world oilseed outlook sep 10 - mielke

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Oct 2, 2010

Global Supply, Demand and Price Prospects of Major Oilseeds, Oils and Oilmeals

Presentation at Soya Summit in Minneapolis, 6 Oct 2010

Presentation at POC 2010 in Kuala Lumpur, March 10, 2010

Thomas Mielke, Executive Director of ISTA Mielke GmbH,

Global Market Research on Oilseeds, Oils and Meals,

E-mail <[email protected]>


Oct 2, 2010

� ISTA Mielke GmbH was founded in 1958

International STatistical Agricultural Information

� Independent; no supply & demand engagement, no involvement in trading (futures + cash);

� Recognized worldwide as the leading private authority for globalresearch and market analyses for oilseeds, oils & fats and oilmeals (with clients in 100 countries)

� Providing thoroughly elaborated and unbiased information of the past and current global supply, demand and price developments as well as forecasts & projections. www.oilworld.de

� The results are given in several publications under the name “Oil World” as well as in special studies (upon request)

Background to ISTA Mielke where OIL WORLD is produced


Oct 2, 2010

� Edible oil prices increasing sharply since July 2010 (despite record soya crop in US)

� High volatility ahead

� Some setback possible nearby

� We expect additional price strength in 2010/11

� Yesterday crude mineral oil rose to US $ 85 in Europe

Daily prices from 1 Jan 2010 until 1 Oct 2010

Jan10 Feb Mar Apr Jun Jly Aug Sep

700

750

800

850

900

950

1000

1050

1100

1150

1200

1250Daily Prices of 4 Oils in Rotterdam (US-$/T)

Rape oi l, Dutch

Sun oil, EU

Soya oil , Dutch

Crude palm oil, cif N.W. Eur.

The Global Oils/Fats Market is in a Production Deficit


Oct 2, 2010

The Outlook of Soybeans & other Oilseeds

Soybeans Dominate the Global Oilseed Market


Oct 2, 2010

• Dominance of Soybeans with a production of 259 Mn T in 2010/11 (down 2 Mn T)

• Rapeseed crop to drop by 4 Mn T in 2010/11

• Sunflowerseed production 2 Mn T below earlier estimates

Soybeans 59%

Rapeseed 13%

Sunflowerseed 7%

Cottonseed 10%

Groundnuts 5%

Other 6%

2010/11 = 440 Mn T

Other ctries 12%

China 5%

Argentina 20%

Brazil 26%

U.S.A. 37%

Soybeans = 259 Mn T

Global Production of 10 Oilseeds


Oct 2, 2010

96/97 98/99 00/01 02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11

90

110

130

150

170

190

210

230

250

270

290

10 Oilseeds: World Production (Mn T)

Soybeans

Other 9 oilseeds

• World output of soybeans doubled since 1994/95

• 9 other oilseeds have grown 40%


Oct 2, 2010

93/94

94/95

95/96

96/97

97/98

98/99

99/00

00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

406080

100120140160180200220240260280300

World Production (Mn T) and Area (Mn ha)

SOYBEANS

Area

Production

• World supplies of soybeans are ample and likely to remain ample in Sept/Febr 2010/11

• Strong demand for soya oil ...

• .. require a boost in soya crush by around 18 Mn T in 2010/11

• Ample supplies of soya meal


Oct 2, 2010

92/93 94/95 96/97 98/99 00/01 02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

U.S.A. China

EU-27 Brazil

Argentina

Soybeans : Crushings in Key Countries (Mn T)

• World soybean crushings to surge by around 18 Mn T in 2010/11

• Outstanding growth in China - -increasing steeply from 4 Mn T in 1991/92 to 53 Mn T in 2010/11


Oct 2, 2010

10 OILSEEDS: World Supply and Demand ( Mn T )

Forecast Change2010/11F 2009/10 09/10 08/09 07/08 06/07

Opening stocks 81.0* +21.3 59.7 70.0 83.3 72.9

Production . . . . . . 440.4* +0.2 440.2 393.9 390.1 406.0 thereof soybeans 258.9* -1.8 260.7 211.3 220.5 237.6 Sunseed . . . . . . 32.2* +/- 0 32.2 34.8 29.3 30.4 Rapeseed . . . . . 56.8* -3.8 60.6 58.4 48.6 47.7

