1 cost benefit analysis of infrastructure for cycling sven hunhammar swedish environmental...
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Cost Benefit Analysis of Infrastructure for Cycling
Sven HunhammarSwedish Environmental Protection Agency
Velo-city 2005 in Dublin
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Conclusions:- Significant benefits
- Health effects, if new bikers are attracted
- Comfort improvements of old bikers
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Why?
Infrastructure for cycling should be treated seriously, in the same way as other infrastructure
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0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Hokksund Hamar Trondheim
Other Benefits
Health
Health - large share of benefit
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Cycle measureCycle
trips on the path
in % of existing cycle trips on the
construction
Cycling totally in the
corridor
in % of existing cycling kilometres in
the corridor
Car use totally in the
corridor
in % of existing car kilometres in the
corridor
Comprehensive programme
10 - 35% 10 - 35% - 5 - 20%
Single separated high standard cycle corridor
10 - 300% 1 - 5% - 0 - 2%
Single cycle path 5% 0 - 2% - 0 - 1%
Improved maintenance during the winter
5% 5% - 1- 5%
Safe bicycle park 75% 30% - 20 - 30%
Information 100% 1 - 5% - 0 - 1%
Road signing / road markings 100% 0 - 2% - 0 - 2%
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Comfort
• … and security
• Large willingness-to-pay
• Up to 2 € / trip!
• Based on SP and RP studies
• Very uncertain…
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(sum of effects) * 0.5
• The increased travel of previous and new bikers
• Estimated consumer surplus
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Improved health
• Large for older and activated cyclists
• Nil for younger and already active
• 300 € /yr average cyclist
• 800 € /yr and cyclist in targeted campaign
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Obesity, inactivity
Angina pectoris Heart attack
Hypertensionstroke
Diabetes
Loss of production
Medical treat-ment costs
Welfare loss from premature death
Deceases linked to overweight, obesity and inactivity
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Reduction of accidents at intersectionsMeasure Influenced
accident typeBest estimate
Uncertainty of estimate
Bridge, tunnel Pedestrians – crossing
-82 (-90; -69)
no data about cyclists
Motor vehicles -9 (-29; +15)
All accidents -30 (-44; -13)
Prominent stop line for cyclists in signalised intersections
Cycle accidents -27 (-61; +36)
Motor vehicles -66 (-88; -5)
All accidents -40 (-65; +1)
Cycle crossing in signalised intersection
Cycle accidents -12 (-27;+21)
Motor vehicles +39 (+5;+84)
All accidents +14 (-8;+41)
Elevated crossings
All accidentsproperty damage
+5+13
(-34; +68)(-55; +183)
Speed humps All accidents – in the street- in surrounding streets
-48-6
(-54; -42)(-9; -2)
Source: Elvik et al (1997)
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External effects
• According to standard road CBA
• CO2, NOx, PM10, Noise…
• 5 cents / vehicle km
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Mode before % after % before # /day
after# /day
car 72 71,5 5690 5650
bike 19 19,5 1500 1555
bus 9 9 700 695
total 100 100 7890 7900
Komplettering av cykelbana Ryd-Malmslätt 2 km
Förbättrad cykelpåfart Majgatan
Komplettering av cykelbana
Drottninggatan 0,5 km
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External
Health
New cyclists
More cycling
Safety
Delay
Comfort
Investments
Example - Linköping
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1
2
3
4
5
Costs Benefits with Comfort Benefits withoutComfort
Mk
r
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External
Health
New cyclists
More cycling
Safety
Delay
Comfort
Investments
Example - Linköping
0
1
2
3
4
5
Costs Benefits with Comfort Benefits withoutComfort
Mk
r
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Conclusions
Main effects of cycling: great similarities in valuation methods, factors taken into account and different impacts.
Health benefits - can be great if inactive elderly persons are addressed
Comfort and security - play big roles in attracting people to cycling
Uncertain assumptions: Accidents, Demand and Unit costs in CBA of cycling
CBA calculation is powerful - needed to convince decision makers?
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Recommendations:
Disseminate the results - guidance available: municipalities should use it.
Exchange experience - test the approach
Co-operate in research
Improve data - demand and comfort values
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New Reports:
Den samhällsekonomiska nyttan med cykeltrafikåtgärder, NV 5456, Naturvårdsverket.
CBA of Cycling, Nordiska Ministerrådet, draft
Contact: