DOCUMENT OF THE WORLD BANK

FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY

REPUBLIC OF YEMEN

PROJECT PAPER

ON A PROPOSED RESTRUCTURING

OF THE

BASIC EDUCATION DEVELOPMENT PROJECT (P076185)

November 16,2009

HUMAN DEVELOPMENT SECTOR MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance o f their official duties. I t s contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization

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STRUCTURE OF THE PROJECT PAPER

I Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 4 I1 Backround and Reasons for Restructuring ...................................................................... 4 I11 Proposed Changes .......................................................................................................... 7 IV Analysis ....................................................................................................................... 12 V Expected Outcomes ....................................................................................................... 12 V I Benefits and Risks ....................................................................................................... 13 Annex A: BEDP Indicators ............................................................................................... 11 Annex B: Revisions to BEDP Indicators and End o f Project Targets .............................. 24 Annex C: End o f project Plan ........................................................................................... 37 Annex D: Procurement Plan ............................................................................................. 50

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DATA SHEET

Date: 09/12/2009 Country: Republic of Yemen Project Name: Basic Education Development Project Project ID: PO76185 Borrower: Republic of Yemen

-

Task Team Leader: Ayesha Vawda Sector Manager/Director: Mourad Ezzine/Steen Lau Jorgensen Country Director: Emmanuel Mbi Environmental Category: B __=

Responsible Agency: Ministry of Education Revised estimated disbursements (Bank FY/US% m)

FY FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FYlO F Y l l FY12 FY13

Annual - 0.10 2.30 9.00 15.60 22.90 12.70 5.00 1 .oo 0.06

Cumulative - 0.10 2.40 11.40 27.00 49.90 62.60 67.60 68.60 68.66

Current Closing Date: 06/30/2010 Revised Closing Date: 06/30/2012 Indicate if the restructuring is:

Board Approved - X RVP Approved -

- Yes Z N o - Yes - No

Yes X No

Does the restructuring project require any exceptions to Bank policies? Have these been approved by Bank management?

Revised project development objective/outcomes I s approval for any policy exception sought from the Board? -

The revised Project Development Objective i s to: (i) increase enrollment o f children in basic education, with particular attention to gender equity, in ten (10) governorates; (ii) improve quality o f teaching in basic education nationally, and (iii) establish foundations for improved M o E capacity to carry out i t s core functions, so as to contribute to the goals o f the national basic education development strategy (NBEDS) of the Borrower. Does the restructured project trigger any new safeguard policies? No.

IBRD/IDA

The total estimated cost in US$ for IDA is based on the current SDWUS$ exchange rate o f SDRl = US$1.55 (June 30,2009). KfW financing o f Euro 16.3 mi l l ion (equivalent to US$23.16 mi l l ion as o f June 30,2009) became available to the project in 2008. Hence the total project financing i s estimated at US$148.95 mi l l ion (instead o f US$121.14 mi l l ion as at the t ime o f negotiation in 2004).

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Project Paper Republic o f Yemen

Basic Education Development Project (PO76185

I. Introduction

1. Th is Project Paper seeks the approval o f the Executive Directors to introduce the following changes in the Yemen Basic Education Development Project (Credit No. 3988; Project ID: P076185) and any accompanying amendments to the project’s legal documents (the IDA Development Credit Agreement and the Multi-Donor Trust Fund Grant Agreement administered by the IDA).

2. The proposed changes wil l align the Project Development Objective (PDO) with the outcomes that can be expected from this project, rather than from the National Basic Education Development Strategy (NBEDS) o f the Government o f Yemen (GOY), and w i l l articulate a results framework for the project that includes relevant and measurable outcome and intermediate outcome indicators and targets. The project w i l l also build the capacity o f the M o E to monitor and evaluate innovations that are being piloted under the project, accommodate the GOY’S request for a closing date extension from June 30,2010 to June 30,2012, and reallocate Credit and Multi-Donor Trust Fund Grant funds between disbursement categories.

11. Background and Reasons for Restructuring

3. The Basic Education Development Project (BEDP) was approved in September 2004 and became effective in March 2005. At the time o f appraisal, external financing was available f r o m I D A , the Government o f the Netherlands and the Government o f the United Kingdom through i t s Department for International Development (DFID). IDA was selected to administer the Multi-Donor Trust Fund (MDTF) Grant including the funds from the Governments o f the Netherlands and the United Kingdom.

