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WHITHER HIE ATMOSI)HERE ANI) EARTHS CLIMATES 43

REFERENCES

BACH W (1976) Global air pollulion and climatic change Review ofGeophysics IIlld Splice Phucs 14 pp 42 -74

BtuMGAR INER A amp REICHEL E (1975) The World Water Baillice R Oldenshybourg Munich 179 pp

BERG IHORSSON p (1969) JiiJull 19 pp 94-101 BERKOFSK Y L ( 1976) The effect of variable surface albedo on the atmospheric

circulation in desert regions JOlirl App Meeor 15 pp 1139-44 BotlN H (1975) Ellerg (1( Clilllate Secretariat for Future Studies Stockholm

55 pp BROECKER W (1975) Climatic change Are we on the brink ofa pronounced global

warming) Science 189 pp 460-3 BRYSON R A (1974) A perspective on climatic change Science 184 pp 753 -60 BRYSON R A (1975) The lessons of climatic history l)lIirollmentlil Conservashy

tioll 2(3) pp 163 70 R figs BUDYIW M J (1974) mtllellija Killafll Gidrometeoizdat Leningrad 260 pp CHARNEY J (1975) Dynamics of deserts and drought in the Sahel Quart Journ

Ro it1leor Soc 101 pp 193-202 FLoH H (1973a) Der Wasserhandhalt der Erde Schwankungen und Eingriffe

liallrWisI(IIScJwflII 60 pp 340-8 FIOHN H (I973h) Globale Energiebilanz und Klimaschwankungen BOllller

IelCOI A hillIlul bull 19 43 ppmiddotl FLOHN H (977) Climate and energy A scenario to a 21st century problem il Clilllatic Chllll)( I pp R - 8 Y HARE F K (1976) Clillllle 11pound1 Desertification Component Review for the I United Nations ConferelHe on Desertification Institute for Environmental Studies Toronto Canada 189 ppbull illustr (mimeogr)

HARE F K ( 1977) Connections between climate and desertification poundJlvirvnshyI IIt1lal COIlHrlaioll 4(2) pp 81-90 5 figs I KElLOGG W W (1976) Effects of Human Activities on Global Climate WMO

Blillelin 26 pp 229-40 and 27 pp 3-10 KREUELS R FRAEDRtCH K amp RUPRECHT E (1975) An aelological climatology

of South America Metlor RUIdsch 28 pp 17 24

LANI)SIJER(i H (1970) SciIIIte 170 pp 1265 74 1 LVOVKII M J (1909) Waer Relourcc1 liJl the Fllture [in Russianl Gidshy1 romeleoizdat Moscow I MANASE S amp WETHERALO R T (1967) Thermal equilibrium of the atmosphere e with a given distribution of relative humidity Joum Amos Sci 24 pp

241-59 IY MANABE S amp WETHERALD R T (1975) The effects ofdoubling the C02 concentshyh ration on the climate of a general circulation model Journ Atmos Sci 32 pp

3-15 MITCHELL J MLRRAY Jr (976) Quaefllary Research 6 pp 481-93

id Ie

MITCHELL J MURRA Y Jr (1977) EIIvironmental [)aa Service Ma)azine March 1971

~ t NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES (1975) Understandin) Climatic Chane

e National Academy of Sciences Washington DC xv + 239 pp 52 figs ~r OTTERMAf J (1974) Baring high-albedo soils by overgrazing A hypothesized t desertification mechanism Science 186 pp 531- 3

1ltt RASCHKE E el al (1973) The annual radiation balance of the earth -atmosphere ~ system during 1969-70 from Nimbus-3 measurements Journ Almos Sci 30

pp341-64

bull

i

I

44 (ROWTU Wit HOUT ECODlSAS ERS

s~WHR J S (15) NOles on Ihe possible physical causes of long-IeIm weal her anomalies U10 TeellliclIl Note 66 pp 227 - 48

SUIfI()IR S (1976) 7ft (ielln Strutel Plenum Press New York and Lonmiddot don xxi + 419 pp IX figs

SM Ie 1fOR I (1971) ll1wmiddotUttllt Ciilwt flldUCllti(JII Report (~r th Studr (~r filII 1111(t 011 Clillate (SM1() MIT Press Camhridge Massachusetls 108 PImiddot

SYNN(HI T J (1977) 101l1tolllIl hopiCIII Forests it Redell lIith Special R(Jershy(ICI to AMca Moniloring and Assessment Centre of SCOPE Report No5

WANG W C et ( (1976) Greenhouse effects due 10 man-made perturbation of trace glses Science 194 pp 685-90

WMO TECHNICAL CO1MITTEE PANEL OF EXPERTS (1977) Technical Report WMO Bulle till 26 pp 5()- 5

WMO-ICSU JOINT ORGANIZING COMMITTEE (1975) The Physical Basis oleimiddot mal( and Clllllatl Moeelill GARP Publication Series No 16 Geneva xxiii + 265 pp 96 figs

1tiZ4poundJ$pound2U C tt MUM Jacna

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II Ollic I VCdlUlofal Hh Incml frHll thl U niCfil ~ 1 Ihell 11Ililllle fIll Em imnm Oil Hl Ihe hllloland the I hIIII J 1 U11lt1 bull publi h 11IIIdi 11010 ltIf OUl 10Ph

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DISCUSSION (Session 2)

Lon- Iulollc (Chairman introdtlling) We an~ particularly happy to welcome las our principal speaker in this Session)

Idmiddot of one of the most uislingubhed contrihutors 10 climalology in the world Professor 308 Hermann Flllhn unl il very recently Director of the Meteorological Institute of the

Univcrsity of Bonn (ermany who will address LIS on Mans Increasing Impact on Ifershy Climate As panellis we have first the 10lltstandingl Canadian Environmentalist ~o 5 and Climatologist Professor F Kenneth Hare now of the University of Toronto ion of As our secllnd panelIiitldiscllssant we have-very nalurally from our hlht country

in view of its Iprominence in weather reportsJ-the man who in a sense is eport responsihle for them from here namely the DireclOrofthe Icelandic Meteorologishy

cal Otlice (Vedurstofal Hlynur Siglryggsson As our Ihird panellist we have an old if CIishy friend from the University of Wisconsin Profesor Reid A Bryson the Director of xiii + their Institute for Environmental Studies and I take the liherty of remarking that

soon on the hool-sta11lb there will he a hook Cillllles (~r lIu IIg( hy Hryson amp Thol11as J Murray puhli hed hy the University of Wisconsin Press thaI is very mllch apropolt of our topic t his morning

I have two announcements to make on hehalf of our Secretary-General who apologile~ for heing ciIlctl m~ay tll1 urgent husiness For those of you who did not get the filII text of Profesor Flohns raper-there was some prohlem in collating due haically to the genetal strih-pientiful copies are now availahlc and our CnnferenCl Selretary Mis Angela (iihh will pass alol1g and if you want one plea hold lip 0111 hand lIld hl will cOllle down thl aisle 1I1l1 give you a full text (If the complete lInd1lidged 1lohn The secolHI 1I11l0UllCelllent is thaL a in ollr opening eiol1 rather than sending notes of questions or expected time of interventions up to Ihe Chairman if you will rlease raise your hand and then wait for Mr Iolunin Junior wilh the microphone to come over to you we can get your name and Illessage reconled and save you the prnhlem of writing it and it will then he pre erved for posterit~ IThis is now envisaged as the hest procedure for the rest of the Conference as sct hy our Ireident for the first session1

Hy way ofrrcfatory rcmarks Imight ay t hat Professor Plohn himself in his hrief intervention earlier this morning advanced the Cl1Hi1 consideration that not only stress hetween Man and environment hut also the perception of stres hetween Man and his enVilOllfl1enl has taken plale precisely during a period of ahnormally henign climate 0 that we can cxpect Ihe siregt to he aggravated rather than attenuated

The timeliness of thi Session topic of Whither the Atmo~phere and Earths Climates resul frolll a series of cinullltances of which the following stand out particularl y ( I) We now havl for the fir time in thl history of metlorology a global ohservational technological capahility () We have the computational technology to handle the~e data (3) Our understanding of the physical processes in the atmosphere has grown explosively during the past four decades Moreover new conceptual formulations are heginning to aprear which make it possihle to employ the methods of statistical sampling and estimating theory in deducing the relevant properties of a non-linear dynamical system so that t he levels of climatic noise can he identified and internal hehaviour distinguished from external forcing funcshytions j

In addition to the above three chosen circllmstances we now have (4) proxy data )

obtained from ice-coring and ocean-bottom coring as well as fossil pollen counts I which have permitted us to reconstruct past climatic variability while (5) impresshy

j

I sive strides have been made in setting forth the hypotheses which relate climatic variability to orbital characteristics of the Earth and Sun and (6) the elements of a

