world energy outlook 2011€¦ · to drive global energy demand growth in primary energy demand...
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© OECD/IEA 2011
World Energy Outlook 2011
Maria van der Hoeven Executive Director
International Energy Agency
Dublin, 25 November 2011
© OECD/IEA 2011
The context: fresh challenges add to already worrying trends
Economic concerns have diverted attention from energy policy and limited the means of intervention
Post-Fukushima, nuclear is facing uncertainty
MENA turmoil raised questions about region’s investment plans
Some key trends are pointing in worrying directions:
CO2 emissions rebounded to a record high
energy efficiency of global economy worsened for 2nd straight year
spending on oil imports is near record highs
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Emerging economies continue to drive global energy demand
Growth in primary energy demand
Global energy demand increases by one-third from 2010 to 2035, with China & India accounting for 50% of the growth
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
4 000
4 500
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Mto
e
China
India
Other developing Asia
Russia
Middle East
Rest of world
OECD
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European Union’s primary energy demand by fuel in the New Policies Scenario
Primary energy demand levels off as of the second half of the 2010s, with natural gas becoming the largest energy source by 2035
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1 400
1 600
1 800
2 000
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2035
Mto
e
Other renewables
Biomass
Hydro
Nuclear
Gas
Coal
Oil
Energy demand in the European Union is set to remain below historical levels
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Natural gas & renewables become increasingly important
Renewables & natural gas collectively meet almost two-thirds of incremental energy demand in 2010-2035
Additional to 2035
2010
World primary energy demand
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
Oil Coal Gas Renewables Nuclear
Mto
e
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Oil demand is driven higher by soaring car ownership
Vehicles per 1000 people in selected markets
The passenger vehicle fleet doubles to 1.7 billion in 2035; most cars are sold outside the OECD by 2020, making non-OECD policies key to global oil demand
2010
2035
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
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800
United States European Union
China India Middle East
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Net imports of oil
US oil imports drop due to rising domestic output & improved transport efficiency: EU imports overtake those of the US around 2015; China becomes the largest importer around 2020
Changing oil import needs are set to shift concerns about oil security
0
2
4
6
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12
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China India European Union
United States
Japan
mb
/d
2000
2010
2035
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Coal won the energy race in the first decade of the 21st century
Growth in global energy demand, 2000-2010
Coal accounted for nearly half of the increase in global energy use over the past decade, with the bulk of the growth coming from the power sector in emerging economies
Nuclear
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1 400
1 600
Coal
Mto
e
Total non-coal
Natural gas
Oil
Renewables
© OECD/IEA 2011
Asia: the arena of future coal trade
International coal markets & prices become increasingly sensitive to developments in Asia; India surpasses China as the biggest coal importer soon after 2020
Share of global hard coal trade
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
2009 2020 2035
India
China
Japan
European Union
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Second thoughts on nuclear would have far-reaching consequences
“Low Nuclear Case” examines impact of nuclear component of future energy supply being cut in half
Gives a boost to renewables, but increases import bills, reduces diversity & makes it harder to combat climate change
By 2035, compared with the New Policies Scenario:
coal demand increases by twice Australia’s steam coal exports
natural gas demand increases by two-thirds Russia’s natural gas net exports
power- sector CO2 emissions increase by 6.2%
Biggest implications are for countries with limited energy resources that planned to rely on nuclear power
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Golden prospects for natural gas
Largest natural gas producers in 2035
Unconventional natural gas supplies 40% of the 1.7 tcm increase in global supply, but best practices are essential to successfully address environmental challenges
0 200 400 600 800 1 000
Norway
India
Australia
Algeria
Canada
Qatar
Iran
China
United States
Russia
bcm
Conventional
Unconventional
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Diversity of Russian export markets brings diversity of revenue
Russian revenue from fossil fuel exports
An increasing share of Russian exports go eastwards to Asia, providing Russia with diversity of markets and revenues
2010 $255 billion
61% 16%
21%
2035 $420 billion
48%
European Union
17%
Other
20% China
15%
Other Europe
European Union Other
Europe
China 2%
Other
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EU moving towards cleaner forms of electricity generation
Wind spearheads the low-carbon contribution to the EU electricity sector: the share of generation from low-carbon technologies rises to two-thirds in 2035
Electricity generation from low-carbon sources in the European Union
Additional to 2035
2009
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
Nuclear Hydro Wind Biomass Solar PV
Other CCS
TWh
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Low carbon
Shar
e o
f el
ectr
icit
y ge
ner
atio
n
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The value of EU subsidies to renewables is set to peak in the 2020s
The decline after 2025 is due to increased fuel and carbon prices, the growing competitiveness of wind power and a combination of market saturation and declining costs for solar PV
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10
20
30
40
50
60
2007 2008 2009 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Bill
ion
do
llars
(2
01
0)
Biofuels
Electricity
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Energy is at the heart of the climate challenge
By 2035, cumulative CO2 emissions from today exceed three-quarters of the total since 1900, and China’s per-capita emissions match the OECD average
European Union
0
100
200
300
400
500
United States China India Japan
Gig
ato
nn
es
2010-2035
1900-2009
Cumulative energy-related CO2 emissions in selected regions
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0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2010 2020 2025 2030 2035
Delay until 2017
Delay until 2015
2015
Emissions from existing infrastructure
The door to 2°C is closing, but will we be “locked-in” ?
Without further action, by 2017 all CO2 emissions permitted in the 450 Scenario will be “locked-in” by existing power plants, factories, buildings, etc
45
6°C trajectory
2°C trajectory
CO
2 e
mis
sio
ns
(gig
gato
nn
es)
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Efficiency gains can contribute most to EU emissions reductions
Energy efficiency measures – driven by strong policy action across all sectors – account for 50% of the cumulative CO2 abatement over the Outlook period
European Union energy-related CO2 emissions abatement in the 450 Scenario relative to the New Policies Scenario
Abatement
2020 2035
Efficiency 68% 48%
Renewables 25% 21%
Biofuels 2% 6%
Nuclear 1% 11%
CCS 3% 14%
Total (Mt CO2) 269 1032
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Gt
New Policies Scenario
450 Scenario
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Implications for the EU
In a world full of uncertainty, one thing is sure: rising incomes & population will push energy needs higher
EU is already the largest importer of natural gas; a competitive, integrated market remains the best bet for gas security.
EU becomes the largest oil importer around 2015 (until overtaken by China in the 2020), a shift with clear geopolitical implications
Power sector investment will become increasingly capital intensive with the rising share of renewables
Steps in the right direction, but the door to 2oC is closing