4. The original Project Development Objective was: to assist the government in expanding the provision o f qualitv basic education for all. wi th particular attention given to gender equitv. The project was to pay special attention to: (a) increasing the enrolment and retention o f girls and (b) promoting equity at a l l levels o f the basic education system by ensuring the inclusion o f a l l children in the education system, especially those with special needs. I t was initially envisioned that the project would target impoverished districts in al l governorates, beginning with 10 Governorates that were not covered by on-going projects. The original project components were:

Component 1 : Expansion o f Access (US$54.96 million) involves constructing, rehabilitating, furnishing and equipping new and existing classrooms, improving mechanisms for routine maintenance o f existing schools, and supporting actions to encourage more girls and children with specific needs to enroll and remain in basic education.

Component 2: Quality Improvement (US$35.67 mil l ion) involves curriculum review and textbooks, teacher training, qualification and deployment, and inspection and supervision.

Component 3: Institutional Change and Capacity Bui ld ing o f the M o E (US$14.75 m illion) involves institutional change, community participation and literacy, and project management, monitoring and evaluation.

5. In 2006, the KfW signed an agreement wi th the GOY t o support the BEDP through parallel fmancing o f Euro 16.3 mi l l ion (equivalent to US$ 23.16 mi l l ion as o f exchange rate o f June 30, 2009). A long debate ensued, during which the Ministry o f Planning and International Cooperation (MoPIC) wanted to change the implementation arrangement for the c iv i l works by contracting them out to the Project Management Unit o f the Public Works Project, on the basis o f a successful experience in the health sector. It was finally agreed that no changes w i l l be made to the implementation arrangement for c iv i l works under the BEDP (Le., the M o E wil l be managing al l c iv i l works contracts). As a result o f this discussion, the KfW funds became accessible to the project only in mid 2008, although they had been used in the planning process (particularly as regards setting targets for c iv i l works indicators) since 2006.

6. Since effectiveness in March 2005, the project overcame init ial delays and has moved steadily in implementation; the most recent ISR rated progress toward achievement o f i t s PDO and Implementation

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Progress as MS. The project has built 143 new schools, constructed 944 new classrooms (through new school construction and extension), rehabilitated 1,003 classrooms and trained nearly 90,000 teachers and 16,000 headmasters and deputy head masters. I t has also introduced three innovative pi lot programs: (a) a Conditional Cash Transfer (CCT) program, which was f i rs t launched as a pi lot in Lahej governorate in 2007 and extended to Hodeida governorate in 2008 in which over 30,000 girls have received a CCT, (b) a Female Teacher Contract Program started in October in 2007 in 4 governorates w i th over 500 female teachers hired by local school committees, and (c) a Whole School Improvement Program, which was developed in 2008. Monthly disbursements in 2009 are averaging US$3.3 million, compared with US$2.4 mi l l ion in 2008, and cumulative disbursements have reached 52 percent o f the total allocation. Fifty three percent o f the Credit, sixty three percent o f the MDTF Grant and twenty four percent o f the KfW Grant have been disbursed as o f June 30, 2009. Given init ial agreements between the Development Partners (DPs) and IDA, Grant funds were spent before the IDA Credit in the f i rs t few years o f the project, with only marginal spending from the Credit. In recent years, Grant and Credit spending has been more balanced.

7. The Development Credit Agreement (DCA) has been amended three times during the course o f implementation. The f i rs t amendment was made in June 2007 to enable the project to be part o f a Bank- wide eDisbursement pilot. The second amendment was made in September 2007 to support the delivery o f Conditional Cash Transfers (CCTs) to retain girls f rom grades 1-9, to enable the contracting o f female teachers in rural schools and also to set up 90 Day Advance accounts. The third amendment was made in November 2008 to enable financing o f the Whole School Improvement Program grants to schools.

8. reflect additional contributions received from the MDTF donors.

The Multi Donor Trust Fund (MDTF) Grant Agreement was amended in September 2005 to

9. Data collection, verification and reporting are new to Yemen, and extremely weak, which makes any work on the indicators and the results framework susceptible to the overall data constraints, despite al l efforts to get it right. Yemen conducted i t s f i rs t ever educational survey in 1998 through the IDA- supported Basic Education Expansion Project (BEEP). The 1998 survey was a Comprehensive School Survey (CSS), to be repeated every five years. From 1999 to 2004, the M o E conducted Annual Education Surveys (AES) using a less costly methodology than the CSS. In 2005, the CSS was repeated. However, since 2006, two additional data collection methodologies have been attempted, wi th inconsistent results (see Annex B Section I11 for a comparison o f the data collection methodologies). Credible projections f rom the 2004 population census data are also not available, limiting the availability o f population-based measures such as Net Enrollment Rates or Gross Enrollment Rates (Annex B Section IV).

10. T h e BEDP PDO baselines and targets were developed by using the results o f the earliest educational surveys in the country and it i s now clear that the BEDP projections were made o n the basis o f inconsistent and possibly inaccurate data. Moreover, as Yemen is gaining more experience in undertaking data collection, and experimenting with new methodologies, additional complexities are emerging which make trend analysis extremely limited. An issue o f potential data inflation became apparent when the result o f the second CSS (Le., for school year 2005/06) became available in 2007. In order to ascertain the level o f confidence in the data from the academic years 2004/05 to 2007/08, the M o E i s going to undertake a quality control survey. And, starting from the school year 2009/10, al l data collection by the M o E wil l be complemented w i th a quality control survey.

1 1. The principal causes that have led to the restructuring o f the project include:

a. Since the BEDP became effective in March 2005, the monitoring framework of the project was modified twice to accommodate a variety of changes. These changes were made in 2006 and again in 2008 (at the Mid Term Review). The changes that were made to the results framework between 2005 and early 2009, as well as the reasons for the changes are detailed in Annex B. The causes for these modifications are many. First, the M o E finalized a Medium Term Results Framework (MTRF) for basic and secondary education in late 2006. The end date o f the MTRF was the same as the BEDP project (2010). Because the results o f the BEDP were those o f the entire education sector, the project had to revise i ts targets in 2006 so that they were identical to the MTRF target values.

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Second, a closer look at the indicators and results revealed that the results could be better measured through alternate indicators, which led to the dropping o f some “superfluous” indicators. Third, the cost estimate used to determine the project target at the time o f negotiations was based on a six classroom school model. The BEDP developed comprehensive basic schools accommodating grades 1-9, with laboratories and resource rooms. Then in the first couple o f year o f implementation, the cost o f construction almost doubled as a result o f significant international increases in the prices o f cement and steel and the drastic elimination o f diesel subsidies in Yemen. Thus, construction targets were reduced. Fourth, when the KfW joined the BEDP in 2006, the targets were adjusted to account for the additional funding available (although c iv i l works targets were more or less offset by the large increases in construction costs). Fifth, when the results o f the 2005 Comprehensive School Survey (CSS, conducted every five.years) were released in 2007, it became apparent that the baselines used to calculate BEDP indicators were inflated, and therefore the targets set for achievement were inflated. These changes were formalized through agreements reached during supervision missions and no formal restructuring o f the project has been undertaken.

b. The World Bank’s February 2009 Quality Assessment of the Lending Portfolio (QALP) review noted that the project’s original PDO and key performance indicators were overly ambitious and monitored the sector as a whole and suggested that these be revised to capture the results of the project more closely. The QALP review noted that project outcome indicators should reflect the project, even when the project i s providing broad support to the sector, as in the case o f BEDP, and indicators should be able to measure change over the lifetime o f the project. With respect to “access” the key performance indicators are the national Gross Enrollment Rate (GER) and the national Gross Intake Rate. Since project activities related to increasing access are targeted to under- served districts in 10 governorates only, both baseline and target figures need to reflect the project’s actual geographical coverage. Indicators related to “quality” and “capacity building” can be national, as the project’s activities in these areas are national. However, these indicators suffer from other shortcomings (see Annex B for details)

c. Review of the PDO, in line with the QALP recommendation highlighted the need for articulation of a clear Results Framework for the project in line with the revised PDO. Th is also led to the need to identify an improved set o f outcome and intermediate outcome indicators, incorporating the more reliable sectoral data that became available post appraisal. Indicators for progress in building M o E capacity are inappropriate and have not captured the achievements o f BEDP. The existing indicators for “building capacity” are: (a) the student-teacher ratio in publicly-financed basic education schools and (b) the share o f total recurrent spending for basic education o n items other than teacher remuneration. The QALP did not view these as suitable measures for capturing enhanced capacity and recommended that progress in institutional components be measured more appropriately. The M o E has made significant progress in the planning o f M o E activities, producing Annual Work Plans (AWPs), and implementing pol icy reforms; new indicators are needed that capture these achievements. Although the vague language o f the PDO indicated, contrary to the project design, that the project would impact student learning achievements, it i s s t i l l not possible to measure learning outcomes in Yemen. And, since the project was designed to improve the quality o f education services, through impacting the learning environment through in-service teacher training and other interventions, a better indicator measuring this impact needed to be identified.

d. The GOY i s requesting an extension o f the credit closing date, given its delay in init ial implementation and the additional fmancing that the project has received from the KfW in 2008. GOY i s requesting an extension o f i t s current closing date, June 30, 2010, t o June 30, 2012. Failure to extend the project closing date can seriously jeopardize the reform process that has been launched, nurtured and strengthened through the BEDP. The needs o f basic education remain significant and the Development Partners (DPs) are committed to continue their support to basic education in consultation wi th the MoE. Extension o f the project wil l also enable achieving the objectives o f the BEDP, to support the complex and dif f icult reform in the immediate future in a priori ty sector for the government, to set the foundation for the new reforms in secondary education, and also to fully utilize the multi-donor resources that have been made available for the education sector in Yemen. Strong consensus in favor o f this extension request was noted during the Wor ld Bank Country Assistance

Page 6 o f 51

Strategy discussions, which underscored the need to extend and provide additional financing to existing performing operations. A detailed justification for the extension i s provided in paragraph 17. Activities that were to be carried out prior to the original closing date w i l l now be completed in the new time-frame (see Annex C for the End o f Project Plan).

111. Proposed Changes

12. In light o f the difficulties in measuring the PDOs, the DPs and the M o E have agreed that the PDOs o f the BEDP were not well-aligned with the project and need to be readjusted to capture the impact o f the project impact. In May, 2009, a formal multi-donor restructuring mission met with representatives o f the M o E appointed by the Minister o f Education to develop a new Results Framework for the project. Representatives f rom the DPs for BEDP (World Bank/IDA, DFID, KfW, and the Royal Netherlands Embassy) and the M o E (Statistics and Planning, Projects Design and Implementation, School Mapping, Inspection, Teacher Affairs, Planning, Training and Basic Education) worked for one week to revise the indicators for Components 1 and 2 o f the project and to develop completely new indicators for Component 3, based on the recommendations o f the QALP. A new Results Framework was developed to capture the BEDP more accurately and priority activities were selected to match the Results Framework. Th is has led to minor modifications in sub-components and changes in the costs allocated to components (Table l), including reallocation o f the Credit and MDTF Grant proceeds.

13.

a.

b.

C.

d.

e. f.,

14.

Six main changes are being proposed to the project:

Revisions o f the PDO to better reflect the outcomes that can be expected from the BEDP’s short- term duration, as opposed to the comprehensive and long-term objectives o f the National Basic Education Development Strategy (NBEDS) o f the Government o f Yemen (GOY); to clarify that the access interventions o f Component 1 target 10 specific governorates and not the entire country, and to better define the improvements that are expected in the quality o f education service provision (specifically the learning environment in schools) (Annex A); Revisions in outcome and intermediate outcome indicators to align them with the new PDO, including newly developed indicators to measure improved M o E capacity (Annex A). Actual project outputs are not anticipated to change, although improved measures o f these outputs are proposed; Formalization o f modifications made earlier to the project outcome targets, as far as they are s t i l l val id under the revised PDO (detailed in Annex B); Alignment o f project activities to match the newly-developed Results Framework (Table 2 and Annex C); Project extension from its original closing date o f June 30,2010 to June 30,2012, and Reallocation o f the Credit proceeds and Grant proceeds (Tables 3 and 4).

T h e Ministry o f Education (MoE) developed the BEDP as a comprehensive project, financed joint ly with four Development Partners (DPs) to support implementation o f its National Basic Education Development Strategy (NBEDS). The revised Proiect Development Obiective i s to: (1) increase enrollment o f children in basic education, with particular attention to gender equity, in 10 governorates; (2) improve quality o f teaching in basic education nationally, and (3) establish foundations for improved M o E capacity to carry out i ts core functions, so as to contribute to the NBEDS goals.

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Table 1: Revised Project Development Objective and Component Cost

Project Development Objective (PDO)

Component 1

Component 2

Component 3

Note: Costs anc

Original Project

To assist the government in expanding the provision of quality basic education for all, with particular attention given to gender equity.

Expansion o f Access (US$54.96 million) involves constructing, rehabilitating, furnishing and equipping new and existing classrooms, improving mechanisms for routine maintenance o f existing schools, and supporting actions to encourage more girls and children with specific needs to enroll and remain in basic education. Quality Improvement (US$35.67 million) involves curriculum review and textbooks, teacher training, qualification and deployment, and inspection and supervision. Institutional Change and Capacity Building of the MoE (US$14.75 million) involves institutional change, community participation and literacy, and project

Restructured Project

The Project Development Objective i s to: (i) increase enrollment of children in basic education, with particular attention to gender equity, in ten (10) governorates; (ii) improve quality o f teaching in basic education nationally, and (iii) establish foundations for improved MoE capacity to cany out its core functions, so as to contribute to the goals o f the national basic education development strategy (NBEDS) of the Borrower.

Expansion of Access (US$84.23 million) involves constructing, rehabilitating, furnishing and equipping new and existing classrooms, improving mechanisms for routine maintenance of existing schools, and supporting actions to encourage more girls and children with specific needs to enroll and remain in basic education.

Quality Improvement (US$50.78 million) involves learning resources, teacher training, qualification and deployment, and inspection and supervision.

Institutional Change and Capacity Building of the MoE (US$13.94 million) involves institutional change, community participation and literacy, and project management, monitoring and evaluation.

management, monitoring and evaluation.

and do not include contingencies.

15. Activities to be financed under uroiect comuonents have been modified as a result o f matching the End o f Project Plan (Annex C) activities with the PDO and the outcome and the intermediate outcome indicators. Changes to project activities are summarized in Table 2. The activity (and sub-component) on the merger and review o f textbooks has been dropped from the BEDP because: (i) the project failed to hire adequate TA to undertake this consultancy and (ii) the GTZ has already undertaken a diagnostic o f the errors in textbooks and has committed to supporting the M o E to undertake a review and revision o f the textbooks for grades 1-12. The project amendments introduced some important innovations, including a Conditional Cash Transfer (CCT) pilot, a Female Teacher Contracting Program, a Whole School Improvement Program. The scope o f the CCT pi lot has been expended to another governorate. The restructured project w i l l also undertake independent empirical evaluation o f specific interventions undertaken by the M o E and supported by the BEDP to provide evidence o f progress, including: (i) teacher training and associated interventions; (ii) Whole School Improvement Program; (iii) Female Teacher Contracting Program, (iv) Conditional Cash Transfer for girls, and (iv) Mothers’ and Fathers’ Councils (see Table 2).

16. The above-mentioned modifications, plus the need to take into account recurrent expenditures for the two additional years under project, imply changes to the component costs (Table 2) and the disbursement categories for both the Credit and the MDTF Grant (Tables 3 and 4). Recurrent expenditures would include training, inspection visits, CCT, female teacher contracts, operating expenditures, etc.. T h i s wil l also have an impact on the procurement arrangements; Annex D details the procurement plan for the extended period o f 2010-2012.

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Component

Extend, rehabilitate and maintain existing schools Develop and implement basic education access programs for girls and children with special needs

2. Quality Improvement

Activity Added or dropped

I N o activity added or dropped

Review the curriculum and textbooks Teacher training, qualification and deployment Support school supervision

N o activity dropped; Grants to increase female access (Conditional Cash Transfers for girls) added in September 2007. Scope expanded to a second governorate in 2008.

N o activity added; Activity dropped during June 2009-Restructuring mission N o activity dropped Female teacher contracting Program added in 2007. No activity added or dropped

Proposed Reallocation

o f Credit (Sept 2009)

Community participation and literac

monitoring and evaluation

M o s t recent Original ?LO o f Expenditures to be amendment o f Amount o f the Financed

Credit Credit Allocated (November (Oct 2004)

Category

16,500,000 2,512,000

No activity dropped; Whole School Improvement Program added in 2008. No activity dropped; Formal evaluation studies of national program for teacher in-service training and mothers’ and fathers’ councils and of pilot programs: Whole School Improvement, female teacher contracting, conditional cash transfers (all except CCT evaluation introduced in June 2009-Restructuring mission).

2008) 16,500,000 16,500,000 90% 4,900,000 4,900,000 100% of foreign expenditures,

100% of local expenditures (ex- factory cost) and 85% of local expenditures for other items

942,000

3,434,000

27,000

14,842,000 1,103,000

+ 3.Consultants’services:

527,000 100%

4,120,000

80,000

90% for consulting f i rms and 87% for individual consultants 90% for consulting f i rms and 87% for individual consultants

14,500,000 14,500,000 100% 1,200,000 1,200,000 90%

(a) Under Part B.2 o f the project (b) Under other parts o f the Project (c) Audit

4. Training 5. Incremental Operating Costs 6.Education Grants

(a) CCT (b) WSI

7. Travel Costs for Inspection Field Visits

4,323,000 65,000

552,000

8. Unallocated 1-

1,200,000 100% 61,370 100%

90%

0 44,300,000

I procured locally 4,200,000

1,211,630 3,000,000 44,300,000 44,300,000

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Table 4: MDTF Grant N o MTF053721 Disbursement Category Reallocations (US$)

Category

1. Works 2. Goods

Proposed Most recent Original Reallocation of Amendment of Amount of the

Grant (Sept. Grant Grant 2009) (Sept.2005) Allocation

(April 2005) 16,998,958 17,000,000 8,000,000 6,103,897 6,000,000 2,800,000

3.Consultants'services

(a) Under Part B.2 of the project (b) Under other parts I 2,257,790 I

5,700,000 2,200,000

0

o f the Project (c) Audit

4. Trainin 18,476,944 15,900,000 7,780,000 5. Incremental 1,035,439 1,300,000

7. Travel Costs for 2,025,000

4,118

8. Unallocated 0 1,102,146 1,028,338 TOTAL I 47,102,146 I 47,102,146 I 22,428,338

YO of Expenditures to be Financed

90% 100% of foreign expenditures, 100% of local expenditures (ex- factory cost) and 85% o f local expenditures for other items procured locally 90% for consulting f i r m s and 87% for individual consultants 100%

90% for consulting f i r m s and 87% for individual consultants 90% for consulting f i r m s and 87% for individual consultants 100% 90%

100% 90%

17. The GOY'S request for a two year extension i s stronglv supported by al l DPs and was also recommended by the OALP review. The reasons are as follows. First, the project suffered significant delays in the implementation o f c iv i l works during the f i rs t year and a ha l f o f implementation, w i th development o f standardized school designs taking longer than anticipated. With the significant increase in the prices o f cement and steel globally and the drastic elimination o f diesel subsidies in Yemen, construction costs almost doubled, requiring a re-advertising and in some cases a re-tendering o f the majority o f the c iv i l works contracts in 2005 and 2006. Further, because the project aimed to undertake most c iv i l works procurement at the governorate level, ini t ial time estimates did not take into account the objective o f capacity building, which turned out to be a significant initiative. A s a result, about 80 percent o f the c iv i l works were delayed for more than 18 months while about 20 percent were delayed for about a year. Rehabilitation was delayed by 4-5 months on average. Second, while the KfW financing was committed in 2006, due to on-going dialogue on the implementation arrangements, the grant funds were not accessible for contracting until mid-2008. W h i l e most o f the delays have been overcome, significant activities remain to be completed by late 201 l/early 2012. All on-going c iv i l works w i l l be completed by February 201 1, and furniture and schools seats in these classrooms are expected to be procured and made available by M a y 2012. Part I11 training o f teachers i s expected to be completed by December 2010, while Part I1 training o f Inspectors is expected to be completed by October 2010. The on-going E M I S TA i s expected to be completed by July 2010, and equipping o f the M o E on the basis o f the needs identified and developed through th is TA i s expected to be completed by M a y 20 1 1.

18. N o changes are being proposed to the implementation arrangements, disbursement, financial management arrangements a nd financing mechanism o f the project. F'r ocurement for the restructured project w i l l be carried out in accordance with the World Bank's "Guidelines: Procurement under IBRD Loans and IDA Credits" dated M a y 2004, revised October 2006 and "Guidelines: Selection and Employment o f Consultants by World Bank Borrowers" dated M a y 2004, revised October 2006.

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IV. Analysis

19. The changes being made in the restructuring entail realigning the indicators to meet the new PDO, wi th some changes to the implementation schedule o f activities and re-prioritization o f activities to ensure delivery o f the results which have been agreed. The proposed changes have n o major effect on the original economic, financial, technical, institutional or social aspects o f the project as appraised.

20. T h e proposed changes do not raise the environment category o f the project or trigger new safeguard policies. During project design the M o E prepared an Environmental Management Plan in which no major environmental impacts were anticipated and therefore the Project was rated as category “B’. There are n o changes to the scope o f the project, especially the component dealing wi th c iv i l works, and most o f the contracts for new construction, rehabilitation and extension o f schools have been completed. There are n o issues relating to involuntary resettlement nor have there been concerns relating to acquisition o f land for c iv i l works, the involuntary resettlement pol icy (OP 4.12) has not been triggered. The restructuring i s not changing the environmental category, and the EMP w i l l continue to be implemented by including it in the contractors’ bidding documents. Given the very l imited construction o f new schools remaining, and the fact that any land required w i l l be obtained through voluntary community donations, a Resettlement Pol icy Framework (RPF) i s not required. The M o E has been cautioned about the importance o f preparing detailed documentation in the cases involving land donation to be able to document that the affected local community members are in fact supporting project interventions and that they are adequately compensated

21. The restructuring does not involve any exceptions to Bank policies.

V. Expected Outcomes

22. The PDO has been revised to take into account the original objectives o f the BEDP while acknowledging the targeted scope o f project activities for improving access to basic education. T h e new Results Framework for the BEDP is presented in Table 5 below. N e w outcome and intermediate outcome indicators and targets are presented in Annex A

Table 5: BEDP Result Framework

REVISED PDO The revised Project Development Objective i s to: (1) increase enrollment of children in basic education, with particular attention to gender equity, in 10 governorates; (2) improve quality o f teaching in basic education nationally, and (3) establish foundations for improved MoE capacity to carry out its core functions, so as to contribute to the NBEDS goals.

REVISED OUT Rs Increase in absolute numbers o f girls and boys enrolled in Grades 1-9 in 10 project governorates (target: girls’ enrolment increases from 783,454 to 924.788; boys’ enrolment remains high at 1.1 million) Gender Parity Index (GPI) for Grades 1-9 increases (target: GPI increases from .70 to .80) Increase in share o f students who are attending schools where most (76- 100%) o f the teachers have received professional development to improve their teaching skills in Math and Science (target: increase from 5% of Grade 4 students to l5’Yo) Average transition rate in Grades 1- 6 improves (target: female transition rate increases from .59 to .63; male transition rate increases from .69 to .71) MoE develops, approves and implements policies based on NBEDS Increased number o f civil works projects procured by the Governorate Education Offices (GEOs) in 10 governorates using agreed project financial management and procurement guidelines (target: 522)

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Component 1: Expansion o f Access

1.1 Construction and Rehabilitation o f Classrooms 1.2 Expanding Girls and Out of School Children’s Enrollment

Component 2:Quality Improvement

2.1 Learning Resources 2.2 Teacher Training, Qualification and Deployment 2.3 Inspection/Supervision

Number of new schools that have been constructed in 10 project governorates (target: 213 schools) Number of new classrooms that have been constructed in 10 governorates (target: 1996 classrooms) Number o f classrooms that have been rehabilitated in 10 governorates (target: 1446 classrooms) Number of girls in Grades 4-9 benefitting from CCT program for girls in 2 target governorates (target 30,000 girls receiving CCTs annually)

0

Number of teachers in Grades 1-9 trained in three 2-week short courses (target: 90,000 teachers trained in Parts I and 11, and about 56,000 teachers trained in Part 111) Number o f headmasters and deputy headmasters who are trained in three 2-week short courses (target: 15,000 trained in all three parts) Number o f inspectors o f basic schools who are trained in three 2-week short courses (target: 4,500 trained in all three

Number o f basic schools that receive 3 or more inspections visits a year (target 10,000 schools) Female teachers trained, contracted certified and officially employed by the Civil Service in designated governorates Percent o f Grade 1-3 classroom teachers and Grade 4-9 math, science and Arabic language teachers in all governorates that apply in their classrooms what they have learned from training and on-site support by MoE and its GEOs (target

Parts)

750/0)

Component 3: Supporting Institutional Change and Building the Capacity o f the MoE

3.1 3.2 3.3. and

Institutional Change Community Participation and Literacy Project Management and Monitoring

Evaluation

Modernization Task Force policy documents and organogram approved Job descriptions and profiles for administrative positions completed MoE staff trained in core ski l ls (target: 1200 trained per year) Independent, empirical evaluations of key national and pilot interventions completed (target: evaluations of the national Teacher Training program and the Mothers and Fathers Councils and the following pilot programs--ET, Female Teacher Contracting, Whole School Improvement,)

TIMSS 201 1 data gathered and submitted for international verification Quality control of the Comprehensive School Survey (CSS) completed Number o f procurement and financial management staff trained nationally

EMIS i s established

Page 12 of 51

VI. Benefits and Risks

23. T h e project benefits have not changed. The project i s expected to continue to support the achievement o f the objectives o f the NBEDS o f enhanced access, improved quality o f education service delivery and enhanced sector-wide capacity to manage and implement and monitor reforms.

24. T h e main risks o f the project have not changed substantially since it was appraised and remain relatively high due to ongoing security concerns, modest implementation capacity, and the Bank’s lack o f ability to visit project sites outside o f Sana’a. Table 6 below summarizes the r isks to the project and possible mitigation measures to reduce the risks.

Table 6: Summary of existing project risks and proposed mitigation measures

Risk

Risks to development outcomes

Yemen undertook its f irst ever educational survey (Comprehensive School Survey - CSS) in 1998, and the reliability of i ts educational data remains severely challenged. At least three data collection methodologies have been employed, but do not appear to be comparable, which limits trend analysis.

~

High turnover of trained staff and key gaps in PAU staff.

Sites are not selected according to criteria approved by the MoE

Operational risks

Resistance within MoE to support the restructuring process within the framework of the Civil Service Modernization Project (CSMP).

Resistance within and lack o f capacity o f the MoE to support the technical assistance program.

Difficulty in identifying the project’s implementation and DO progress within a monitoring framework for the entire sector

Overall Risk

Mitigation Measures

GOY i s to undertake a quality assessment survey to examine the quality o f education data and data collection processes; TAs for this are under contracting through the BEDP.

The CSS, done once every five years, i s perhaps the most reliable o f all data collection methodologies. The project wi l l finance the CSS 2010 and the data i s expected to be available by 2012 to enable the measuring o f project success from a comparable baseline to be financed by BEDP in 2009/10.

Steps have been taken to fill these positions. Revised PMU salary guideline developed by the MoPIC and the Bank in 2007 are applied to all staff salaries. An international procurement advisor i s on board providing on the job training to all staff.

Criteria that were tested and successfully applied in BEEP have been applied to BEDP. Given the development of school mapping the targeting should be enhanced.

Civil service reform i s promoted by the GOY and supported by key partners. MOE top management wil l work with the Ministry o f Civil Service and Insurance and wil l build horizontal and vertical ownership o f the process through an extensive communication strategy. There will be extensive consultation and capacity building in an agreed time-frame.

The IMSC and the PAU wil l keep all concerned parties well informed o f progress and/or delays. Project plans wil l be discussed on a regular basis during IMSC meetings

MoE, PAU and development partners have developed a results framework identifying indicators for component 3 and more relevant indicators for measuring the project impact as opposed to sectoral progress.

Risk Rating

M

M

M

Page 13 of 51

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