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GROWTH WITHOUT ECODISASTERS46

scientific strategy for a global research assault on this problem have begun to emerge from the series of national and international conferences that have been held during the past few years Finally (7) it is becoming increasingly clear that human activity is reaching a dimension which poses the potential for human interference in an inadvertent manner on climate ranging from local areas to the entire globe But that is really what Professor Flohn is telling us about

Flohn (Keynoter remarks in presenting paper) It is a great honour for me to speak here of my paper in an anridged way and to

introduce it by saying that in recent years we have come to understand a lot of things which we did not understand when I started my own meteorological education more than 40 years ago The first of these is illustrated in my Fig I namely that the climate depends on what we are now calling a climatic system which consists of many subsystems that are per se quite different each extending over a very large area and being very difficult to handle This is because within them non-linear actions and feedback mechanisms having a positive or negative direction are going on persistently Perhaps the most important and the most difficult thing to counteshynance is that these suosystems have memories which are apt to be quite different in their time-scales rangin) from a few days within the atmosphere to several hundred thousand years with the great continental icc-sheets-particularly of the Antarctic amI of Greenlallll This means that we- have to deal with all these systems together and this aim inJee-d has not been reached yet We have now a rather good perception of the physical processes that are going on out to take them together with the variety of time-scales and space-scales involved goes far oeyond the limit of the present computers and our anility to handle such a system quantitashytively

The seconJ point is that the causes of climatic variability which we huve seen as Dr Malone pointed out in the history of the last ltIt least 100000 years though he did not mention a figurel we now know with very much more precision than some time ago thou)h the causes are very various Thus we have natural causes which are practically not predictable at least at the present time and if you look ltIt my Fig 2 (Tanlc I in thi book Iynll will iCC some orthem-inclmlin) the solar constant though we still do lint k nnw if it really is a constant We may also (kal with oroital changes ollr as they arl Oil a very long rime-scale Ill some tcn thousand years and upwards these are- uninteresting for liS We abo have to deal with individual events of volshycanic activity which can cluster to such an el(tent that the Iooal heat-oalance of the Earth md its atmosphere is greatly disturoed Indeed most of us believe that this is the main origin of the dimttic varianility in the past at least on short time-scales of the orde-r of a few tens or mayhe some hundreds of years

Then we have a lot of internal changes within the climatic system though here I should add an item which is so familiar to most of us thut I have not induded it in my figure namely the air- sea interaction which is in fact the most prominent ofall these internal feedback mechanisms But I did include the [so-called] antarctic surges-a little-known new item for research which only a few specialists are aware of Although apparently the time-scale in which these events occur is a very long one we have insufficient insight into their mechanisms to say anything more thltln thaI

The questions of the constancy of the solar constltlnt of the volcanic events and of these antarctic surges-inueed of all of these natural causes of climatic changes-are now and will remain for sometime unpredictable Wecanonly follow what has happened in the past andas Professor Bryson has frequently said what has happened inthe past may happen in the future So the past is the key tothe future and we must understand it-thb is one of the prominent tasks of research

s 2 3C a j i I SZili Z J sa au 2 j I I Ii au 2 ina gas I tlUS

WHITHER HIE ATI

In addition to the natural cau Iluctuations And as Dr Malone thee man-ma1c changes read lrlking int1 the energ~ contribl ellel gy level of the dimatic tluct the- order or lOll _ J()() Ie-rawat the- iliaI conslant out which imiddot le-nlial e-nergy and the- de-itru OIe- that are- driving llurweat 110 TW only Su we are here dl of the force-s within our we-athc change-s are imall compared wit rtlhe-f soon the level or 100-HlC nMn-made intluences is nl) of je-neral feding that this is the lo~ Ix ptrhaps much larger One ha~ ~ll into all the de-tails

Thc above-mentioned exceptl llntent of the atmosphere This up to nllW of t he order of I J ma~ oe to something like 25 or I 400 ppm instead of Ithe oltlic) lUite lime time the-Je-afterl

NllhoJy cm SltlY whether this eClllllllllic gruwth and the IPie 0

ble IndeeJ it is the general I increae of the caroon dioxide o-callell greenhouse clTec of Imatic change But I must sa llllrces even ifit is not worth w clllIrolled to some extent at an i KUlgdllm and Japan and my ow (hi repecl

Rltlthe-r hllllid we deal with here e-n aptly ny Profeor bull here namely the cHlVeriiol ~rlandi very widely into ara Illln which I peronally feel p emphie that the de-structior mlIl-I1Mde vegetation types (il jling on all the time under c metcllhllugiss viewpoint FOI Ihe urfacc albedo and thaI IT

Rgalding carolln dioxide lme ofthee is the fmesh We llf the fllremiddotas is Illlt large enOl hlllll1 lime that the fore-st Ictllllly a S~lurcc of more carb IOlerltlcthln ocl een the atmo I~er of the ocean and the dee-I nllwldays is that the exchang leep IkCan are much less acll rl1cttcally lJllly an echlIlg I

plla ttJ1WlaZIIOlt

WHIIHER TUE ATMOSPUIRF AND EARTHS CLIMATES 47

In additim to the natural catlilS we have now thl man-made causes of climatic fluctuatilms And as Dr Malone has poimed out we are just at the fringe of where these man-made changes reach the level that the natural changes have reached LOllking into the energy contribution ofthese natural changes it is quite clear that the energy level of the climatic nllllllatillns in the pas caused by natural forces are of the orderof IO()middot ~tJ() terawath (each of 1012 W) which is fairly small compared with the solar contant but which is relatively large compared with the production of potential energy and the destruction of kinetic energy namely with those energy sources that are driving our weather and ultimately ourclimate This is ofthe order of IOOOTWonly Sowe are here dealing with between about lOand 30 of the amount of the forces within Ollr weather and climate With one exception all man-made changes are small compared with that but they are increasing and they may reach rather soon the level of 100- 300 TW The most likely value of the sum of all these man-made innuences is now of the order of between 15 and 20 TW but there is a general feeling that this is the lower level ofestimate and that the correct tigure may he perhaps much lar)lr One has todeal here also with the time-contant but I cannot go into all thl details

The ahove-mentioned exception ii of course the increase in the carhon dioxide content of the atmosphere This increase is from the beginning of the industrial age up to now of the order of 13 ami we expect it will rise hy the end of the century maybe to som~lhing like 25 or even JO over the original value-reaching about 400 ppm instead of Ithe basicl 29() at the beginning of the industrial era [and for quite some time thereafterl

Nohody can say whether this value will be reached at the year 2000 or 2010 but if economic growth and the ue of fosltH fuels goes on increasing it wilt be unavoidshyable Indeed it is the general feeling of climatologists that this question of the increase of the carbon dioxide content of the atmosphere and the concomitant ~o-called greenhouse effect of warming the Earths surface is the key question of climatic change But I must say that in addition to this we have also some other ~ources even ifit is not worth while to deal here with tropospheric dust as it can be controlled to some extent at an industrial level Indeed countries such as the United Kingdom and Japan and my own country Germany are more or less successful in this respect

Rather should we deal with another prohlem which has already heen stressed hlrl very aptly by Pmfcsllr Kuenell as well as by our Secretary-General elseshywhere namely the conversion of natural vegetation into croplands including grasslands very widely into arable lands and the continuing devastating deforestashytion which [ personally feel poses one of the most vital of all threats I should emphasize that the destruction of the natural vegetation and its replacement by man-made vegetation types (including the processes of desertification) which is going on all the time under our very eyes is extremely serious also from the meteorologists viewpoint For all these processes lead generally to an increase in the ~lIIface albedo and that means to a change in the heat-budget of the Earth

Regarding carbon dioxide we have to deal with several storages or middotsinksmiddot ltlIld one of these is the forests We have latterly come to think that the torage capacity of the forests is nol large IIHlllgh in view of their rate of destruction and that we hould assume that the forcsts are no longer a sink of fossil carbon dioxide but actually a source of more carhon dioxide What we do not know sufficiently is the interaction between the atmosphere the ocean and especially the upper mixed layer of the ocean and the deep ocean However the general idea of all specialists nowadays is that the exchange processes between the mixed upper layer and the deep ocean are much less active than we had assumed before which means that practically only an exchange between the atmosphere and the mixed layer of the

1ft- shy

GROWTH WITHOUT ECODISASTERSI48

ocean is occurring Thus the storage capacity of the oceans which store now snmething lil-e 50 of all carnon dioxide will ne limited and will ne further limited by any ongoing aeiditiclltion and warming of the ocean so we have to expect t hat in due course even the ocean may he a source of carbon dioxide necause of the slow exchange with the vast depths of the ocean

