Two Theories of Risk Perception

1. Rational Actor Theory: The more knowledgeable a person is regarding a technology or practice, the more accurate their risk perceptions will be.

Two Theories of Risk Perception

1. Rational Actor Theory: The more knowledgeable a person is regarding a technology or practice, the more accurate their risk perceptions will be.

2. Cultural Theory of Risk Perception: People perceive risks in relation to cultural commitments.

Two Values(there are many more, but these are a nice start)

Egalitarianism <-> Hierarchy

Individualism <-> Communitarianism

Hierarchist

Egalitarian

CommunitarianIndividualist

Culturally Identifiable Experts

Source: Kahan, Braman, Cohen, Slovic, & Gastil, Who Fears the HPV Vaccine, Who Doesn’t, and Why? An

Experimental Study of the Mechanisms of Cultural Cognition, Law & Human Behavior (2010), advance on-line

publication doi: 10.1007/s10979-009-9201-0

“How much risk do you believe each of the following poses to the safety or health of people in our society?”

1.90

2.15

2.40

2.65

2.90

Priv

ate

Gun

Owne

rship

Mad

Cow

Disea

se

Nuc

lear

Pow

er

Gen

etically M

odified

Foo

ds

Inte

rnet

Por

nogr

aphy

Distri

butio

n

Gay

Mar

riage

Familiar with NanotechUnfamiliar with Nanotech

Ris

k Pe

rcep

tio

n

63%

77%

61%

85%

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

No Information Information-Exposed

Experimental Condition

Be

ne

ifts

> R

isks

Unfamiliar with Nano

Familiar with Nano86%

61%

23%

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

No Information Information-Exposed

Experimental Condition

Be

ne

ifts

> R

isks

Hierarchical Individualist

Egalitarian Communitarian

*

*

* Change across conditions significant at p < .05

Source: Kahan , Braman, Slovic, Gastil & Cohen Cultural Cognition ofNanotechnology Risks and Benefits, Nature Nanotechnology, 4(2), 87-91 (2009)

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

0.9%

2.2%

3.6%

5.8%

19.5%

-1.4%-0.9%-0.9%-0.5%

-2.6%

0%

-5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

5%

Incre

ase

in P

red

icte

d L

ike

liho

od

of S

elf-

Re

po

rte

d F

am

ilia

rity

with

Na

no

tech

no

log

y

Hierarch

Egalitarian

20th 40th 60th 80th 99th

Communitarian IndividualisticPercentile

Figure S1

1st

Source: Kahan , Braman, Slovic, Gastil & Cohen Cultural Cognition of

Nanotechnology Risks and Benefits, Nature Nanotechnology, 4(2), 87-91 (2009)

Prior

Risk

Perception

Revised

Risk

Perception

Cultural

Predisposition

Two Mechanisms of Cultural Cognition

New

Information

Culturally biased information search

Other

Souces

Culturally biased assimilationPersistent cultural polarization

-1.8

-1.6

-1.4

-1.2

-1.0

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

No Diff.

Nuclear Power-0.75 (.06)

Global Warming-1.35 (.06)

“Mad Cow”

-0.41 (.05)

Synbio+0.17 (.06)

+

Hierarch-Individ.Less Concerned.

Hierarch-Individ.

More Concerned.

Leiserowitz

"Naysayer"

-16.9% (4%)

Risk Believer

-15.7% (1.9%)

Conservative

-4.8% (1.5%)

Regular Churchgoer

-6.6% (2.2%)

Nonreligious

6.6% (2.9%)

Liberal

7.0% (2.1%)

Hierach. Individualist

-13.4% (2.8%)

Egalitarian Individualist,

+7.5% (3.7%)

Female

-4.1% (1.5%)

Risk Skeptic

+15.5% (1.8%)

SampleMean

10%

20%

30%

- 10%

- 20%

- 30%

Ch

ange

in L

ikel

iho

od

of

Agr

eein

g B

enef

its

> R

isks

+

+

+

++

1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

Knowledge and Risk Perception

Knowledge about Synthetic biology

Th

e r

isks o

f synth

etic b

iolo

gy a

re lik

ely

to

be

ve

ry la

rge

.

other risks high

other risks low

nothing at all Just a little a moderate amount a lot

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

Governance

Practical Upshot #1

• If your goal is consensus, public education and increased scientific literacy are unlikely to produce it.

• The more educated and informed people are, the more they disagree.

• Facts have a place, but they must come after(temporally, not normatively) cultural attentiveness.

Practical Upshot #2

Everyone cares about risk, but risk perception is often a function of perceptions about whether one’s values are being honored or disparaged.

(1)Attend to values first. Convey – and intend! –respect for non-risk related concerns.

(2)Once people feel respected, they are more likely to be receptive to science or (as some prefer) leave everything to experts.

Practical Upshot #3

People care about what a regulatory scheme says about them as much as they care about what it does.

– Bring members of diverse groups into the discussion so that the public sees that people like them – people from their tribe – are part of the process.

– Who is involved is just as important as what the end result is.