www.lmic.info

James RobbDirector – LMIC655 Parfet Street

Suite E310Lakewood, CO 80215-5517

Beef and Cattle --- Market Situation and Outlook

Midwest, Great Plains and Western Outlook Conference

August 14-15, 2007

Livestock Marketing Information Center

Livestock Marketing Information Center

BOXED BEEF CUTOUT VALUEChoice 600-900 Lbs. Carcass, Weekly

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

JAN APR JUL OCT

$ Per Cwt.

Avg.2001-05

2006

2007

Livestock Marketing Information Center

STEER HIDE AND OFFAL VALUELive Animal Basis, Weekly

7.60

8.10

8.60

9.10

9.60

10.10

10.60

JAN APR JUL OCT

$ Per Cwt.

Avg.2001-05

2006

2007

Livestock Marketing Information Center

LIVE TO CUTOUT BEEF PRICE SPREADMonthly

90

110

130

150

170

190

210

230

250

JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP NOV

$ Per Head

Avg.2001-05

2006

2007

Livestock Marketing Information Center

SLAUGHTER STEER PRICES5 Market Weighted Average, Weekly

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

JAN APR JUL OCT

$ Per Cwt.

Avg.2001-05

2006

2007

Livestock Marketing Information Center

MED. & LRG. #1 STEER CALF PRICES400-500 Pounds, Southern Plains, Weekly

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

JAN APR JUL OCT

$ Per Cwt.

Avg.2001-05

2006

2007

Livestock Marketing Information Center

MED. & LRG. #1 STEER CALF PRICES500-600 Pounds, Southern Plains, Weekly

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

135

140

JAN APR JUL OCT

$ Per Cwt.

Avg.2001-05

2006

2007

Livestock Marketing Information Center

MED. & LRG. #1 FEEDER STEER PRICES700-800 Pounds, Southern Plains, Weekly

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

JAN APR JUL OCT

$ Per Cwt.

Avg.2001-05

2006

2007

Livestock Marketing Information Center

FEEDER STEER vs FED STEER PRICES700-800 Lbs. Minus Slaughter Steer, S. Plains, Weekly

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

JAN APR JUL OCT

$ Per Cwt.

Avg.2001-05

2006

2007

Livestock Marketing Information Center

SLAUGHTER COW PRICESSouthern Plains, 85-90% Lean, Weekly

40

42

44

46

48

50

52

54

56

58

JAN APR JUL OCT

$ Per Cwt.

Avg.2001-05

2006

2007

Livestock Marketing Information Center

COMMERCIAL BEEF PRODUCTIONQuarterly

5.4

5.8

6.2

6.6

7.0

JAN-MAR APR-JUN JUL-SEP OCT-DEC

Bil. Pounds

Avg.2001/05

2006

2007

2008

Livestock Marketing Information Center

U S BEEF AND VEAL EXPORTSCarcass Weight, Annual

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007

Bil. Pounds

Livestock Marketing Information Center

U S BEEF CONSUMPTIONPer Capita, Retail Weight, Annual

55

60

65

70

75

80

1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007

Pounds

Livestock Marketing Information Center

ANNUAL AVERAGE CATTLE PRICES

45

55

65

75

85

95

105

115

125

135

1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007

$ Per Cwt

500-600lbSteerCalves

700-800lbFeederSteers

FedSteers

Livestock Marketing Information Center

Livestock Marketing Information Center

OMAHA CORN PRICESWeekly

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50$ Per Bu.

Avg.2001-05

2006

2007

Livestock Marketing Information Center

U S TOTAL CORN SUPPLY AND PRICECrop Year

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007

Bil. Bushels

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

2.25

2.50

2.75

3.00

3.25

3.50$ Per Bushel

Supply

Price

Livestock Marketing Information Center

KANSAS FEEDLOT CLOSEOUTSFeeding Costs per Cwt, Steers

48

53

58

63

68

73

78

83

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

$ Per Cwt.

Avg.2001/05

2006

2007

Livestock Marketing Information Center

WHOLESALE CHICKEN BREAST PRICESSkinless/Boneless, Northeast, Truckload, Weekly

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180Cents Per Pound

Avg.2001-05

2006

2007

Livestock Marketing Information Center

BROILER EGGS SETWeekly

180

185

190

195

200

205

210

215

220

225Mil. Eggs

Avg.2001-05

2006

2007

Livestock Marketing Information Center

COMMERCIAL MEAT & POULTRY PRODUCTION

By Type of Meat, Annual

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007

Bil. Pounds

Turkey

Chicken

Lamb &Veal

Pork

Beef

Livestock Marketing Information Center

Livestock Marketing Information Center

COW-CALF RETURNS AND CATTLE INVENTORY

U.S., Annual

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

$ Per Cow

90

95

100

105

110

115

Mil. Head

Cow-CalfReturns

CattleInventoryJan 1

Livestock Marketing Information Center

HEIFERS HELD AS BEEF COW REPLACEMENTS

July 1, U.S.

3

4

5

6

7

1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007

Mil. Head

-6 %

Livestock Marketing Information Center

MAJOR U S BEEF IMPORT SOURCESCarcass Weight, Annual

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Australia New Zealand Canada Argentina

Mil. Pounds

Avg.2000/04

2005

2006

Livestock Marketing Information Center

103 to 391 (2)-2 to 103 (4)

-52 to -2 (3)

CHANGE IN BEEF COW NUMBERSJANUARY 1, 1998 TO JANUARY 1, 2007

Canada, 1000 Head

-0

Prince Ed. Isl.

Canada

-3

Nova Scotia -2

0

-14

-52

103391

20916

646

Livestock Marketing Information Center

0.1 to 0.9 (2)-29 to 0.1 (4)-75.5 to -29 (4)

CHANGE IN BEEF COW NUMBERSJANUARY 1, 2006 TO JANUARY 1, 2007

Canada, 1000 Head

Canada

Prince Ed. Isl.

0

Nova Scotia 1

-12-29

-51-76

-63-35

-263

0

0

Livestock Marketing Information Center

U S BEEF IMPORTS FROM CANADACarcass Weight, Monthly

60

70

80

90

100

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

Mil. Pounds

Avg.2001-05

2006

2007

Livestock Marketing Information Center

U.S. EXPORTS OF BEEF MUSCLE CUTSWeekly

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07

1000 MT

Canada

Japan

Mexico

KoreanRep.

Livestock Marketing Information Center

U S BEEF INDUSTRY NET EXPORT VALUESAnnual

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005

Bil. $

LiveCattle

Beef &Veal

Hides &Skins

Tallow,Grease &Var Meat

Total

Livestock Marketing Information Center

TOTAL COW SLAUGHTERFederally Inspected, Weekly

70

80

90

100

110

120

130Thou. Head

Avg.2001-05

2006

2007

Livestock Marketing Information Center

HEIFER SLAUGHTERFederally Inspected, Weekly

150

160

170

180

190

200

210

220

230

240Thou. Head

Avg.2001-05

2006

2007

Livestock Marketing Information Center

LIVE WEIGHT -- STEER AND HEIFERTexas/Oklahoma Panhandle Area, Weekly

1140

1160

1180

1200

1220

1240

1260

1280Pounds

Avg.2001-05

2006

2007

Livestock Marketing Information Center

Livestock Marketing Information Center

QTRLY GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP)Real Dollar (2000) Change from Previous Quarter

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

Percent Change

Livestock Marketing Information Center

RETAIL CHOICE BEEF DEMAND INDEXAnnual, Using CPI 1980=100

10094

88 8683

79 7670 69

66 65 6359 58 56 55 53 51 50 52 53 56 55

5963 61

57

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

Index Value

Livestock Marketing Information Center

RETAIL CHOICE BEEF DEMAND INDEXSecond Quarter, Using CPI 1980=100

10093 90 90

86 8582

74 7470 70 68

64 61 60 58 57 54 53 55 5760 60 62

67 6761 62

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

Index Value

Livestock Marketing Information Center

Livestock Marketing Information Center

CHOICE MINUS SELECT BEEF PRICESCarcass Cutout Value 600-900 Lbs., Weekly

0

5

10

15

20

25

JAN APR JUL OCT

$ Per Cwt.

Avg.2001-05

2006

2007

Livestock Marketing Information Center

BEEF GRADED CHOICEAs a Percent of Beef Graded, Weekly

48

49

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

Percent

Avg.2001-05

2006

2007

Livestock Marketing Information Center

CUTOUT VALUEMonthly

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

200

Aug-06 Oct-06 Dec-06 Feb-07 Apr-07 Jun-07

$/Cwt

Prime

Branded

Choice

Select

Ungraded

Livestock Marketing Information Center

PRIMAL LOIN VALUEMonthly

120

170

220

270

320

370

Aug-06 Oct-06 Dec-06 Feb-07 Apr-07 Jun-07

$/Cwt

Prime

Branded

Choice

Select

Ungraded

Livestock Marketing Information Center

PRIMAL CHUCK VALUEMonthly

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

Aug-06 Oct-06 Dec-06 Feb-07 Apr-07 Jun-07

$/Cwt

Prime

Branded

Choice

Select

Ungraded

Livestock Marketing Information Center

LOIN VALUE COMPARISONMonthly

175

195

215

235

255

275

295

315

335

355

375

Jan-06 Mar-06 May-06 Jul-06 Sep-06 Nov-06 Jan-07 Mar-07 May-07 Jul-07

$/Cwt

Prime

Branded

Choice

Select

Livestock Marketing Information Center

WHOLESALE BEEF RIB ROLL PRICES2 In.-Lip On, Weekly

420

470

520

570

620

670

720

770$ Per Cwt.

Avg.2001-05

2006

2007

Livestock Marketing Information Center

WHOLESALE BEEF CHUCK PRICESBoneless 2 Piece, Weekly

110

120

130

140

150

160

170$ Per Cwt.

Avg.2001-05

2006

2007

Livestock Marketing Information Center

WHOLESALE BONELESS BEEF PRICESFresh, 90% Lean, Weekly

110

115

120

125

130

135

140

145

150

155

160$ Per Cwt.

Avg.2001-05

2006

2007

Livestock Marketing Information Center

CHOICE STEER PRICE vs BREAKEVENCattle Feeding, S. Plains, Monthly

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

$ Per Cwt

SteerPrice

Breakeven

ProjectedBreakeven

Latest Data: July 2007

Livestock Marketing Information Center

LIVESTOCK MARKET ISSUES

• Ethanol – Corn• Domestic Economy• Export Demand (Beef, Pork, Chicken)• Mandatory COOL and Animal ID• Swift Assets• Farm Bills and Other Legislation• Again Watch Poultry!

Livestock Marketing Information Center

Thank You