Projections of the futme concentration ofcarnon dioxide in the atmosphere show that ~e arc mlW slightly anove J()~) ppm and should countenance the possihility of something like a douhling lof this levell If we start from the assumption that the use of fossil energy will ne reduced immediately then we expect reduction of the carnon dioxide input into the air But this is quite unrealistic as it assumes that control of economic activity and energy use can ne effected on an international level with an optimum strategy All olhercases indicate that perhaps in the second halfof the next century we have to expect an increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide not only ny a factor of 2 nllt ny a factor of 5 or perhaps even 8 which would have a very horrihle clTee from the viewpoint or climatic evolutinn

We hav 101gt nf models descrihing the relationship hetween carnlln dioxide increase and temperatures The hest is pronahly that of Manahe amp Wetherald puhlished in 1975 and taking into account the dynamics of the atmosphere and also parts of the interaction with the oceltln It indicates that with a douhling of the carbon dioxilc nlltellt of the stratospillre we Wtlllid have some cooling which would bl rllativelv modest ill thl Illwer lalitudls But in the polar and suh-polar regions there c)ulj he an increase of up to HI Celsius This woulll mean a complete change ofthe present situation and also of the climate which we have experienced in the last 100000 years-with the assumption of a mere doubling of the carbon dioxide content

What aggravates the situation is that quite recently we have found that there are several other trace-gases hesides carhon dioxide which ahsorb in the infra-red and thus increase the grecnhOlIe eTect of the carnon dioxide Among those are nitnms oxide as a product or denitrilication and of the use of fertilizers Then there arc the fluorocarhons or freons which are so frequently discussed nowadays their present concentration is rather small hut their lifeti~le i~ very lon~ heing of the order of ~O - 60 years So we have to expect a dramlIlc elfect 111 additIOn to that 01 the carhon dioxillc indeed all these effects together may douhle the effect ofcUlnon dioxide in the next few decades Yet the most essential question in that respect from the climatological point of vilw is what woulll happen to the Arctic and Subarctic allli so I am very glad to have this Conference right here where many data arc availahle since the early settlements of the Vikings in Iceland indicating the dramiltic changes of climate in this particular region or the world

We can only make useful projections on the hasis of assumptions that the unpredictahle natural causes remain more or less constant This would mean that there would be no change of the solar constant no major clustering of volcanic activity no antarctic surge and-what is quite essential from the climatological point of view-no major change in the cloudiness of the Earth Under those circumstances we can produce scenarios and conclude that a marked change of the polar climate with a marked retreat of the arctic icc to such a level as it reached either a thousand years ago or mayhe about 2 million years ago before the heglllshyning of the Quaternary ice-age with a completely icc-free Arctic bull woul~ quite dramatically change the position of the climatic zones of the Earth-lIlcl~dlIlg the rainfall helts the supply offresh water and of course the temperature ThiS IS what we arc visualizing and indeed it is not impossible if we are unable to control further economic growth and the use offossil fuels for energy that we shall have to expect a true climatic catastrophe in the form ofa sudden transition to a completely different kind of climate

WlIIllIFR IIII 1

We I-flllW-lIId I say thi il C Impll Iming the last ~tl()O III Ihe lill1e-~alc of from one 1 Ihlt sllch it mlden change CH pCII- for many of the dimlto C Iulton could be avoided () 4lllld alo mean curning the

1~lollt (Chilirman) Ihank VOll Professor Flohl

4 hat an ecodisaster might he t 4llull tress that Professor FII

fbr~ (Panellis) It is alwas an illtructive I

JClrc III chllenge this apoeal 1e11 SCiln- lives thee davs al (tlllfcrence should hI tlking lIlneranle in the world climal I(~llln where natural climatic lulltn rrlHl1 which we have ulneIrility (lfthe human eeo 4 e shlHlllimeet here quite ltII untn

I uld like to confine my 4 cl~ne of meteorology an lIlSIler whether this alo app tgt the eents-nv the proce tinHhpheric chen~htry to an a thlt Pillfe~or Flohn is talkin 1( Pilslnt in the atmllphe lIlltlH Sone the less those tl ~I the atnhphere in a therm ur eIUCltllln It still i not in 1I11I1In1 cho)ls One major r tJIl delinemtcly dismantled Irrllellll regarding it as im

SCllndl the orthldoy of t-e1lIlg haesselltially neen co hbullbull( tal-ln the viewpllint oft Hllhlls remarl-s indicate ab em that cafe cllnfronted wi hlllltlllllns nut also hecause ((IIlIn Hogance Physics is I rllblems to the simplest posmiddot 4C He tllclIing in this nwm tWflS thi mornings scssi

Sl I think we have neen we ht( Il achieve-immediate )1( our pronlems in the nex 1 angl them (It all One 0

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WHITHER THE ATMOSPHERE AND EARTHS ClIMATES 49

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We know-and I say this in all seriousness-of at least six and probably eight examples during the last 200000 years of very SUdden changes of climate occurring in the time-scale of from one generation to one century So it is by no means new that such a sudden change could occur Hence my impression-and I know that I speak for many of the climatologists who are studying the problem-that such an evolution could be avoided only if the energy prohlem can be controlled which would also mean curhing the hasic idea of unlimited growth

Malone (Chairman) Thank you Professor Flohn In case there is any doubt I think the question of

what an ecodisaster might he has been answered [with a superb example) though I would stress that Professor Flohn was careful to point out that it need not happen

Hare (Panellist) It is always an instructive pleasure to listen to Professor Flohn and [ have no

desire to challenge this apocalyptic vision that he has put hefore you We do indeed lead scary lives these days and I think that it is particularly appropriate that this Conference should be taking place in the country which is probably the most vulnemble in the world climatologically speaking [celand is in the very core of the region where natural climatic change has maximum amplitude and it has heen the country from which we have learned most about the past thousand years and the vulnerability of the human economy to climatic events So it is entirely suitable that we should meet here quite apart from the fact that it happens to he my favourite country

I would like to confine my own remarks to calling attention to the professional weakness of meteorology and l hope that economists and ecologists present will consider whether this also applied to their own disciplines We were caught napping by the events-by the processes that Professor Flohn referred to We neglected atmospheric chemistry to an astonishing extent yet most of the significant changes that Professor Flohn is talking ahout are the work of trace constituents in some cases present in the atmosphere to concentrations of less than I part per thousand million None the less those trace constituents turn out to be keys to the behaviour of the atmosphere in a thermal sense We neglected this completely it was not in our education It still is not in the professional curriculum of most meteorological training schools One major research organiZation of international scope not long ago deliberately dismantled much of its programme in atmospheric chemistry apparently regarding it as irrelevant to the situation

Secondly the orthodoxy of the professions to which all of us sitting here in front belong has essentially heen confined to one particular discipline we meteorologists have taken the viewpoint of the physicist This has turned out to be as Professor Flohns remarks indicate absolutely inadequate to un understanding of the probshylem that we are confronted with Ithink we have done this not only because of our limitations hut also hecause physics as a discipline tends to create in the mind a cerluin arrogance Physics is thollght of (hy ph ysicists) a heing t he reduction of all problems to the simplest possible ct of generalizations Unfortunately the things we are discussing in this room are not susceptihle to the simplest kind ofgeneralizashytions as this mornings session demonstrated

So Ithink we have been wearing blinkers and one of the transformations that we have to achieve-immediately as I fully accept Professor Flohns statement-is to solve our problems in the next [00 years or else Iwe shall have Iitt[e if any chance of solving] them at all One of the things we have to achieve is a fundamental re-ordering of our own discipline I would feel a traitor to my colleagues for saying such a thing in this particular gathering if it were not for the fact that [ am going to

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he saying precisely the same thing in a lot more detail at 9 oclock next Monday morning before the Executive Committee of the World Meteorological Organizashytion Physics is not enough But then all of us-whether we are ecologists or economists lor some other category of -ists]-have found ourselves caught up in what it i fashionahle to call a paradigm or let us say just simply a way of thinking which has turned out to he fundamentally inadequate If this Conference achieves nothing else I hope it will produce some other confessions of inadequacy from representatives of some other disciplines

So with that pessimistic-or rather realistic-note allow me to give WHY to the next discussant

Siglryggsson (Panellis) My remarks will probahly he short and perhaps not entirely 10 the point hut I

must say that I am very much impressed hy this rather sudden hurst of knowledge which I have experienced during the accollnt just given and its impact As Director of a national meteorological gtiervice which must maintain a network of meteorological stationgt hy means of which minute climatological changes have to be detected I am somewhat concerned Ihout the problems of observations which heset the theories we are discussing In fact we are aware of errors and variations in the observations that may he of the same order of magnitude as the changes which we are obierving And these errors may be not at all at random They probahly atTect hoth temperature and especially precipitation observations and reports which in a windy country such Wi Iceland with frequent snow arc apt to be too low by some 30-- 50 or even more The inadequacy of these observations over oceans is also easily estahlished Efforts should of course he made to remedy these shortcomings The existing theories are inadequate to explain even recent climatic changes The change for the worse around An 1600 remains unexplained and so does the change for the heller in the 1920s I expect that we do have adequate theories for the etTect of CO~ and probahly for the effects of the carhohalides or fluorocarhons abo hut when we impoe these effects on something that we cannot predict it becomes etremely difficult to verify the predictions That has to he done on the basis of the theory which is also not a very satisfactory method

Speaking ahout dimatic changes in relation to Iceland we have during our hisllllY experienced either the arctk climate which has not heen very pleasant for us or the cool-temperate climate which has heen quite tolemhle-apart from some hardships

When I think about the future and compare it with the pre-selliement climate of Iceland which was very good indeed around 3000 to 4000 years ago I must say that I am less worried about the predictions of a warmer climate as just expressed hy Professor Flohn-even if the consequences would be serious in some parts of the world-than about the possihilities of a collier climate as expressed at times by Professor Bryson But this is of course rather egoistic We must alsllthink about the rest of the world hut I leave the expression of such thoughts to others

IClimatic variations are now a well-estahlished fact hut cannot be predicted as yet-neither with regard to time nor amplilude The national and world economies seem to adapt fairly rapidly to improving conditions with unpleasant consequences when conditions deteriorate In view of the existence and non-predictability of climatic variutions it would seem advisable to make the adjustments of the economy to improve conditions more slowly than is done at present and never to rely on optimum conditions continuing for any length of time

[The World Meteorological Organization has the responsibility of encouraging and coordinating the national programmes of atmospheric observations together with their exchange and processing on a regional and ultimately world-wide basis

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IIt tllluid be evident fro enllg~d in furtherance and Ihl (lf1ference As an ob HprlentIive lll Iceland III mlt-ht intllihe plllhiems wh II1to their possihle solution

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Ilh ifill cnmmenh on e~l1 llf eCllllllmics ami sllcial 1IlIlllllIt-is ts c1imatologi nwtlllllillgist~ arc fllreCIi1t lhlI we Ire nllt very gllld Ill 11- Ie11I ~ IllYe hecause e e hl e Illlt yet learne1 hI) t-oul hltlt will Illlt workshyIlhl will not work in 1011 1I1ble in which we are int~ Ind nllthin) else The futu hlteer can not he predic hII 1 1middot The future t-I llfthe pait histllry llrtt I lIpllle you might ltlY tha 11 Ih whllie wllflll and the id vI lIll1lh

hl had a dicui1 tlltl dllide alld ilS imp ~1I1l1 dearl~ alKiated iIi hlh in tUIIl i er~ tighl 111111) SlI here l 1Ilte tal 11111111) llfthe Farth an eCl rdlt~ll tl an eClllllllllic di bull Ihllll 111111 pUlling ulh i l11plller dll not thinl TI 1)1middot1 Itilln pnlVid~ a ca 1gtlt111 I he middotonline of llll 11lplllll and III ilhludl th 111( 1l1lpllter dlthe numh t--lue a Irllflllr Flllhl

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WHITHER THE ATMOSPHERE AND EARTHS CLIMATES 51

Thus it aomplishes a World Weather Wath [Many of the activities ofWMO relate uirectly to this anu other topics which we

are uiscuiiing while several of the resolutions passeu hy the W MO Congress in 1)75 have a hearing on these matters being concerneu with (I) W MO activities in the tielu of environmental pollution (~) participation of WMO in the UNESCO Man anu the Biosphere programme (3) the UN Environment Programme anu (4) Iimatic change More recently the WMO Executive Committee at its session in ~1ay- June 1)76 passeu resolutions on (5) WMO activities relateu to energy prohshylems anu (6) marine pollution

lit shoulu he evident from this selection of resolutions that WMO is actively engaged in furtherance and administration rclateu to several of t he main topics of this Conference As an ohserver of WMO at thi~ Conference anu the Permanent Klpresentative of lcliand to WMO I am grateful for this opportunity to gain further insight into the prohlems whih have been so ably uiscusseu at this Conference and into their possihle solution[

Hr~slln (Panlilist) This Illceting ~Iartld with some reference to the future of Ihe environment anu

with sOllle commenls on economics especially wilh reference to the important role of elonomics ami social ~tuuie~ Now here on the platform we have some Illetlorologistsclimatologish anu atmospheric ~cienti~ts anu you all know that Illlteorologists are forecasters And you 1111 know as my colleague here aumitteu that we arc not very good forecasters Hut there is one group that we as professionshyals rlally love heause we can hcat them at foreca~ting and that is the economists WI have not ylt learned how to fmeast at all well hut we have learned a great deal about whlt will not wOI-whlt will IO give a good foreas One thing that we now will not wm in fOleasting is to a~sull1e that the future histolY of some Iriahle in which we ale inlnesled depends only on the pa~t history of that variahle and nothing else The future of the economy measureu in uollars krllllur or whatlvlr can not he predicted on the hasis of the pa~t history of dollars kronur or whatlverllitll(middot The future history of the temperature cannot he preuictcu on the basis oflhe past history Ill the tcmperature alone There are other factors involved I SIiPpUSC lllimight sav thai is whal ecology is all ahout-thc interconnedeuness llfthl whok- world allli thl idca thai thc course of one variahle docs affect the course llf anot hll

WI havl hau a di~cu~~ion this morning on the futun huilumiddotup of atmospheric Jlbon dioxide anu its impact on climate The future course of carhon uioxide is 411itl Ilearly associateu with the futurc course of the consumption of fossil fuels whih in turn is very tightly linked to the gross worlu prouuct economically speaking Sll here we are talking ahout an ecouisaster-if you want to call a ~uuuen lIlnning of the Earth an ellliisastlr-hut it is related to a resoure risis which is rdatld to an eonolTli disaster whih i~ related to many other things Onc usually thins ahout putting suh interlinked sYitem~ on a computer hut unfortunately Cl1lllPllIClS lill not think They arc very fast hut very stupid I helieve that this cllnsidnatioll prllVides a call for all of u~ as Professor Hare suggesteu to reach blllllu the ontincs of our own disciplines to look at the message~ of other lfisiplincs allu to inlude those ill a neative intiiviuually thinking sen~e Then let the llillputers UU the number-smashing But let u~ put our neativity together ~oon reallse as Profe~sor Flohn ha~ empha~izeu the time is ~hort

In the few seconus I have left anu hanging the subject slightly I wish to uefend myself It has been saiu hy my colleague from Iceland that the carbon uioxiue innease suggests a warming but Bryson has said middotIt is going to get colder Please I have never said that What I have said is that If certai n things happen then the

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northern hemiphere will get colder if other things happen it wiII get warmer But let me add one other caution here Ecodisaiters do not have to he dramatic I have studied the past history of climate for JO years For a numher of yeap scholars in general did not rlgard climate as hcin variahle hecause they did not find thoe mall events in the pat which had wiped out whole civilizatilln When once we hall developed some techniquegt so that we could lind these small chanes in the past we could ice that it really did not take very much change glohally or hcmiiphcrically to shift the rainfall patterns of the Earth so that whole cultures would disappear Then it hecamc fairly ohvious that there have heen dramatic elrects of environmental change where the change itself was so hidden so insidshyil)Us that the people at the time were not aware of il There are some cases of course where past civilizations were aware of climatic changes The Hittites said Lets get out of here irs gelling too dry They were aWare ofil This kind of thing has happened

Now let me give youjust a slight example with specific l1umhers We have talked ahout mall changes sllch as half-a-degree not heing terrihly important hut ~onluded that a hig change would come ifcerlain things happened However a Joe change in the temperature this coming ummel in the north-central United States will alfect the gwss imome of the pring-wheat farmers (of whom there arc not a very large numhcr) hy ahoul a $ 130m dollars When you consider how Irelatively fewl ofthcm there arc this means a ~ignilicalltly different net income Looked at on a world-widc hasi where the margin hetwcen feeding the world or not is of the ordcr of a few per cent lillk lhalles like thi can hc ignificant changes They do IItlt tlCur llvernight hut they occlIr at jUst the wrong rate-Iow enough that the ne1 gennalioll of politician do lIot have to anwer for them but fast enough that cllltlln (ill not ually cope Let liS put our hrains together transcend the discipshyline ami face these prohlcnli in a creative way