Total supplies . . . 521.4* +21.4 500.0 463.9 473.4 478.9

Disappearance. . . 439.6* +20.7 418.9* 404.2 403.5 395.6 thereof soybeans 256.4* +18.5 237.9* 225.4 232.3 225.5 Sun+Rapeseed . 91.1* -2.7 93.8* 90.1 79.2 79.7

Ending stocks . . . 81.8* +0.8 81.0* 59.7 70.0 83.3 thereof soybeans 70.8* +2.5 68.3* 45.5 59.6 71.4

St ocks/usage 18.6% 19.3% 14.8% 17.3% 21.0%

10 OILSEEDS: World Supply and Demand ( Mn T )

Forecast Change2010/11F 2009/10 09/10 08/09 07/08 06/07

Opening stocks 81.0* +21.3 59.7 70.0 83.3 72.9

Production . . . . . . 440.4* +0.2 440.2 393.9 390.1 406.0 thereof soybeans 258.9* -1.8 260.7 211.3 220.5 237.6 Sunseed . . . . . . 32.2* +/- 0 32.2 34.8 29.3 30.4 Rapeseed . . . . . 56.8* -3.8 60.6 58.4 48.6 47.7

Total supplies . . . 521.4* +21.4 500.0 463.9 473.4 478.9

Disappearance. . . 439.6* +20.7 418.9* 404.2 403.5 395.6 thereof soybeans 256.4* +18.5 237.9* 225.4 232.3 225.5 Sun+Rapeseed . 91.1* -2.7 93.8* 90.1 79.2 79.7

Ending stocks . . . 81.8* +0.8 81.0* 59.7 70.0 83.3 thereof soybeans 70.8* +2.5 68.3* 45.5 59.6 71.4

St ocks/usage 18.6% 19.3% 14.8% 17.3% 21.0%


Oct 2, 2010

• World stocks of 10 oilseeds recovered by 22 Mn T in 2009/10

• And are set to increase further by 1-2 Mn T in 2010/11, despite the losses in rapeseed and sunflowerseed

00/01 02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

-200

0

200

400

600and Soybean Prices (in US-$/T)

OILSEEDS: Surplus/Deficit of Production

Mn T Soybeans, cif Rott.


Oct 2, 2010

• Early Outlook for the 2010/11 Season for Ending Stocks:

• Oilseeds +1 Mn T

• Oils/Fats –0.5 Mn T

At the End of the Season1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

17 oils & fats

10 oilseeds

World Stocks in Percent of Annual Usage

%


Oct 2, 2010

• Soybeans at 2-year high in Sept 2010

• Wheat at a 2-year high in August

• Corn also rallied to a 2-year high

• Cotton reached a 19-month high in mid-Sept

Daily futures from 1 Nov 2009 until 5 Oct 2010Nov DecJan10Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jly Aug Sep

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

CBOT: Daily Soybean & Wheat Futures (c/bu)

Soybeans Nov 2010

Wheat Dec 2010


Oct 2, 2010

Daily futures from 1 Nov 2009 until 1 Oct 2010Nov09 DecJan10Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jly Aug Sep

240

250

260

270

280

290

300

310

320

CBOT: Daily Soya Meal Futures ($/ST)

50-day moving average

Dec 2010


Oct 2, 2010

Daily futures from 1 Nov 2009 until 1 Oct 2010Nov09 Dec Jan10Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jly Aug Sep

36

38

40

42

44

46

CBOT: Daily Soya Oil Futures (c/lb)

Dec 2010

50-day moving average


Oct 2, 2010

Where are we going from here ?

Despite current ample supplies, prices of soybeans and

oil are supported by :

� Bullish Impacts from grains. Fight for acreage is

going to intensify in 2011. Heavy speculative buying during most July/Sept 2010 - - > but price rally

overdone, recently downward correction.

� But corn rallied yesterday to close to US $ 5.00 on

concern that the US crop may be reduced by 2% this

Friday


Oct 2, 2010




� Impacts from grains. Fight for acreage is going to

intensify in 2011. Heavy speculative participation.

� Extreme weather events in 2010 - - > the focus is now

on South America


Oct 2, 2010

74/75 80/81 86/87 92/93 98/99 04/05 10/11

0102030405060708090

100110120130140

Soybean Crop Trend Since 74/75

Mn T

U.S.A.

Argentina, Brazil & Paraguay


Oct 2, 2010

• Very dry conditions in Brazil & Argentina and during the July and August.

• Very good rains in Argentina in Sept, but still drought in Central Brazil

• Prospects indicate drier than normal conditions in Nov/Jan 2010/11 –caused by La Niña.

South America : In Brazil the Soybean Production Prospects Have

Deteriorated for the Crop in Early 2011

ARGENTINA : Rainfall in % of normalSept Aug July June May

2010p 2010 2010 2010 2010 Buenos Aires (12 stations) 161% 24% 113% 157% 338%

Santa Fé (5 stations) . . . 172% 44% 88% 13% 198%Córdoba (5 stations) . . . . 170% 16% 1% 45% 74%

Entre Ríos (2 stations) . . 94% 56% 211% 43% 158% La Pampa (2 stations) . . . 253% 65% 57% 87% 71%


Oct 2, 2010

93/94 96/97 99/00 02/03 05/06 08/09 10/11

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

and Grain Plantings ( Mn ha )

ARGENTINA: Development of Oilseed

Grains

Other Oilseeds

Soybeans

• Soybeans the by far dominant crop in Argentina

• Steep expansion at the expense of other crops,

• . . but lack of rotation

• Total cultivated area boosted by 3.4 Mn ha or 13% in past 4 years

• . . as grassland cattle diminishing


Oct 2, 2010

- 7 Mn T

• In Mato Grosso soybean plantings delayed by 3 weeks

• There are considerable supply risks ahead.

• In our preliminary estimate we expect South American soybean production to drop by 6-7 Mn T in early 2011.

South American Soybean Production Prospects for Early 2011

SOYBEANS: Output in South America ( Mn T )

2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 Brazil . . . . 65.50* 68.69 57.17 60.02 58.73 Argentina 52.00* 54.70* 31.50* 46.20 48.30 Paraguay. 6.90* 7.48 4.15 6.12 5.86 Bolivia . . . 1.75* 1.68* 1.46 1.48 1.60 Uruguay. . 1.77* 1.94* 1.17 .90 .82 Total . . . . 127.92* 134.49 95.45 114.72 115.31


Oct 2, 2010

Number of Days without Rainin March/Sept 2010


Oct 2, 2010

Soil Moisture Supplies almost depletedas of early October


Oct 2, 2010


Despite current ample supplies, prices of soybeans and oil are supported by :

� Fight for acreage is going to intensify in 2011.

� Extreme weather events. Focus now on S. America.

� Big crop losses in rapeseed and sunflowerseed.Plummeting world supplies of rape oil and sun oil.


Oct 2, 2010

Rapeseed and Oil


Oct 2, 2010

92/9393/94

94/9595/96

96/9797/98

98/9999/00

00/01 01/02

02/03 03/04

04/05 05/06

06/07 07/08

08/09 09/10

10/11

16202428323640

4448525660


RAPESEED & CANOLA

Production

Area

2010/11 World Output to Decline

Canada -1.6 Mn T

EU-27 - 1.6 Mn

Ukraine - 0.4

China - 1.0

Australia + 0.3

Strong demand

Stocks to drop

2010/11 world crush to fall for 1st time in many years


Oct 2, 2010

• Prices in Europe relatively firmer than in Canada

Prices from 01 May 2010 until 29 Sept 2010

May Jun July Aug Sep340

360

380

400

420

440

460

480

500

520

Nearest Forward Position (US-$/T)

Daily Rapeseed & Canola Futures

Winnipeg Canola

RapeseedEuronext


Oct 2, 2010

O c t o b e r / S e p t e m b e r 92/93 94/95 96/97 98/99 00/01 02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11

-1,2

-0,8

-0,4

0

0,4

0,8

1,2

1,6

2

2,4

Annual Change (Mn T)

Rape Oil : World Production

First decline in 8 years


Oct 2, 2010

92/9393/94

94/9595/96

96/9797/98

98/9999/00

00/01 01/02

02/03 03/04

04/05 05/06

06/07 07/08

08/09 09/10

10/11

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36


SUNFLOWERSEED

Production

Area

Output 2010/11:

Arg. 2.6 Mn vs 2.3

EU-27: 6.9 vs 7.0

Ukraine 7.0 vs 7.3

Russia 6.1 vs. 6.5

Strong demand

Stocks to drop


Oct 2, 2010

• World supplies of sun oil and rape oil seen declining by 1.2 Mn T in 2010/11

• In contrast to an average annual increase of 1.5 Mn T in the most recent 5 seasons

• The shortage in rape & sun oils will require unusually high increases in palm and soya oil production & usage in Oct/Sept 2010/11

• But still uncertainties in respect to production in several countries, mainly in Russia and Argentina.


Oct 2, 2010




� Fight for acreage is going to intensify in 2011

� Extreme weather events. Focus now on S. America

� Plummeting world supplies of rape oil and sun oil.

� Strong world demand


Oct 2, 2010

October / September94/95 96/97 98/99 00/01 02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

in Major Countries ( Mn T )

Crushings of 10 OILSEEDS

U.S.A.

China

India

EU-27

Brazil

Argentina

• World crush of 10 oilseeds to jump 17-18 Mn T in 2010/11

• Boom in world oilseed crushing - - growth of 10 Mn T p.a. in latest 4 years

• under the lead of China, S.America, the USA and the EU


Oct 2, 2010

The annual growth rates of

world demand of oils & fats

vitually doubled since the

late nineties

The global market is

struggling since 2007 to

expand world vegetable oil

production sufficiently

World stocks of oils/fats will

still be tight at the end of

the 2009/10 season + likely

to decline further in 2010/11

86/87 89/90 92/93 95/96 98/99 01/02 04/05 07/08 10/11

0153045607590

105120135150165180

0123456789101112

Total Usage and Annual Change (Mn T)

17 Oils & Fats : World Disappearance

Annual Change

Annual Change

World Disappearance


Oct 2, 2010

92/93 94/95 96/97 98/99 00/01 02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

EU-27: Demand & Production of 17 Oils & Fats (Mn T)

[

RisingImportNeeds\

Demand

Production

• In 2010/11 EU-27 consumption details:

• Rape oil 9.7 Mn T

• Palm oil 6.3 Mn T

• Soya oil 2.9 Mn T

• Sun oil 3.5 Mn T


Oct 2, 2010

00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11

0

2

4

6

8

10

for Bio-Fuels

for Food and other uses

Sharp Increase for Bio-Fuels (Mn T)

EU-27 : Consumption of Rape Oil

67%

64%

50%19%

• EU usage of rape oil for bio-fuels to rise to 6.7 Mn T in 2009/10 from 5.7 Mn one year and 5.1 Mn T two years ago

• Decline in prospect for 2010/11


Oct 2, 2010

O c t o b e r / S e p t e m b e r

94/95 96/97 98/99 00/01 02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20Domestic Disappearance

Production of Oils/Fats

Imports

and Imports of Oils & Fats (MnT)

INDIA: Domestic Supply & Demand

• More than 50% of domestic requirements of oils & fats were imported in past 2 years

• … compared with less 15% in the mid-nineties

• Some relief in 2010/11, but only temporary


Oct 2, 2010

94/95 96/97 98/99 00/01 02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11

048

12162024283236404448525660

CHINA : Imports of Oilseeds and Oils & Fats

Mn T

Oilseeds

Oils & Fats

Chinese imports in Oct/Sep 2010/11:

• Soybeans 53.6 Mn T (vs 50.6 and 41.1), or 57% of world imports

• Soya oil 1.7 Mn (1.6)

• All oils and fats 10.6 Mn T (vs 10.0)

• Oilmeals 3.2 Mn (3.0)


Oct 2, 2010

94/95 96/97 98/99 00/01 02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

28

32Domestic Disappearance

Production of Oils / Fats

Imports

and Imports of Oils & Fats (MnT)

CHINA: Domestic Supply & Demand

Chinese imports in Oct/Sep 2010/11:

• Soybeans 53.6 Mn T (vs 50.6 and 41.1), or 57% of world imports

• Soya oil 1.7 Mn (1.6)

• All oils and fats 10.6 Mn T (vs 10.0)

