1 May 2008 Page 1

Model collaboration, coordination and…the Model Web

for ecological forecasting

1 May 2008 Page 2

From Yesterday

Need to assess impacts of change…

“A new generation of integrated modeling is needed” (Tony Janetos)

“Major investment in impact models is needed”

“Need integrated research” (Ex: biofuels/food/crop)

Need “Model comparisons…multi-model analyses…coordinated agenda”

“Need to develop an infrastructure”

“Need to investigate alternative futures”

“Need a new NASA program”

1 May 2008 Page 3

Overview

Bring people together

Review Model Web concept

Discuss strawperson approach to doing it

Focus on: Initial Framework Infrastructure

• Right models?

• Right people?

1 May 2008 Page 4

Current Modeling Environment

Very limited model-model communication

• Technical and especially non-technical barriers

Response

• Try a “web of models” analogous to the WWW

• Can’t just plan and build it

• Facilitate and encourage

1 May 2008 Page 5

Demonstration System

Global ClimateDataset

RegionalClimate Dataset

Species Distribution

Model

Species distribution

TOPS

1 May 2008 Page 6

System Growth

Global ClimateDataset

RegionalClimate Dataset

FireModelTOPS

Species distribution

Species Distribution

Model

1 May 2008 Page 7

System Growth

Global ClimateDataset

RegionalClimate Dataset

FireModel

LandscapeModelTOPS

Species distribution

Fire risk,Intensity, etc

PossibleLandscapes

Species Distribution

Model

1 May 2008 Page 8

Distributed network of interoperating models (and datasets and sensors)

Using web services

Models are harmonized

Multi-disciplinary scope

Model Web: 5-10+ Year Vision (1/2)

1 May 2008 Page 9

Model Web: 5-10+ Year Vision (2/2)

Grows organically within framework of broad goals and data exchange standards

Models and datasets maintained, operated, and served independently

Web access provided to researchers, managers, policy makers, public

1 May 2008 Page 10

Model and Data Space

Model A

Model B

Model CDataset 1

Dataset 2

Model D

Model E

Model F

Dataset 3

Dataset 4

Model G

1 May 2008 Page 11

Model Web "Traditional"

Harmonization of components a lot of work Harmonization of components a lot of work

Communication by web services Communication by API/system calls

Dynamic, interoperable system of systems Static, isolated, integrated systems

Loosely coupled components Tightly coupled components

Distributed system lacking centralized control Centralized system controlled by developers

Open system. New components added without permission Closed system. New components only added by system developers

Organic and opportunistic growth, similar to WWW (but guided) All growth planned

High level of component reuse—once harmonized with other components a component is available to everyone

Low level of reuse; once harmonized with other components remains within the tightly coupled system

Generally high level of data sharing Generally lower level of sharing; focus is on specific questions and tightly coupled components so that only final products are shared

Indeterminate growth Determinate growth as defined by developers

Long term evolutionary process that gradually converges on higher levels of interoperability

Shorter term development process with complete interoperability at delivery

Leads to a shared modeling infrastructure accessible by all Leads to isolated model systems available to a few

Untrained users may misuse model or outputs Misuse rarer because users and developers are typically the same

Unsuitable for systems that require high levels of data exchange between components

High levels of data exchange less of a problem due to co-location of components

1 May 2008 Page 12

Next Step

Think about an initial “framework infrastructure”

Expand demo system

Include additional basic components

1 May 2008

Strawperson Initial Framework Infrastructure

Landscape•Ecotype•Tree density•Biomass•Disturbance•Succession•Composition

Species Distribution

Fire•Risk•Frequency• Intensity•Behavior•Emissions

Environment(eg, TOPS)

Carbon•Accounting•Allocation•Flows•Sequestration

EcosystemServices

Species Abundance

All kindsof data

Invasive Species

Community-levelBiodiversity

(Ferrier)

Role TBD

Public HealthSocio-economic

1 May 2008 Page 14

Selection Criteria

Model developer is engaged

Model developer is broad thinker and shares vision of a model infrastructure

Models have potential for harmonization

1 May 2008 Page 15

Model or Category Modeler Model information

NASA TOPS Rama Nemani (NASA) Environmental information past, present, future, including temperature, rainfall, radiation, LAI, soil moisture, stream outflow, ET, vegetation stress, primary productivity

GEOSS GBIF IP3 demo system

Stefano Nativi (Italian National Research Council)

Uses OpenModeler and GBIF to produce range maps based on the provided climate

Community models Simon Ferrier (CSIRO, Australia)

TBD

Carbon Yiqi Luo (Univ of Kansas) TBD

Fire TBD Many options; Nativi has a Mediterranean model, TOPS will likely add an emissions model; USFS has many models; risk, intensity, frequency, coverage, emissions are of interest

Landscape eg, LANDIS--Rob Scheller (Conservation Biology Institute)

LANDIS has a fire module as well as other components that are loosely coupled and available as DLLs. Should also check into the Ecosystem Demography model (Paul Moorcroft, George Hurtt)

Socioeconomic Robert Costanza's group (Gund Inst for Env Economics)

Ecosystem services, predicted landcover change; roads; etc

Public health EPA--Gary Foley’s group TBD

Ecosystem services EPA—Rick Linthurst’s group, with John Johnston

TBD

Invasive species Jeff Morisette and John Schnase (NASA)

NASA Invasive Species Forecasting System; predicts likely spread of invasives

1 May 2008 Page 16

Related Topic

Chris Field and Modeling Breakout group

• Coordination in assessing impact of change

• Would enhance application of model results

• Form a working group?

1 May 2008 Page 17

Next Steps

Expand demo system to Initial framework system

Finalize models and participants

Submit proposals?

Plan Model Web Workshop

Impact modeling WG for coordination?

1 May 2008 Page 18

Principle of Gradual Convergence

Vision cannot be achieved quickly

• Gradually converged upon

Cannot be achieved completely

• Not necessary

Follow path of organic growth

• Organized around general framework

• Facilitated by tools and technologies

• Lubricated by interested sponsors

1 May 2008 Page 19

Barriers to Interoperability

Data format

Data terminology

Missing data

Temporal/spatial gridding

Standards

Sponsor goals

Model purpose

Effort required

Proprietariness

Acceptance

Cultural differences

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Technical

Non-technical

1 May 2008 Page 20

Larger infrastructure

GlobalClimate

Public Health

Human Population Density and Distribution

Socioeconomic•Poverty•Technology•Economy•Behavior

Regional Environmental Change

• Habitat Alteration• Deforestation/Disturbance• Agricultural Intensification• Urbanization• Fire• Carbon• Landscape• Ecosystem Services

Species & Habitat•Range•Abundance•Functions• Interactions

Local/RegionalClimate

Theseinteract

All kindsof data

Includes vectors & hosts