8uchin~er I would like to give you a little example Ifrom a remote part of South Americajto

show how right ProflSSorS Flnhn and Bryson are ahollt the need for close study Iwiorl 1lion Those of Villi WillI know Ihe Alhle will he aware that where the plain melt till IlhlUllIail thl rrecipitation Illay diler over a shorl ditaIHe from ~()O 111111 10 4tl1lO mill PCI Ylar Now in the tlO Illlll region they were cultivating plants which Wlrc adapted to the dry dimate with irrigation Then to improve the economy of the regilln a hi reservoir was huilt which was supposed to provide energy and also plentiful water for irrigation This reservoir was unfortunately put into the 200 mm precipitation area and as you can well imagine there is now much more water availahle and also precipitation with lots of storms and those plants which were adapted to the dry climate are absolutely incapahle ofgrowing there so the entire economy has to he changed

Myers It seems to me that there we have a classic instance of a potentially significant

ecological non-event It is not so much a case of one side wins and the ot her loses In the long run or possihly the short rlln we shall all either win or lose But I would like to put this question to the panellists and especially to Professor Bryson who J hdicve has llcasillil from time to time to take ome of his findings and recommenshydations to Washington I would like tll know what happens when you get there Professor Bryson is the administrative system ahle to absorb to listen to what you are saying and the same with the governmental system What is the reaction of congressmen and senators who operate within a planning time-horizon ofjust a few years to the next election when what you are talking about is likely to happen either

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WHITHER THE ATMOSPHERE AND EARTHS CLIMATES) 53

H rather or much laler Do you tind that the institutional structure in Washington is in e some way deticient-to the extent that it cannot handle the situation and cannot

in address itself to problems of this nature and scale I

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t You have really put me on the spot But I am pathologically honest and so will Jr answer bluntly ~s My experience with presenting ideas about this topic 10 congressmen to politishyIe cians and to bureaucrats of the upper levels such as heads of divisions or secshyjshy retaries of deparll1lenh has been that it is easy There is no prohlem in getting them Ilf to ec what tlw illlation is and no pmhkm for them in considering I thoughtfulJ reaction Now I may he selectiie 011 who the politicians are I do not talk to all of ilg them Obviollsly I talk to those who are willing to listen and Hllk to me The

problem has heen with my colleltlgues not the politicians If you include cd everyhody s idea and therefore give only general opinions they say Well go awaylit and make up your mind If you say This is our best judgement and I can give you ( odds that it is correct then they are ready to act But you cannot get from the middot~s scientists unilied clear statement-except for the one that most scientists who i talk to politicians make Give us more money to do more of the same So I do not

y hlamc the politicians for not taking action when there is no clear-cut statement n presented or clear action for them tll take

hc Jo Miller he I would like to a~k Prokisor Flllhn if in the ~econd graph which he showed us 1lt11 just now the curve marked C de~crihes the condition without nuclear energy To ip- - my mind advocates of nuclear power uevelopment could make use of that refershy

ence What is the context for this curvel

Flohn (Keynoter) to I took this from a report which was given by the International In~titute for Jy Applied Systems Analysis Laxenhurg Austria and it refers 10 the agtsumption that he no nuclear energy shall he used at all there is another curve dealing only with the

1m present technology of nuclear reactors namely light-water reactors This is one of ng the crucial points of the energy uiscussion my own point is that in the long run the ihe continued use of fossil energy regardless of how long we can use it will reach at ide least as high a risk-Ieiel as nuclear energy rut eh Miller nts May I ask a second question What effect might be attributed to prospective so releases of nuclear energy on the global heat-budge

Flohn (Keynoter) I do not think that this is much different from what we have now Radioactivity bull

bulllOt generally speaking does not add to the heat-budget of the Earth There are some In estimates regarding the electricity-budget of the atmosphere with some hints that uld this may change and perhaps also influence the overall rainfall-budget But I do not 0 I consider this to be too serious because rainfall and evaporation are mainly conshyen~ trolled by the heat-budget It consumes something like 75 of the net energy ere available at the Earths surface-a figure that can hardly be changed by Mans vou activity

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54 GROWTH WITHOlJT ECODISASTERS

Iiller Is it fair to say Professor Flohn that the ultimate release of sensible heal to

slisiain nudear energy generation might very well cause a pronlem nut that this problem is several degrees removed from the immediacy of the C02 problem

Flohll (Key nllterl Here we tadle a rtI hI I difficult 4111tion ofthl allgt11 to whilh I am not certain

m~ 111 I thinl- that with all thse different mall-made efflcts we are not dealing merely with the energy contrihutions but also with wht we may call the reiden~e-til11e within the atmosphere For example the residenlc-lime of a carhon dilxide molecule in the atll1l)sphere is of the order of 6 years rn contrst to this the residence-time of enthalpy (or sensible heall in the atmosphere is of the order of a few days hecaue of the long-wave radiat ion to space when we heat the atmosphere The resideme-time of a water molecule in the atmosphere is of Ihe order of 10 days while that of a halocarnon molecule is of the order of 50 years If we tal-e this into account it will chlOge the ligures I have inJicated here the long-living eflicts heing more marked than the short-living ones This means that the input of ensible heal plays in realilY a role only at a local and not al a glohal scale

Sil-urhjlirmsoll PII)fe-or Flohn was referring to the greel1hlugte erfect of C02 which leads to the

warming lip olthe at fllophere However there is another greenhollie erfect ofeo whith i well krhlwn hI greenhouse operators if you innease the CO concentrashytion in a greenhlluie you gel inrcased photosynthesis-inneHsed gmwthshyplltel1tial-- and thereby increased proilrdion of oxygen Now I wonder if increasshying atll1pherit CO the way you descrihe willle d tll increased rates ofpholosynshythesis and increased production of crops and wild planh--whcther thi will in clTec neutralize the effect we are talking aboUI and the net result will be no inCJeaie in temperature

Flohn (Keynoter) Thi j inll 1 a very ential quetion that ha~ already heen con~iderell elseshy

whn with regarll to the lIIdy of hiogeothefllital cvcle In that contet w have indenl to J what j Ih grcitter dTcII the innease of growth-ratcgt of the living 1IIct produced by the increase nf carhon dioxide nr the rate of dcstructilln of forests hy Man This has recently heen tudied with the perhaps surprising result thaI probably the rate of Jestruction of tropical forests by Man goes on at a faster rate than thc possible increase of grOWl h of the remaining mainly horeal forests

Malone (Chairman) I might say that within the pasl few weeks Professors Roger Revelle and Walter

Munk from San Diego California have made some calculations which suggest that if you Irehle the hiomlss you would just he able to take care of the increase in the C02 content [anJ arrive at a steady state] They do not anticipate this happening but give it as the result of a simple calculation

Glasser If I heard correctly Professor Bryson said that the increase of the amount of CO]

was directly related to the burning of fossil fuels and therefore was also directly related to economic growth That would be rather puzzling because it seems to me that if you follow a different method of economic activity whereby you use what I describe as income energyas opposed to capital energy which is perfectly possible

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Rr)son (Panellist) There igt a key word in what you said we could have growth with an income

economy hut that does not mean that we have had or do have it My statement was hasell on the way things happen just at the present time which certainly does not preclude the change to an income economy But we are not there yet and we will not he there in t his decade

lalOnte Just a comment to slistain what has heen mentioned hy ollr two keynote speakers

this moniing ahout the grave prohlem of deforestation In the case of Java the last survey made hy the Duteh Government hefore leaving in 1947 showed that 27 of the island was covered with tropical forest This has heen puhlished hy Professor Otto Soemarwoto Director of the Institute of Ecology of Padjadjaran University in Bamiling lien we hah a dear caSl which shows the kind of action that may he needed hy developing cllllntric The Indone ian (iovernment is possibly not in a position to give the neeesary effort to make it posihlc for the people 10 lISC the fllresh in thl manner which they want Effort is probahly needed at an international level to SICllle national action towards remedying this kind of prohlem and one wonders if a hetter usc or the alellite photographs which show the same kind of thing happening in other countries could not he made with a suitahle public relation clTort to convince puhlic opinion anti the governments concerned that orne kind of action is urgently needed

1alont (Chairman) I might add that this very week there is going on in Tel Aviv a meeting of Working

GrollP tJ of COSPAR (Committee on Space Research of the International Council of Sicntific llnillns) and they Ire cOlllidering precisely the question that you raised

