Report No. 6 of the Transportation Services Committee

Regional Council Meeting of June 28, 2012 9

YORK-SIMCOE BOUNDARY AREA TRANSPORTATION NEEDS STUDY UPDATE

(Regional Council at its meeting on June 28, 2012 amended this Clause to include reference to the Town of Georgina in recommendations 1 and 3.) The Transportation Services Committee recommends the adoption of the recommendations contained in the following report dated May 8, 2012, from the Commissioner of Transportation and Community Planning.

1. RECOMMENDATIONS It is recommended that: 1. Council direct staff to work with Simcoe County, Bradford West Gwillimbury, East

Gwillimbury and Newmarket to develop a joint communication strategy to advocate for the Highway 400-404 Link and to report back to Council by the end of 2012 with an update on the progress.

2. Council direct staff to examine options for moving forward with the Highway 400-

404 Link. 3. The Regional Clerk circulate this report to the Ministry of Transportation and the

Clerks at the County of Simcoe, Bradford West Gwillimbury, New Tecumseth and the Clerks of York Region’s nine local municipalities.

2. PURPOSE This report provides an update on the York-Simcoe Boundary Area Transportation Needs Study which is being undertaken as an in-house joint study between York Region and County of Simcoe staff and highlights the need for the development of a joint communication strategy to advocate for the Highway 400-404 Link.

Report No. 6 of the Transportation Services Committee

Regional Council Meeting of June 28, 2012

3. BACKGROUND In November 2011, Council authorized staff to proceed with the York-Simcoe Boundary Area Transportation Needs Study York Region Council authorized staff to proceed with the joint Study through Report No. 9 of the Planning and Economic Development Committee, Regional Council Meeting of November 17, 2011. Similarly, County of Simcoe Council authorized staff to proceed with this Study through Corporate Services Committee Report 11-161, October 2011. Building on the technical analysis undertaken for the York Region and County of Simcoe Transportation Master Plans, the purpose of this Study is to undertake a more detailed analysis of boundary area travel demand and an assessment of alternative network scenarios for use in monitoring and advocating for boundary area transportation improvements, including the Provincial freeway link between Highway 400 and Highway 404 (Highway 400-404 Link, also known as the Bradford Bypass). The results of this Study will assist York Region and Simcoe County in providing input into the Ministry of Transportation Simcoe Area Transportation System Review Study currently being undertaken in support of the Provincial Growth Plan for Simcoe County. The study results will also assist in advocating for inclusion of the Highway 400-404 Link in the Growth Plan update for the entire Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area as well as ultimately support planned growth in East Gwillimbury by providing needed transportation capacity. Additional background information is presented in the November 2011 report to Planning and Economic Development Committee. Attachment 1 shows the road network and land features in the study area.

4. ANALYSIS AND OPTIONS York-Simcoe cross boundary travel grew 16% from 2001 to 2011 York-Simcoe cross boundary traffic continues to increase. The 2011 cordon count data shows that traffic crossing the York-Simcoe boundary increased 16.4 % during the 12-hour count period between 2001 and 2011. Total vehicle trips increased from 86,200 in 2001 to 100,320 in 2011. A vast majority of the traffic was concentrated on the three major road connections between York Region and Simcoe County (Yonge Street, Highway 400 and Highway 27).

Report No. 6 of the Transportation Services Committee

Regional Council Meeting of June 28, 2012

Alternative network scenarios were assessed under 2031 forecast travel demand which captures the effects of the Growth Plan The initial step in the travel demand analysis includes updating and expanding the York Region travel demand forecasting model for the boundary area, utilizing information from the Simcoe County travel demand forecasting model. The model forecasts trips for the morning peak period of a typical weekday. The main input into the travel demand forecasting model includes future population and employment forecasts by traffic zone, consistent with the Provincial Growth Plan, York Region Official Plan and County of Simcoe Official Plan. Following development of the expanded travel demand forecasting model, the analysis includes an initial assessment of transportation needs under existing conditions for use in validating the model and for use in assessing alternative network scenarios. The travel demand analysis also includes a detailed assessment of alternative transportation network scenarios in 2031, including Do-Nothing, Base Case Planned Improvements and Base Case Planned Improvements Plus the Bradford Bypass. The travel demand analysis includes an assessment of the performance of each alternative at both the screenline level and along key corridors, highlighting the ability of each alternative to address travel demand and reduce congestion in the network. Key findings are presented below and the draft Study report is available on the York Region website at www.york.ca (under news and information). Continued growth in York-Simcoe cross boundary travel demand will increasingly impact Regional and Municipal road operations Increasing population and employment levels in York Region and Simcoe County will result in continued growth in cross boundary travel demand. The travel demand analysis for the 2031 horizon years shows that if no improvements are made to the existing transportation network (the Do-Nothing Scenario) all three major cross boundary roads will be congested, with travel demand on Yonge Street and Highway 400 being well over capacity. Forecast traffic conditions for the Do-Nothing Scenario are illustrated on Attachment 2. Attachment 3 illustrates the forecast traffic conditions in 2031 with all the planned network improvements within the study area assumed to be in place (the Base Case Planned Improvements Scenario). Planned improvements include:

• Widening of Highway 400 from six to eight lanes • Highway 404 Extension from Green Lane to Ravenshoe Road • Widening of Highway 89 from Highway 400 to Alliston • Highway 27 improvements from Highway 9 to 6th Line

Report No. 6 of the Transportation Services Committee

Regional Council Meeting of June 28, 2012

• Highway 88 improvements from Highway 400 to Bond Head • A new interchange at Highway 400/5th Line • Yonge Street improvements between 8th Line and Highway 89 • Reconstruction and opening of Bathurst Street between Green Lane and Yonge

Street • Doane Road improvements between Yonge Street and Woodbine Avenue, including

a new interchange at Highway 404 • Queensville Sideroad improvements between Leslie Street and Woodbine Avenue • 2nd Concession improvements between Green Lane and Doane Road • Other collector roads in Bradford and Queensville. The analysis shows that implementation of the planned improvements will address some localized deficiencies. However, the significant issue of longer distance trips crossing over between Highway 400 and Highway 404 will not be addressed and cross boundary capacity deficiencies and congestion will remain even with the planned improvements. Attachments 4 and 5 illustrate the forecast traffic conditions with implementation of the Highway 400-404 Link (the Base Case Planned Improvements Plus the Bradford Bypass Scenario). Attachment 4 illustrates the volume to capacity conditions in the network (with red representing road segments at or over capacity), and Attachment 5 shows the travel demand forecast to be drawn to the Highway 400-404 Link (with green representing traffic reduction on the Regional and Municipal road network). With the Highway 400-404 Link in place, longer distance trips are naturally drawn to this corridor, reducing traffic volumes on the remainder of the network including Yonge Street, Davis Drive, Green Lane, Doane Road and Queensville Sideroad. Findings of this study reinforce the conclusions of previous background studies and reconfirms the need for the Highway 400-404 Link The findings of the joint York-Simcoe Boundary Area Transportation Needs Study reinforce the findings of previous background studies. The Study concludes that cross-boundary travel will continue to grow between York Region and Simcoe County and currently planned improvements, including planned Regional, Municipal and Highway 400 improvements, will not address the forecast travel demand. The significant issue of network congestion caused by longer distance trips crossing over between Highway 400 and Highway 404 will not be addressed with currently planned improvements alone. The study reconfirms the need for the Highway 400-404 Link.

Report No. 6 of the Transportation Services Committee

Regional Council Meeting of June 28, 2012

The updated needs analysis will be used to advocate for inclusion of the Highway 400-404 Link (Bradford Bypass) in the Growth Plan York Region and Simcoe County staff will continue to advocate for the inclusion of the Highway 400-404 Link in the Growth Plan. The Growth Plan has been in effect since 2006, with provision for review and update every 5 years. MTO has initiated the second phase of their Simcoe Area Transportation Study in support of Growth Plan Amendment 1 (Simcoe Sub-Area Amendment – January 2012). Phase 1 was completed in 2011 and included a detailed origin/destination survey of existing traffic patterns in the Simcoe Area. Phase 2 of the project was initiated in February 2012 and includes development and assessment of a multi-modal transportation system solution for the Simcoe Area. The MTO study is expected to be complete by spring 2013. York Region staff will continue to provide input into the MTO Simcoe Area Transportation Study to ensure that Provincial network planning for this area addresses York-Simcoe cross boundary transportation needs and is consistent with the findings of the joint York-Simcoe Study, including the need to implement the Highway 400-404 Link by 2031. A joint communication strategy will assist in advocating for the Highway 400-404 Link In order to advocate action by the Province to proceed with planning and implementing the Highway 400-404 Link, it would be beneficial to coordinate York Region’s efforts with Simcoe County and directly affected municipalities including Bradford West Gwillimbury, East Gwillimbury, and Newmarket. A coordinated and consistent municipal position on the need and timing for the Highway 400-404 Link would maximize our efforts and potential for success. A coordination meeting between York Region, Simcoe County and municipal staff to formulate a joint communication strategy is recommended. Next Steps The proposed next steps are: • A joint study report will be submitted to MTO’s Simcoe Area Transportation Study

as part of York Region and Simcoe County input. • Coordinate a meeting with Simcoe County, Bradford West Gwillimbury, East

Gwillimbury, and Newmarket staff to formulate a communications strategy for advocacy to the Province on the implementation of the 400-404 Link.

• Staff to report back on the municipal discussion by end of 2012.

Report No. 6 of the Transportation Services Committee

Regional Council Meeting of June 28, 2012

Link to Key Council-approved Plans The following policies are specified in the Region’s Official Plan in support of addressing the increasing demand for inter-regional travel between York Region and Simcoe County: Policy 7.2.53

To work with the Province and local municipalities to plan for and protect the following corridors and facilities:

c. the Bradford Bypass. Policy 7.2.61

To plan and co-ordinate cross-boundary transportation needs with adjacent municipalities and appropriate agencies.

This report supports the 2011 to 2015 Strategic Plan in the following priority area:

• Continue to deliver and sustain critical infrastructure.

5. FINANCIAL IMPLICATIONS There are no financial implications as a result of this report. The York-Simcoe Boundary Area Transportation Needs Study is being conducted as an in-house study using existing staffing resources and expertise.

6. LOCAL MUNICIPAL IMPACT Implementation of the Highway 400-404 Link would remove most of the longer distance trips from the Regional and Municipal road system in this area. These longer distance trips are adding to traffic congestion and associated effects in various communities, both in York Region and Simcoe County (including Bradford West Gwillimbury, New Tecumseth, East Gwillimbury, Newmarket, Aurora and King Township). In August 2004, York Region completed the final sections of what has essentially become the Newmarket Bypass. The project included widening and reconstruction of Highway 9 from Highway 400 to Bathurst Street, Bathurst Street from Highway 9 to Green Lane, Green Lane from Bathurst Street to Woodbine Avenue and the Highway 404 Extension from Davis Drive to Green Lane. The comprehensive transportation initiative was intended to mitigate the effects of traffic congestion through Newmarket that was in part a result of longer distance trips making the crossover between Highway 400 and Highway 404. This initiative was successful in improving traffic conditions in

Report No. 6 of the Transportation Services Committee

Regional Council Meeting of June 28, 2012

Newmarket, but is not a long term solution to the need for a Highway 400-404 Link as it will not be able to meet long-term (2031) travel demand.

7. CONCLUSION The York-Simcoe Boundary Area Transportation Needs Study has been undertaken as an in-house joint study between York Region and Simcoe County staff. A draft study report is available on the York Region website and has also been circulated to MTO and affected local municipalities for comment. MTO has initiated the second phase of their Simcoe Area Transportation Study in support of Growth Plan Amendment 1 (Simcoe Sub-Area Amendment – January 2012). The results of the York-Simcoe study will be used to inform the MTO study. Study findings reconfirm the need for the Highway 400-404 Link by 2031. York Region staff will continue to provide input to the MTO Simcoe Area Transportation Study to ensure that Provincial network planning for this area addresses York-Simcoe cross boundary transportation needs. Staff recommend development of a joint communication strategy on the Bradford Bypass with affected municipalities for advocacy to the Province. For more information on this report, please contact Loy Cheah, Director, Infrastructure Planning at (905) 830-4444, Ext. 5024. The Senior Management Group has reviewed this report. (The five attachments referred to in this clause are attached to this report.)

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Road Network and Land Features in the York-Simcoe Boundary Area

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2031 Do-Nothing Scenario (2031 demand on 2011 network)

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2031 Base Case with Planned Improvements

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2031 Base Case Planned Improvements Plus the Hwy 400-404 Link

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Forecast Traffic Draw to the Hwy 400-404 Link and off of Regional/Municipal roads