• Oilmeals 3.2 Mn (3.0)


Oct 2, 2010

• World output in Oct/Sep 2010/11:

• Soya oil 41.4 vs 38.3

• Palm oil 49.3 vs 46.4

• Rape oil 22.6 vs 23.3

• Sun oil 12.0 vs 12.3

• Stocks declining

• Demand rationing necessary in 2010/11

17 OILS & FATS : World Supply & Demand ( Mn T )

Forecast O c t o b e r / S e p t e m b e r

10/11F 09/10 08/09 07/08 06/07

Op'g stocks 18.68* 18.84 18.19 17.12 17.27

Production 175.83* 169.82* 163.10 159.39 152.16

Growth +3.5% +4.1% +2.3% +4.8% +2.8%

Imports 67.00* 64.88* 64.21 60.64 57.37

Exports 66.67* 65.23* 63.59 60.86 57.72

Consumption 176.72* 169.64* 163.06 158.11 151.96

Growth +4.2% +4.0% +3.1% +4.0% +4.3%

End stocks 18.12* 18.68* 18.84 18.19 17.12

Stocks/usage 10.3% 11.0% 11.6% 11.5% 11.3%

Summary of World Balance


Oct 2, 2010

October / September98/99 00/01 02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11

90100110120130140150160170180190200210220230240

10 Oilseeds : World Crushings (Mn T)

Soybeans

9 other Seeds

• Strong world demand of veg oil for food and non-food purposes

• will boost soya oil demand and

• thus boost soybean crushings by about 17-18 Mn T in 2010/11


Oct 2, 2010

02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

Production

Consumption

Growth Rates in %

SOYA OIL World Production vs. Demand


Oct 2, 2010

SOYA OIL : World Exports ( Mn T )October / September

10/11F 09/10 08/09 07/08 06/07 U.S.A.. . . 1.40* 1.55* 1.00 1.32 .85

Argentina. 5.03* 4.47* 4.83 5.94 6.03 Brazil . . . 1.20* 1.52* 1.91 2.39 2.46

Oth ctrs. . 1.97* 1.81* 1.81 1.53 1.49

Total . . . . 9.60* 9.35* 9.55 11.18 10.83

• Exports of soya oil curbed in 2010 by rapidly increasing biodiesel production in Argentina and Brazil


Oct 2, 2010

E n d - S e p t e m b e r

1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1817 Oils & Fats: Stocks & Stocks/Usage

Stocks/Usage (%)

Stocks Mn T


Oct 2, 2010

World Production of Biodiesel ( Mn T )

18.9

15.9*

14.3*

9.5

7.1

0

4

8

12

16

20

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Biodiesel Output Set to Accelerate in 2010

• Sharp increase of 3.0 Mn T in Jan/Dec 2010

• Higher usage mandates come into force

• Soya, rape and palm

oils are the major

feedstocks (1st

generation)

• Will become difficult to

satisfy demand growth

for biofuels in 2011 and

in the years ahead

• Excess capacity 47 Mn


Oct 2, 2010

• World consumption of 17 oils/fats reached 164.8 Mn T in Jan/Dec 2009:

Of which:

• Food use 123.2 (75%)

• Biofuels (biodiesel & electricity) 16.5 (10%)

• Chemical 16.7 (10%)

• Other use 8.4 (5%)

Food use Other (animal feed, etc.)

Chemicals Energy (biofuels)

Jan/Dec 2009 total: 164.8 Mn T

17 Oils & Fats: World Consumption, by Category

8.4 Mn (5%)

123.2 Mn (75%)

16.5 Mn (10%)

16.7 Mn (10%)


Oct 2, 2010

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

Capacities (end of the year)

Production

EU - 27 : Biodiesel Production & Capacities

Mn T


Oct 2, 2010

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

0

2

4

6

8

10

Capacity (end of year)

Production (annual)

U.S. Biodiesel Capacity & Production

Mn T

In the USA biodiesel output to decline again in 2010 due to lack of tax credit

In Jan/Aug 2010 output at 4-year low of 0.8 Mn T against 1.1 Mn

Of which soya oil 0.4 Mn T vs. 0.5


Oct 2, 2010

ARGENTINA : Biodiesel Production, Exports & Consumption (1000 T)

January / December2011F 2010F 2009 2008 2007

Production . . . . 2500* 2000* 1180 720 180

Exports . . . . . . 1400* 1410* 1150 725 168

Consumption . . 1100* 590* 20 5 2

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

Capa cities (end of the year)

Production

ARGENTINA: Biodiesel Production & Capacities


Oct 2, 2010

Braz. Soya oil exports in Jan/July 2010:

Decline to 937 Thd T (vs 1075 a year ago)

and in Jan/Dec 2009: 1594 (vs. 2316) - -

- - due to interior biodiesel production

BRAZIL : Biodiesel Production ( 1000 T ) Jan /July J a n / D e c

Biodiesel 2010 2009 2009 2008 2007

Production . . 1160 709 1415 1030 360

Feedstock used

Soya oil. . . . 960 555 1097 830* 290*Tallow . . . . . 155 120 234 160* 50*

Cotton oil . . . 17 22 47 24* 10*Other oils . . 28 12 37 16* 10*

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

Capacities (end of the year)

Production

BRAZIL: Biodiesel Production & Capacities


Oct 2, 2010

ARGENTINA & BRAZIL : Increasing Biodiese lProduction and the Effects on Soya Oil (Mn T)

Soya oil January/Decemberproduction 2011F 2010F 2009 2008 2007Argentina . . . 7.50* 6.82* 5.77 6.02 6.96Brazil . . . . . 6.90* 6.70* 5.90 6.27 6.05Total . . . . . . 14.40* 13.52* 11.67 12.33 13.01

Biodiese l productionArgentina . . . 2.50* 2.00* 1.18 .72 .18Brazil . . . . . 2.30* 2.05* 1.41 1.03 .36Total . . . . . . 4.80* 4.05* 2.59 1.75 .54

Soya oil exportsArgentina . . . 5.00* 4.80* 4.56 5.07 6.50Brazil . . . . . 1.20* 1.60* 1.59 2.32 2.34Total . . . . . . 6.20* 6.40* 6.15 7.39 8.84


Oct 2, 2010

Dominance of Palm Oil - - usage boosted from 11.4 Mn in

90/91 to 49 Mn T

in 2010/11

Consumption of 17 oils & fats more than doubled in 20 years !

Soya oil market share at 24%, of rape at 13% 2010/11

Soya Oil 23.6%Palm Oil 27.9%

Rape Oil 12.9%

Sun Oil 6.9%

PKO&CNO 5.1%

Others/An.Fats 23.6%

2010/11 -- 176.6 Mn T

Soya Oil 19.6%

Palm Oil 13.9%

Rape Oil 10.7%

Sun Oil 10.3%

PKO&CNO 5.8%

Others/An.Fats 39.7%

1990/91 - - 81.2 Mn T

World Consumption of 17 Oils & Fats


Oct 2, 2010

Soybean 43.2%

Rape 13.5%

Cotton 14.1%

Oil Palm 5.6%Groundnut 9.1%

Coconut 4.0%

Sunflower 10.4%

Area 2010/11: 238.3 million ha

Soya Oil 28.9%

Rape Oil 15.8%

Cotton Oil 3.4%

Palm & Palmkernel Oils 38.3%

Groundnut Oil 2.9%

Coconut Oil 2.3%

Sun Oil 8.4%

Production 10/11: 143.3 million tonnes

7 OILSEEDS: World. Harvest. Area & Veg. Oil Output


Oct 2, 2010

3,8

4,5

0,53 0,51

1,31,6

Palm oil Soya oil Rape oil

0

1

2

3

4

5

Vegetable Oil Output per ha in 2008

Indonesia

Malaysia

U.S.A. Brazil

EU

T/ha

Germany

Source: ISTA Mielke GmbH, OIL WORLD

Palm oil yields per ha are much above soya and rape oils


Oct 2, 2010

3,400 Ha of UP’s advanced planting materials

yielded an average of 7.59 MT CPO/Ha in 2009


Oct 2, 2010

J a n u a r y / D e c e m b e r 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

2468

1012141618202224

Malaysia Indonesia

Palm Oil Production in Key Countries (Mn T)

Indonesia has become

the world largest

producer of palm oil

since 2006.

In Indonesia: Slowing

down of acreage

expansion in oil palms

since 2009, partly due

to protests of

environmental groups


Oct 2, 2010


92/93 94/95 96/97 98/99 00/01 02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11

-0,8-0,4

00,40,81,21,6

22,42,83,23,6

44,44,8

Annual Change (Mn T)

Palm Oil : World Production


Oct 2, 2010

Rising Dependence on Palmoil� Palm oil to account for

58% of world exports.

� World palm oil exports

38.6 Mn T in 2010/11,

up 230% since 1997/98

� Exports of soya, rape &

sun oils shrinking by

0.3 Mn T to only 16.7

Mn T in 2010/11

� Since 1997/98 exports

of all 17 oils & fats to

double to 66.7 Mn T in

Oct/Sept 2010/11

92/93 94/95 96/97 98/99 00/01 02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11

03

6

912

1518

2124

27

30

3336

39

So y, Ra pe, S un O ils

4 Anim al F ats

Pa lm O il

9 O ther

W orld Exports until 2009/10 in Mn T

17 Oils & Fats


Oct 2, 2010

Oilmeals


Oct 2, 2010

94/95 96/97 98/99 00/01 02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

12 Oilmeals: World Production (Mn T)

Other 11 oilmeals

Soyameal

Soybeans :

- - oil yield 18-19%

- - meal yield 79-80%

Insufficient supply of other oilseeds in 2010/11

requires above-average growth in soybeans

to satisfy veg oil demand,

but creates a surplus in meals


Oct 2, 2010

94/95 96/97 98/99 00/01 02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

12 Oilmeals: World Production (Mn T)

Other 11 oilmeals

Soyameal

World production of soya meal rising faster than for all other oilmeals.

Soya meal:

World output to increase by 14 Mn T to 177 Mn in 2010/11,

but consumption at best at 176 Mn T,

sizably raising world stocks of soya meal


Oct 2, 2010

E n d - S e p t e m b e r

1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 20113

4

5

6

7

8

9SOYA MEAL: Ending Stocks (Mn T)

Mn T


Oct 2, 2010

O c t o b e r / S e p t e m b e r94/95 96/97 98/99 00/01 02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

World

Argentina

& Dominance of Argentina (Mn T)

SOYA MEAL : World Exports


Oct 2, 2010

SOYA MEAL : World Exports ( Mn T )October / September

10/11F 09/10 08/09 07/08 95/96U.S.A. . . . . . . . 8.50* 10.08* 7.71 8.38 5.45Argentina. . . . . 28.65* 24.25* 24.21 26.80 8.20Brazil . . . . . . . . 12.90* 12.50* 12.93 12.04 12.14China . . . . . . . . 1.20* 1.28* 1.00 .59 .10India. . . . . . . . . 3.90* 2.67* 3.60 5.37 2.53Other countries 3.45* 3.22* 3.24 3.16 1.47Total . . . . . . . . 58.60* 54.00* 52.69 56.34 29.89


Oct 2, 2010

O c t o b e r / S e p t e m b e r98/99 00/01 02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11

-10-8-6-4-202468

101214

Year-On-Year Change (Mn T)

SOYA MEAL: World Disappearance

• World consumption of soya meal set to rise by 14 Mn T in 2010/11.

• Insufficient production of rape meal, fish meal and other oilmeals will raise the dependence on soya meal.


Oct 2, 2010

96/97 98/99 00/01 02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Rest of World

China

multi-year low 4.6 Mn T in 2010/11 vs. 6.8 Mn T in mid-nineties

Fish Meal Consumption (Mn T)

Reduced Global Fish Meal Supplies Raise Demand for Soya Meal

• China and other Asian countries hit hard by the global shortage of fish meal.

• This is raising demand for high-protein soya meal

• Fish meal prices (now at $ 1400 in Peru) to remain at larger than usual premiums over soya meal.


Oct 2, 2010

O c t o b e r / S e p t e m b e r96/97 98/99 00/01 02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11

20

30

40

50

60

70

EU-27 USA

China

12 OILMEALS: Usage in Key Countries (Mn T)


Oct 2, 2010

Rapidly Rising Chinese Consumption of Oilmeals

• China has doubled its consumption of oilmeals in the past 12 years.

• Most of the growth in aquaculture, poultry and pigs.


98/99 00/01 02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11

05

10152025303540455055606570

12 Meals

Soybean Meal

CHINA: Oilmeal UsageMn T


Oct 2, 2010

Concluding Statements


Oct 2, 2010

• World supplies ample, at least in Sep/Febr 2010/11

• Weather concern in South America

• World soya crush to be boosted by around 18 Mn T in 2010/11

• We expect pressure on soya meal prices

SOYBEANS : World Supply and Demand ( Mn T )10/11F 09/10 08/09 07/08 06/07

Opening stocks 68.28* 45.50* 59.57 71.45 59.32

Production 258.92* 260.64 211.34 220.46 237.59

N. Hemisphere 129.85* 125.00 114.74 104.79 121.44 U.S.A. . . . . . . . 94.79 91.42 80.75 72.86 87.00 S. Hemisphere 129.07* 135.64 96.60 115.67 116.15

Argentina. . . . . 52.00* 54.70* 31.50* 46.20 48.30 Brazil . . . . . . . . 65.50* 68.69 57.17 60.02 58.73

Total supply 327.20* 306.14 270.91 291.91 296.91

Crush (Sep/Aug). 224.00* 205.76* 196.11 203.10 196.11 Other use . . . . . . 32.40* 32.10* 29.30 29.24 29.35

Ending stocks 70.80* 68.28* 45.50 59.57 71.45 U.S.A. Aug 31 10.00* 4.30* 3.76 5.58 15.62

Stocks/usage 27.6% 28.7% 20.2% 25.6% 31.7%


Oct 2, 2010

From Oct 1997 until Sept 2010

'97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600with 10-year average Jan 1998 - Dec 2007 (in US-$/T)

Monthly Prices of Soya Meal, 48%, Brazil

Average 1998-2007: US-$ 220

Soya pellets, 48%, Brazil, cif Rott.

• Soya meal prices weaken relative oil.

• Uncertainties

• If S.American soybean output does not fall by more than 7 Mn T in early 2011,

• I expect soya meal prices to fall 10% from current levels


Oct 2, 2010

Monthly prices from Jan 1972 until Aug 201072 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10

0100200300400500600700800900

1000110012001300140015001600

Palm oil, crude cif Rott.

Soya oil, Dutch fob ex-mill

Soya Oil & Palm Oil: Monthly Prices (US-$/MT)� Edible oil

prices now trading at a higher plateau

� Volatility to remain high

� Strong demandgrowth from the food and the bioenergy sectors

� Palm oil prices to reach $ 1000 in Rotterdam


Oct 2, 2010

Daily prices from 1 Jan 2009 until 29 Sept 2010Jan09Mar May Jly Sep NovJan10MarApr Jun Sep

-150

0

150

300

450

600

750

900

1050

1200

-150

0

150

300

450

600

750

900

1050

1200

Daily Prices of Soya Oil & RBD Palm Olein (US-$/T)

Soya oil, Arg.fob

RBD palm olein, Mal.fob

Soya oil Premiums/discounts

• Many risks and uncertainties ahead on the supply and demand side.

• Covering policy of consumers

• With palm oil yields to recover, it is likely that soya oil price premiums widen versus palm oil in 2010/11


Oct 2, 2010

J u l y / J u n e

94/95 96/97 98/99 00/01 02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11F

150250350450550650750850950

105011501250135014501550

Soya oil, Dutch (US-$/MT)

Rape oil, Dutch (US-$/MT)

Sun oil, EU, fob. (US-$/MT)

Palm oil crude, cif Eur.

4 MAJOR OILS : Annual Average Prices� Soya oil prices

could reach US $ 1050 in Argentina and $ 1150 in EU

� Sun oil prices could reach or exceed $ 1200 in Argentina and at the Black Sea and $ 1300 in Europe

� RBD palm olein may approach US $ 1000 fob Mal


Oct 2, 2010

Thank Youfor Your Kind Attention !

[email protected]

If I can be of assistance to you in the future, you are invited to

contact me any time.

More details (by commodity and country) and background

information are given in the Oil World Monthly of Sept 17, 2010,

which can all be obtained from the Internet.


Oct 2, 2010

world oilseed outlook sep 10 - mielke

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