Kuenen JIIt a hlllt additional renwrk the destruction of the tropical rain-forests has two

callses one of which is the increased population and the attempt to increase aricultural area hut the other is much worse-the extraction on behalf of you and me up here in the north of timher from the tropical rainmiddotforests to make fall) sorts of heaUlifll1 things

Worthin~ton Relating to the influence of the greenhouse effect and increased C02 on photoshy

ynthetic activity at ground-level there is a factor which strikes anybody who

1 travcl hy air overCentral Africa or South America namely the amount of smoke in the atmosphere during the dry season and its absence during the wet season In Africa particularly alnHliI everything which is humahle is hurned annually over al areas and c1ostll-canopy forest which docs not hurn tends to hc replaced hy Olvanna or gras land which dol

I w(luld like to know the clTect of all thi smoke on radiation whkh reaches the Earths sUlface and hence on photosynthesis and on the Ch content of the atmosphere Professor Flohn referred of course to dust including man-triggered Jwt hut I would think that ~moke from this anmwl burning which is increasing as a rcult of th destruction of the cosedmiddotcllIopy forest is even more importanl

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56 GROWTH WITHOUT ECOOISASTERS)

Flohn (Keynoter) The question of grass-burning in the semi-humid and semi-arid tropics has been

discussed on numerous occasions in relation to the facts that were described so convincingly many years ago from Africa We know that an area of the order of at least 10 million square kilometres is affected by this process every year and I agree completely with the view that this greatly changes the heat-budget We know from radiation measurements that atmospheric turbidity in the tropics increases substanshytially in the dry season partly due to the accretion of water molecules to the hygroscopic particles Here the turbidity is as great as in the most polluted indusshytrial centres of the world eg Tokyo or Los Angeles But in the tropics this effect is spread over many millions of square kilometres so that it is of a much greater importance 10 the large-scale climate It leads to a local surface-heating during the dry season this includes also areas where the remaining humid forests are being burned down as is now widely the case in SOllth America

Bryson (Panellistl I would like to add a few comments in response to this You are right there is a lot

orthat smoke the best quantitative estimate that I have neen anle to come up with anywhere in the literature or hy calculating myself is something of the order of60 million metric tons of agricultural smoke put into the air every year If you add to that the dust put into the air by the overuse of marginal lands in dry areas such as the Sahel Rajasthan etc the air pollutant product of these mostly Third World countries is equal to the total industrial rollution of the world

Iast Novemher I puhli hed a rarer on the cffect of this material Oil the hemisshyph(ric surface heat-hudg(t I fllund that to t he present time the erfeet of man-made low-level partil1e pllllution abollt halfindustrial and half agricultural) isjust ahout equalled in the oppllil( s(ne hy the clrcet of increased carhon dioxide Now this would give us a very interesting result if we were to switch to nuclear power immctliahly and relieve the industrial air pollution totally What would then hapshypellmiddot) We wHlld havc neither the carhnn dioxide nor the industrial smoke part hut WI IHIIII hltl( 1ill the agrinrltural pollillion and ih effect is to drive the temperashytme till other way

Whal dlllf this mean is that as we Ill not knnw the whole answer we should not walk on the cdge of the diff where we do not know just how solid t he ground is We should preserve a broader safety-zone hetween where we are and the carrying capacity of the Earth because of such uncertainty It does not mean that we are safe because we do not know the answers the more uncertain the more cautious and the more prudent we must be

Nicola I first had a question ahout atmospheric dust which has heen well answered so I

have switched to two others The first one is to Professor Flohn as far as I have noted you have not spoken ahout microclimatic sllldies being of use in agriculture and whether from a practical point of view something could he done in that direction) I am peaking ahout the intluenc on insects on the ground and the albedo of cultivated areas

The second question is whether any of you have any news about any current studies of abrupt orbital changes and if anything is known about the intluence of orbital changes which could be very important I think that some centuries ago there was such a case which at that moment completely altered the whole situation rather abruptly

dJilllJsectS9 CUi IA aka S i4 i J_ 4 J yen l) L J- 4444A4lIIiLl

WHITHER THE A

Iohn (Keynoter) R~garding the first question

way Looking at the Iarge-s~1 nwstly interested only those everal hundred thousand q

Regarding the question ofal the time-scale of 20000 years next is practically negligible I mlher abrupt events with dral icc-age and the present timeshyless For exlmple the equatOi metres has been desiccated a is only one of the available ex of these abrupt changes the largc-scale volcanic events

Schun I am concerned with energ~

Ihe Energy Research and [) ponds to ERDA in Ihe Unit tcm in Sweden will be wk 01 thlse industrialized countti unately 70 ofour tolal enerf IS c can afford IIntil ahout t will he ahlc to support ourscl not mon Yct we arc one of t horticr We also have hydrol UI energy which is almost tl hlnever we switch from oil I hm hnlmclectric and nucle Ille thll frllm an cnvironrm hl)iClt-lholl~h we do not kr tllher hHlIllh Thi ahernat But SIKh hUllling ur wood emiddot Ihllligh slllllething like the amiddot ~car continually in the gro

With Ihis hmkground in m luld he good to walk intl)l1 l)pen even though we might 1

c arc willing to take any de C Illllst know much beller t hoxitle emissions We know IIlg But is this an etlect als Hhreaseli hurning of fossil fL tlnl a mall increase in teml ~middot bullbull II)n tlillxide in photl)syntl 10111) the answer Can loul plcdiamentl

Ihe emissions from humin It If particulates which it retleting solar energy So p tCl1lperature as an overall re IIl1al circe we cannot do ve

WHITHER THE ATMOSPHERE AND EARTHS CUMATES 57

Flnhn (Keynoter) middotten Regarding the first question (am not sure how many areas we can handle in this J so way Looking at the large~scalc and indeed glohal question in which we should he )f at mostly interested only thwe efreets which arc operative over areas of the order of cree several hundreu thnusanu square kilometres are effective ennugh mm Regarding the question of ahrupt changes in the past the orhital elements work in Ianshy the time-scale ofOO()O years anu more and their variation from one century to the the next is practically negligihle Recently evidence was found that there are apttn he

JlISshy rather ahrupt evenh with dramatic climatic variation-as large as hetween the last dis icc-age anu the present time-occurring in the time-scale ora few hunureu years or ater less Forexamplethe equatorial Lake Kivu in Africa with a uepth of more than 300 the metres has heen desiccated and filled again in a period of about 300 years and this eing is only one of the available examples Very little can be said as yet about the caUfes

of these ahrupt changes the most appropriate hypothesis is that of a clustering of large-scale volcanic events

Schutt Iot I am concerned with energy ue and ih environmental effech working a I do in ilh the Energy Reeanh and Development Commiion in Sweuen which corre shy

j f() pond to EKDA III the Lnileu State Future oeciion concerning our energy ito ~ystem in Sweden will he taken al the parliamentary level Sweden repreenh one

of those industrialized (ountrie that are u~ing fosil fueh to a large extent Approxshyhe nrld imately 70 of our total energy comes from oil If we go for nuclear energy as much

as we can afTord until ahout the year OOO whilh we have not yet decided on we ms- will he abie to support ourselves as to approximately 30 from Iluclear energyshyade ~ not more Yet we arc one of those cOllntries with quite a lot of uranium within our out horders We also have hydroeleclril power supplying at the moment ahout 15 of this Oil I energy which is almost the maximum we can produce directly from water So

wer whenever we swilch from oil 10 something else we need some other energy source hap- than hydroelectric and nuclear power We do not have many possihilities coal is hut one that from an el1vimnmentd point of view is even worse than oil A second aa- choile-thnugh we do not klww if it is possihle or ucrllilo 11 a yet-i wood or

Jlher hi(llllagts Thi alltlIlative would redule our depcmiellle on importd fuel nll But suh hurning (If wood t would Ieleae earhon dillide to the atmosphere We though sOlllething like the same amollnt would he tixed again uuring thc following

ying year continually in the growth of new trees and shruhs 1afe With this hackground in mimi I would like to ask a few questions First of all it

and would be goou (J walk into an eventual carbon dioxile catastrophe with ones eyes open even though we might not he able to uo much towaru avoiding it But hefore we are willing to take any decision in the mailer of reducing the lise of fossil fuels we must know much heller than at present what will be the effee of the carhon dioxide emissions We know that the carhon dioxiJe in the troposphere i~ increasshy

so I ing But is this an effect also of deforestation Or is it an effect entirely of the

have imreaseJ hurning of fossil fuels Or will the hurning of fossil fuels he the hasis of

ure only a small increase in temperature and at the same time increase the fixation of

that carbon dioxide in photosynthesis so that an equilibrium will he reached I do not the now the answer Can lour galaxy of leader on the platform help me in this

predicamenl1 The emissions from hurning fossil fuels include not onl y calhon uioxide but also arent

eeof lot of particulates which it can he argued will work in the opposite direction hy retlecting solar energy So perhaps there will be a decrease in the Earths surface ago temperature as an overall result As long as we only fear but do not really 1I011 thetlion total effect we cannot do very much or advise at the political level Iwhere the final

l) 4+- Q yen a

(iROWTH WIHIOUI FCODISASTERS WIIIIIIIR 11111

control aclions have to be takenJ So I will finish by asking this question What I h eclllHt reqllirlll1ent f~ll acti~m ~houlJ be taken at the moment from your point of view and what resources th11 Ill C~lIlmiddotlptllal frame II wOIIIJ it be possihle to use to become more sure about these effects lIt hI [I this I1HlrnilH b Pnl

Im p~lint If vil inIkl Malone (Chairman) mllllltilt and Hlteraction ~Ir th

I will eek 10 answer some of your questions in my summation but tirst call on rill Icrnd frcing functill1 Professor Hare jllfUllg1 Ile perpcti1 and

hll~)1 has emerged an im Hare (Panel lis) IIhll1 hieh we mll1 addr

In the wake of the last speaker who has said almost precisely what I intended to I he thml requirement in COil say I shall he very hrief May I point Ollt that ifpan nfthe solution is to lW nuclear til 11 e the plliti(al pwee hecallse going nuciear for electric slipply does not innease the thermal loading at 1I111ltillll In IllI lSI Ihi the hase (fthe atmosphere ami Illes redue the arbon dioxide load then Iearty hldl I imply the aggrgdli going nudear may well he an environmentally atlrativ option Bllt where in the 1111 Ii I Irk AgregalilIl world elll you find an llVirol1l1lentalist to admit t hii at the present moment mlq1 alilil i 1Clfnplihld b Politically the nuclear energy trade i in deep trouhle the puhlic helief heing that htkCIlI 1111111 diffcrl111 p nuclear energy is more dangerous t hall allY ot her form of energy production Yet Ih 11111 laboratory III intitUi the statistics show otherwise slIggesting that coal-mining has perhaps the higher t-l1 I1mcnlal and Illlllgoerlll plllential impat on human health and on things ecological It ertainly does not do ill 111 intitutilHlal intllllllll anylhin a- till ollgglCSt to alleviatc the carhon dioxide loading hut may I just IItc ClIlHllllllit i to do J stresgt that at the moment any suggestion from this Conference that we should 111 bdHI the politicians ge adVOCa11 going nuclear to a very milch greater extent than at present-perhaps to encc 11 e IHlre of aelil 40 of electric supply by the end of the century-woulJ he received with hoots of I Ullli- Ihlre IS clearly a lIC deriion from the people who make environmental opinion This is something that IqImiddotnle 111 the Internllion we hie tll face-and properly so It Ilidl lile principal funet

~Il 1IlI1meniai impllt 111 ntr~t horsson hI I~I need Ihee a~esl1llnl

To what degrce is the CO content the clIgte or mayhe the effcet of the warming Sildl ltIn il1~tilillilln will h I of Ihe allllophere and t he oceans I r it is so that the warming lead 10 an increase tcll1mll1tal hll(lie~ hih ill of at lI1ophlric (() iII sOllie WI Yor other for example dill to interact ion of air allli lII1Mlllc from the ~ind of i sca thi will Ill nlllr afkct dramatiltally all forecats of future happenings 111111111111 111111 he prepared However thi~ dillS 11l) d1tl1gl~ my opilliol1 that Man has to hI extremely careful hIIldmiddotII~lk f 11Ih all int rlgardill) ailihe posible lIIall-made tlIIses of ellvironll1enlal change llndl bill 110 inte~rtled in

UI lIclgue in prediliH lIalm1l It middothairmIII llll1limlillg Session hlrHlh--1 e and alllwsphe

I believe the answer to your question is that the C02 increase so far has been ~llld llf 1I11dllctuai elite or all calculated to he responiihlc for 2middot- 3 tenths of a degree Celsius hut this is below the rlllp~ll reward~ th11 stran~( level of noise of natural variahilitv of climates Thus while the increase in C02 has rllcllIpid with Isell11inl~ tended to produce warming of the atmosphere during the last 30 or 40 years this Itle I f~hion that i-ind III in effect has heen more than counteracted by other cause- tending 10 produce a nel IIhtlUI1lClllalit~ I helieve thel cooling That is ltthollt the situation as it tands today tHch Phlfessor Flohn has 11

Our Secretary-General has stressed the importance of making concrete suggesshy I hlI1 VHI all-~spdally tions to avoid the kind ofecodisasters we are discllssing The lessons taught to us by 011Il~ memhers of our uuJienl historians of the politics of sdence tell us that when confronted with situations the pnllccdings such as thtle which Professor Flohn has outlined so eloquently this morning Ihere are three requirements for a successful response

First is the searching re-examination of human vallie preferences We will hear more ahollt that later this week hllt I will simply illustrate this requirement by two deciions that emanated from the Stockholm conference One is the resolution which states that natural reltOllrces arc a shared human resource and so there shoulJ be some equity about their distribution among all people The second-and it was interesling that this should come from an intergovernmenlal conferenceshywas a clear-cut recognition of our responsibility to future generations

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WHI HER TlH ATMOSPHERE AND EARTHS CLIMATES 59

The sccond requiremcnt for succes~ful tackling of environmental prohlems i that ne~ conceptual frameworks mut he dcveloped and I think that was pointed out to us this morning hy Profesor Bryson when he touched on the need for a sytems point of view in Illoking at these problem IThere is all the time stmn1 mutualit~ ami interaction of the internal natllLti pnlccsses and human intervention plus external forcing function The whole mat ter of solar terrestrial interaction is aining a new perspective and a new scnse of respectahility The ocean interaction linkage has emerged as an important element of this new conceptllal framework within which we must address the climatic prohlem

The third requirement in confronting environmental situation and one that does im olve the political prllle and abo due hUI]lltln determination is in titlltional innovation In 0111 Iasc this requircs nplllcment or international cooperation which i simply thc ltlggregalion or national efforh hy proper integration of the s-ientilk work Aggregation charaderied the activities of IG Y ami IHP True integratinn i accomplihed by bringing together scientists of different nationalities dilferent cultures different political persuasions working shoulder to shoulder in the same lahoratory or institute I would say further that the ell-mingling of intershygovernmental and non-governmental inititutions is a part of this process offahionshying new institutional intrlllllentalitics And I think the lthallenge here to the icienshylitic cOIllTllunity is to do as Professor Hare has iuggested-to illuminate the~e issues herore the politicians get to arguing about them at intergovernmental confershyences where cnurses of action arc determined on political rather than scientific grollnds There is clearly a need for these inhgrated operations of the kind that is represented in the Internationallnstitllte for Applied Systems Analysis in Austria of which the principal function must he to develop the kind (If international environmental impact assessment that Profesior Hare has ~uggested Especially do we need these acssmenh for alternative kinds of energy trategies

Such an institution will be ctfective only if it is coupled dllely to the intershygovernmental hodics which in the last analysis are going to make the decisions that will emanate from the kind of international impact asseSSTllents which the scientific community must he prepared to deVelop We might further note that one of the characteristics of such an institution 111IIst be that it i not only integrated internashytionally hut also integrated in a disciplinary sense This will require lawyers amI ollr colleagues in prediction uch as ecullOmits pychulogists biologish chemih-yes and atmospheric ~cientish We arc going to have to fashion a new kind of intellectual elite or at least understanding which places a true value on and properly rewards that strange creature who wanders aimlessly in academia today preoccupied with [seemingly obscure] interdisciplinary activities If only we are ahle tll ra-hion that kind of instrumentality and couple it with a decision-making in-tnlTllentality I hclieve there is hope that we can avoid the kind of ecodisaster which Prorcor F10hn ha pointed Ollt so heautirully

Thank you all-especially our keynoter and our animated panellists as well as many memhers of our audience for their patience and enlightened participation in the proceedings -~

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soo GROWtH WITHOUT ECODISASTERS

sometimes it is financially diftkult sometimes it is physically difficult It does not mean that it can therefore nOI he done

Bnson (Chairman)All ofthis proves my point thai you cannol oplimize on more Ihan one variahle at

a time ILaughter and applause I

FosberR I put my hand up lirst with one comment to make now unfortunately I have three

(Laughter[ But they are short One is that I think suhsequent interventions have refuted much or what has gone hlfore The second is that I think Iyoung I Nicholas Polunin has given us perhaps the perfect example of Garrett Hardins Tragedy of the Commons in his comment Third I have a question for the Chairman in regard 10 this husiness of not heing ahle to oplimize I a multiplicity of) components Granted that the optimum in all components ofa complex system cannot he reached simulta neously I would ask whet her ifone adopts a holistic view there may not be an optimization of the resultanl of all these components-in other words an optimiZation of the functioning of the ystem as a whole

Bryson (Chairman) That I ~uppose depends on how you detine the optimum-optimum stabililY or

optimum Ivarious I other things If you define a composite variable that takes all these things into account then you can maximize il I shall not continue though hecause the Chairman should not use up time that other people want

Iohn When dealing with variahility most people I hink only of timc-variahility on one

particular spot and Ihi is especially trlle wilh regard III climatic anomalies It has frequently heen said that if for example we have some eli malic anomalies which arc producing a loss in the productivity of wheat and other cereals this may smooth hecause other areas have an opposite effect But here I must say one Iwordl of warning

We know now and I think all my fellow climatlllogiil could give example of this that Ihe di matic anomalies over Ihe glohe as a whnle arc dosel y interrelated and thaI il is not only pnssihle hut we have several examples of this kind in recent times of severe anonmlies in several parts of the world occurring simultaneously Now it is only very recently that we have come to ohserve these matters on a glohal scale The lasl example of this kind was in the year 1972 when we had the lowest temperatures in the Canadian Arctic and the Greenland area and simultaneously the major drought and failure of the Indian monsoon the catastrophe of the fish-catch off the Peruvian coast and the peak of the Sahel drought All these events and some more arc elmely interrelated-not hy mndom (chancel hut hy law It is the interrelationship of these anomalies which we are calling teleconnections and which arc mainly produced hy the distrihution of land sea and mountains on Earth This may create if we take the Earl h as a whole even larger anomalies such as we have experienced in recent years

Royston [Even as your] eternal optimist II must admit that if we look into the past of

course we will be pessimistic But if we look into the future there are grounds for optimism With UNEP [support at CEl) we have recently been working wilh 30 different developing countries We have found that in those 30 developing counshytries over 12000 top-level decision-makers and policy-makers have expressed a

ENVIRONMEN

definite need for alten Those for me are gr

Shirr JIlgtl a comment wil

species in an ecosy~lel which hai a well-delint oftime[ln suchanem hy Ihe gtpecies in ques growth-rale which arc delined equilihrium po that is characleriled hI workahle 1trategy whc deHlof variahilitY-sll the carrying capacity i period~oftime In sud

h not Ihe human ~pc of a rapidly changing I of our planet [Is not prohlems 10 make cleal believe to he well helDlA act quickly to accomr manifest ihelf withlli R-strategists will he ul

Misra I would like to add a

management require s it is not pos ihle to miln Management at the m resourcegt I do not hel importanl to manage Ol

ofcdllcational commur cians I he electorategt together Governmenh the re~ourcegt The cie say that we must gthan moment

You will know that ir and other plantgt whid to the people merely t ones hilt of c()ur~e thl served Without actual heller congtervation of India from lime to time people worhip these p have increa cd

It is ahsolulely true alone will not do conse to he changed indeed e forest because in Ind wilderness-which 01

countries-yet it is illmiddot

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CONCLUSIONS FOR HIE fUTURE 593

her raise two points to what extent do we know what is the impact on the nlal environment of the military in peacetime ami Isecondly] could we not ask for

environmental impaot ~tatements on all military operations ith ami Polunin Snr (Chairman)

no it Thank you very much M r President That brings to mind another somewhat Ilme comparable situation with regard to the ozone shield which there is very wideshy

spread concern about I think we helped a little bil in our first Conference hecause we had in it Stewart Udall Iformerly Secretary of the Interiorl and Reid Bryson who is wilh us this time again They were fresh from the deliherations in Washingshyton which resulted in the canning of the great American SST project hut they

ole~

l~rc said-and prohably this is still true-they do not know what goes on in military -the connections in the way of high-Oying jets and everything else In other wordsious the lauthoritiesltry to suppress it hut Isome scientists] are too hright and persistentand

Flohn Four years ago I was asked to speak hefore the Swedish Research Council ahout

this question Llfthe future evolution ofclimate under the impact of Mans activities the The meeting took place in the Cahinet Room in Stockholm under the chairmanshipcn~l of the Ithenl Prime Minister Olof Palme and was followed by a rather livelyand

di~cussjon at the end of which Prime Minister Palme asked me a question saying the We are to some extent here mere politicians whereas you are a cientisr If you

should give lir~t priority to one or another action what WOLlld you prefer This heingln unexpected qlleition for Ille I said after a while Well it seems to me that at lea~t in western cOLlntries society is not prepared to accept the general iJea that economic growth Icannot go onl for ever So the tirst issue should he to convince the puhlic and direct puhlic opinion 10 the effect that growth cannot he for ever hut ifit goes on must necessarily overshoot It seems to me that at least in the western societies we must do thisjoh hecallse politicians cannol act without some consent of public opinion

hae ilL I Polunin Snr (Chairman) donmiddot Ihallk you vcry mLlch Professor Hohn for that quite vital point 1 think without Hag~ question we all agree hut we will just have 10 go on repeating it until it is heard 1 -talt Forgive me if I missed you hefore hut there was sLlch a sea of hands bOlit )1 of Goldsmith ime~ I was going to sav very much what Professor F10hn has just sakI but in a slightly

ditTerent way The suhject ofthi Conference really i~ Can there he development of a without ecodisasters Hut the term development has never heen adequately cd hy defined If deveillpment means the continued suhstitution of machinery and other hen I inpub for human labour so as to increase per capila production and hence conshylnu~c sumption and therehy foster economic growth-then surely the answer is that there arhy is no possibility ofdevelopment for very much further without ecodisasters I think ~ for we have re(lched a stage where it is extremely difficult for serious people to hen continue to assume that somehow with the aid of science and technology we can logshy go on indefinitely enjoying economic growth without changing the c1imale in a ~anl( disastrous way without large-scale famines annihilation of wildlife etc In fact we rm- are heading towards a whole series of crises which can only be exacerbated by u we further economic growth time So surely the answer to the question Can we have development without

s for ecodisastersT must be No we cant-unless we redefine development but then we have got to be able to do so very precisely which we have not yet managed to

I

44 (ROWTU Wit HOUT ECODlSAS ERS

s~WHR J S (15) NOles on Ihe possible physical causes of long-IeIm weal her anomalies U10 TeellliclIl Note 66 pp 227 - 48

SUIfI()IR S (1976) 7ft (ielln Strutel Plenum Press New York and Lonmiddot don xxi + 419 pp IX figs

SM Ie 1fOR I (1971) ll1wmiddotUttllt Ciilwt flldUCllti(JII Report (~r th Studr (~r filII 1111(t 011 Clillate (SM1() MIT Press Camhridge Massachusetls 108 PImiddot

SYNN(HI T J (1977) 101l1tolllIl hopiCIII Forests it Redell lIith Special R(Jershy(ICI to AMca Moniloring and Assessment Centre of SCOPE Report No5

WANG W C et ( (1976) Greenhouse effects due 10 man-made perturbation of trace glses Science 194 pp 685-90

WMO TECHNICAL CO1MITTEE PANEL OF EXPERTS (1977) Technical Report WMO Bulle till 26 pp 5()- 5

WMO-ICSU JOINT ORGANIZING COMMITTEE (1975) The Physical Basis oleimiddot mal( and Clllllatl Moeelill GARP Publication Series No 16 Geneva xxiii + 265 pp 96 figs

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tApound$[tPU~4_2C_~

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l) 4+- Q yen a














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l) 4+- Q yen a














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l) 4+- Q yen a














What Jurces

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WHITHER THE A



























l) 4+- Q yen a














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11


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tUtmiddotl1tU







tApound$[tPU~4_2C_~

-- ow 14if1P1 ~



























WHITHER THE A



























l) 4+- Q yen a














What Jurces

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ill hear hvtvL








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tUtmiddotl1tU







tApound$[tPU~4_2C_~

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l) 4+- Q yen a














What Jurces

~all on






ill hear hvtvL








bull














ENVIRONMEN











~







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tUtmiddotl1tU







tApound$[tPU~4_2C_~

-- ow 14if1P1 ~



























WHITHER THE A



























l) 4+- Q yen a














What Jurces

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ill hear hvtvL








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~







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WHITHER THE A



























l) 4+- Q yen a














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ill hear hvtvL








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l) 4+- Q yen a














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l) 4+- Q yen a














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ENVIRONMEN











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