

42

47

52

01/20 03/20 05/20 07/20 09/20 11/20

20172018201920202017-19 avg

Source: TEPCO, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

Japan Energy Demandmn mw h 5pm, 14-dma(Last: Jun 17)

latest = 104% of avg

10

12

14

16

18

20

01/20 04/20 07/20 10/20

20172018201920202017-19 avg

Source: SMARD, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

Germany Energy Demand


latest = 91% of avg.

Indeed New Job Postings

• Online daily job postings on Indeed in

Canada and the US remain depressed

relative to the same period last year as firms

hold back on hiring plans, with the trend in

new job postings—on Indeed for a week or

less—in Canada down by around 29%

relative to the 2019 trend whereas in the US

they are only down about 16%. In Canada,

hospitality and tourism postings are the most

impacted at 62% below trend (61% in the

US).

New York Fed Economic Index

• The NY Fed’s weekly economic index which

aggregates ten different daily and weekly

indices points to a year-on-year decline in

GDP of around –8.4% in early-June which

would approximately translate into a 29% q/q

annualised decline for the full quarter—the

median estimate of economists surveyed by

Bloomberg sits at –35% q/q.

-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

01/20 02/20 03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20

Source: FRBNY, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

US FRBNY WeeklyEconomic Indexy/y % GDP grow th equivalent(Last: Jun 18)

-0.60

-0.40

-0.20

0.00

0.20

0.40

01/20 02/20 03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20

Source: FRBSF, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

San Fran Fed US Daily News Sentiment Index

index(Last: Jun 14)

San Fran Fed News Index

• The Federal Reserve Bank of San

Francisco’s Daily News Sentiment Index,

which tracks the implied tone of news articles

in 16 major US newspapers, points to only a

minor improvement in sentiment since its

trough in late-March, which may indirectly

keep consumer confidence subdued. The

recent decline likely follows from social

unrest in the US.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

02/20 03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20

US (2019) US (2020)

Canada (2019) Canada (2020)

Source: Indeed, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

Indeed New Job Postings

Feb 1 = 100, 7-dma (Last: Jun 12)

5


-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

01/20 02/20 03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20

US m. vehicles & eq.US ex mveCanada m. vehicles & eq.Canada ex mve

Source: CN, AAR, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

Canada and US Rail Merchandise Shipments

y/y % change in carloads(Last: Jun 12)

Rail Shipments

• Weekly rail shipments data shows that

demand for motor vehicles and equipment in

North America has recovered, but remains

weak, after grinding to a halt as factories

shut down and are now resuming production,

while shipments of other goods remain

depressed relative to last year.

US Steel Production

• Weekly US steel production data suggests

that activity in the manufacturing and

construction sectors has not yet significantly

improved for steel mills to ramp up

production—which stands around 36% than

at this point last year.

Shanghai Steel Inventories

• Chinese industrial output appears to have

recovered quickly, but possible stalled, as

steel inventory levels in the country are

depleted from record-highs as reflected by

weekly Shanghai storage data for both

traders and steel mills. Steel mill inventories

are nearly at ‘normal’ levels.

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Source: Antaike, Mysteel, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

Shanghai Steel Inventories

mn tonnes(Last: Jun 12)

2020traders

(LHS)

2019traders

(LHS)

mn tonnes(Last: Jun 12)

2020steel mills

(RHS)

2019steel mills

(RHS)1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Source: AISI, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

US Steel Production

mn short tonnes(Last: Jun 12)

2020

2019

Germany Truck Mileage Index

• Daily truck mileage data for Germany—a

close indicator of industrial production—

showed a sharp rebound in economic activity

in Europe’s largest economy before

retreating in the past week. As of June 10,

miles traveled by trucks in Germany were

down by around 8%—from as high as –1%in

the previous week—when compared to the

same period in 2019. This series and other

data again point to the German economy

recovering at a fast pace as lockdown

measures are lifted.

ShopperTrak Retail Volumes

• ShopperTrak data show that retail activity

has picked up quickly in France and

Germany to almost match the decline in

Japan on a year-on-year basis following the

reopening of non-essential businesses.

Retail sales in the UK remain nevertheless

depressed with most shops in the country

closed as of the latest observation; retailers

in England were allowed to reopen on June

15th.

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

01/20 02/20 03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20

UK

France

Germany

Hong Kong

Source: Shopper Trak, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

ShopperTrak Retail Volumes

y/y % change(Last: Jun 8)

-16

-12

-8

-4

0

4

10/19 12/19 02/20 04/20 06/20

Source: Destatis, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

Germany Truck Mileage Index

y/y % change(Last: Jun 10)

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

10/19 12/19 02/20 04/20 06/20

Source: Bundesbank, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

Bundesbank Weekly Activity Index

q/q % implied change in real GDP(Last: Jun 14)

Bundesbank Activity Index

• The Bundesbank’s high-frequency economic

activity index estimates that the German

economy was contracting at a rate of around

7.5% in the second quarter, thus not yet

reflecting the increase in activity in the

industrial and services sectors in the country.

6


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

01/20 02/20 03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20

Source: Flight Radar, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

Flight Radar TrackedCommercial Flights Globally

000s per day(Last: Jun 17)

7DMA

TSA Checkpoint Throughput

• Daily US TSA shows that traffic through US

airports remains heavily subdued at less than

20% when compared to 2019, with an

average of only 450k travelers going through

security screenings in the past week versus

over 2.5mn last year. As domestic and

international restrictions are lifted we should

see a more important pick-up in travel

activity.

Flight Radar Commercial Flights

• Daily flights data from Flight Radar points to

an unsurprising massive decline in air travel

(about 60% lower compared to early-2020)

owing to travel bans and other strict

restrictions on domestic and international

travel. As some countries eradicate (or

sharply limit the spread of the virus) some

travel will resume between ‘COVID-free’

nations.

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

02/20 03/20 04/20 05/20

Source: TSA, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

TSA Checkpoint Travelers

000s passengers(Last: Jun 14)

2020 7-dma(Latest = 17.5% of 2019)

2019 7-dma

-120

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

02/20 03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20

AustraliaGermanyMexicoUKUSCanada

Source: Opentable, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

OpenTable Restaurant Visits

y/y% change(Last: Jun 17)

OpenTable Restaurant Visits

• Daily OpenTable restaurant foot traffic data

points to a solid rebound in restaurant visits

in Germany and Australia (pent-up demand)

after governments allowed these businesses

to reopen—under certain conditions. The

relaxation of measures in some US states

and Canadian provinces has also marginally

begun to feed into the data.

0

20

40

60

80

100

02/20 03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20

China GermanyUK JapanMexico New ZealandUS Canada

Source: Hale, Webster, Petherick, Phillips, and Kira (2020). Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker, Blavatnik School of Government , Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

Incorporates public information on 17 indicators of government responses.

Oxford Lockdown Stringency Index

100 = strictest response

Lockdown Stringency Index

• Oxford University's lockdown stringency index—a useful guideline to track containment measures

around the globe—shows the progress that New Zealand has made on bringing the coronavirus

under control which has allowed them to loosen restrictions that therefore leaves the country

better positioned for a prompt economic rebound. Similarly, Germany continues to loosen

restrictions which will likely result in an outperformance of the country's economy within the euro-

bloc. After a slow response to the outbreak, the Oxford index suggests that restrictions in Mexico

are the strictest across major economies, behind China which recently re-imposed some

measures owing to an outbreak in Beijing.

7


Source: Bloomberg, Scotiabank FICC Strategy. First data point is March 3.

New Confirmed COVID-19 Cases by US State and Canadian Province, 7-day ma (Last : June 17)

WA

OR

CA

HI

ID

NV

UT

AZ

MT

CO

NM

ND

SD

NE

KS

OK

TX

MN

IA

MO

AR

LA

KY

TN

MS

OH PA

VA

SC

GA

MD

NJ

NY MA

VT

CT

DE

NH

ME

RIWY

WV

NC

AL

DC

MI

IN

IL

WI

FL

BC AB SK MB ON QC NB NS

NLPE

AK

8


IMPORTANT NOTICE and DISCLAIMER:

This report is prepared by Scotiabank as a resource for clients of Scotiabank for information and discussion purposes only. This report should be considered a marketing

communication and has not been prepared by a member of the research department of Scotiabank, it is solely for the use of sophisticated institutional investors, and this

report does not constitute investment advice or any personal recommendation to invest in a financial instrument or “investment research” as defined by the UK Prudential

Regulation Authority or UK Financial Conduct Authority. This document has not been prepared in accordance with EU legal requirements designed to promote the independ-

ence of investment research and the information contained in this publication is not subject to any prohibition in the EU on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment

research. Opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are our own as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. The information and opinions

contained herein have been compiled or arrived at from publically available sources believed reliable but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to

their accuracy or completeness and neither the information nor the forecast shall be taken as a representation for which Scotiabank or any of its employees incur any re-

sponsibility. Neither Scotiabank nor its representatives accept any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this report or its contents. This report is not, and is

not constructed as, an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any financial instruments and has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or

particular needs of any recipient. It is not intended to provide legal, tax, accounting or other advice. Scotiabank and/or its respective officers, directors or employees may

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referred to herein. Scotiabank may have acted as financial advisor and/or underwriter for certain of the corporations mentioned herein and may have received and may

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100 monday, june 18, 2020 20 high canada google …...google community mobilitybaseline, 7 • daily...

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